Headline News 17.03.11

US & GLOBAL 
• Bursa saham AS jatuh ke teritori negatif dan mencatat penurunan terendah untuk 2011 ini menyusul dampak dari kekhawatiran bahwa krisis nuklir di Jepang akan terus menekan
sentimen bursa saham global. Ketidakpastian tentang kondisi Jepang membuat investor mengalihkan investasinya ke aset yang lebih aman seperti obligasi. Indeks Dow Jones
<DJI.> turun 242,12 poin atau 2,04% ke 11,613.30, S&P500 <. SPX> turun 24,99 poin atau 1,95% ke 1,256.88 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> turun 50,51 poin atau 1,89% ke 2,616.82.
 
• Harga emas naik tipis dan gagal rebound dari penurunan tajam pada awal pekan ini. Investor bursa ekuitas yang panik terhadap kondisi global saat ini memutuskan menjual
kepemilikannya pada emas untuk menutupi kerugian pada perdagangan di bursa ekuitas. Harga spot <XAU=> emas naik 0,2% ke 1,399.30 USD per troy ounce.
 
• Harga minyak dunia naik 2% sebagai dampak dari respon keras pemerintah Bahrain terhadap para demonstran dalam kerusuhan yang kembali menyulut kekhawatiran akan
kondisi keamanan di Timur Tengah yang potensial menghambat pasokan minyak. Harga minyak Brent untuk April <LCOc1> naik 2.1 USD ke 110,62 USD per barel, berhasil
rebound dari penurunan harian terbesar dalam 13‐bulan pada sesi Selasa 15 Maret ke 107.35 USD per barel. Sementara itu harga minyak Crude AS <CLc1> naik 80 sen ke 97,98
USD per barel.
 
• Yen berhasil membukukan rekor tertinggi sepanjang masa terhadap dollar AS, karena meningkatnya kekhawatiran atas krisis nuklir di Jepang, dimana investor terus mengamati
apakah pemerintah Jepang akan segera mengambil langkah taktis guna membendung kenaikan mata uang tersebut. Dolar AS turun lebih dari 3.8% ke persen menjadi 77,60 yen
<JPY=>, menembus rekor terendah sebelumnya di 79.75 yang tercatat pada 19 April 1995. Pada perpindahan dari pasar New York ke pasar New Zealand ‐ Australia & pasar
Asia, USD/yen bahkan sempat tercatat melemah mendekati level 76.
 
• Para pejabat berwenang Jepang tengah berusaha keras untuk menangani krisis nuklir di Jepang dengan menempuh berbagai macam cara. Kepala pengawas nuklir dunia
mengatakan bahwa meskipun masih belum akurat untuk menyatakan kondisi yang saat ini terjadi di Jepang telah "berada di luar kendali" namun pihaknya menyatakan situasi
nuklir Jepang saat ini "sangat serius." Investor global telah melakukan pembelian besar‐besaran terhadap yen sejak gempa akhir pekan lalu, karena investor Jepang dan
internasional memangkas posisi beli terhadap mata uang dengan imbal hasil yang lebih tinggi dan aset beresiko lainnya seperti Aussie dollar, yang kebanyakan didanai dengan
pinjaman murah dengan yen Jepang.
 
• Pelaku pasar saat ini berharap otoritas Jepang akan melakukan intervensi guna menahan laju penguatan yen, karena dengan nilai tukar yen yang kuat akan membuat ekspor
Jepang kurang kompetitif dan memberikan tekanan lebih lanjut pada perekonomian. Terakhir kali otoritas Jepang melakukan intervensi di bursa mata uang dunia adalah pada 15
September 2010 dimana menghabiskan sekitar 22 milyar USD menjadi melemahkan yen, yang saat itu diperdagangkan mendekati level 83 per dolar. Dengan rally tajam yen
dalam beberapa hari terakhir ini, para analis memperkirakan gempa kemungkinan akan memaksa Bank of Japan untuk mempertahankan kebijakan moneter stimulatifnya lebih
lama, bahkan meskipun berbagai bank sentral utama dunia lainnya telah mengisyaratkan kesiapan untuk menaikkan suku bunga. Euro turun 1,8% ke 110,87 yen <EURJPY=> dan
turun 0,8% terhadap dollar AS ke 1,3887 <EUR=>. Dollar AS, mencapai rekor terendah terhadap Swiss franc ke 0.9072 franc <CHF=>.


JAPAN

• Yen mendekati level puncaknya terhadap dollar AS Rabu lalu, tetapi analis mengatakan ekspektasi Jepang akan mengintervensi untuk melemahkan mata uang jika akan menguat
kemungkinan memberikan kesempatan yang baik untuk buy the greenback.
 
• Dollar AS merosot ke level terendahnya dalam empat bulan pada level 80.45 yen <JPY=>, dan BNP Paribas technical strategist Andrew Chaveriat mengatakan dengan menembus
level terendahnya bulan November level 80.25 dan kemudian 80 dapat membawa ke level terendah berikutnya level 79.75 yang berada dalam jangkauan, untuk mengikuti level
berikutnya 77.05.
 
• Gempa dahsyat Jepang dan krisis nuklir yang mendalam dapat menghasilkan kerugian hingga $200 milyar pada negara ketiga ekonomi terbesar didunia ini tetapi pengaruh global
masih kuat dalam lima hari ini setelah tsunami besar menyapu pantai timur laut (Jepang).
 
• Perancis Rabu lalu mengatakan bahwa Menteri keuangan G7 dan bank sentral akan mendiskusikan pengaruh ekonomi dari gempa bumi Jepang, termasuk kemungkinan langkahlangkah
untuk menenangkan pasar finansial.

Yen powers to all-time high, Japan may intervene

TOKYO/SINGAPORE | Thu Mar 17, 2011 12:33am EDT

TOKYO/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The yen soared to a record high of 76.25 against the dollar on Thursday, reaching levels that may force more market players to unwind positions and test the resolve of Japanese authorities threatening intervention to stem currency strength.

A break through the previous record of 79.75 triggered a cascade of stop-loss and algorithmic selling of the dollar, sending the yen surging in illiquid trade in the hours between the U.S. and Asian trading days.
Dollar/yen clawed back to near 77.50 on buying by Japanese importers and some retail margin traders, but the huge earlier drop to the record was seen prompting other investors to shed long positions in higher-yielding currencies, traders said.

The Japanese margin traders were cited as one of the main factors behind the plunge in the dollar as stop-loss orders were triggered in their leveraged bets in currencies like the Australian dollar.
Just the day before, Japanese margin traders had built up long positions in dollar/yen totaling $2.8 billion, according to data from the Tokyo Financial Exchange. Total long positions in major currencies including dollar/yen were a record $8.25 billion.

Traders also said that foreign investors were scrambling to get hold of yen to settle margin calls on bets on Japanese shares deeply in the red, forcing them to turn to spot currency at times as well as forwards and cross-currency swaps.

With a high risk of Japanese authorities intervening if the yen rises further from current levels, some market players were waiting for an intervention-sparked spike in dollar/yen before unloading positions, traders said.
A stronger currency risks compounding Japan's economic troubles at a time when it is struggling to contain a worsening nuclear crisis, convincing many market players it was only a matter of time before Japanese authorities intervened against further yen strength.

Junya Tanase, foreign exchange strategist at JPMorgan Chase in Tokyo, said there was a feeling in the market that the moves had gone too far in a short period of time and intervention was likely.
"There is a real possibility that authorities would intervene to calm the markets, though I don't think it will be heavy," Tanase said.

Japan's finance minister blamed speculation for the yen spike and said he was closely watching markets, a warning that the Bank of Japan may soon be given the signal to buy dollars.
Group of Seven nations will discuss possible steps to calm markets roiled by Japan's crisis at 7 a.m. Tokyo time on Friday.
FX analysts at Citigroup said there was an "extremely high" risk of intervention in the next 24 hours.

While the escalating nuclear crisis and subsequent rush for safety was the initial spur for the yen surge, the move higher was almost all about positioning.
All sorts of exotic option and structured products were stopped out, on top of the unwind of the leveraged long trades held by the margin traders.
During the surge, traders said the market was disorderly. Liquidity evaporated and bids were pulled, leaving huge gaps in the charts.

"It's mayhem out there," said one trader at an Australian bank in Sydney. "The yen's been moving a big figure a second on occasions. A lot of people are crying out for the central banks to step in."
The dollar's collapse cracked the previous record of 79.75 struck in 1995 in the months following the Kobe earthquake.

The yen also flew on the crosses, jumping around 6 big figures on the Aussie to as far as 74.50 yen, a six-month high, before clawing back to 78.05 yen.
The Aussie has shed over 7 percent against the yen so far this week as investors sell it as proxy for risk and global growth.

An unwind of yen-funded carry trades has driven the Japanese currency higher all week, with few signs yet of the Japanese investor repatriation of funds in foreign assets that many are expecting to help cover costs from the crisis.
The cost of hedging against a further yen rise jumped, with implied volatility on one-month dollar/yen and Aussie/yen options reaching near 20 percent.

Japanese officials played down the risks of such repatriation on Thursday, with Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano saying the yen was driven by speculative moves and not repatriation.
"I would assume that certainly the carry trade is being unwound," said Dan Fuss, vice chairman of Loomis Sayles, which oversees $150 billion in assets.
The Aussie was at $0.9802 and fell as far as $0.9705 on Thomson Reuters Matching, a three-month low and a huge reversal from $1.0143 at the end of last week.

The euro/dollar pair was a relative sideshow at $1.3920.
Japan's nuclear crisis reached a new danger level as a U.S. official said one of the pools containing highly radioactive spent fuel rods at the stricken plant had run dry.