Headline News 21.01.11

US & GLOBAL
 
• Bursa saham AS melemah seiring rilis earning sektor teknologi dan material yang kurang memenuhi ekspektasi. Morgan Stanley membukukan
pendapatan yang lebih baik dari perkiraan, mendongkrak kinerja saham‐saham sektor perbankan. Sementara Google Inc melaporkan earning untuk
kuartal keempat yang lebih baik dari perkiraan. Sementara disisi lain Freeport‐McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc, memangkas target penjualan dan
memperkirakan kenaikan biaya produksi. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> turun 2,49 poin atau 0,02% ke 11,822.80, S&P500 <. SPX> turun 1,66 poin atau
0,13% ke 1,280.26 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> turun 21,07 poin atau 0,77% ke 2,704.29.
 
• Dollar AS berhasil menguat terhadap mata uang utama dunia lainnya seiring membaiknya rilis data sektor perumahan dan ketenagakerjaan,
sementara menguatnya ekspektasi pada pemulihan krisis utang Eropa meredam maraknya aksi jual euro. Turut menopang kinerja dollar AS adalah
mencuatnya kekhawatiran bahwa Cina akan menaikkan suku bunga untuk menahan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi yang terlampau kuat. Namun disisi
lain kondisi tersebut menekan mata uang ber imbal hasil tinggi seperti Aussie dan New Zealand dollar, Australia merupakan eksportir sumber daya
alam ke China, yang membuat mata uangnya sensitif terhadap prospek ekonomi China. Kenaikan tajam penjualan rumah AS (existing home sales)
dan penurunan dalam jobless claims memperkuat ekspektasi harapan pada pemulihan ekonomi AS yang lebih stabil.
 
• Tanda‐tanda menguatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi juga mendorong naiknya imbal hasil obligasi AS, membantu dollar AS naik 1,2% terhadap yen ke
83,03 <JPY=> dan naik 1,3% terhadap Swiss franc ke 0,9677 <CHF=>. Euro sempat turun kelevel 1.3396 namun ditutup stagnan di kisaran level
1.3470. Aussie dollar <AUD=D4> turun 1,3% ke 0,9870.
 
• Emas turun hampir 2% ke posisi terendah dua bulan terakhir menyusul maraknya aksi ambil untung pelaku pasar yang ditingkahi kekhawatiran
pada pengetatan moneter lebih lanjut dari Cina yang memicu koreksi pada harga‐harga komoditas. Perak, turun hampir 4% mencatat penurunan
harian terbesar sejak 1‐1/2 bulan bulan terakhir. Harga spot emas <XAU=> turun 1.4% kelevel 1.350,90 USD per troy ounce.
 
• Harga minyak dunia merosot sekitar 2% akibat maraknya aksi jual yang dipicu oleh kenaikan tak terduga stok minyak mentah AS dan kekhawatiran
bahwa Cina mungkin akan memperketat kebijakan moneter untuk melawan inflasi. Penurunan drastis setelah investor melikuidasi posisi kontrak
bulan Februari. Harga minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Februari ditutup 2.1% lebih rendah ke 88,86 USD per barel. Sedangkan minyak mentah
AS untuk pengiriman Maret <CLH1> ditutup dilevel 89,59 USD per barel.
 
• Outlook (Jumat, 21/Jan./2011): Bursa saham Asia kemungkinan akan dibuka melemah mengikuti sentimen rilis earning korporasi AS yang kurang
memuaskan dan turunnya harga komoditas dunia serta kemungkinan pengetatan moneter lebih lanjut Cina.

Oil dips 2 percent on China fears, U.S. stockpiles

By Gene Ramos

NEW YORK | Thu Jan 20, 2011 4:16pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices slumped about 2 percent on Thursday on a sell-off sparked by an unexpected rise in U.S. crude stockpiles and worries that China might tighten monetary policy to fight inflation.

The steep drop in prices came as investors liquidated positions on the front-month U.S. February crude contract, which expired at the close, overshadowng upbeat U.S. economic data on jobs and housing.
Crude oil fell along with a sell-off in a broad array of commodities and equities. The slide followed a report by China that its economy grew 9.8 percent in the fourth quarter, even faster than expected, while inflation barely slowed.

This raised fears the government will tighten monetary policy to choke off excessive demand.
Crude oil and other commodities also came under pressure from a rising dollar after U.S. economic data fueled hope that the country's economic recovery was on track.
In late trading the dollar edged up 0.22 percent against a basket of currencies, a drag on commodities priced in the greenback.

U.S. February crude settled $2 lower at $88.86 a barrel, down for a third day in a row, after having hit a session low of $88 earlier, the lowest since January 7. U.S. March crude closed down $2.22 at $89.59.
In London, March Brent crude ended down $1.58 at $96.58 a barrel, falling for the first time in three days, with the session low hitting $95.43, the lowest since January 11.
Brent's premium against U.S. benchmark crude West Texas Intermediate rose to $6.99 at the close, from $6.35 on Wednesday. The premium widened to $7.39 on Thursday, moving toward $8.24 hit on January 14, which was the widest since February 2009.

UNEXPECTED RISE IN U.S. STOCKPILES

U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose 2.62 million barrels in the week to January 14, defying forecasts for a 400,000 barrel drawdown, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed.
The first stock build in seven weeks jolted investors who had expected inventories to be down significantly due to the disruption of domestic production after the shutdown of the Trans Alaska Pipeline that moves oil from Alaska to the West Coast.

"The Alaska pipeline was not down long enough to have a drastic impact on the crude supplies," said Bill O'Grady, chief investment strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis, Missouri.
The pipeline, which normally moves 12 percent of U.S. crude production, was back in operation on Monday as producers also restarted, after a bypass repair to circumvent a leak discovered January 8. It was expected to ramp up to normal rates of about 630,000 barrels per day by early next week.

CHINA'S GROWTH MAY SPAWN CURBS

China's fourth quarter gross domestic product rose above forecasts, raising worries that booming growth may lead to inflation. Investors are worried that any steps by China to slow growth may result in a hard landing for markets in 2011.

But not everyone is convinced Chinese attempts to curb inflation will result in lower oil prices.
"We wonder if the increasing inflationary pressure in China can be curbed. At present, China is the world's fastest growing economy and even if the government is trying to curb the inflation, we doubt that it will succeed fully," said the research team at Global Risk Management in a report.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell more than expected last week and showed their biggest decline since February, erasing a holiday-related spike to show a trend toward a healthier labor market remained intact.
U.S. homes resales jumped more than expected in December, offering some hope of further recovery in the housing sector.