Wall Street ends flat as investors shrug off China hike

NEW YORK | Mon Dec 27, 2010 4:50pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street erased earlier losses and ended little changed on Monday as investors shrugged off a surprise weekend interest rate hike from China's central bank.

In a quiet day for equities with no major economic data or corporate news, trading volume, which usually dips during the holiday season, was even lighter as a blizzard moved across the northeastern United States.
Financial stocks rose, in part boosted by a rally in American International Group shares, and helped the S&P 500 cut losses and turn positive in afternoon trade.

"The market is pretty much flat but we ended well off our lows and although we have no buyers stepping in, we have to give the bulls the victory seeing how the market turned around," said Ryan Detrick, technical analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research at Cincinnati, Ohio.
"Today is an exception but this week is typically considered the Santa Claus rally time and we expect that to resume later this week and end the year higher."
The Dow Jones industrial average settled down 20.73 points, or 0.18 percent, at 11,552.76. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 0.74 points, or 0.06 percent, at 1,257.51. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 4.25 points, or 0.16 percent, at 2,669.85.
Shares of AIG rose as much as nearly 12 percent as investors applauded the insurer's move to secure $4.3 billion in credit facilities.

The stock ended up 9.3 percent at $59.38. The S&P financial sector index gained nearly 1 percent.
But retail stocks were hit as the snowstorm on the heavily populated U.S. East Coast kept many shoppers away from malls just after Christmas, casting a pall on the final act of the holiday season. The weekend's blizzard conditions, which shut down airports and halted traffic, may also signal an end to shoppers' appetite in the next few months.

The S&P 500 retail index fell 0.3 percent, underperforming the wider market.
Among retailers, Nordstrom Inc shares fell 1.6 percent to $42.09 and RadioShack was down 0.1 percent at $18.47.
The CBOE Volatility Index jumped 7.3 percent to 17.67, only one session after closing at its lowest levels since July 2007.

The VIX "is beginning to price in the possibility of more volatile trading in early 2011," said Fred Ruffy, options strategist at WhatsTrading.com.
The VIX measures projected stock market volatility off of near-term S&P 500 index option prices and often moves inversely to the benchmark S&P.

China's central bank raised interest rates on Saturday for the second time in just over two months as it stepped up its battle to rein in stubbornly high inflation. The People's Bank of China said it will raise the benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to 5.81 percent and lift the benchmark deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent.

About 2 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, compared to the daily average of about 4.8 billion shares this year.
Trading in the options market was also thin, with 3.7 million calls and 2.6 million puts traded, or about half the daily average.
Advancing stocks slightly outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by 1,582 to 1,312, while on the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners 1,483 to 1,114.

China's Wen confident on inflation after rate rise

BEIJING | Sun Dec 26, 2010 6:09pm EST

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's government will be able to keep inflation in check, Premier Wen Jiabao said on Sunday, a day after the central bank raised interest rates, and he pledged to speed up efforts to rein in house price surges.

Steps taken in the past month, including administrative controls to curb speculation and monetary tightening, had started to produce results, Wen said.
The People's Bank of China raised interest rates on Christmas Day for a second time in just over two months as Beijing strengthened its battle against stubbornly high inflation.
Analysts said the latest rise showed that measures such as increasing banks' required reserve requirements to rein in liquidity were not enough on their own, and that the Chinese authorities were determined to keep inflation under control.

"We have raised reserve requirement ratio for six consecutive times and increased interest rates twice to absorb excess liquidity in the market to keep it at a reasonable level to support economic development," Wen said in a state radio broadcast a day after the rate rise.
"I believe we can keep prices at a reasonable level through our efforts. As a major leader of the government, I have the responsibility and I have the confidence, too," he said in remarks published on www.cnr.cn.
The rate rise came after Beijing said earlier in December it was switching to a "prudent" monetary policy, from its earlier "moderately loose" stance.
"The rate rise shows China is quickening its pace to normalize monetary policies," said Ba Shusong, a senior economist with the Development Research Center, under the State Council, the country's cabinet.
"The front-loaded tightening, before the peak of consumer inflation in the first half of 2011, is helpful to curb inflationary expectations," Ba was quoted as saying on the financial website www.caing.com.

AHEAD OF THE CURVE

Chinese authorities have repeatedly stressed the importance of staying ahead of the curve in the battle against inflation.
"Inflationary expectation is worse than inflation itself," Wen said in the radio broadcast.
"When there is inflation, we must establish confidence, know our vantage points and take forceful and decisive measures in a timely manner to curb price rises."
The central bank said on Friday it would deploy a range of measures to head off inflationary pressures and asset bubbles.

China also intensified its property tightening measures in April and September in an attempt to brake soaring property prices.
"Until now, the measures are not implemented well enough, and we will reinforce our efforts in two ways," Wen said.
The government plans to build 10 million units of affordable housing in 2011, up from this year's target of 5.8 million.

China will also increase efforts to curb speculation in the real estate market, mainly through monetary policies and stricter use of land, Wen said, without giving details.
Property transactions as well as land costs, a major contributor to high housing prices, have shown signs of a rebound in recent weeks, triggering concerns of more tightening.
Despite all the challenges, Wen said: "I believe property prices will return to reasonable levels through our efforts. I have the confidence."

Chinese stock markets have shed nearly 10 percent since mid-November on concerns the government would ratchet up its monetary policy tightening in the face of rising inflation.
However, analysts suggested China's share market could push higher on Monday on optimism about the overall outlook for shares in 2011.

Gold slips nearly 1 percent on China's interest rate hike

SINGAPORE | Sun Dec 26, 2010 7:40pm EST

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Spot gold fell nearly one percent on Monday, and other precious metals also declined, after China raised interest rates over the weekend.

On Saturday China's central bank raised interest rates for the second time in just over two months, underscoring concerns that inflation may be entrenched and swift action is needed to get price pressure under control.

Spot gold fell to a one-week low of $1,371.1, before recovering to $1,373.35 an ounce by 7:04 p.m. EST GMT, down 0.8 percent from the previous close.
U.S. gold futures shed 0.4 percent to $1,374.4.
Spot silver fell 1.4 percent to $28.81, and touched a one-week low of $28.75.
Spot platinum declined one percent to $1,706, and spot palladium also fell one percent to $745.5.
China's rate hike is likely to weigh on commodity market on Monday. Commodities have been riding on inflation anticipation in China, a key market for nearly all commodities.
The dollar edged up against a basket of currencies in early trade on Monday.

PRICES
Precious metals prices at 0004 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pct chg Turnover
Spot Gold 1373.35 -10.90 -0.79 25.34
Spot Silver 28.81 -0.40 -1.37 71.18
Spot Platinum 1706.00 -16.50 -0.96 16.29
Spot Palladium 745.50 -7.50 -1.00 83.85
TOCOM Gold 3674.00 -34.00 -0.92 12.73 12674
TOCOM Platinum 4620.00 -63.00 -1.35 5.46 3160
TOCOM Silver 77.00 -1.30 -1.66 48.94 329
TOCOM Palladium 2007.00 -28.00 -1.38 72.27 255
Euro/Dollar 1.3082
Dollar/Yen 82.91
TOCOM prices in yen per gram. Spot prices in $ per ounce.

Nikkei edges higher, China rate hike taken in stride

TOKYO | Sun Dec 26, 2010 7:22pm EST
 

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average edged 0.3 percent higher on Monday with increased appetite toward global equities in recent weeks lending support and helping offset any concerns from China's raising of interest rates on the weekend.
The benchmark Nikkei rose 0.3 percent or 32.55 points to 10,310.85.
The broader Topix index was 0.1 percent higher at 902.52.

Stocks, oil rise in festive cheer

PARIS | Sat Dec 25, 2010 5:07pm EST

PARIS (Reuters) - World stocks held near the previous day's two-year high on Friday while oil hit fresh two-year peaks after strong U.S. data this week encouraged investors to maintain their risk positions into 2011.

Thursday's U.S. data showing that demand for a range of long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods surged in November and consumer spending rose for a fifth straight month reinforced expectations for strong economic growth in the fourth quarter.

"We've had a good run, helped by quantitative easing and better economic data," said Bernard McAlinden, investment strategist at NCB Stockbrokers in Dublin. "We've broken out of ranges, and it can go higher in 2011."

The MSCI world equity index .MIWD00000PUS edged higher to just below Thursday's peak, which was its highest since September 2008, set just before the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

The index is up 9.6 percent this year.

Fund tracker EPFR said investor focus shifted from bonds to equities in the final weeks of 2010, with equity funds globally taking in a net $4.5 billion for the week ending December 22. Bond funds saw redemptions totaling $2.3 billion.

The Thomson Reuters global stock index .TRXFLDGLPU dipped slightly, but the FTSEurofirst 300 index .FTEU3 rose about 0.1 percent.
Ratings agency Fitch downgraded Portugal on Thursday, citing burgeoning debt levels and a tough financing environment, a move analysts said was largely expected by investors.
The downgrade puts Fitch's rating for Portugal on a par with Moody's A1 rating, but still two notches above that of Standard and Poor's A-minus.
Trading was very light, with markets closed in Germany, Italy, Spain, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Greece, Austria, Hungary, and Iceland. U.S. markets were also closed to observe the Christmas holiday.

Emerging market stocks .MSCIEF fell slightly.

U.S. crude oil rose more than 1 percent to $91.41 a barrel as unusually cold weather fueled demand and depleted supplies.
Snow and more frigid temperatures were predicted in parts of Europe over the weekend, threatening to prolong chaos at airlines and rail networks and further boost fuel demand.
The bund future fell 32 ticks.
The U.S. dollar .DXY fell less than 0.1 percent against a basket of major currencies, while the euro was mostly unchanged at $1.3114.

Headline News 23.12.10

AS & GLOBAL :
 
• Bursa Wall Street berhasil menguat pada sesi Rabu 22 Desember, ditopang kenaikan indeks S&P500 kelevel tertinggi sejak akhir 2008 silam terdorong
penguatan saham‐saham perbankan yang performanya mandek selama Desember. Secara umum penguatan bursa terdorong naiknya optimisme
mengenai pertumbuhan ekonomi AS ditengah krisis hutang yang melanda Uni‐Eropa. Saham‐saham sektor perbankan ‐ yang menjadi episentrum
krisis kredit dua tahun yang lalu ‐ mempimpin kenaikan indeks hingga akhir tahun 2010. Indeks Dow Jones naik 26,33 poin atau 0,23% ke 11,559.49,
indeks S&P500 naik 4,24 poin atau 0,34% ke 1,258.84 dan indeks Nasdaq naik tipis 3,87 poin atau 0,15% ke 2,671.48.
 
• Euro kembali anjlok kelevel terendah sepanjang sejarah terhadap Swiss franc ke 1.2435, atau turun 16% sepanjang 2010 menyusul krisis hutang di
kawasan Uni‐Eropa yang berimbas pada meningkatnya status safe haven pada Swiss franc. Namun demikian, euro justru sempat menguat ke 1.3181
terhadap dollar AS setelah adanya rumor bahwa pemerintah Cina tengah menjajaki kemungkinan pembelian obligasi Portugis dalam jumlah yang
cukup signifikan. Pemerintah Beijing diperkirakan akan melakukan pembelian obligasi Portugis senilai antara 4 hingga 5 miliar euro untuk membantu
tekanan yang melanda Portugis akhir‐akhir ini. Turut mendukung performa euro antara lain adalah data GDP Q3 Amerika yang mengalami revisi naik
menjadi 2.6% meskipun masih lebih rendah dari perkiraan 2.8%. Terhadap yen, euro tercatat anjlok 0.3% ke 109.42, dan dollar AS turun 0.3% ke
83.54 yen, sementara Sterling anjlok 0.5% ke level terendah sejak 3‐bulan terakhir terhadap dollar AS.
 
• Departemen Perdagangan AS melaporkan kenaikan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 2,6% pada kuartal ketiga melebihi estimasi sebelumnya 2,5%.
Para ekonom memprediksi produk domestik bruto AS akan menguat menjadi 3 hingga 3,5% pada kuartal keempat 2010. Sementara itu dalam
laporan terpisah, National Association of Realtors menyatakan penjualan existing home naik 5,6% pada November menjadi sebanyak 4,68 juta unit.
 
• Harga emas dunia ditutup melemah tipis terpengaruh pelemahan euro terhadap dollar AS dalam sesi perdagangan yang tipis menjelang libur akhir
tahun. Mencuatnya kekhawatiran pada krisis hutang Uni‐Eropa akibat serangkaian downgrade lembaga pemeringkat dunia pada beberapa negara di
kawasan Uni‐Eropa telah mendukung permintaan pada aset berstatus safe haven. Harga spot emas <XAU=> tawaran pada $ 1,384.95 USD per ounce.
 
• Harga minyak dunia melonjak di atas 90 USD per barel ditutup dilevel tertinggi sejak 26‐bulan terakhir menyusul turunnya laporan cadangan minyak
mentah AS dan didukung cuaca dingin yang menaikkan permintaan pada produk turunan minyak menjelang liburan akhir tahun. Minyak mentah AS
untuk pengiriman Februari <CLc1> naik 66 sen ke 90,48 USD per barel.

Senate approves nuclear arms treaty with Russia

WASHINGTON | Wed Dec 22, 2010 6:52pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Senate approved a landmark nuclear arms control treaty with Russia on Wednesday, giving President Barack Obama a major foreign policy victory in his drive to improve ties with Moscow and curb the spread of atomic weapons to other nations.

The Senate voted 71-26 in favor of the New START treaty between the former Cold War foes after a contentious debate with Republican leaders that threatened traditional bipartisanship on security affairs.
"This treaty will enhance our leadership to stop the spread of nuclear weapons and seek the peace of a world without them," Obama told a news conference after the vote, praising the bipartisan nature of the final result.
The vote was an endorsement of Obama's efforts to improve relations with Russia and curb the pursuit of nuclear weapons by countries like North Korea and Iran.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the process was "a new gold standard for concluding agreements of this kind."
"Not only does the treaty facilitate a strengthening of the security of Russia and the USA but it will also have a positive effect on international stability and security in general," Lavrov told the Interfax news agency.

The Russian parliament has yet to approve the treaty -- signed by Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in April -- but the Kremlin-backed United Russia party is dominant, so ratification there is all but assured.
Still, Russian lawmakers will review the terms in the U.S. Senate's resolution of ratification.

"Taking into account the amendments added by senators, we are forced to undertake a deep and thorough analysis of the text ... since we are speaking about the national security of our country," Leonid Slutsky, deputy chair of parliament's international affairs committee, told Interfax.
Senator John Kerry, who led the debate as chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, said the treaty was a message to Iran and North Korea "that the international community remains united to restrain the nuclear ambitions of countries that operate outside the law."

"We send a message that the two countries that possess 90 percent of the world's nuclear weapons are fulfilling their obligations to reduce their arsenals in a responsible manner," Kerry said.
The treaty will cut long-range, strategic nuclear weapons deployed by Russia and the United States to no more than 1,550 on each side within seven years. Deployed missile launchers will be cut to no more than 700 on each side.
The agreement also creates an inspection and verification process to replace the one that expired nearly a year ago with the end of the original START accord.

The new treaty has wide support in military and diplomatic circles. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said it would make a "significant contribution" to regional security and U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said it was a "clear message" supporting nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation.

U.S. CREDIBILITY AT STAKE
 Passage of the treaty with support from 13 Republicans was a big victory for Obama just weeks after his Democrats lost control of the House of Representatives and narrowly retained control of the Senate in the November 2 congressional elections.

Republican senators had sought to amend the treaty this week to allow for more inspections, more deployed missiles and to force talks on tactical nuclear weapons. But Democrats, who still control the chamber 58-42 until the new Congress sits in January, easily defeated the amendments.
Kerry said Senate approval was critical for sustaining Obama's credibility with fellow world leaders and supporting his ability to advance the U.S. agenda.

Officials in the Obama administration have said passage of the New START treaty was a prerequisite for turning to other arms control issues such as reducing tactical nuclear weapons.
But Jon Kyl, the second-ranking Republican in the Senate and an opponent of New START, said he would fight any effort to revive the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.

"This may be the last arms control agreement for a while," Kyl said. "I think we can get back to focusing on the real issues -- issues of proliferation, terrorism and dealing with threats from countries like North Korea and Iran."
Arms control experts disagreed, hailing the treaty as a step in the right direction.
Steven Pifer, director of the Arms Control Initiative at the Brookings think tank, said failure of the treaty would have undercut Obama on the world stage.

"Virtually all the NATO allies came out and endorsed this treaty," he said. "And had the Obama administration not been able to deliver its ratification, I think that it would have really been a blow to the credibility and authority of the president when he was engaging overseas."

While the treaty will not cause Iran or North Korea to alter their behavior, Pifer said, "it does give the administration a greater authority with other countries to up the pressure on North Korea and Iran."

Daryl Kimball, director of the nonpartisan Arms Control Association, said the treaty "does augur well for the Senate's pursuing further fact-based, adult conversations about nuclear security issues and I'm optimistic about the prospects for building upon this bipartisan consensus."

Headline News 22.12.10

AS & GLOBAL :
 
• Bursa saham AS menguat ditopang membaiknya sebagian laporan earning korporasi dan aktifitas merjer yang menopang stabilnya tren naik,
memperkuat optimisme investor untuk tahun mendatang. Indeks S&P500 mencapai level tertinggi dalam 2‐tahun terakhir, indeks telah
menguat 6,3% selama Desember dan naik 12,5% selama 2010. Sektor keuangan memimpin penguatan bursa saham setelah berperforma
buruk sepanjang tahun. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 55,03 poin atau 0,48% ke 11,533.16, indeks S&P <. SPX> naik 7,52 poin atau 0,60% ke
1,254.60 sementara Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 18,05 poin atau 0,68% ke 2,667.61.
 
• Euro melemah terhadap dollar AS menyusul naiknya kekhawatiran akan downgrade lanjutan dari lembaga pemeringkat terkemuka dunia
terhadap negara‐negara kawasan Uni‐Eropa yang tengah mengalami krisis hutang. Kekhawatiran tersebut kemudian menurunkan minat
investor pada euro menjelang akhir tahun. Setelah sebelumnya Moody's memperingatkan kemungkinan downgrade peringkat kredit
Portugis, kini Fitch Ratings mengatakan pihaknya akan memangkas peringkat valuta asing Yunani, hal tersebut memupus komentar
supportive untuk euro dari pemerintah Cina. Sebelumnya, euro sempat menguat terhadap dollar AS terdongkrak pernyataan dari Wakil
Perdana Menteri Cina – Wang Qishan yang mengungkapkan dukungannya terhadap langkah petinggi Uni‐Eropa dalam menangani krisis
finansial kawasan tersebut. Pernyataan pemerintah Cina tersebut menyiratkan salah satu upaya Beijing guna menahan berlanjutnya
pelemahan euro lebih lanjut, Cina tercatat memiliki aset berdenominasi euro senilai 2.65 triliun dollar AS. Komentar tersebut sebelumnya
sempat menyokong penguatan euro hingga diatas level 1,32.
 
• Euro diperkirakan akan berlanjut melemah hingga dibawah level 1.3 dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Euro turun 0,2% kelevel 1,3097
<EUR=>. Sementara itu dollar AS tercatat stagnan terhadap yen di 83,74 yen <JPY=> namun tercatat melemah 0,6% terhadap Swiss franc
<CHF=> ke 0.9587. Euro anjlok kelevel terendah sepanjang sejarah terhadap Swiss franc di 1.2540.
 
• Harga emas dunia kembali menguat pada sesi Selasa 21 Desember menyusul kekhawatiran pada sejumlah kemungkinan downgrade
terhadap beberapa negara Uni‐Eropa yang masih mengalami krisis finansial, kondisi mana kemudian meningkatkan minat investor pada
emas sebagai instrumen investasi yang lebih aman. Para pengamat memprediksi emas akan bergerak dalam kisaran 1.360 USD hingga 1.400
USD per troy ounce hingga akhir tahun 2010, dimana diperkirakan aksi ambil untung institusi keuangan dan perbankan akan marak
menjelang akhir tahun. Harga spot emas <XAU=> tercatat naik tipis ke 1,384.75 USD per ounce.
 
• Naik tajamnya harga gasoline futures kelevel tertinggi sejak 6‐bulan terakhir berhasil menopang kenaikan harga minyak mentah dunia yang
juga ditopang dari meningkatnya ekspektasi pertumbuhan ekonomi yang akan meningkatkan permintaan. Minyak mentah AS untuk
pengiriman Februari <CLc1> naik 40 sen menjadi 89,97 USD per barel.

Arms treaty with Russia nears Senate approval

WASHINGTON | Tue Dec 21, 2010 6:56pm EST

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's strategic nuclear arms treaty with Russia secured enough votes to clear a Republican procedural hurdle on Tuesday and headed toward approval in the Senate this week.

A motion to limit further debate on the treaty passed with 67 votes, the same number needed to secure Senate approval. A final vote on the accord was set for Wednesday after lawmakers debate a rash of last-minute amendments.

"This treaty will make America safer and restore our leadership in global efforts to stop nuclear proliferation," Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid said.
But Senator John Kerry, who led the floor debate as chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, cautioned: "This is not over. We have to count every vote."
At least 12 Republicans have said that they will vote with Democrats to approve the pact, which would give Obama his third major victory on Capitol Hill in less than a week.
He earlier won repeal of the U.S. ban on gays serving openly in the military and passage of an $858 billion deal with Republicans to extend expiring tax cuts and spur economic growth.
The treaty, which would cut strategic atomic weapons deployed by each country to no more than 1,550 within seven years, was signed by Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in April.
It is a centerpiece of Obama's bid to "re-set" relations with Russia, which has been increasingly cooperative on issues related to U.S. national security, from curbing Iran's nuclear program to the war in Afghanistan.
Republican opponents of the accord, angered by the their inability to stop the march toward passage, charged the Obama administration had negotiated a bad treaty that let Russia limit U.S. missile defense options when the real strategic threat was not Moscow but states like North Korea and Iran.
"Nothing that he has done has convinced me that he is committed to missile defense," Senator Lindsey Graham told a news conference, saying Obama was effectively "giving the Russians a veto" over its missile defense plans.

The Senate's top two Republicans -- Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Minority Whip Jon Kyl -- have announced they will vote against START, saying lawmakers haven't had enough time to fully consider the treaty.
But the chamber's third-ranking Republican, Lamar Alexander, joined Democrats on Tuesday in agreeing to end debate and move to approval of the pact.
"I will vote to ratify the New Start Treaty ... because it leaves our country with enough nuclear warheads to blow any attacker to kingdom come, and because the president has committed to an $85 billion, 10-year plan to make sure that those weapons work," Alexander declared in a Senate speech.
Alexander's state of Tennessee is home to one of the nuclear facilities that will receive billions of dollars in modernization funding under an agreement worked out between lawmakers and the White House.
Political analysts say Senate rejection of the treaty would be a major setback to warming ties between the Russia and the United States, giving ammunition to Russian hawks who oppose the thaw in relations with Washington.

Collapse of the pact would also inflict political damage on Medvedev, who has embraced Obama's efforts to improve relations and stepped up Russian support for U.S. efforts to rein in Iran's nuclear program.
There has been far less public or political debate over the treaty in Russia. The Russian State Duma has yet to approve the accord and Medvedev has made clear that parliament should not ratify the treaty until U.S. Senate approval is certain.
Konstantin Kosachyov, the pro-Kremlin chairman of the international affairs committee, said Russian lawmakers would carefully examine the U.S. Senate's resolution of ratification and other declarations before proceeding with their own vote, which could conceivably be held this year.

Headline News 21.12.10

AS & GLOBAL :
 
• Bursa saham AS berhasil melanjutkan penguatan akhir tahunnya dimana kemudian mendorong S&P500 mencapai level tertinggi dalam
kurun 2‐tahun terakhir, menguatkan optimisme investor bahwa indeks masih akan berlanjut menguat hingga awal 2011 mendatang. Volume
perdagangan masih tipis, seperti yang telah diperkirakan sebelumnya akan terjadi secara tradisional menjelang akhir tahun. Investor
cenderung mengambil posisi aman dengan bertahan pada saham‐saham sektor‐sektor yang telah memimpin rally tajam selama Desember,
diantaranya termasuk sektor keuangan, energi dan material. Indeks S&P500 tercatat telah menguat 5,7% selama Desember dan menguat
11,8% selama 2010. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> justru turun 13,78 poin atau 0,12% ke 11,478.13, indeks S&P500 <. SPX> naik 3,17 poin atau
0,25% ke 1,247.08 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 6,59 poin atau 0,25% ke 2,649.56.
 
• Euro melemah kelevel terendahnya dalam kurun 2‐pekan terakhir terhadap dollar AS, anjlok kelevel terendah sepanjang sejarah terhadap
Swiss franc dan Aussie dollar dimana para pelaku pasar masih menyimpan kekhawatiran mendalam mengenai kondisi krisis finansial
kawasan Uni‐Eropa setelah pertemuan petinggi Uni‐Eropa pekan lalu gagal menghasilkan langkah yang lebih agresif guna menanggulangi
krisis obligasi yang melanda kawasan tersebut, yang kemudian ditambah dengan downgrade Moody’s terhadap peringkat kredit Irlandia.
Pada Senin 20 Desember, Moody’s Ratings bahkan menyatakan kemungkinan pihaknya akan menurunkan peringkat kredit beberapa
perbankan di Spanyol, kondisi mana semakin menurunkan minat investor pada euro.
 
• Euro melemah hingga level 1.2636 terhadap Swiss franc yang merupakan level terendah sejak mata uang tunggal Uni‐Eropa tersebut
diluncurkan pada 1999 silam, sementara kinerja Swiss franc justru ditopang maraknya aksi safe haven buying yang mendominasi
perdagangan akhir tahun dimana investor cenderung mengambil posisi aman. Euro anjlok 0.5% terhadap dollar AS ke level 1.3119 setelah
sempat anjlok kelevel 1.3096 yang merupakan level terendah sejak 02 Desember. Sementara itu dollar AS turun 02% terhadap yen kelevel
83.75 yen.
 
• Harga emas dunia menguat ditengah kembali naiknya minat investor terhadap aset berstatus safe haven terdorong berita dari ECB yang
mengeluarkan peringatan tentang kondisi keuangan kawasan Uni‐Eropa dan lembaga pemeringkat Moody's yang mengatakan kemungkinan
akan memangkas peringkat utang beberapa bank di Spanyol. Ketegangan di semenanjung Korea juga memberi dukungan pada kinerja emas
sehubungan latihan perang yang diselenggarakan pihak Korea Selatan di pulau yang menjadi sengketa dengan Korea Utara. Harga spot emas
<XAU=> naik 0,6% kelevel 1,384.10 USD per troy ounce.
 
• Harga minyak naik dalam dua sesi berturut‐turut, terangkat naiknya harga gasoline futures menjelang liburan dan tingginya permintaan yang
disebabkan oleh cuaca dingin, yang juga turut mendukung kenaikan harga heating oil futures. Volume perdagangan masih tipis dan
perdagangan diwarnai aksi choppy trading investor. Kontrak minyak mentah AS untuk Januari yang telah berakhir pada sesi Senin 20
Desember ini tidak berhasil menembus diatas level 90 USD per barel, setelah sebelumnya sempat mencapai level tertinggi 26‐bulan di 90,76
USD per barel pada tanggal 7 Desember silam. Investor cenderung mengesampingkan penguatan dollar AS terhadap mata uang utama dunia
lainnya ditengah berlanjutnya kekhawatiran pada kondisi utang zona euro. Minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Februari <CLG1> naik 77
sen menjadi 89,37 USD per barel. Salju dan suhu dingin yang ekstrim menyebabkan gangguan di seluruh Eropa utara selama 3‐hari terakhir,
cuaca buruk tersebut diperkirakan akan berlanjut hingga sepekan mendatang.
 
• Outlook (Selasa, 21/Des./2010): Bursa saham Asia diperkirakan akan dibuka menguat pada sesi Selasa 21 Desember, seiring tren penguatan
bursa saham global menjelang akhir tahun yang didukung penguatan harga saham‐saham logam dan sektor keuangan di bursa Wall Street.
“Ancaman” lembaga pemeringkat Moody’s untuk memangkas peringkat hutang beberapa perbankan di Spanyol diperkirakan masih akan
menekan performa euro pada sesi ini.

SEC probing Hurd inside-info claims: report

SAN FRANCISCO | Mon Dec 20, 2010 7:37pm EST
 

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - The Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating claims that former Hewlett Packard CEO Mark Hurd shared inside information about the company's then-pending acquisition of EDS Corp, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.
 
HP bought Electronic Data Systems for more than $13 billion in 2008. The SEC is looking into the claims as part of a broader inquiry into the circumstances surrounding Hurd's resignation, the Journal cited people familiar with the matter as saying. Hurd's exit in August stunned Wall Street and walloped the company's stock.
Now an Oracle co-president, HP's former chief left abruptly under a cloud of sexual harassment accusations, which were later declared without merit by the company's board.
HP and Hurd declined immediate comment. The SEC was not immediately available for comment.

Headline News 20.12.10

AS & GLOBAL :
 
• Sampai dengan akhir pekan lalu, bursa saham AS ditutup mendekati level tertinggi multi‐tahunannya. Meskipun demikian diperkirakan
kenaikan lebih lanjut dalam dua pekan mendatang nampaknya akan lebih berat dimana pasar secara tradisional sangat sepi. Indeks Dow
Jones <. DJI> turun 7,34 poin atau 0,06% ke 11,491.91, indeks S&P <. SPX> naik 1,03 poin atau 0,08% ke 1,243.90 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik
5,66 poin atau 0,21% ke 2,642.97.
 
• Euro kemungkinan masih akan mengalami tekanan dalam sepekan mendatang seiring masih berlanjutnya kekhawatiran pelaku pasar pada
krisis hutang dikawasan Uni‐Eropa. Oleh beberapa institusi keuangan terkemuka, investor disarankan untuk melepas kepemilikannya
terhadap euro hingga awal 2011. Lembaga pemeringkat Moody's memangkas peringkat kredit Irlandia hingga 5‐derajat (menjadi hanya 3
level diatas “junk”), kondisi tersebut ditambah dengan adanya peringatan perihal anggaran oleh Dana Moneter Internasional pada Irlandia
yang turut membebani kinerja mata uang tunggal Uni‐Eropa tersebut. Kesepakatan antara pemimpin Uni Eropa untuk mendirikan sebuah
mekanisme penyelesaian permanen mulai pertengahan 2013 tidak cukup untuk meredakan kekhawatiran pelaku pasar. Investor berharap
adanya solusi yang lebih agresif untuk mengatasi krisis fiskal di kawasan Uni‐Eropa seperti dengan meningkatkan jumlah dana dalam the
European Financial Stability Facility atau menerbitkan obligasi bersama Eropa.
 
• Pada sesi Jumat 17 Desember, euro turun kelevel terendah dalam kurun 2‐pekan terakhir terhadap dollar AS di 1,3133 <EUR=EBS> dan
tercatat melemah 0.4% ke 1,3181. Selama sepekan terakhir, euro tercatat melemah 0.1%, dan sepanjang Desember telah merosot 1.5%.
Didukung oleh lemahnya euro, dolar AS menguat 0.26 terhadap mata uang utama dunia <DXY.> ke 80,392. Sementara terhadap yen Jepang,
dolar AS <JPY=> turun 0,1% ke 83,96 yen.
 
• Harga emas berbalik menguat pada Jumat akhir pekan lalu terdorong kembalinya minat investor pada aset berstatus safe haven dipengaruhi
downgrade lembaga pemeringkat Moody's pada peringkat kredit Irlandia yang menekan aset beresiko. Harga spot emas <XAU=> berakhir di
kisaran 1,376.40 USD per troy ounce.
 
• Harga minyak dunia menguat pada akhir pekan lalu, ditengah sesi perdagangan yang sepi. Penguatan minyak ditopang membaiknya data
ekonomi AS dan menguatnya harga gasoline futures yang berkombinasi dengan anjloknya dollar AS di tengah kekhawatiran baru tentang
masalah utang zona euro. Minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Januari <CLc1> naik 32 sen ke 88,02 USD per barel. Dalam sepekan terakhir,
harga minyak tercatat naik 23 sen atau 0,26%, menjelang berakhirnya kontrak bulan Januari pada hari Senin 20 Desember dan setelah
membukukan kerugian 1,57% pada pekan sebelumnya.

• Outlook (Senin, 20/Des./2010): Bursa saham Asia diperkirakan masih akan dibuka menguat seiring sesi perdagangan Wall Street yang
ditutup beragam pada akhir pekan lalu, namun masih menyiratkan optimisme akan pemulihan ekonomi Amerika Serikat. Dari Amerika,
terdapat beberapa rilis data pada sepekan kedepan dimana secara umum data‐data tersebut masih akan menguatkan pandangan mengenai
keberlangsungan pertumbuhan ekonomi AS meskipun dalam percepatan yang sedang. Data durable goods orders dan personal
income/consumption untuk November akan membantu investor memperkirakan seberapa besar pertumbuhan ekonomi selama kuartal
keempat. CIBC World Markets akhir‐akhir ini menaikkan estimasi GDP Q4 AS menjadi 3%.

Seoul to go ahead with drills despite threats of war

YEONPYEONG, South Korea | Sun Dec 19, 2010 8:30pm EST
  (Reuters) - Korea Selatan akan melanjutkan dengan latihan menembak langsung dari sebuah pulau yang disengketakan pada hari Senin, media lokal mengatakan, walaupun ancaman serangan oleh Pyongyang dan tekanan dari Rusia dan Cina untuk membatalkan latihan.

Para latihan ditunda dari akhir pekan oleh cuaca buruk, memberikan waktu untuk melakukan pertemuan darurat Dewan Keamanan PBB untuk mencoba menenangkan ketegangan. Tetapi pertemuan berakhir tanpa kesepakatan setelah lebih dari delapan jam pembicaraan, dengan lima kekuatan besar split pada apakah untuk publik menyalahkan Korea Utara untuk krisis.

Pertemuan dapat melanjutkan pada hari Senin tetapi Susan Rice, Duta Besar AS untuk PBB, mengatakan perbedaan pendapat antara negara-negara besar itu "tidak mungkin dijembatani."
Terakhir kali dilakukan latihan menembak Seoul hidup dari Yeonpyeong dekat perbatasan maritim yang disengketakan di lepas pantai barat semenanjung, Pyongyang dikupas pulau itu, menewaskan dua warga sipil dan dua marinir dalam serangan terburuk di wilayah Korea Selatan sejak perang Korea berakhir pada tahun 1953 .
Korea Utara memperingatkan pekan lalu bahwa ia akan menyerang lebih keras lagi jika latihan terbaru terus berjalan. Cina dan Rusia telah mengatakan latihan ini tidak boleh pergi ke depan, sementara Amerika Serikat telah mendukung hak Korea Selatan untuk terus latihan.

Ketegangan memukul pasar Korea ketika mereka dibuka pada hari Senin, dengan memenangkan jatuh lebih dari satu persen menjadi empat minggu rendah terhadap dolar dan saham juga turun satu persen.
Pyongyang telah meningkatkan peringatan untuk unit artileri di sepanjang pantai barat, kantor berita Yonhap mengatakan, mengutip sumber pemerintah Korea Selatan.
Marinir pada Yeonpyeong memerintahkan penduduk ke bunker serangan udara menjelang awal diharapkan bor. Korea TV mengatakan penduduk pulau-pulau terdekat juga diperintahkan untuk berlindung.

Kedua belah pihak mengatakan mereka akan menggunakan kekerasan untuk membela apa yang mereka katakan adalah wilayah mereka di lepas pantai barat, meningkatkan keprihatinan internasional bahwa kebuntuan itu bisa cepat lepas kendali.
Ke-15 Dewan Keamanan telah bertemu di balik pintu tertutup untuk mencoba menyepakati pernyataan bahwa Rusia Duta Besar PBB Vitaly Churkin mengatakan ia berharap akan mengirim "sinyal menahan" baik Utara dan Selatan.
utusan Barat dalam pertemuan tersebut mengatakan lima anggota pemegang hak veto permanen terbagi atas apakah akan menyalahkan Korea Utara untuk krisis, seperti Amerika Serikat, Inggris, dan Perancis - bersama dengan Jepang - permintaan, atau untuk mendesak kedua belah pihak untuk menghindari tindakan yang dapat memperdalam krisis, seperti Rusia dan Cina inginkan.
Cina, Korea Utara pendukung setia di dewan, dan Rusia menolak gagasan penempatan menyalahkan ke Pyongyang, para utusan kepada Reuters pada kondisi anonimitas.
AS, Inggris dan delegasi Prancis menolak rancangan Rusia yang menyerukan PBB moon Sekretaris Jenderal Ban Ki-untuk mengirim utusan ke Seoul dan Pyongyang dan mendesak kedua pihak untuk latihan "menahan diri maksimum."
Rusia dan Cina kemudian merevisi teks untuk membuatnya lebih bisa diterima oleh kekuatan Barat, tapi ini tidak cukup untuk memenangkan kesepakatan.

AS dan para pejabat China telah menggambarkan situasi di semenanjung itu sebagai "sangat berbahaya" dan "mudah terbakar."Sekretariat PBB dibagikan kepada anggota dewan dokumen pada suatu penelitian dari November 23 penembakan oleh Komando PBB yang disebut, pasukan militer pimpinan Amerika di Korea Selatan yang memantau sesuai dengan Perjanjian Gencatan Senjata 1953 yang mengakhiri Perang Korea.
probe itu menyimpulkan Selatan tidak melanggar gencatan senjata dengan 23 perusahaan latihan November militer di perairan yang disengketakan, sedangkan Utara melakukan "serangan sengaja dan direncanakan" itu adalah "pelanggaran serius" terhadap gencatan senjata, menurut dokumen, yang diperoleh oleh Reuters.

Korea Utara menyebut latihan kebakaran artileri oleh Selatan langkah perang bunuh diri yang akan memicu konflik habis-habisan di semenanjung itu dan mengatakan akan menyerang kembali membela diri.
Selatan mengatakan jika diserang dalam cara yang sama seperti bulan lalu, akan memukul kembali keras dengan kekuatan udara dan pengeboman.

Para analis yang skeptis Utara akan melaksanakan dengan ancaman tersebut. Utara kemungkinan akan merespon dengan mengadakan latihan live-api pada sisinya dari perbatasan laut yang dijaga tegang jika Selatan berjalan maju dengan eksekusinya, kata mereka.
Seoul muncul bertekad untuk pergi ke depan, ingin menghindari mengulangi kritik domestik pada bulan November untuk dirasakan lemah respon terhadap penembakan terhadap Yeonpyeong.
marinir Korea Selatan merencanakan untuk menguji penembakan artileri dari pulau menargetkan perairan teritorial menjadi barat daya yang, sama jenis latihan yang menyebabkan pertukaran bulan lalu api.

Kepedulian dipasang di pulau antara beberapa warga yang tetap.
"Saya melihat mereka harus melakukan apa yang harus mereka lakukan, tapi orang di sini ingin damai dan tenang," kata Dan Choon-nam setelah kebaktian menangis pada hari Minggu. "Kami ingin semuanya kembali ke bagaimana mereka."

Headline News 17.12.10

AS & GLOBAL :

• Bursa saham AS ditutup menguat terdongkrak outlook positif dari FedEx mengenai proyeksi laba perusahaan tersebut yang kemudian berdampak
positif pada kinerja saham lainnya. Saham‐saham yang berperforma baik dalam kurun 2010 menjadi top gainers pada perdagangan Kamis 16
Desember seiring ekspektasi investor bahwa saham‐saham tersebut akan melanjutkan penguatannya ditahun mendatang. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI>
naik 41,78 poin atau 0,36% ke 11,499.25, indeks S&P500 <. SPX> naik 7,64 poin atau 0,62% ke 1,242.87, sementara Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 20,09 poin
atau 0,77% ke 2,637.31. Data ekonomi AS semakin menambah sentimen positif, dimana aktifitas pabrik di wilayah mid‐Atlantik secara tidak terduga
meningkat di bulan Desember, sementara klaim pengangguran kembali turun. Harga perumahan mulai naik pada November, tapi izin untuk
konstruksi rumah di masa yang akan datang turun ke level terendah dalam kurun 1‐1/2 tahun terakhir.
 
• Harga emas dunia sempat turun lebih dari 1% akibat aksi ambil untung investor dan ara pergerakan euro yang masih belum jelas dalam jangka
pendek mendatang seiring masih kuatnya kekhawatiran pada krisis utang zona euro. Harga spot emas <XAU=> ditutup melemah 0.6% 1,370.99 USD
per troy ounce. Di India dilaporkan bahwa aksi beli emas menjelang akhir musim pernikahan tradisional mulai menurun, pembeli juga mengabaikan
dampak dari penguatan rupee yang membuat harga emas dalam dolar lebih murah di India.
 
• Harga minyak turun lebih dari 1% karena aksi penyesuaian pembukuan yang dilakukan investor menjelang akhir tahun yang didukung masih adanya
kekhawatiran pada prospek ekonomi meskipun data ekonomi AS dirilis menguat. Minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Januari <CLc1> melemah 92
sen di 87,70 USD per barel. Kontrak tersebut akan berakhir pada hari Senin 20 Desember, faktor yang turut memberikan tekanan jual.
 
• Euro sempat menguat terhadap dollar AS meskipun masih rentan terhadap tekanan jual setelah kesepakatan antara para pemimpin Uni‐Eropa dalam
mekanisme manajemen krisis tetap gagal untuk menenangkan kekhawatiran pelaku pasar akan menyebarnya krisis utang di kawasan tersebut. Para
pemimpin Uni Eropa sepakat untuk membuat perubahan kecil terhadap perjanjian kelompok yang mengatur untuk membentuk suatu mekanisme
permanen mulai dari pertengahan 2013 untuk menyelesaikan masalah utang. Draf pernyataan tersebut akan dirilis pada akhir pertemuan puncak dua
hari, pemimpin zona euro akan menyatakan kesiapan mereka untuk memastikan dana yang memadai tersedia untuk dana penyelamatan zona euro,
European Financial Stabilitas Facility (EFSF).

• Namun analis memperkirakan euro akan tetap berada di bawah tekanan dimana pemangku kebijakan Eropa masih terlihat terpecah untuk
menjalankan langkah‐langkah konkrit lebih lanjut, contohnya dalam menyediakan dana tambahan bagi operasional the European Financial Stability
Facility atau menerbitkan obligasi bersama Eropa "E‐bonds." Euro naik 0,2% ke 1,3236 setelah jatuh ke level terendah di 1,3181. Imbal hasil obligasi
Spanyol, Portugis dan Italia beringsut menguat, bahkan setelah Spanyol menjual 24 miliar euro obligasi bertenor 10 hingga 15 tahun yang berjalan
secara lancar. Terhadap yen, euro turun di 111,17 <EURJPY=>, sementara dollar turun 0,3% terhadap yen ke 84,02 <JPY=EBS>.

• Outlook (Jumat, 17/Des./2010): Bursa saham Asia cenderung dibuka menguat pada sesi Jumat 17 Desember menyusul naiknya outlook positif atas
ekonomi AS yang menimbulkan kepercayaan bahwa pada 2011 pasar saham akan lebih bergairah. Pelaku pasar akan menantikan rilis kesepakatan
pemimpin Uni‐Eropa dalam hal penyelesaian krisis hutang yang melanda kawasan tersebut.

Gold slides on profit-taking as euro retreats

NEW YORK/LONDON | Thu Dec 16, 2010 3:43pm EST
 

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - Gold fell more than 1 percent on Thursday as investors took profits and pondered the euro's near-term direction and remained concerned about the euro zone debt crisis.
Gold futures fell to a near three-week low while the spot price of the shiny metal dipped below the 50-day moving average, indicating it could be headed for a bear market.
Gold's slump came as the dollar recovered against the euro after data showed positive business conditions in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region.
Other commodity markets generally drifted in thin trade, with the combined energy, metals and agricultural complex showing volumes at least 30 percent lower from the 30-day average by midday.
Aside from the euro, investors said few other factors influenced trading. They said the market shrugged off news about the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's proposed rules to regulate trading.
The euro often provides direction for gold as it is another trade against the dollar.
The euro rose early on Thursday as a European Union summit to discuss the debt crisis got underway. But investors had already cautioned the currency was vulnerable to a sell-off on lingering euro zone peripheral debt concerns.
European leaders sought to paper over deep divisions on how best to resolve the debt crisis ahead of the summit, while Spain and Portugal came under renewed pressure to get their finances in order.
Attractive yields on U.S. Treasuries were also luring some gold investors to diversify into U.S. government debt.
"The Treasury yield is certainly pressuring gold prices," said Bruce Dunn, vice-president at Auramet Trading in Fort Lee, New Jersey. "It's also near month-end, quarter-end and year-end and people are looking to take profit as the euro continues to weaken and the debt crisis drags on."

WEAK INDIAN BUYING

New York's benchmark February gold futures settled down $15.20 at $1,371 an ounce after dipping to $1,362 -- its lowest level since November 29.
Bids for spot gold, which reflect trades in bullion, fell to $1,361.65, below the 50-day moving average of $1,368.86. It recovered to above $1,366 an ounce by 2:30 p.m. EST.
Late Wednesday in New York, bids for gold stood at around $1,380.45.
Some were confident about the longer-term outlook for gold, saying the futures market was likely to rewrite the December 7 record high of above $1,432.50.
They said that although the euro zone crisis was weighing on the euro -- and, in turn, gold -- the phenomenon will ultimately favor the precious metal, as other sovereign debt crises have done in boosting demand for the safe-haven.
"I don't think we will see a sharp decline in gold prices," said Daniel Briesemann, a commodities strategist for Frankfurt-based Commerzbank. "The fundamental data and especially the debt crisis in the euro zone and its peripheral countries is too severe to be too optimistic."
Andrey Kryuchenkov, analyst at VTB Capital in Moscow, made a similar point.
"Overall, economic uncertainties are gold-positive with the currency markets still jittery while fiat currency yields are set to remain low for a prolonged period of time," Kryuchenkov said. "Safe haven buying will limit the downside on gold in the short run."
Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, New York's SPDR Gold Trust, eased by 0.6 tonnes on Wednesday, bringing total inflows in December to 0.4 tonnes versus inflows of just over 7 tonnes in the same period of 2009.
In India, the world's largest gold consumer, buying of jewelry slowed as the wedding season neared its end. Buyers there also shrugged off the impact of a firmer rupee, which made dollar-priced gold cheaper in India.
Buyers "would hardly come...until mid-January," said a Mumbai-based dealer.

Headline News 16.12.10

AS & GLOBAL :

• Bursa saham AS mengalami aksi jual pada akhir sesi secara berturut dalam 3‐sesi terakhir. Setelah sempat naik kelevel tertinggi dalam kurun 2‐tahun terakhir
pada pekan ini, kenaikan imbal hasil Treasury AS telah memicu kekhawatiran bahwa kenaikan biaya pinjaman akan menahan pemulihan ekonomi lebih lanjut.
Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> turun 19,07 poin atau 0,17% ke 11,457.47, S&P <. SPX> turun 6,36 poin atau 0,51% ke 1,235.23 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> melemah 10,50
poin atau 0,40% ke 2,617.22. Sebelumnya, Dow Jones sempat mencetak level tertinggi dalam kurun 52‐minggu terakhir di 11,519.04.

• Euro turun tajam pada sesi Rabu setelah lembaga pemeringkat Moody's mengatakan kemungkinan downgrade peringkat hutang Spanyol dan investor
menunggu langkah lebih lanjut dari pembuat kebijakan Uni‐Eropa untuk menyelesaikan krisis fiskal zona euro. Laporan Moody's menjadi sebuah peringatan
bahwa masalah fiskal di Eropa masih belum terselesaikan. Berita tersebut menekan euro hingga mencatat performa harian terburuk sejak akhir November
silam. Dollar AS berhasil menguat, didukung oleh data yang menunjukkan kenaikan produksi industri pada bulan November. Inflasi harga konsumen yang tetap
terjaga juga mendukung kebijakan pelonggaran moneter kuantitatif The Fed. Euro tercatat turun 1,29% terhadap dolar pada 1,3227 <EUR=>.

• Euro melemah 0,3% terhadap Swiss franc ke 1,2802 franc <EURCHF=EBS>, setelah mencapai rekor rendah di 1,2758 menyusul laporan Moody's tentang
Spanyol. Franc cenderung menguat seiring kekhawatiran masalah utang di beberapa negara Eropa yang kemudian mendorong investor untuk mengurangi
eksposur ke aset berisiko dan mencari alternatif yang lebih aman. Pemimipin negara‐negara Uni‐Eropa dijadwalkan akan menggelar pertemuan dua harian
yang dimulai Kamis 16 Desember untuk membicarakan krisis utang Uni‐Eropa, meskipun terdapat pesimisme akan hasil dari pertemuan tersebut. Dollar AS juga
menguat 0,7% terhadap yen Jepang ke 84,25 <JPY=EBS>, sementara Sterling turun 1.5% terhadap dolar ke 1.5541 yang merupakan performa harian terburuk
sejak awal Mei silam.

• Harga emas dunia melemah untuk pertama kalinya dalam 3‐sesi terakhir menyusul rally tajam dolar seiring data inflasi yang stabil dan aksi year‐end booksquaring
meredakan minat investor membeli aset berstatus safe haven termasuk emas setelah lembaga pemeringkat Moody's mengatakan kemungkinan
downgrade peringkat hutang Spanyol. Harga spot emas <XAU=> turun 0,7% ke 1,385.60 USD per troy ounce.

• Harga minyak dunia menguat di atas 88 USD per barel setelah data menunjukkan penurunan mingguan terbesar dalam persediaan minyak mentah AS dalam
delapan tahun terakhir. Optimisme dari data aktivitas industri AS juga membantu mengangkat sentimen investor, yang sebelumnya dipengaruhi oleh
kekhawatiran utang zona euro setelah peringatan pada peringkat kredit Spanyol. Minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Januari <CLc1> naik 15 sen menjadi
88,43 USD per barel.

• Outlook (Kamis, 16/Des./2010): Bursa saham Asia diperkirakan akan dibuka beragam pada sesi Kamis 16 Desember, karena kekhawatiran zona euro utang
yang kembali, menekan minat investor pada aset berisiko. Sementara bursa Jepang diperkirakan akan dibuka menguat seiring nilai tukar yen yang melemah.

Wall St slips in another late sell-off, dollar gains

NEW YORK | Wed Dec 15, 2010 4:33pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks suffered a third straight late-day sell-off on Wednesday, suggesting it may be difficult to chalk further gains as the year comes to a close.After hitting two-year highs this week, a sustained rise in Treasury yields has sparked worry that rising borrowing costs could stifle the recovery. Banks, heavily dependent on loan demand, faded and ended lower for a third straight day. The sense among investors is that the market, after rising almost 11 percent so far in 2010, has run its course for the year.
"There are signs that the market is making a top at these levels, and people are starting to take profits," said King Lip, chief investment officer at Baker Avenue Asset Management in San Francisco. "Because the trading volume is low, I think this is temporary; the rally probably still has room to go."
Major averages and stocks that have led the rally have exhibited a familiar pattern in recent days, spiking early and succumbing to selling late as investors see stocks hitting resistance.
Apple Inc (AAPL.O) ended the day flat at $320.36, up just 0.02 percent after rising as high as $323 earlier in the day. Netflix Inc (NFLX.O) closed nearly flat, up just 0.03 percent at $178.50 -- off its high of $181.42.
Judy Moses, a San Francisco-based portfolio manager at Evercore Wealth Management, which has about $2.3 billion in assets under management, said that seasonal issues related to the end of the year could be affecting traders.
"Managers don't want to show high cash balances after such a strong year, but at this point, they also want to lock in gains," she said.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI slipped 19.07 points, or 0.17 percent, to 11,457.47. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX shed 6.36 points, or 0.51 percent, to 1,235.23. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC dropped 10.50 points, or 0.40 percent, to close at 2,617.22.
Earlier, the Dow hit a fresh 52-week high intraday at 11,519.04.
Sentiment on the volatile day started lower after Moody's warned Spain its debt rating could be downgraded, bringing concerns about the euro-zone debt crisis back to the forefront and lifting the dollar, which has had a strong inverse relationship with equities of late.
However, those concerns were later offset by positive U.S. data on industrial production and regional manufacturing. The data boosted stocks going into the afternoon, but markets were unable to hold those gains.
Industrial production rose in November at its fastest pace in four months, implying that a self-sustaining recovery is now entrenched. An index of manufacturing activity in New York rebounded strongly, adding to the brighter picture.
"We're going into the end of the year and just hit a two-year high, so even though macro data has been better, things haven't perked up so much to lift us farther from here," said Adrian Cronje, chief investment officer at the Atlanta-based Balentine, which has about $800 million in assets under management.
Honeywell International Inc (HON.N) fell 1.9 percent to $51.54 after it gave a 2011 profit growth outlook that analysts described as conservative.
Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N) rose 1.1 percent to $93.08 after RBC raised its price target to $108 from $98.
A deal that President Barack Obama struck with Republicans to extend the Bush-era tax rates sailed through the U.S. Senate on Wednesday and will soon head to the House of Representatives, where it could face steeper opposition, though it is still expected to pass.
About 7.82 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq, well below the year's daily average of 8.62 billion.
Almost two stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange, while on the Nasdaq, about 16 stocks fell for every 11 that rose.

Euro falls 1 percent vs dollar to session low

NEW YORK | Wed Dec 15, 2010 2:45pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The euro extended declines against the dollar on Wednesday to trade more than 1 percent lower, weighed by persistent worries about the euro zone's financial woes.The euro slid as low as $1.3223 on trading platform EBS, breaking below support at around $1.3235, or a 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the euro's rise from August to November.
It was last down 1.2 percent at $1.3226. The next downside target is in the $1.3164 to $1.3182 area, which represents the euro's lows from December 8-13.
The weakness in the euro came after Moody's said it may downgrade Spain's debt rating and as traders waited for a summit of European Union leaders later this week.
The dollar also hit a session peak against the yen at 84.48 on EBS, and was last up nearly 1 percent at 84.45 yen.

Headline News 15.12.10

AS & GLOBAL :
 
• Bursa saham AS ditutup relatif stagnan setelah sempat menguat pada awal sesi ditengah aksi jual investor berkaitan dengan pernyataan dari The Fed mengenai
kondisi ekonomi AS yang kemudian menutupi data retail sales untuk November yang dirilis menguat. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 47,98 poin atau 0,42%
kelevel 11,476.62, S&P500 <SPX.> naik 1,13 poin atau 0,09% ke 1,241.59 dan indeks Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 2,81 poin atau 0,11% ke 2,627.72.
 
• The Fed, dalam pernyataan resminya mengungkapkan bahwa pemulihan ekonomi AS masih belum cukup untuk menurunkan tingkat pengangguran, dan
menegaskan kembali komitmennya untuk membeli obligasi pemerintah senilai 600 miliar USD. Langkah ini mendorong naiknya imbal hasil obligasi AS dan
secara bersamaan menekan saham‐saham keuangan dibursa Wall Street. Sebelumnya, dilaporkan bahwa penjualan ritel AS untuk November naik secara
beruntun dalam kurun 5‐bulan terakhir, menguatkan ekspektasi pada naiknya spending konsumen AS yang menyumbang sekitar dua pertiga dari ekonomi AS.

• Dollar AS naik terhadap euro dan yen pasca rilis pernyataan The Fed. Sementara itu produk‐produk Treasury AS melemah setelah pernyataan Fed tidak
menunjukkan tanda‐tanda bank sentral akan membatasi langkah‐langkah stimulus ekonomi, meningkatkan prospek percepatan pemulihan ekonomi dan inflasi.
Euro sempat membukukan rekor tertinggi selama 3‐pekan terakhir di 1.35 USD, untuk kemudian ditutup melemah 0,1% di 1,3379 <EUR=>. Sementara itu dollar
AS naik 0,3% terhadap yen ke 83,63 <JPY=> sedangkan Aussie dollar <AUD=> berhasil mencapai level paritas terhadap USD terdorong kenaikan harga minyak.

• Euro tercatat mengalami kenaikan tertinggi sepanjang 3‐pekan terakhir terhadap yen <EURJPY=R> menafikan rilis data ZEW Jerman yang dibawah perkiraan.
Namun euro kemudian beringsut melemah setelah lembaga pemeringkat S&P rating mengatakan peringkat obligasi Belgia berpeluang mengalami downgrade
dalam 6‐bulan kedepan, kondisi mana kembali mencuatkan kekhawatiran pada kondisi krisis finansial kawasan Uni‐Eropa. Dollar AS dan euro anjlok kelevel
terendah terhadap Swiss franc menjelang pengumuman sidang The Fed. Sebelumnya, pemerintah Swiss menaikkan estimasi pertumbuhan ekonomi untuk 2011
dengan mengatakan pertumbuhan konsumsi yang solid dan construction spending yang kuat akan membantu mengatasi perlambatan ekspor.

• Harga emas dunia ditutup dilevel tertinggi dalam kurun sepekan terakhir menyusul pelemahan dollar AS sebelum keputusan kebijakan Federal Reserve. Harga
spot emas <XAU=> sempat menguat hingga 1.407,70 USD per troy ounce untuk kemudian ditutup dikisaran level 1.395,39 USD per tory ounce. Meskipun sinyal
dari The Fed cukup positif, namun investor cenderung enggan mengambil posisi besar besar menjelang sesi akhir tahun.

• Harga minyak mentah AS melemah tertekan rilis pengumuman The Fed yang menyatakan pemulihan ekonomi masih lambat dan menegaskan kembali
komitmen bank sentral dalam pembelian obligasi pemerintah guna menstimulasi perekonomian. Minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Januari <CLc1> turun 33
sen dilevel 88,28 USD per barel.

• Outlook (Rabu, 15/Des./2010): Bursa saham Asia diperkirakan akan dibuka menguat terinspirasi bursa Wall Street yang naik terdorong rilis data retail sales
untuk November yang melebihi perkiraan.

Fed cautious on recovery, sticks to bond plan

WASHINGTON | Tue Dec 14, 2010 7:05pm EST
 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Tuesday
offered only a cautious nod to the economy's improving prospects as it put a spotlight on lofty unemployment and reaffirmed its commitment to buy $600 billion in bonds.
In a statement that emphasized job market weakness and low inflation, the Fed characterized the U.S. expansion as "continuing," a modest upgrade from its November description of the recovery as "slow."
"The economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment," the Fed said in a statement at the conclusion of a one-day meeting.
The sober assessment stood in contrast to increasingly optimistic forecasts on Wall Street, where analysts have been revising economic projections based on a slew of stronger-than-expected data and a new government tax cut plan.
As widely expected, the Fed offered no policy shift. It held overnight interest rates near zero, repeated a vow to keep rates exceptionally low for an extended period and renewed its pledge to buy about $75 billion worth of bonds a month to hold down long-term interest rates.
"What I think the Fed is trying to do is kick the can, so to speak, until their January 2011 meeting," said Joe Kinahan, chief derivatives strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago.
The dollar edged up against the euro and the yen as the Fed offered no sign of expanding its bond buying, but Treasury bonds extended losses on the central bank's dovish remarks.
On Wall Street, stocks were little changed after the statement and ended the day modestly higher.

GLOOMY OUTLOOK, DEFLATION CONCERNS

While offering a tempered acknowledgment of the apparent strengthening in the economy, the Fed maintained its focus on the two principle areas it is trying address: high unemployment and a slowing in already low inflation.
"The Fed continues to say that the outlook for employment and spending isn't as strong as the market perceives it," said Andrew Wilkinson, a senior market analyst for Interactive Brokers in Greenwich, Connecticut.
Analysts also noted the omission of any mention of a sharp spike in bond yields that threatens to thwart the Fed's campaign to lower borrowing costs. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury are at highs not seen since May.
"Playing ostrich?" wondered UBS economist Maury Harris.
The Fed launched its program to buy longer-term Treasury securities early last month to support a weak economic recovery that was failing to generate jobs.
The Fed had already bought $1.7 trillion in longer-term assets from late 2008 through the beginning of this year in a bid to boost the economy after it had cut short-term interest rates to near zero.
The most recent bond-buying plan was assailed by critics, including foreign governments, who were concerned it could trigger inflation or set off a round of competitive currency devaluations by weakening the dollar.
Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig on Tuesday again expressed concerns that the program could destabilize the economy, the Fed's statement showed. He has dissented at every Fed policy meeting this year.
Consumer and business demand appears to be picking up, with a report on Tuesday showing a solid gain in retail sales in November. But the U.S. jobless rate jumped to 9.8 percent last month from 9.6 percent in October and core inflation is at record lows.
The economy looks set to get an additional boost from a deal between the White House and congressional Republicans to extend Bush-era income tax cuts that included a surprise reduction in payroll taxes. Some forecasters said the plan could lift growth next year by up to a full percentage point.
In a Reuters poll on Tuesday, 14 of 16 primary dealers who answered the survey said they increased their growth outlook as a result of the tax deal. The median of forecasts by the primary dealers, banks that deal directly with the Fed, for U.S. gross domestic product for 2011 rose to 3.05 percent from 2.70 percent in the poll earlier this month.
(Reporting by Mark Felsenthal and Pedro da Costa, editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Gary Crosse, Leslie Adler)

Headline News 14.12.10

AS & GLOBAL :
 
• Indeks saham AS ditutup beragam setelah berhasil membukukan rekor tertinggi tahunannya, menyusul menurunnya optimisme atas langkah
Cina untuk menahan laju pertumbuhan ekonominya. Investor menyimpan kekhawatiran bahwa Cina akan menaikkan suku bunga untuk
memperlambat pertumbuhan ekonomi, meskipun kemudian ternyata pemerintah Cina hanya meningkatkan rasio kecukupan modal
perbankan, langkah yang dinilai pelaku pasar masih kurang agresif. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 18,24 poin atau 0,16% ditutup dilevel
11,428.56, setelah membukukan rekor tertinggi di 11,480.03. Indeks S&P <SPX.> ditutup stagnan di 1,240.46, sementara disisi lain indeks
Nasdaq <IXIC.> turun 12,63 poin atau 0,48% kelevel 2,624.91.
 
• Pada awal pekan ini pelaku pasar terfokus pada kekhawatiran akan prospek defisit AS yang menekan dollar AS setelah lembaga pemeringkat
Moody's mengatakan kesepakatan pemotongan pajak yang berhasil dicapai pekan lalu antara Gedung Putih dan kubu Republik bisa
menggeser pandangan terhadap peringkat kredit atas Amerika Serikat. Kesepakatan pemotongan pajak AS dapat membengkakkan defisit
anggaran. Kondisi perdagangan AS dan defisit anggaran secara tradisional merupakan fokus investor dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, namun
hal tersebut ditutupi oleh runtuhnya pasar perumahan, memburuknya hipotek dan krisis perbankan serta sistem keuangan AS dalam 2‐
tahun terakhir. Dan saat ini ketika ekonomi mulai pulih, fokus investor kembali bergeser kepada defisit anggaran. Euro tercatat naik 1,2%
kelevel 1,3390 <EUR=>, sementara dollar turun 1,3% terhadap Swiss franc ke 0,9679 franc <CHF=>. Dollar AS juga mencatat pelemahan
terhadap yen, turun 0,6% menjadi 83,41 yen <JPY=>. The Fed akan mengadakan sidang terakhirnya pada 2010 ini pada hari Selasa 14
Desember dan KTT Uni Eropa yang berlangsung selama dua hari akan dimulai pada Kamis 16 Desember, dimana para pemimpin Uni‐Eropa
diharapkan akan menghasilkan perjanjian khusus yang akan membuka jalan untuk menciptakan European Stability Mechanisme di tahun
2013, ketika mekanisme yang sementara akan berakhir.
 
• Harga emas dunia naik ke 1.400 USD per troy ounce setelah pada 2‐pekan terakhir tercatat mengalami penurunan sebesar 2%, investor
memborong logam mulia tersebut seiring pelemahan dollar AS, langkah Cina yang mempertahankan suku bunga dan masih belum jelasnya
kebijakan pemangkasan pajak AS. Harga spot emas <XAU=> naik 1% menjadi 1,396.87 USD per troy ounce.

• Sementara itu harga minyak dunia berhasil menguat pada sesi awal pekan ini, terangkat performa komoditas lainnya terpengaruh rilis data
ekonomi China yang menguat melebihi perkiraan meskipun pada akhirnya minyak terbentur level resistance kuat di 89.45 USD per barel
ditambah mencuatnya kekhawatiran investor bahwa Cina dapat mengambil langkah lebih jauh guna menahan laju inflasi. Sementara itu
pemerintah Arab Saudi mengatakan pihaknya masih cukup nyaman dengan kondisi dimana harga minyak berada dikisaran level 70 USD
hingga 80 USD per barel, komentar mana kemudian memicu kehati‐hatian investor hati‐hati bahkan ketika OPEC pada hari Sabtu terus
kebijakan produksi tidak berubah seperti yang diharapkan, meskipun baru‐baru ini minyak naik di atas 90 USD per barel. Harga minyak
mentah AS untuk pengiriman Januari <CLc1> naik 82 sen kelevel 88,61 USD per barel, setelah sempat membukukan level tertinggi di 89,49
USD per barel.

• Outlook (Selasa, 14/Des./2010): Bursa saham Asia diperkirakan akan dibuka menguat pada sesi Selasa 14 Desember, menyusul kuatnya data
ekonomi Cina yang tidak diimbangi dengan langkah pengetatan moneter yang cukup signifikan guna menahan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi
yang dominan. Hal tersebut masih menguatkan keyakinan investor bahwa ekonomi terbesar kedua dunia tersebut masih akan terus menjadi
mesin penggerak pertumbuhan global.