AS & GLOBAL :
• Rally bursa saham Wall Street tertahan menyusul laporan sektor ketenagakerjaan AS yang menunjukkan penambahan di non‐farm payrolls untuk November yang hanya 39.000, atau lebih rendah dari perkiraan sebesar 140.000. Sementara itu tingkat pengangguran naik ke level
tertinggi dalam tujuh bulan terakhir menjadi sebesar 9,8%. Investor berharap dengan data sektor ketenagakerjaan tersebut akan mempertahankan dukungan pemerintah AS pada sektor keuangan.
• Saham‐saham di bursa Wall Street berhasil menguat diakhir sesi setelah adanya laporan bahwa Ketua The Fed ‐ Ben Bernanke mengatakan dalam sebuah wawancara dengan televisi CBS (yang direkam pada 30 November lalu) bahwa dirinya tidak mengesampingkan kemungkinan
penambahan jumlah pembelian aset The Fed lebih dari 600 milyar USD. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 19,68 poin atau 0,17% ke 11,382.09,
S&P <. SPX> menguat 3,18 poin atau 0,26% ke 1,224.71 dan Nasdaq Composite Index <. IXIC> naik 12,11 poin atau 0,47% ke 2,591.46.
• Euro tercatat mengalami kenaikan beruntung dalam 3‐sesi terakhir secara berturut setelah sempat anjlok 7% selama November, meskipun analis meragukan apakah rally ini akan berlanjut pada minggu berikutnya. Kenaikan euro diperkuat data ekonomi AS yang dibawah perkiraan. Euro naik 1,5% di 1,3414 <EUR=> pada hari Jumat, setelah sempat mencapai level terendah dalam kurun 2‐1/2‐bulan terakhir
dibawah 1,30 pada Selasa 30 November lalu. Pembelian obligasi oleh ECB terhadap obligasi Irlandia dan Portugis cukup membantu mengangkat sentimen pelaku pasar. Namun dengan minimnya rilis data ekonom AS dalam sepekan kedepan, kekhawatiran pada kondisi keuangan kawasan Uni‐Eropa masih cukup kuat. Pihak berwenang Eropa mungkin memang telah menyelamatkan Irlandia, namun investor masih khawatir tentang kemungkinan negara Uni‐Eropa lainnya yang akan meminta bantuan finansial. Di tempat lain, dolar AS turun ke level terendah 2‐1/2‐pekan terakhir di level 82,53 <JPY=EBS>.
• Harga emas dunia menguat lebih dari 2% persen sesi terakhir pekan lalu, sempat naik di atas level 1.400 USD per troy ons seiring anjloknya dollar AS setelah data sektor ketenagakerjaan dirilis dibawah perkiraan yang mulai menurunkan optimisme tinggi pada pemulihan ekonomi AS. Emas tercatat naik lebih dari 3% minggu lalu, keuntungan terbesar sejak April. Emas berhasil menembus diatas level 1.400 USD per troy
ounce untuk pertama kalinya sejak November setelah data US nonfarm payrolls dirilis dibawah perkiraan, dan unemployment naik kelevel tertinggi dalam 7‐bulan terakhir. Harga spot emas <XAU=> naik 1,7% menjadi 1,408.19 USD per troy ounce, kenaikan harian terbesar sejak 4 November.
• Sementara itu harga minyak AS naik ke level tertinggi dalam 25‐bulan terakhir, kenaikan beruntun dalam 3‐sesi berturut. Kenaikan mana terpicu anjloknya dollar AS yang memacu arus investasi pada komoditi serta kondisi cuaca ekstrim di Eropa dan Timur Laut AS melejitkan harga minyak pemanas. Harga minyak AS dengan kontrak penyerahan Januari <CLc1> naik 1,19 USD dan ditutup dilevel 89,19 USD per per
barel, penutupan tertinggi sejak 7 Oktober 2008. Dalam sepekan terakhir, minyak tercatat menguat 6,48%, persentase keuntungan terbaik sejak naik 6,66% pada awal pekan November.
The nonfarm payrolls fell far short of expectations and the unemployment rate rose again, and this was doubly surprising because of the recent appearance of improving data out of the US. Does the weaker greenback in the wake of this data make sense, however?
USD and US Employment Report
If there is one phenomenon we have been used to for many months now, it is the idea that the USD and risk appetite are irretrievably joined at the hip, with the USD falling every time equities rally and vice versa. We noted yesterday that the strength of this correlation seemed to be fading a bit, since many of the major equity indices were at new highs while the USD was still well off its recent lows. After today’s data, it appears the predominant thought is not of risk appetite, however, but the implications of this poor employment report on the Fed’s quantitative easing plans, which theoretically move back into high gear in the wake of a report like today’s. After all, half of the Fed’s mandate is related to employment (the other half being inflation).
So today’s ugly US employment report has really confused the market here. In normal times, it is bad for the USD to have negative US data – but these aren’t normal times. The question in these times is how the market chooses to react to the negative data in terms of risk appetite (higher because more easing keeps the liquidity party going or lower because the market finally starts to worry about growth implications of bad data?).
After the ugly data today we are seeing risk selling off, which has normally been USD supportive in this market cycle (regardless of the fundamental implications for the US economy). Something is not right here unless we are moving into a new market paradigm: it’s fine and makes sense for USDJPY to drop on today’s market reaction to the US data. It also makes sense or EURUSD to squeeze a bit higher as Euro sovereign risk spreads are easing and this data suddenly makes the US economy look relatively worse. But should AUDUSD to rip higher here? That makes no sense. Risk appetite should be the sole determinant of that pair’s direction and has been nearly tick for tick, seemingly forever. So the current reaction pattern cannot stand – either AUDUSD falls as equities fall or equities shake off the bad data here and rally and in doing so also justify the extension of AUDUSD higher today. (A few minutes after we are writing this, the market is bearing this out as stocks have bounced smartly – there are surely arbitragers and HFT operators looking at these kinds of opportunities.)