Headline News 13.12.10

AS & GLOBAL :

• Bursa saham AS menguat akhir pekan lalu, dimana indeks S&P500 mencapai level tertinggi sejak 2008 silam, dan Nasdaq mengalami kenaikan
beruntun dalam 8‐sesi terakhir dan mencetak level tertinggi sejak Desember 2007 silam. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 40,26 poin atau 0,35% ke
11,410.32, indeks S&P500 <. SPX> naik 7,40 poin atau 0,60% ke 1,240.40 dan indeks Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 20,87 poin atau 0,80% ke 2,637.54. Dalam
sepekan terakhir, indeks membukukan keuntungan, dimana Dow naik 0,2%, S&P500 naik 1,3% dan Nasdaq menguat 1,8%.

• Rilis data ekonomi AS akhir pekan lalu menguatkan sinyalemen pemulihan ekonomi AS dimana data menunjukkan sentimen konsumen naik lebih dari
yang diharapkan pada awal Desember ‐ menurut survei Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan, sedangkan harga impor pada bulan November naik
dengan percepatan tertinggi dalam setahun. Sinyal positif lainnya datang dari Departemen Perdagangan, yang memperlihatkan defisit perdagangan
AS untuk Oktober menyempit lebih dari yang diperkirakan. Sementara itu berita‐berita dari negara lain turut membantu mengangkat kinerja ekuitas,
setelah data menunjukkan impor dan ekspor Cina melonjak pada bulan November dan pinjaman perbankan melampaui proyeksi dan investasi
properti meningkat. Cina meningkatkan rasio kecukupan modal bagi perbankan, namun mempertahankan suku bunga.

• Euro diperkirakan akan melanjutkan pelemahannya terhadap dollar AS dalam sepekan kedepan terpengaruh pertemuan para pemimpin Uni Eropa
yang akan meningkatkan kekhawatiran tentang perpecahan dalam blok Uni‐Eropa dalam menyelesaikan krisis utang. Euro anjlok ke 1,3150 pada
akhir pekan lalu dan mencatat penurunan 1,3% dalam sepekan terakhir terhadap dollar AS. Sementara itu terhadap yen, dollar AS naik 0,3% ke 83,94
<JPY=EBS> dan tercatat menguat 1,6% dalam sepekan terakhir.

• Harga emas dunia melemah pada akhir pekan lalu menyusul langkah pemerintah China yang menaikkan rasio kecukupan modal perbankan dan
diikuti aksi ambil untung investor menyusul data AS yang menunjukkan kepercayaan konsumen meningkat dan defisit perdagangan yang menyusut.
Dalam sepekan terakhir, emas turun lebih dari 2% yang merupakan penurunan mingguan terbesar dalam hampir 2‐bulan terakhir. Harga spot emas
<XAU=> turun 0,1% ke 1,385.92 USD per troy ounce. Sementara itu harga minyak melemah pada akhir pekan lalu dalam sesi yang cukup volatile
dimana terdapat kekhawatiran bahwa langkah pemerintah China untuk menahan laju inflasi akan menghambat permintaan energi. Minyak mentah
AS untuk pengiriman Januari <CLc1> turun 58 sen ke 87,79 USD per barel. Meskipun sempat mencapai level tertinggi 26‐bulan di 90,76 USD per barel
pada Selasa 07 Desember lalu, namun dalam sepekan terakhir harga minyak mentah AS turun 1,57%.

• Outlook (Senin ‐ Jumat, 13‐17/Des./2010): Pekan ini perhatian pelaku pasar akan tertuju pada beberapa figur penting, diantaranya sidang The Fed
pada Selasa 14 Desember yang diperkirakan akan membahas rencana penggelontoran dana senilai 600 miliar USD untuk mempertahankan likuiditas
pada sistem keuangan AS. The Fed diperkirakan tidak akan mengubah rencananya tersebut, namun dengan adanya program pemangkasan pajak
yang diperkirakan akan menurunkan kemungkinan bahwa The Fed akan melakukan ekspansi terhadap program QE2 lanjutannya.

• Selanjutnya adalah pertemuan EU summit akhir tahun yang akan digelar pada Kamis‐Jumat 16‐17 Desember mendatang di Brussel dengan agenda
utama mengenai krisis obligasi Uni‐Eropa yang telah melanda sejak awal tahun dimana Yunani akhirnya mendapat bailout dan pada November
akhirnya Irlandia juga memperoleh bailout. Paket bantuan taktis senilai 750 miliar euro (1 trilliun USD) telah disepakati EU/International Monetary
Fund, namun pelaku pasar masih mempertanyakan apakah jumlah tersebut cukup untuk menalangi krisis yang dapat menyebar ke Portugis, Spanyol
dan bahkan Italia. Pasar bahkan cenderung skeptis pada hasil pertemuan tersebut karena Jerman dan Perancis menolak menaikkan besaran program
diatas 750 miliar euro, dan belum akan ada mekanisme permanen guna menangani krisis obligasi Uni‐Eropa, yang potensial menurunkan minat
investor pada aset beresiko.

• Pekan depan pemerintah Irlandia akan meminta persetujuan parlemen untuk paket penyelamatan Uni‐Eropa/IMF senilai 85 miliar euro Uni Eropa,
dimana terdapat kekhawatiran oposisi‐Partai Buruh diperkirakan akan menentang langkah tersebut. Selain itu, pelaku pasar juga akan menantikan
sejumlah data ekonomi untuk menangkap seberapa kuat sinyal pemulihan ekonom Amerika, diantara data retail sales, industrial production and
laporan inflasi.

Backers and critics see passage of Obama tax deal

WASHINGTON | Sun Dec 12, 2010 6:18pm EST

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's tax deal with Republicans will likely win grudging passage in the Congress, backers and critics agreed on Sunday, after Obama clashed with liberals in his own party who branded it a giveaway to the rich.
White House adviser David Axelrod said he believed the House of Representatives would approve the sweeping package without significant changes, despite loud complaints from liberal Democrats that Obama conceded too much to Republicans.
The Senate is expected to pass it early this week, then send it to the House for consideration.
"We believe that when it comes back to the House that we will get a vote and it will prevail there," Axelrod said on CNN's "State of the Union."
Obama's $856 billion tax deal, struck after Republicans made major gains in November congressional elections, extends all tax cuts passed under the Republican administration of President George W. Bush, including those for wealthier Americans, that are set to expire on January 1.
Democrats had hoped to allow tax rates to rise for the wealthiest 2 percent of U.S. households to avoid increasing the country's record-high deficit, and were particularly angered by what they see as an excessively generous tax rate for wealthy estates.
But proponents note that the package also includes an extension of jobless benefits and other tax breaks aimed at lower-income families and would renew a wide array of subsidies and breaks for businesses and renewable energy.
"It's quite possible the tax cut extension will be passed, but not with my vote," said Democratic Representative Elijah Cummings.
"The president is going to be depending largely on Republicans to do this. They love this deal," he said on CNN.
In a caucus last week, House Democrats rejected the tax deal and chanted, "Just say no!"

'BITTER PILL'
Despite the opposition from Democrats, Axelrod said he did not expect significant changes to the deal.
"We can't change it in major ways and expect that it is going to pass. ... I expect that the framework that was agreed to will be largely what is voted on," he said.
White House economic adviser Austan Goolsbee also predicted the package would pass.
"I understand the feeling that it is a bitter pill to swallow, the high-income tax cuts," Goolsbee told NBC's "Meet the Press."
 "But what the president was able to get that is substantially bigger than that and important for the economy -- whether it's incentives for investment for firms, whether it's a payroll tax cut for 155 million workers ... is really important and we can't let that go away," he said.
Economists say the package, especially the payroll tax cut, could boost the sluggish economy at a time when Congress has no appetite for stimulus spending. Its cost would exceed the $814 billion stimulus package passed in 2009 to fight the worst recession since the 1930s.
Axelrod said Obama will continue talking to individual lawmakers.
"What he's going to say to them is there is an enormous amount of good in this package that will help their constituents, that will help the broader public and that will move the economy forward," Axelrod said.
Assistant Senate Democratic leader Dick Durbin said Democrats should "eat their spinach" and accept a deal because their influence will plummet when the new Congress convenes next month.
Republicans won control of the House and made gains in the Senate in November 2 congressional elections.
"We have to accept the reality. In three weeks, the world is going to change dramatically in favor of the Republicans," Durbin told CNN. "It is the only stimulus we can bring to this economy."
Representative Chris Van Hollen, appearing on "Fox News Sunday," said the House will vote on the tax deal but "people are looking at various alternatives."
But Republican Representative Paul Ryan, also on Fox, said Republicans would not dilute tax breaks Obama agreed to.
"No, we are not interested in changing this deal," said Ryan, who will chair the Budget Committee when the new Republican-majority Congress convenes.