SINGAPORE | Fri Apr 22, 2011 9:28am EDT
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Spot gold surged to a lifetime high on Friday in thin holiday trade, hitting a record for a sixth consecutive session on a weak dollar and factors ranging from geopolitical uncertainty to inflation concerns.
Silver also raced to its loftiest in 31 years, notching the milestone for a seventh straight day and outstripping gold's weekly gains by a huge margin.
The ongoing euro zone sovereign debt crisis, unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, rising global inflation, and most recently worries over the fiscal stability of the United States have fueled the record-breaking rally in these precious metals.
Spot gold rose to an record of $1,512.50 an ounce, before easing to $1,507.69 by 4:53 a.m. EST, on track for a weekly gain of 1.5 percent -- its sixth consecutive week of gains.
Spot silver hit $46.69 an ounce, its highest since 1980, on course for a weekly rise of 8.4 percent, its biggest weekly increase in two months.
Silver has gained 51 percent so far this year, and gold 6 percent. This compares with a corresponding 1 percent rise in the London Metal Exchange price of copper, the bellwether of the industrial metals complex.
Supporting precious metals, the dollar was languishing near a three-year low against a basket of currencies, and could take a run at the all-time low hit in 2008, pressured by record low interest rates and the crushing weight of the U.S. budget deficit.
So long as the overall environment stays supportive and the dollar remains weak, gold is expected to retain its strength. Price of bullion is seen to rise to $1,700 an ounce by 2015, analysts polled by Reuters said in a poll.
However, a correction might be on the horizon after the recent rapid ascent, traders and analysts said.
"Gold is likely to consolidate around the $1,500-level next week," said Li Ning, an analyst at Shanghai CIFCO Futures. "The angle of the recent rally is very sharp, and we are bound to see some correction in the near term."
MORE STEAM TO RUN ON?
Spot gold has rallied more than $50, or 4 percent, in the past eight sessions. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, rose to nearly 75, a level unseen since October last year, suggesting the market has been heavily overbought.
The RSI on spot silver climbed close to near 89, its highest since April 1987.
The gold market may have topped out, and now is the time to sell while there are still people willing to buy, said Barry Schwartz, vice president and portfolio manager at Toronto-based wealth manager Baskin Financial Services.
However, Shanghai CIFCO's Li said gold has more steam to run on and expected prices to peak at $1,550 by the end of the second quarter, buoyed by the Middle East unrest, sovereign debt concerns on both sides of the Atlantic and inflation worries.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange has started a trial for over-the-counter trading, providing a convenient tool for institutional clients to trade large quantities of gold, to catch up with exploding investment demand in China.
Holdings in the physically backed exchange-traded precious metals funds dipped ahead of the long Easter weekend. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's biggest gold ETF, saw holdings dip 0.6 metric tons to 1,229.643 metric tonne.
Financial markets in Singapore and Hong Kong are closed on Friday for a public holiday, and Hong Kong will remain closed on Monday.
US & GLOBAL
• Erosi dolar AS terus terakselerasi minggu ini setelah warning lembaga Standard & Poor's terhadap beban utang besar Amerika Serikat serta tanda-tanda perlambatan ekonominya. Namun pasar saham tidak terpengaruh oleh peringatan S&P's, yang pada hari Senin lalu menyatakan akan men-downgrade peringkat utang Amerika Serikat (yang saat ini di level AAA) jika gagal mencapai kesepakatan untuk rencana pemangkasan utang $14 trilyun dalam kurun
waktu 2 tahun ini.
• Indeks dolar AS (terhadap mata uang utama dunia) merosot ke level terendah 3 tahun Kamis kemarin yang memicu lonjakan harga komoditas emas ke rekor tertinggi di tengah arus investasi yang marak pada aset-aset yang memiliki ketergantungan minim pada ekonomi AS. Sementara optimisnya rilis laporan pendapatan perusahaan AS dan Eropa kuartal pertama tahun 2011 memicu kenaikan bursa saham dunia ke level tertinggi 33-bulan.
• Banyak perusahaan Amerika yang memiliki exposure bisnis di luar negeri, di mana permintaan dan investasi sedang meningkat. Hal ini meredam pesimisme dari kinerja ekonomi AS yang kembali menunjukkan tanda-tanda melambat karena pertumbuhan lapangan kerja yang lemah dan harga minyak naik.
• Dolar mengalami tekanan karena masih dipertahankannya level suku bunga yang ultra-rendah dan arus diversifikasi bank sentral global dari dolar AS ke
denominasi mata uang dunia lain, meskipun krisis utang Eropa kembali mengemuka belakangan ini. Proyeksi bahwa bank sentral AS akan mempertahankan
suku bunga sebesar nol dekat untuk masa yang akan datang, bahkan ketika bank sentral utama lainnya menaikkan suku atau akan memperketat, telah
menekan dolar dalam beberapa pekan terakhir.
• Indeks dolar <.DXY> turun ke 73,735, level terendah sejak Agustus 2008. Minimnya volume perdagangan menjelang
long-weekend Paskah memperbesar pengurangan bertahap aset dolar bank sentral asing dari cadangan mereka. Secara teknis ada potensi indeks dolar AS akan menuju rekor rendah 70,698
yang pernah dicapai tahun 2008 lalu.
• Investor cenderung memburu kembali aset-aset beresiko, meskipun ada warning karena kekhawatiran tentang krisis utang zona euro dan dampak gempa-
tsunami Jepang yang mengganggu rantai pasokan. Semua faktor ini memberikan sentimen negatif untuk dolar, yang akan memicu akselerasi tekanannya
lebih lanjut.
• Namun bursa saham tidak didukung oleh kredibilitas dolar AS, karena banyak sekali perusahaan-perusahaan AS yang memiliki
exposure di luar negeri. Investor memburu saham-saham setelah laporan pendapatan perusahaan global di kuartal pertama 2011 meredam pesimisme rilis data ekonomi dunia,
seperti dari Jerman (Ifo) dan Amerika Serikat ( weekly jobless claims ). Indeks bursa saham dunia yang tergabung dalam indeks MSCI naik selama 3 hari
berturut-turut, dan Kamis kemarin naik 0,7% ke level tertinggi sejak Juli 2008.
• Bursa saham Wall Street mengalami kenaikan pertama kalinya untuk basis mingguan selama 3 minggu terakhir, setelah laporan pendapatan yang sangat
optimis dari sejumlah perusahaan industrinya, termasuk Apple, yang mendongkrak kembali sentimen
bullish
pasar. Indeks saham Eropa, FTSEurofirst 300
<.FTEU3>, 0,4%, indeks saham Asia naik ke level tertinggi mereka sejak Januari 2008.
• Lemahnya dolar AS dan kekhawatiran inflasi dunia memicu akselerasi kenaikan harga emas ke rekor tertingginya, $1,508.75, sementara harga perak
<XAG=> melonjak ke level tertinggi 31 tahun di $46,66/ounce. Harga minyak mentah AS tipe kontrak Juni (CLc1) berlanjut rebound ke $ 112,35/barel.
Pasar keuangan AS tutup hari ini memperingati Jumat Agung (Paskah), sementara pasar Inggris akan ditutup baik Jumat dan Senin untuk akhir pekan
panjang merayakan Paskah.
