Headline News 10.01.11

AS & GLOBAL :
 
. Saham]saham di bursa AS jatuh pada Jumat akhir pekan lalu setelah putusan pengadilan dalam kasus penyitaan memicu aksi jual investor dari saham
perbankan, setelah sebelumnya laporan sektor ketenagakerjaan dirilis dibawah perkiraan. Meski demikian indeks S&P500 dan Dow Jones mencatat
penguatan beruntun dalam 6]pekan berturut. Pada sesi akhir pekan lalu indeks Dow Jones <DJI.> turun 22,55 poin atau 0,19% ke 11,674.76, S&P500 <.
SPX> melemah 2,35 poin atau 0,18% ke 1,271.50 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> turun 6,72 poin atau 0,25% ke 2,703.17. Dalam sepekan terakhir S&P500
mencatat kenaikan 1,1%, Dow Jones naik 0,8% dan Nasdaq naik 1,9%.
 
. Laporan dari Departemen Ketenagakerjaan AS memperlihatkan adanya kenaikan penambahan tenaga kerja diluar sektor pertanian sebesar 103.000,
dibawah perkiraan 175.000. Sementara sektor swasta memperlihatkan kenaikan sebesar 113.000 tenaga kerja. Data tersebut masih akan memberikan
dasar bagi The Fed untuk mempertahankan kebijakan program pembelian aset sebesar 600 miliar USD. Tingkat pengangguran mencapai penurunan
9,4%, prosentase terendah sejak Mei 2009 dan merupakan penurunan bulanan terbesar sejak April 1998.
 
. Belanja konsumen yang menguat, meningkatnya perdagangan dan aktifitas manufaktur telah menambah penguatan ekonomi AS, hal tersebut
mendasari pernyataan optimis Ben Bernanke saat tampil dihadapan anggota parlemen pada Jumat 07 Januari. Bernanke tidak memberikan sinyal jelas
pada arahan kebijakan moneter The Fed kedepan dan menambahkan bahwa penurunan tingkat pengangguran belum berjalan dalam akselerasi yang
signifikan.
 
. Tahun 2011 cukup berat bagi kinerja euro dengan prospek perjalanan sepekan kedepan yang juga masih suram untuk kinerja mata uang Uni]Eropa ini
dimana penjualan obligasi zona euro berpotensi akan kembali membebani performa euro. Euro tercatat melemah 3,3% terhadap dollar AS dalam
sepekan terakhir, merupakan level mingguan terburuk sejak pertengahan Agustus 2010. Dollar AS sempat melemah terhadap euro pasca laporan Non]
Farm Payrolls dirilis dibawah perkiraan, meskipun kemudian mendapat dukungan dari tingkat unemployment yang kembali mendukung kinerja dollar
AS. Dollar AS naik 2,2% terhadap yen dalam sepekan terakhir ke 83.01, mencatat penguatan mingguan terbesar sejak April 2010.
 
. Harga emas dunia melemah akhir pekan lalu menyusul rilis data sektor ketenagakerjaan AS yang gagal memicu kembalinya minat investor pada asetaset
safe haven seiring masih kuatnya proyeksi pemulihan ekonomi AS. Harga spot emas <XAU=> turun 0,1% kelevel 1,369.85 USD per troy ounce,
setelah menyentuh level terendah sejak 26 November 2010 di 1,352.30 USD per troy ounce.
 
. Harga minyak mentah AS merosot akhir pekan lalu dalam sesi perdagangan yang cukup volatile dimana penguatan nilai tukar dollar AS dan pelemahan
bursa saham menghapus penguatan minyak hingga 89,45 dollar pada awal sesi AS. Harga minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Februari <CLc1> turun
35 sen di 88,03 USD per barel. Pelemahan akhir pekan lalu hingga 87,25 USD merupakan level terendah sejak 17 Desember 2010, dan tercatat
melemah 3,7% dalam sepekan terakhir, presentase penurunan terbesar sejak November 2010 silam.
 
. Outlook (Senin ] Jumat, 10 ] 14/Jan./2011): Pekan ini akan dirilis sekitar 20]22 miliar euro obligasi oleh pemerintah Jerman, Belanda, Italia, Spanyol
dan Portugis. Penerbitan obligasi pemerintah Uni]Eropa tersebut akan mengungkapkan kemampuan pendanaan Portugis di pasar modal, dan akan
menjadi debut 2011 bagi Spanyol dan Italia di pasar obligasi. Tingkat imbal hasil yang ditawarkan pada penjualan obligasi pekan ini akan memainkan
peran penting pada kinerja euro. Dengan biaya pendanaan yang lebih tinggi akan berpotensi menambah tekanan pada mata uang Uni]Eropa tersebut
seiring pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lemah dan masih menguatnya kekhawatiran pada kemampuan beberapa negara untuk membayar hutang. Pelaku
pasar juga akan mencermati hasil sidang ECB dan BoE dalam pertengahan pekan ini.
 
. Di Amerika Serikat, dalam sepekan kedepan akan dirilis sejumlah indikator penting bagi ekonomi, dimana diantaranya data penjualan ritel pada Jumat
14 Januari. Optimisme pelaku pasar terhadap serangkaian data ekonomi yang positif diperkirakan masih akan mendukung sentimen bullish dollar AS
seperti yang terjadi dalam sepekan terakhir dimana momentum pemulihan ekonomi semakin menguat.

Gold steady on euro zone concerns

SINGAPORE | Sun Jan 9, 2011 7:54pm EST

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Gold held steady on Monday, supported by renewed worries about the euro zone's financial stability, but a stronger dollar weighed on sentiment, while holdings in the top exchange-traded fund continued to decline.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold gained $1.05 at $1,369.85 an ounce by 0041 GMT, after finishing the first week of 2011 with a 3.6 percent decline.
* U.S. gold futures was little changed at $1,370.3.
* U.S. employers hired fewer workers than expected in December and a surprisingly large number of people gave up searching for work, tempering the positive news of a big drop in the unemployment rate.
* The dollar index .DXY rose to its highest since Dec 1, as the euro plumbed four-month lows versus the greenback early in Asia after stops were triggered in thin trade as worries about Europe's debt crisis mounted.
* Pressure is growing on Portugal from Germany, France and other euro zone countries to seek financial help from the EU and IMF to stop the bloc's debt crisis from spreading, a senior euro zone source said on Sunday.
* Holdings in the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, continued to decline. It fell to a seven-month low of 1,271.164 tonnes by Jan 7.
* Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, fell to a one-month low of 10,839.69 tonnes.

PRICES

Precious metals prices 0041 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pct chg Turnover
Spot Gold 1369.85 1.05 +0.08 -3.49
Spot Silver 28.84 0.15 +0.52 -6.55
Spot Platinum 1737.00 6.00 +0.35 -1.73
Spot Palladium 756.50 8.00 +1.07 -5.38
TOCOM Gold 3668.00 -14.00 -0.38 -1.64 32096
TOCOM Platinum 4679.00 -6.00 -0.13 -0.36 2932
TOCOM Silver 77.20 -0.10 -0.13 -4.69 805
TOCOM Palladium 2028.00 -8.00 -0.39 -3.29 391
Euro/Dollar 1.2898
Dollar/Yen 82.95
TOCOM prices in yen per gram. Spot prices in $ per ounce.

Commodities show ties that bind

WASHINGTON | Sun Jan 9, 2011 8:04pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - If there was any doubt that the global economy remains tightly intertwined, rising commodity prices should put it to rest.

Both the U.S. unemployment rate and the amount of idle factory space are abnormally high, stark evidence that the economy is still well below its full potential.
But price pressures are building in commodities despite the ample U.S. economic slack, thanks in large part to demand from emerging markets. The Reuters Jefferies CRB index .CRB of commodities is up 28 percent since July.

The pressures are concentrated in food and energy, the two categories the Federal Reserve prefers to ignore when it examines current data to get a sense of future U.S. inflation trends. The central bank's reasoning is that those items are too volatile to provide a reliable guide.
That doesn't help businesses faced with the margin-bruising prospect of paying more for raw materials while customers expect discounts in a still-weak economy.

Figures this week are expected to show U.S. businesses absorbing the higher costs. Economists polled by Reuters think Thursday's producer price index will show a 0.8 percent gain, but consumer prices, due a day later, probably rose just 0.4 percent.
The gap looks even wider on a year-over-year basis, with PPI expected to show an increase of 3.8 percent while CPI is up just 1.3 percent.

Companies may not be willing to eat the higher costs forever, particularly with the economy showing some signs of picking up speed and consumer spending strengthening.
"My sense is manufacturers (will) try to be aggressive on pricing in the first half of the year," said Norbert Ore, chairman of the ISM manufacturing business survey committee, which produces a monthly poll on factory activity.
The latest ISM installment, released earlier in January, showed a big spike in prices paid for materials.

THANKS FOR SHARING

This is not the front edge of a U.S. inflationary storm. That would require a much stronger labor market capable of generating intense wage pressures.
But it does have Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's attention. He told lawmakers on Friday that the central bank was watching fuel prices in particular to ensure they don't put a strain on consumers' spending power.
"I think the main reason oil prices are up is the strength of emerging markets, the demand for energy from 

China and other fast-growing emerging market economies," Bernanke said.
Many of those emerging markets are having a very difficult time containing inflation -- and unlike the Fed they cannot overlook food and energy costs when setting policy.

Food tends to take up a larger share of household budgets in emerging markets than it does in the United States, so it often carries a bigger weight in consumer price indexes.
Barclays Capital economist Julian Callow said the surge in commodity prices was leading investors to question how much longer the world's central banks can keep interest rates ultra-low.

For the Fed, inflation is nowhere near levels that would spark tightening talk.
 "Currently we do not expect that the surge in commodity prices is sufficient to generate downside risks to our private consumption forecasts, though this will be a point to watch if it continues," Callow said.
Emerging markets are in a very different situation. China, India and a host of others have taken steps to try to keep prices in check and Callow expects more to come.

For Bernanke and his Fed cohorts, one concern is that emerging market pressures could eventually feed back into U.S. prices. Specifically, China's manufacturers must contend with not only rising commodity prices, but rising labor costs too.

Credit Suisse economists think China is nearing a point where its seemingly inexhaustible labor supply struggles to keep up with demand.
The one-child policy launched in the late 1970s thinned the pool of young workers, and factories are already finding they must offer huge wage increases to lure rural migrants.
"This is the beginning of the end of an era -- China as the anchor of global disinflation," Credit Suisse analyst Dong Tao wrote in a recent note to clients.

"The sharp turning of China's labor market will not only redefine China's own growth model, production, consumption and income distribution, but will also have a major impact on inflation, financial prices and the manufacturing outsourcing model for the rest of the world."