LONDON | Thu Apr 14, 2011 10:25am EDT
LONDON (Reuters) - Surging inflation pressures and the natural disasters that ravaged Japan last month look unlikely to stall an ascendant global economy, a Reuters poll of around 350 economists showed on Thursday.
The survey of analysts from all over the world again showed the United States leading a rich-world recovery along with Canada, while respondents expect a jumble of strong and weak performances from the top European economies.
The world's third largest economy, Japan, will likely contract this quarter after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami that left nearly 28,000 dead or missing, also triggering a nuclear crisis that could last for months.
While economists are still digesting the ramifications of the disaster on global supply lines, many pointed to surging oil prices as the key risk for now.
"We've taken down our global growth forecasts over the last quarter very slightly, and that's on the back of higher oil prices," said Karen Ward, senior global economist at HSBC in London.
"The oil price impact is a net negative for the global economy, particularly for the United States. In the developed world, where wage growth is so weak, it already has dented U.S. consumer confidence and it will be an issue for consumer confidence elsewhere."
The poll showed global growth at 4.2 percent this year and 4.3 percent next year -- unchanged since the January poll.
That was just slightly less optimistic than the International Monetary Fund's forecast on Monday of 4.4 percent for this year. The IMF said oil prices and inflation posed new challenges to the progress of the world economy.
Just as finance ministers from the Group of 20 rich and emerging market nations meet in Washington, the latest Reuters survey showed rich-world economies will lag far behind India and China, which will see near double-digit rates of growth in 2011.
G20 finance ministers will be hoping to make progress on a plan to identify the countries that put the global economy at risk -- but that could be tricky with a fast-diverging array of economic policies and prospects.
Canada and the United States should lead the rich world recovery in 2011 with annual average growth rates of 3.0 and 2.9 percent, respectively. Even rising inflation pressure is unlikely to dent this view in the case of the U.S. economy.
"Inflation is going to be higher than most expect, but I do expect it to moderate some in 2012," said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer of Hugh Johnson Advisors LLC in Albany, New York. "Does this mean there is a genuine threat to the recovery? No."
On Monday, Brent crude hit a 32-month high above $127 a barrel, pushed higher by unrest in oil producer Libya. While it has since fallen, the commodity and energy rallies since the start of the year have sent gauges much higher, especially in Europe and emerging countries.
REBUILDING JAPAN
The Japan poll of around 30 economists showed the economy flatlining in the first quarter and declining 0.6 percent between April and June.
While they see the economy rebounding in the third quarter once the reconstruction effort gets into full swing, the nuclear crisis and consequent energy shortages will depress the economy for the next few months.
"Not only exports, but private consumption will decline. And unstable power supply will probably prompt companies to postpone capital spending," said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS Securities.
"Also a possible power shortage in the summer is seen weighing on consumer sentiment and pulling down spending, which could drag into the latter half of the year."
The Bank of Japan, which was already struggling to escape deflation before the disaster, will keep rates on hold until at least 2013.
The euro zone, which has already seen an interest rate hike this month in response to above-target inflation, will see mixed fortunes among its biggest economies.
While Germany could rival the growth rates expected of the North American economies with a 2.8 percent expansion this year, economists see the French economy growing 1.7 percent this year and Italy lagging behind with just 1.1 percent growth.
"Higher inflation and significant fiscal tightening will continue to constrain the recovery despite the resurgence in global manufacturing," said James Nixon at Societe Generale.
Overall, the 17-nation euro zone economy will expand around 1.7 percent this year, the poll showed.
Forecasters trimmed their 2011 UK growth forecasts for the third month running, as Britons toil under the strongest levels of inflation anywhere in the G7 and fierce austerity measures.
US & GLOBAL
• Harga obligasi dan dolar AS naik pada hari Rabu di tengah harapan bahwa pengurangan defisit $4 trilyun Presiden Barack Obama akan
menopang kelayakan kredit Amerika Serikat dan status cadangan devisa dolar. Harga minyak rebound, pulih dari dua hari penurunan,
setelah data inventory bahan bakar AS (gasoline) menunjukkan penurunan mingguan terbesar sejak Oktober 1998.
• Obama menetapkan kerangka waktu paling lama 12 tahun untuk program pengurangan defisit hingga $4 trilyun setelah dikatakannya
bahwa terus meningkatnya utang akan beresiko bagi lapangan kerja, merugikan ekonomi dan memaksa Washington untuk meminjam
lebih banyak dari negara lain seperti Cina.
• Pergulatan petinggi di pemerintahan AS belakangan ini mengenai bagaimana cara untuk mengatasi kesulitan jangka panjang fiskal
Amerika Serikat, membuat para investor enggan untuk berkomitmen saham dan aset berisiko lainnya karena ketidakpastian atas
ketahanan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan keuntungan global.
• Yield obligasi pemerintah AS untuk tenor 10‐tahun turun ke level terendah selama seminggu meskipun lelangnya minim di luar dugaan,
sementara dollar membukukan keuntungan versus yen dan euro. Wall Street berakhir datar, sedikit lebih tinggi dari perdagangan Selasa
sebelumnya setelah berjuang di sepanjang sesi kemarin di tengah keraguan atas perolehan keuntungan perusahaan. Kenaikan awal
pada saham AS melempem, meski ada laporan pertumbuhan laba yang kuat dari JPMorgan Chase & Co, bank terbesar ke‐2 AS. Analis
mempertanyakan apakah hasil dari JPMorgan, bank besar pertama di bursa Wall Street yang merilis laporan keuangannya untuk kuartal
pertama, akan berkelanjutan. Hal tersebut menghambat rebound di bursa Wall Street.
• Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> ditutup naik 0,06%, sedangkan Standard & Poor's 500 <SPX.> naik 0,02%. Indeks Nasdaq Composite Index
<IXIC.> naik 0,61%. Sementara indeks saham dunia, yang dihitung dalam indeks MSCI, naik 0,3%. Indeks FTSEurofirst 300, <FTEU3.>
untuk bursa saham terbaik Eropa ditutup naik 0,7%, setelah Selasa sebelumnya mengalami penurunan harian terbesar selama sebulan.
Saham perbankan Eropa naik, didorong oleh hasil JPMorgan. Sementara Indeks Nikkei <. N225> naik 0,9% di tengah tipisnya volume
perdagangan Rabu kemarin.
• Seperti saham, komoditas pun bergerak fluktuatif Rabu kemarin. Harga minyak mentah Brent <LCOc1> akhirnya naik lebih dari $1,50 ke
level $122,61 per barel setelah dua hari mengalami aksi sell‐off karena meningkatnya kekhawatiran bahwa tingginya harga akan
mengganggu demand. Harga minyak mentah AS <CLc1> ditutup naik di $ 107,38, menghapus penurunan di sore hari. Harga emas di
pasar spot <XAU=> ditutup naik sekitar $3 ke level $1456.74 per troy ounce.
• Dollar sedikit rebound terhadap yen setelah pemerintah Jepang menurunkan prospek ekonomi sebagai refleksi dari bencana gempa dan
tsunami besar bulan lalu. Ini merupakan pertama kalinya selama 6 bulan terakhir pemerintah Jepang melakukan hal tersebut. Pada hari
Selasa dolar mencatat penurunan harian terbesar dalam persentase selama empat bulan terakhir terhadap yen, sekitar 83.40‐an.
EUR/USD turun 0,3% ke level $ 1,4437, setelah sebelumnya sempat mencapai puncak selama 15‐bulan, di $ 1,4520.
• Namun secara keseluruhan sentimen terhadap dolar AS masih bearish karena selama ekspektasi bahwa The Fed AS akan mengalami
ketertinggalan dari bank‐bank sentral dunia lainnya dalam melakukan normalisasi kebijakan moneter – yakni dimulainya siklus kenaikan
suku bunga.
GOLD & COMMODITIES
• Emas naik di Eropa Rabu lalu, recovery setelah penurunan terbesar hariannya yang mendekati satu bulan karena dollar AS melemah
ditengah ekspektasi the Fed yang akan menjaga kebijakan moneter yang akomodatif saat ini.
• Metals consultancy GFMS mengeluarkan secara luas laporan antisipasi industri yang mengatakan gold's decade‐long price rally dapat
diatas level $1600 per ons sampai akhir tahun, karena hasrat investor terhadap emas menguat berikutnya.
• Perusahaan melihat harga emas rata‐rata dilevel $1455 per ons tahun ini dan berada dikisaran $1319‐1620 per ons, executive chairman
Philip Klapwijk mengatakan pada delegasi dalam Gold Survey 2011.
• Spot gold <XAU=> diperdagangkan pada level $1458,09 per ons pada pukul 1416 GMT, terhadap $1453,95 pada penutupan New York
Selasa lalu. U.S. gold futures untuk pengiriman bulan Juni <GCv1> naik $5.60 per ons ke level $1459,20.
• Silver <XAG=> berada pada level $40.34 per ons dari level $40.04. Platinum <XPT=> diperdagangkan pada level $1781 per ons terhadap
level $1765.70, sementara itu palladium <XPD=> pada level $764.97 terhadap $761.40 level sebelumnya.
WASHINGTON | Wed Apr 13, 2011 1:59pm EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama said on Wednesday that tackling the U.S. budget deficit would require broad sacrifice and said that he would refuse to renew Bush-era tax breaks for wealthier Americans.
"We cannot afford $1 trillion worth of tax cuts for every millionaire and billionaire in our society. And I refuse to renew them again," Obama said in remarks prepared for delivery.
