TOKYO | Tue Apr 12, 2011 7:51am EDT TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan put its nuclear calamity on a par with the world's worst nuclear disaster, Chernobyl, on Tuesday after new data showed that more radiation leaked from its earthquake-crippled power plant in the early days of the crisis than first thought.
Japanese officials said it had taken time to measure radiation from the plant after it was smashed by March 11's massive quake and tsunami, and the upgrade in its severity rating to the highest level on a globally recognised scale did not mean the situation had suddenly become more critical.
"The situation at the Fukushima Daiichi plant is slowly stabilizing, step by step, and the emission of radioactive substances is on a declining trend," Prime Minister Naoto Kan told a press briefing on Tuesday.
Kan said he wanted to move from emergency response to long-term rebuilding.
"A month has passed. We need to take steps toward restoration and reconstruction," he said.
He also called on opposition parties, whose help he needs to pass bills in a divided parliament, to take part in drafting reconstruction plans from an early stage.
The operator of the stricken facility appears to be no closer to restoring cooling systems at the reactors, critical to lowering the temperature of overheated nuclear fuel rods. Late on Tuesday, Japan's science ministry said small amounts of strontium, one of the most harmful and long-lasting radioactive elements, had been found in soil near Fukushima Daiichi.
Hidehiko Nishiyama, a deputy director-general of the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA), said the decision to raise the severity of the incident from level 5 to 7 -- the same as the Chernobyl disaster in Ukraine in 1986 -- was based on cumulative quantities of radiation released.
No radiation-linked deaths have been reported since the earthquake struck, and only 21 plant workers have been affected by minor radiation sickness, according to Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano.
"Although the level has been raised to 7 today, it doesn't mean the situation today is worse than it was yesterday, it means the event as a whole is worse than previously thought," said nuclear expert John Price, a former member of the Safety Policy Unit at the UK's National Nuclear Corporation.
"NOWHERE NEAR CHERNOBYL"
A level 7 incident means a major release of radiation with a widespread health and environmental impact, while a 5 level is a limited release of radioactive material, with several deaths, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Several experts said the new rating exaggerated the severity of the crisis.
"It's nowhere near that level. Chernobyl was terrible -- it blew and they had no containment, and they were stuck," said nuclear industry specialist Murray Jennex, an associate professor at San Diego State University in California.
"Their containment has been holding, the only thing that hasn't is the fuel pool that caught fire."
The blast at Chernobyl blew the roof off a reactor and sent large amounts of radiation wafting across Europe. The accident contaminated vast areas and led to the evacuation of well over 100,000 people.
Nevertheless, the increase in the severity level heightens the risk of diplomatic tension with Japan's neighbors over radioactive fallout. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told Kan on Tuesday he was "concerned" about the release of radiation into the ocean.
"If Japan mishandles this issue, especially if, to solve its own problems, it affects the safety of neighboring countries, then that will have a bad effect on relations at the government and public levels," said Sun Cheng, a professor specializing in Japanese politics and Sino-Japanese relations at the China University of Political Science and Law in Beijing.
Chinese worries have not reached that point yet, he said.
China has so far been sympathetic rather than angry, though it and South Korea have criticized the plant operator's decision to pump radioactive water into the sea, a process it has now stopped.
HUGE ECONOMIC DAMAGE
The March earthquake and tsunami killed up to 28,000 people and the estimated financial cost stands at $300 billion, making it the world's most expensive disaster.
Japan's economics minister warned the damage was likely to be worse than first thought as power shortages would cut factory output and disrupt supply chains.
The Bank of Japan governor said the economy was in a "severe state," while central bankers were uncertain when efforts to rebuild the northeast would boost growth, according to minutes from a meeting held three days after the earthquake struck.
NISA said the amount of radiation released into the atmosphere from the plant, 240 km (150 miles) north of Tokyo, was around 10 percent that of Chernobyl.
"Radiation released into the atmosphere peaked from March 15 to 16. Radiation is still being released, but the amount now has fallen considerably," said NISA's Nishiyama.
Lam Ching-wan, a chemical pathologist at the University of Hong Kong and member of the American Board of Toxicology, said this level of radiation was harmful.
"It means there is damage to soil, ecosystem, water, food and people. People receive this radiation. You can't escape it by just shutting the window," Lam said.
US & GLOBAL
• Harga minyak mentah turun tajam pada hari Senin di tengah kekhawatiran tingginya harga bisa mengikis permintaan dan mengancam pemulihan
ekonomi, sementara aksi jual saham energi dan kegelisahan menjelang musim rilis laporan pendapatan perusahaan kuartal pertama 2011
menekan bursa saham AS.
• Tekanan harga minyak mentah juga dipicu oleh Uni‐Afrika mengatakan pemimpin Libya Muammar Khadafi menyambut upaya untuk mengakhiri
perang sipil, termasuk gencatan senjata dalam waktu dekat, meskipun pemberontak mengatakan penyelesaian apapun akan menuntutnya
mundur. Para analis masih skeptis terhadap kondisi di Libya, meskipun kesepakatan damai dan upaya untuk mengakhiri perang sipil sudah di
depan mata. Menurut mereka masih perlu waktu untuk mengembalikan ekspor (minyak) Libya ke tingkat sebelum konflik. Sementara Goldman
Sachs tetap mengatakan kepada nasabahnya bahwa ada kemungkinan kuat harga komoditas akan berbalik, dan merekomendasikan untuk
mengambil keuntungan. Faktor lain, seperti pemilu di Nigeria, sebagai salah satu produsen minyak terbesar dunia, juga menurut Goldman akan
membatasi gerak naik harga‐harga minyak saat ini.
• Harga minyak mentah Brent untuk Mei <LCOc1> berakhir $2,67 lebih rendah ke $123,98 per barel, setelah mencapai puncak 32‐bulan $127,02.
Harga minyak mentah AS <CLc1> jatuh ke $ 108,86 dari puncak tertinggi sejak September 2008, di $113,46 yang dicapai Jumat lalu.
• Bursa saham Wall Street mayoritas mengalami tekanan, setelah turunnya harga minyak membebani saham energi dan mulai maraknya aksi jual
di tengah kekhawatiran terhadap laporan pendapatan perusahaan untuk kuartal pertama tahun ini. Tapi Alcoa Inc, komponen Dow pertama yang
merilis hasil, melaporkan laba kuartal pertama yang besar Senin kemarin, setelah mengalami kerugian tahun lalu. Naiknya harga alumunium,
produk utama Alcoa, akibat permintaan untuk logam, menjadi pemicu perolehan keuntungannya di periode tersebut. Ada proyeksi dari Thomson
Reuters yang mengatakan bahwa laba perusahaan pada kuartal pertama tahun 2011 di indeks S&P500 akan meningkat 11,4% dari tahun lalu.
• Indeks saham industri Dow Jones <DJI.> naik tipis 0,01 persen, tapi 500 benchmark Standard & Poor's Index turun <SPX.> 0,28%. Indeks Nasdaq
Composite Index <. IXIC> juga turun 0,32 persen. Ada keraguan di pasar apakah perusahaan dapat memenuhi harapan yang cukup optimis. Ada
potensi kekecewaan, tetapi jika data‐data laporan pendapatan perusahaan tersebut dirilis sesuai atau di atas estimasi pasar, maka bukan tidak
mungkin bisa mengalami rally lanjutan.
• Sementara indeks saham di bursa dunia yang dihitung dalam indeks MSCI juga mengalami penurunan kemarin, sebesar 0,2%. Sementara untuk
bursa saham di Negara‐negara berkembang turun 0,6%. Saham Eropa jatuh, ditandai dengan turunnya indeks FTSEurofirst 300 sebesar 0,2%.
• Dana Moneter Internasional mengatakan pada hari Senin bahwa tidak percaya bahwa kenaikan harga komoditas akan menggagalkan pemulihan
ekonomi global tetapi memang memperingatkan bahwa inflasi akan tetap tinggi untuk sementara waktu.
• Dolar AS menguat terhadap euro setelah Kongres AS pada hari Jumat mencapai kesepakatan menit‐menit terakhir anggaran federal yang
menghindari government shutdown. Namun, fokus pada perdebatan batas maksimum utang AS dapat membatasi keuntungan. Rebound dolar
kemarin juga sebagai reaksi dari turun tajamnya terhadap euro pada hari Jumat melanjutkan downtrend‐nya dari empat bulan terakhir. Untuk
bulan April, dolar masih turun sekitar 2,0 persen. Pada hari Senin EUR/USD terkoreksi 0,4% dari level tertingginya selama 15‐bulan, di sekitar $
1,4486 pada hari Jumat.
• Sentimen negatif dollar berpotensi terus berkembang selama The Fed masih mempertahankan suku bunga yang rendah dan sementara bank
sentral di luar negeri, yaitu Bank Sentral Eropa dan Bank of England, cenderung akan menaikkan suku bunganya. Potensi kelanjutan kenaikan
suku bunga ECB di bulan Juli masih akan mendukung kenaikan EUR/USD dan juga mata uang euro terhadap mata uang utama dunia lainnya.
• Yen cenderung rebound dari pelemahannya yang mencapai level di 11‐bulan sebelumnya terhadap euro dan di 2,5 tahun terhadap dolar
Australia setelah gempa bumi kembali mengguncang Jepang Senin kemarin yang menyebabkan beberapa investor melepas aset‐aset beresiko
mereka yang didanai dari pinjaman murah (carry trade) mata uang Jepang.
GOLD & COMMODITIES
• Emas naik ke level tertingginya Senin lalu karena ekspektasi the Fed akan menekan bank sentral lainnya dalam memperketat kebijakan moneter
yang menekan dollar AS, meskipun kemudian mereda dengan harga minyak dari tanda‐tanda kemungkinan perjanjian damai di Libya.
• Spot gold <XAU=> naik ke level tertingginya $1476,21 per ons dan diperdagangkan pada level $1467,40 per ons pada pukul 1323 GMT, terhadap
$1472,70 pada perdagangan terakhir New York Jumat lalu. Silver <XAG=> mencapai level tertingginya sejak awal 1980 pada level $41.93 dan
kemudian terakhir diperdagangkan $41.13 per ons terhadap level $40.85.
• Investor money telah mengarah pada komoditas pada umumnya dan logam mulia khususnya bulan ini karena investor khawatir mengenai
kenaikan inflasi yang potensial dalam perkembangan pasar dan perubahan pada kebijakan moneter di AS.
• "Gold investor interest is likely driven by ongoing concerns about inflationary pressures, both in emerging and developed economies, sovereign
debt levels and economic uncertainty, notably in the light of current high oil prices," kata analis BNP Paribas Anne‐Laure Tremblay.
• "Global monetary policy ‐‐ not only the U.S. ‐‐ is one of the key themes for gold in 2011," tambahnya.
• U.S. gold futures untuk pengiriman bulan Juni <GCv1> melemah $5.60 per ons ke level $1468,50. Diantara harga logam mulai lainnya, platinum
<XPT=> diperdagangkan pada level $1798,24 per ons terhadap level $1803,75, sementara itu palladium <XPD=> ke level $792.98 terhadap level
$790.75.
"A month has passed. We need to take steps toward restoration and reconstruction," he said.
A level 7 incident means a major release of radiation with a widespread health and environmental impact, while a 5 level is a limited release of radioactive material, with several deaths, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
