Headline News 28.01.11

US & GLOBAL 
• Membaiknya laporan earning korporasi mendukung penguatan bursa Wall Street ke level penutupan tertinggi dalam 29‐bulan terakhir. Indeks Dow Jones dan S&P500 mencoba
untuk menembus secara signifikan diatas level teknis penting ‐ dimana Dow Jones mencoba terus naik diatas level 12.000 dan untuk S&P diatas level 1.300. Microsoft Corp
melaporkan kenaikan pada laba kuartal kedua 2010 lebih besar dari periode sebelumnya meskipun analis meragukan pertumbuhan laba kedepan menyusul penurunan penjualan
PC, saham tersebut naik 2% setelah laporan earning. Saham‐saham teknologi lainnya, seperti Netflix dan Qualcomm, mendukung penguatan Nasdaq, namun earning yang
mengecewakan dari AT&T dan P&G menghentikan laju penguatan Dow Jones. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 0,04% di 11,989.83, S&P500 <SPX.> menguat 0,22% ke 1,299.54 dan
Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 0,58% ke 2,755.28.
 
• Yen melemah ke posisi terendah sejak 2‐bulan terakhir terhadap euro dan merosot ke level terendah 2‐pekan terakhir terhadap dollar AS setelah lembaga pemeringkat Standard
& Poor's memangkas peringkat jangka panjang Jepang menjadi AA‐. Meskipun masalah fiskal Jepang sudah cukup mengemuka, namun downgrade tersebut kemudian
mempertanyakan kembali status safe haven yen, hal tersebut kemudian meningkatkan daya tarik dollar AS dan Swiss franc yang masih eksis sebagai safe‐haven currency.
 
• S&P memangkas peringkat obligasi Jepang menjadi AA‐ dan menyatakan pemerintah negara itu tidak memiliki rencana yang pasti untuk mengatasi lonjakan utangnya. Beberapa
brokerages juga melihat prospek berlanjutnya pelemahan yen terhadap dollar, dimana Nomura memprediksi dollar AS akan naik ke 85 yen hingga akhir 2011 dan mencapai 90 yen
pada akhir 2012. Hingga akhir sesi New York, dollar tercatat naik 0,7% ke 82,86 yen <JPY=> setelah sempat menguat ke 83,22. Euro naik 1% ke level 113.82 yen <EURJPY=> setelah
sempat mencapai level 114.02 yang merupakan level tertinggi sejak 22 November. Sterling juga tercatat menguat 0.87% terhadap yen ke 131.95 setelah sempat mencapai level
132.67 yang merupakan level tertinggi sejak 13 Desember. Sementara euro naik 0,3% terhadap dollar AS ke 1.3732 <EUR=> setelah sempat menguat hingga 1,3760 yang
merupakan level tertinggi sejak 22 November.
 
• Emas anjlok tajam terbebani oleh menurunnya minat investor pada aset safe‐haven ditengah berkembangnya ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga, ini merupakan catatan performa
harian terburuk emas sejak 3‐pekan terakhir. Harga spot emas <XAU=> turun 2.5% ke 1313.49 USD per tory ounce setelah sempat anjlok ke 1308.70 yang merupakan level
terendah sejak 01 Oktober 2010 silam.
 
• Harga minyak dunia melemah terdesak rumor akan dinaikkannya output produksi OPEC untuk menekan harga lebih lanjut, minyak juga tertekan memburuknya data jobless claims
yang menurunkan ekspektasi permintaan minyak kedepannya. Harga minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Maret <CLc1> turun 1,92% di level 85.33 USD per barel.
 
• Outlook (Jumat, 28/Jan./2011): Bursa saham Asia diperkirakan akan dibuka beragam mencerminkan kehati‐hatian investor menyusul pemangkasan peringkat utang jangka
panjang Jepang oleh Standard & Poor's, sementara itu bursa Wall Street masih mungkin menginspirasikan penguatan menyusul positifnya laporan earning korporasi. Bursa saham
Jepang diperkirakan akan dibuka menguat menyusul pelemahan tajam nilai tukar yen yang potensial akan menopang saham‐saham eksportir.

Yen nursing losses, euro best of bad bunch

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY | Thu Jan 27, 2011 6:31pm EST

SYDNEY (Reuters) - The yen nursed broad losses on Friday after Standard & Poor's cut Japan's credit rating by a notch, though it fared relatively better against the U.S. dollar which had troubles of its own.

Late Thursday, Moody's reminded investors that it might turn negative on the U.S. rating outlook within the next two years given how the budget deficit continued to swell
"Once this knee-jerk reaction fades, the USD could be dragged down by its own fiscal concerns," said analysts at CitiFX in a note to clients. "We favor long positions in cross-JPY as a means of positioning for additional JPY depreciation."
Indeed, after initially rallying a big figure to as high as 83.22 yen, the dollar had lapsed to 82.87 in early Asia trade on Friday. In contrast, the euro held most of its 1 percent gain at 113.71 yen, after hitting a two-month peak around 114.00.
CitiFX said the downgrade could prove to be a catalyst for investors to focus more on the relative fiscal stance of major economies.
"Smaller countries that enjoy stronger fiscal conditions such as Canada and Australia should be the medium-term beneficiaries," they argued. "This argues for long cross-JPY positions."
One country doing particularly well has been Sweden where a barnstorming recovery has made the crown the best-performing currency so far this year. The euro hit a decade low on the crown this week, while the U.S. dollar dived to its lowest since September 2008.
The single currency was faring rather better on the U.S. dollar to stand at $1.3726, having been as far as $1.3760 for the fourth straight session of higher peaks.
It was supported in part by more hawkish sounding words from European Central Bank policy maker Lorenzo Bini Smaghi who said an expected rise in imported goods inflation could be ignored.
That was just the latest hawkish comment from ECB policy makers which have given the market the clear impression that the bank is likely to tighten well ahead of the Federal Reserve.
The next chart barriers for the euro are the November 22 high of $1.3786 and the peak from Nov 10/11 at $1.3826. Breaks here could unleash a further retracement to $1.4283.
A slew of Japanese data is due later Friday including consumer prices, retail sales and unemployment.
"Japan's data might get a bit more attention in the wake of the S&P news, but more likely not," said David Watt, a senior strategist at RBC Capital Markets, in a note. "Instead, the focus will be on U.S. data, including the first print of Q4 GDP."
Gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to have grown an annualised 3.5 percent last quarter, up from 2.6 percent the previous quarter and analysts have become increasingly bullish on the current year.
A strong number could help the U.S. dollar against the euro, but it would also tend to benefit risk trades in commodities and equities and growth-leveraged currencies like the Canadian dollar.