AS & GLOBAL :
. Saham]saham energi menyokong kinerja Dow Jones dan S&P500 untuk mengakhiri pelemahan beruntun dalam 3]sesi terakhir, meskipun investor
mengalami kekhawatiran akan ancaman kenaikan bahan bakar yang potensial melemahkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Laporan earning dari perusahaanperusahaan
kecil termasuk Lennar homebuilder dan Sears Holdings, turut mendukung kinerja bursa namun volume perdagangan masih rendah dan
memunculkan pertanyaan tentang keberlanjutan rally bursa untuk jangka panjang. Alcoa Inc membukukan laba kuartalan yang melampaui ekspektasi
meskipun saham produsen aluminium tersebut turun 1% pada sesi Selasa 11 Januari. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 34,43 poin atau 0,30% ke
11,671.88, indeks S&P500 <. SPX> naik 4,73 poin atau 0,37% ke 1,274.48 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 9,03 poin atau 0,33% ke 2,716.83.
. Pekan depan menteri]menteri keuangan Eropa dijadwalkan akan membahas peningkatan kapasitas pinjaman efektif untuk dana penyelamatan
keuangan Uni]Eropa, menyusul penolakan bailout dari pemerintah Portugal. Sementara itu Jepang, mengikuti jejak Cina, berjanji akan membeli
obligasi zona euro bulan ini untuk membantu stabil mata uang tunggal eropa tersebut.
. Euro berhasil menguat dari pelemahan tajamnya yang telah berlangsung dalam 5]sesi terakhir, seiring adanya spekulasi pejabat zona euro dapat
meningkatkan kapasitas kredit efektif dana penyelamatan blok dan adanya peningkatan pembelian obligasi Portugal oleh Bank Sentral Eropa ] ECB.
Euro naik mendekati level 1,30 pada akhir sesi New York meskipun analis memperingatkan euro masih potensial tren penurunan akibat besarnya
kekhawatiran atas jadwal penerbitan obligasi oleh negara]negara Eropa pekan ini. Euro tercatat naik 0,2% ke 1,2980 <EUR=>. Kinerja euro akan
mendapat sebuah tes penting pada sesi Rabu 12 Januari dimana Portugal dijadwalkan akan melelang obligasi senilai 1,25 miliar euro yang akan
memberikan sinyal apakah negara tersebut akan mampu menggalang dana di pasar obligasi atau akan terpaksa mendapatkan bailout.
. Dollar AS naik 0,6% ke 83,22 yen <JPY=> seiring optimisme akan ekonomi AS akhir]akhir ini yang membantu mengangkat imbal hasil obligasi.
Sementara itu Swiss franc berlanjut melemah terhadap dollar AS akibat meningkatnya kekhawatiran tentang dampak dari penguatan nilai tukar franc
pada perekonomian domestik. Dollar tercatat naik 0.57% terhadap Swiss franc kelevel tertinggi dalam satu bulan terakhir di 0,9785 franc.
. Harga emas dunia naik mengiringi kenaikan harga minyak dunia seiring semakin besarnya kekhawatiran atas krisis utang Uni]Eropa yang menaikkan
minat beli pada aset safe haven. Harga spot emas <XAU=> naik 0,6% ke 1,382.90 USD per troy ounce. Harga perak <XAG=> naik 1,7% ke 29,54 USD per
ounce. Penurunan harga emas akhir]akhir ini telah mendorong permintaan fisik di India dan Cina, dimana konsumen mulai memborong emas
menjelang Tahun Baru Imlek awal Februari, mendorong naiknya premi untuk emas batangan ke level tertinggi dalam dua tahun terakhir.
. Harga minyak AS melonjak 2% diatas 91.33 USD per barel menyusul ditutupnya dua ladang minyak di Laut Utara memicu kekhawatiran akan pasokan
minyak setelah adanya penutupan pipa utama minyak mentah di Alaska. Dukungan bagi kinerja minyak lebih lanjut berasal dari perkiraan naiknya
heating oil dari the Northeast AS yang merupakan pasar heating oil terbesar dunia yang mulai mempersiapkan adanya badai salju. Harga minyak
mentah AS untuk pengiriman Februari <CLc1> naik 1,86 USD di 91,11 USD per barel.
. Outlook (Rabu, 12/Jan./2011): Bursa saham Asia kemungkinan akan dibuka positif ditopang menguatnya bursa saham global ditopang laporan earning
yang solid dan didukung juga oleh komentar positif dari brokerage, sementara investor masih menunggu hasil dari penerbitan obligasi di zona euro.
Sinyal bahwa Eropa masih berjuang untuk mengatasi masalah fiskal diperkirakan masih akan mendasari minat investor pada emas sebagai alternatif
investasi, setelah logam mulia tersebut sempat anjlok pekan lalu dalam performa mingguan terburuk sejak Mei seiring peningkatan data ekonomi AS.
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Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Gold rises on euro debt worries, oil gains
Signs that Europe is still struggling to overcome its fiscal problems highlighted gold's appeal as an alternative investment, after the metal notched its biggest weekly decline since May last week on improving U.S. economic data.
European finance ministers will discuss increasing the effective lending capacity of their financial rescue fund next week, as Portugal defied pressure to seek a bailout. Japan, following in the footsteps of China, promised to buy euro zone bonds this month to help steady the single currency.
"Even though Japan is getting in the fray, the euro really hasn't been able to manage a recovery. It highlights the fact that there is a crisis and there will be further problems," said Bill O'Neill, managing partner at commodities firm LOGIC Advisors.
O'Neill also cited oil's surge as a factor behind the rise in gold. U.S. crude futures rallied 2 percent to settle above $91 a barrel on output disruptions and colder weather. Gold is often viewed as a hedge against inflation.
Spot gold rose 0.6 percent to $1,382.90 by 3:12 p.m. EST, while U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled up $10.20 at $1,384.30. The metal is about 4 percent off December's record high of $1,430.95.
Silver rose for a second session, up 1.7 percent on the day at $29.54 an ounce.
COMEX gold futures volume rose more than 5 percent above its 30-day average, but silver was about 25 percent lower, preliminary Reuters data showed.
Gold's recent price decline has spurred demand in India and China, a top bullion consumer ahead of the Lunar New Year in early February, pushing premiums for gold bars to their highest in two years.
China's inflation raced to a 28-month high of 5.1 percent in November, and it is unclear whether policy steps the government is taking will calm prices, benefiting gold.
After several weeks of almost unrelenting outflows, some of the larger exchange-traded funds backed by physical gold have also seen a pick-up in investor demand, despite the decline in the euro, which would normally erode appetite for gold.
The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings rose for the first time since mid-December to 1,272.682 tonnes by January 10.
EURO ZONE DEBT CRISIS
Gold rose as the euro climbed on talk of increased Portuguese bond buying by the European Central Bank, but it struggled to hold session peaks given nervousness over a heavy schedule of debt issuance by southern European countries this week.
Concerns in the fixed-income markets over the likelihood of an international bailout for Portugal, which would be the third in a year after the rescues of Greece and Ireland, have undermined investor confidence and given gold a boost.
The focus this week is on whether Lisbon will be able to raise funds in the debt market on Wednesday, or be forced to turn to the European Union and International Monetary Fund for financial aid.
Gold, which rose 30 percent last year, has been a key beneficiary of investor concern over the fallout from the euro zone debt crisis.
"Where you have governments that are overindebted and need to get themselves out of that problem ... they can try to inflate their way out of difficulty, which is where you'd want to be holding gold instead, or can go down a route of fiscal retrenchment," Natixis commodities analyst Nic Brown said.
Improved U.S. auto sales and ongoing supply worries lifted platinum group metals, which are largely consumed in autocatalysts.
Platinum rose for a fourth consecutive day, up 1.6 percent at $1,765.50 an ounce, while palladium gained 4 percent, up for a second day, at $780.
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