Headline News 21.04.11

US & GLOBAL 
• Pasar saham dunia mayoritas mengalami kenaikan tajam pada Rabu kemarin didorong oleh positifnya laporan keuangan perusahaan di AS dan Eropa. Sementara emas melonjak ke rekor tertinggi di atas $1.500/troy ounce berbarengan dengan rally di bursa komoditas dunia. Tekanan dolar AS dan positifnya lelang obligasi Spanyol mendorong euro ke areal tertinggi dalam 15 bulan. Mata uang komoditas, seperti Aussie dollar dan Canadian dollar, memperoleh benefit oleh kenaikan di bursa komoditas dunia tersebut.
 
• Laporan keuangan positif diikuti dengan outlook optimis perusahaan‐perusahaan global, seperti Intel AS, meningkatkan kepercayaan investor terhadap kinerja ekonomi global dan meredam kekhawatiran yang belakangan ini mengemuka, termasuk krisis utang Eropa dan AS. Bahkan laporan keuangan perusahaan global untuk kuartal pertama tahun 2011 tersebut mulai mempengaruhi proyeksi pasar terhadap potensi kinerja ekonomi tahun ini.
 
• Bursa saham dunia, yang tergabung dalam indeks MSCI, naik 2,1% melanjutkan kenaikan Selasa sebelumnya dan meng‐cover tekanan di awal minggu ini. Bursa saham AS mencapai kinerja terbaiknya dalam sebulan ini, terangkat oleh kenaikan indeks Dow Jones ke level tertingginya selama hampir 3 tahun.
 
• Perusahaan produsen memory chip terbesar dunia, Intel, merilis laporan pendapatan Q1 dan proyeksi penjualan kuartal berikutnya jauh di atas perkiraan. Sementara perusahaan Eropa, seperti perusahaan kosmetik terbesar dunia, L'Oreal, dan produsen mobil PSA Peugeot Citroen, juga merilis optimis laporan pendapatannya masing‐masing.
 
• Indeks FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> Eropa naik 1,9% ke level penutupan tertinggi dalam 1 minggu. Indeks bursa saham di negara‐negara berkembang (emerging market) <.MSCIEF> naik 2,6%. Namun Societe Generale dalam catatannya, seperti yang dilansir Reuters, mengatakan bahwa para hedge fund masih berhati‐hati terhadap bursa saham AS. Hal ini terlihat dengan masih adanya net‐short (tekanan jual) pada indeks S&P500 <SPX.> dan indeks Russell2000 <RUT.>, padahal mereka mulai melakukan net‐long (beli) pada ekuitas Jepang.
 
• Emas <XAU=> menembus rekor $1.500/troy ounce dan perak mencapai level tertinggi 31 tahun. Kekhawatiran tentang masalah utang pemerintah, inflasi dan gejolak di Timur Tengah menjadi pemicu kenaikan gradual emas belakangan ini. Sementara munculnya isu baru dari krisis utang Eropa, yakni resiko restrukturisasi utang Yunani, masih mengguncang pasar obligasi, mendorong kenaikan yield obligasi Yunani dan Portugis ke level tertinggi baru.
 
• EUR/USD naik di atas 1% ke $1,4546, melonjak signifikan dari low minggu ini di sekitar $ 1,4155. Euro juga menguat di atas 1% ke level 120,39
yen.
 
• AUD/USD naik 1,6% ke level $ 1,0692. Sementara dolar AS terkoreksi ke level terlemahnya atas dolar Kanada, C$0,9498. Indeks dolar AS, terhadap mata uang utama dunia, melemah hampir 1% ke 74,328.
 
• Melemahnya dolar AS tersebut menjadi salah satu pendorong naiknya harga komoditas, harga minyak mentah Brent untuk pengiriman Juni <LCOc1> naik sekitar $2,52 menjadi $ 123,85/barel, setelah mencapai level tertinggi kemarin, di $124,23. Harga minyak mentah AS Juni <CLc1> naik $3,10 menjadi $111,38/barel, tertinggi sejak April 18. Sebagian juga terdorong oleh rilis laporan persediaan minyak mentah AS yang turun untuk pertama kalinya dalam tujuh minggu.


GOLD & COMMODITIES 
• Emas naik diatas level $1500 per ons Rabu lalu untuk pertama kalinya yang pernah ada karena dollar AS merosot, oil naik, kekhawatiran berkenaan dengan outlook ekonomi AS yang mendorong permintaan pada metal sebagai safe haven dan kenaikan inflasi yang mendorong permintaan Asia.
 
• The Reuters‐Jeffries CRB index <.CRB> mencatatkan kenaikan terbesar hariannya dalam dua minggu karena harga komoditas mengalami rally.
 
• Spot gold <XAU=> mencatakan level puncaknya $1505,40 per ons dan diperdagangkan pada level $1501,10 per ons pada pukul 1403 GMT, terhadap level $1493,90 yang terjadi pada penutupan New York Selasa sebelumnya. U.S. gold futures untuk pengiriman bulan Juni <GCv1> naik $6.70 per ons ke level $1501,80.
 
• Silver mencatatkan kenaikan melebihi gold, memperluas kinerja kenaikannya yang terlihat the grey metal telah outperform daripada precious metals lainnya tahun ini. Silver <XAG=> mencapai level tertingginya dalam 31‐tahun ke level $44.79 per ons dan terakhir diperdagangkan pada level $44.72 terhadap level $43.89.
 
• Harga emas naik 5 persen bulan April dan kelihatan memperluas kenaikannya karena ketertarikan pada metal sebagai safe haven dari resiko yang didorong oleh pembicaraan bahwa Yunani kemungkinan untuk merestrukturisasi utangnya dan Standard & Poor's mengancam menurunkan peringkat America's triple‐A credit rating.
 
• "Gold has been acting as a currency in its own right, and that is why we are up at $1,500," kata Simon Weeks, kepala precious metals pada Bank of Nova Scotia. "There is an awful lot of bad news in the price. The S&P comment the other day has given us the final kicker to get up here."
 
• Rasio gold:silver – jumlah dari silver ounces yang dibutuhkan untuk membeli ounce dari gold – untuk sementara melemah ke level terendahnya sejak tahun 1983 yang berada dibawah 34.
 
• "The last time silver was this expensive in relation to gold was almost 28 years ago," kata Commerzbank dalam catatannya. "Both precious metals are still reaping the benefit of the news of recent weeks and days."
 
• Platinum <XPT=> berada pada level $1800,99 per ons terhadap level $1761,50, sementara itu palladium <XPD=> di level $754.97 terhadap level $726.95.

Gold powers above $1,500 as inflation worries mount

NEW YORK | Wed Apr 20, 2011 5:05pm EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gold rallied above $1,500 an ounce for the first time on Wednesday, extending this week's record run as investors hedged growing inflation risks and bought into a broad commodities rally as the dollar slumped.

Mounting evidence of quickening inflation in major Asian economies such as China and India were echoed in Latin America on Wednesday, with Brazilian prices nearing a government ceiling and Mexico's yearly rate exceeding a key target.
The break-even rates on U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), which measures investors' inflation expectations, rose for a second day.

A second day of deep losses for the dollar and rallies in oil and grain markets that fueled further inflation concerns also buoyed bullion, which once again rose in tandem with riskier assets like equities as investors turned to gold as a store of value.

"The U.S. government at this point of time has not corrected its fiscal imbalance, and the Federal Reserve continues to maintain exceedingly loose monetary policy, which has the risk of further debasing the dollar," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist of broker-dealer Janney Montgomery Scott, which manages $53 billion in client assets.

Gold prices tend to rise with a declining dollar.
Spot gold rose to an all-time high of $1,505.70 an ounce. It was last up 0.4 percent at $1,500.50 by 3:31 p.m. EDT, having risen almost 4 percent over the past eight days. The metal is set for its 11th successive quarterly gain.

While well below their inflation adjusted highs of more than $2,200 struck in 1980 -- when bullion prices spiked in response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan -- gold has doubled since the lows of 2008 and risen six-fold since 2001.

Silver also surged above $45 for the first time since 1980, when the Hunt Brothers of Texas cornered the silver market.

Gold has notched new records for four consecutive days, aided in large part by Monday's threat of a downgrade to the United States' triple-A credit rating.

"This is just a continuation of a longer-term move being driven by worldwide monetary policies and specifically here in the United States," said Michael Cuggino, portfolio manager of Permanent Portfolio Funds with $12.5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"Is the U.S. debt ceiling going to be raised? If the debt ceiling is not raised, what happens to the U.S. debt when it matures?" Cuggino asked.

The White House and congressional leaders must agree on a deal on raising the $14.3 trillion cap on borrowing in the next few weeks or the United States will be at risk of defaulting on its debt, which would have dire consequences both for the country and global markets.

INFLATION PRESSURE CREEPING UP

Signs of simmering inflation across the world underpin gold. The break-even rates on the expected new five-year U.S. TIPS rose for a second day to 2.36 percent, roughly 1 basis point higher than late Tuesday.

In Brazil, annual inflation sped dangerously near a government ceiling in the month to mid-April, while Mexico yearly inflation rate climbed above policymakers' target rate of 3.0 percent as investors prepare for higher borrowing costs early next year.

Gold buying in the Asian countries is being fueled by rising consumer incomes and higher inflation. Both China and India reported higher than expected inflation last week.

While gold investors in Western markets have been motivated chiefly by risk aversion in recent years, the precious metal is a much more deeply established asset in Asia, being bought in the form of bullion bars and coins. India and China are by far the world's biggest bullion consumers.

DOLLAR, CREDIT RATING IN FOCUS

The metal is expected to be underpinned by uncertainty over how the United States will adjust monetary policy after the Federal Reserve's $600 billion government bond-buying program -- known as quantitative easing -- comes to an end in June.

If the S&P eventually cuts its long-term rating on the United States, it will weigh heavily on the U.S. dollar, often used as a global reserve currency, and economic stability throughout the world - a perfect recipe for gold rally.

Gold has long been seen as the ultimate haven from risk. During the financial crisis that rattled markets in 2009 and 2010 it was heavily bought on that basis, but its rally has since taken on a momentum of its own, luring more and more speculators who have begun to view it as a one-way bet.

"Gold has been acting as a currency in its own right, and that is why we are up at $1,500," said Simon Weeks, head of precious metals at the Bank of Nova Scotia.