AS & GLOBAL
. Bursa saham AS melemah tipis pada sesi Kamis 06 Januari tertekan turunnya penjualan ritel dan naik tajamnya dollar AS ditengah aksi wait and see investor menyambut data sektor ketenagakerjaan AS, Beberapa perusahaan ritel terbesar tidak berhasil mencapai penjualan sesuai estimasi pada Desember silam, berita tersebut kemudian membebani saham-saham ritel.Sub-indeks ritel S&P <.RLX> anjlok 1.6% Indeks Dow jones <DJI.> turun 26,65 poin atau 0,22% ke 11,697.24, S&P500 <.SPX> turun 2,71 poin atau 0,21% ke 1,273.85 dan Nasdaq <.IXIC> naik 7,69 poin atau 0,28% ke 2,709.89.
. Euro merosot ke level terendah dalam kurun waktu 5 pekan terakhir terhadap dollar AS, dan diperkirakan pelemahan tersebut masih akan berlanjut jika data sektor ketenagakerjaan AS dirilis lebih baik dari perkiraan. Optimisme atas data ekonomi AS telah mengangkatproyeksi secara luas pada ekonomi negara Paman Sam tersebut, sementara kondisi yang kontras justru terjadi di Eropa yang masih dibayangi kekhawatiran mengenai krisis utang kawaasan. Euro merosot setelah berhasil anjlok dibawah level support 1,30, pada akhir sesi New York, euro tercatat melemah 1% ke 1,3018 < EUR=>. Euro berada dibawah tekanan jual setelah yields spreads antara imbal hasil obligasi negara-negara kawasan Uni-Eropa dengan imbal hasil obligasi Jerman melebar.
. Klaim untuk fasilitas pengangguran di AS dalam sepekan terakhir mengalami kenaikan lebih dari perkiraan, meskipun pada rata-rata empat minggu terakhir mengalami pernurunan kelevel terendah dalam kurun lebih dari 2 tahunterakhir yang menunjukan bahwa pasar tenaga kerja juga membaik.
. Harga emas kembali anjlok dalam penurunan beruntun dalam 4-sesi berturut-turut menyusul penguatan dollar AS seiring menguatnya outlook ekonomi AS (yang menurutkan minat pada aset save-haven), meskipun akhirnya aksi technical buying berhasil membatasi pelemahan emas. harga spot emas <XAU=> turun 0.4% ke level 1,371.70 USD per troy ounce.
. Harga minyak dunia anjlok 2.4% anjlok hingga dibawah level 89 USD per barel terdesak penguatan nilai tukar dollar AS dan lemahnya pasar ekuitas yang menurunkan minat beli investor pada komoditas tersebut. Harga minyak mentah untuk kontrak pengiriman Februari <CLc1>ditutup melemah 1.92 USD dilevel 88.12 USD per barel.
. Outlook (Jumat,07/Jan./2011):
Bursa saham Asia diuperkirakan akan dibuka beragam dengan minimnya dorongan kuat dari bursa Wall Street untuk berlanjutnya rally, meskipun khusus untuk pasar Jepang diperkirakan masih akan memperoleh manfat dari pelemahan nilai tukar yen terhadap dollar AS dan diharapkan akan mendukung kenaikan saham-saham eksportir Jepang. Dengan kenaikan tajam indeks S&P500 hingga 8% sejak awal desember silam, investor diperkirakan akan mencari dukungan bagi aksi ambil untung jika laporan sektor ketenagakerjaan dirilis dibawah perkiraan. Perkembangan sektor tenaga kerja di AS merupakan salah satu faktor kunci bagi pertimbangan kebijakan moneter The Fed dan apabila terjadi perbaikan yang cukup signifikan maka akan membuka kemungkinan bank sentral AS tersebut akan mengubah besaran ataupun cakupan dari program pembelian aset. para pengamat memperkirakan adanya pergeseran kebijakan The Fed mungkin akan menguntungkan dollar AS. Selain laporan sektor ketenagakerjaan AS, perlu diamati pernyataan Chairman The Fed - Ben Bernanke mengenai prospek ekonomi AS di hadapan Komite Anggaran Senat setelah rilis laporan sektor ketenagakerjaan AS.
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Friday, January 7, 2011
Gold falls on improved outlook; payrolls eyed
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gold fell for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday as the dollar rose on signs the U.S. economic outlook was improving, but technical buying lifted prices off their lows.
Strong economic reports this week including purchasing managers' indexes, new factory orders and upbeat private-sector jobs data have driven the dollar higher, diminishing gold's safe-haven appeal. The data raised expectations that Friday's key U.S. jobs data will beat forecasts.
"There is always the fear that once the rebound in the U.S. gets cemented and attracts higher interest rates, investors start shifting money out of gold and into equities," said Mitsubishi analyst Matthew Turner.
The S&P 500 .SPX stock index was on track for its sixth straight week of gains, up more than 1 percent so far this week even after Thursday's slight retreat.
Some investors unwound solid gains made on thin volume in gold and other precious metals over the holidays. The year-end rally saw silver hit a series of 30-year highs and palladium touch a near 10-year peak. Gold had come within $10 of a new all-time high on Monday.
Spot gold fell 0.4 percent to $1,371.70 an ounce at 3:28 p.m. (2028 GMT) U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled down $2 at $1,371.70.
Spot silver fell 0.7 percent to $29.05 an ounce.
Trading volume steadied after noticeably busier sessions earlier this week. U.S. gold futures volume was 5 percent above its 30-day average, but COMEX silver turnover was about 10 percent below the 30-day average.
A larger-than-expected rise in weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday did little to alter investors' view that the economy is gaining traction, putting gold under pressure.
Oil prices lost $2 to $88 a barrel on the dollar strength, and industrial metals led by copper also fell 2 percent. The Reuters-Jefferies CRB .CRB index fell over 1 percent after the global commodities benchmark zigzagged in a volatile week.
Some analysts said underlying risk in the global economy should still boost gold to record highs despite better U.S. economic data.
"The debt problems in the euro zone's periphery haven't gone way... A tussle over the U.S. debt ceiling has the potential to further roil markets, lending support to gold in the next 2-3 months," said Peter Buchanan, senior economist at CIBC World Markets.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner stepped up pressure on Republican lawmakers to raise the nation's $14.3 trillion debt limit, warning failure to act would lead to an economic catastrophe.
TECHNICAL BUYING
On charts, gold cut early losses, bouncing off lows at around $1,362 an ounce, a key support level in line with a series of lows set in December, said Adam Hewison, president of MarketClub.com.
Hewison said gold's bounce up from session lows signals that it has found support after falling this week.
"Every time when gold had gotten down to these levels, it's very close to making a reversal higher," he said.
Gold has risen toward its record $1,430,95 an ounce level three times since November but failed each time.
Investment demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds remained lackluster, with holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, New York's SPDR Gold Trust, dropping by nearly four tones on Wednesday to their lowest in early June.
Barclays Capital raised its 2011 forecast to $1,495 an ounce from a previous view of $1,445 in November.
"A clouded macro environment against a backdrop of low interest rates, growing uncertainty surrounding currency debasement and medium-term inflation fears as well as geopolitical tensions continue to stoke investor's appetite for a portfolio diversifier and a safe haven," Barcap's precious metals analyst Suki Cooper said in a note on Thursday.
Platinum inched up 0.1 percent to $1,727.74 an ounce and palladium dropped 1.8 percent to $759.47 after rising above $800 an ounce on Monday, its highest in nearly 10 years.
Prices at 3:30 p.m. EST (2030 GMT)
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