Headline News 20.01.11

US & GLOBAL 
• Indeks S&P500 mengalami penurunan terbesar dalam hampir dua bulan terakhir menyusul laporan keuangan yang mengecewakan dari Goldman Sachs dan
Wells Fargo yang meredam berlanjutnya rally. Saham‐saham keuangan dan saham teknologi telah mendorong lonjakan kenaikan bursa hingga 10% sejak
Desember silam. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> turun 12,64 poin atau 0,11% ke 11,825.29, S&P500 <. SPX> turun 13,10 poin atau 1,01% ke 1,281.92 dan Nasdaq
<. IXIC> turun 40,49 poin atau 1,46% ke 2,725.36.
 
• Euro tercatat menguat 0.7% terhadap dollar AS kelevel 1.3466 setelah berhasil membukukan rekor tertinggi dalam 8‐pekan terakhir di 1.3538. Performa
euro ditunjang oleh meningkatnya kepercayaan investor pada otoritas Uni‐Eropa untuk mengatasi krisis utang dan lemahnya data sektor perumahan AS.
Dilaporkan juga maraknya pembelian euro dari pemerintah‐pemerintah negara di kawasan Asia yang turut mendongkrak performa mata uang tunggal Uni‐
Eropa tersebut. Sebelumnya, Cina telah mengatakan ingin menjauh dari sistem keuangan global yang didominasi oleh dolar, dan akhir‐akhir ini memang
bereda rumor bahwa pemerintah Cina tengah menyeimbangkan cadangan devisanya dengan berfokus ke euro. Sementara itu dollar AS turun 0,7% kelevel
82,04 yen <JPY=>, dimana BNY Mellon melaporkan bahwa bergairahnya bursa saham lokal Jepang turut membantu kinerja mata uang tersebut. Dollar AS
anjlok 0,9% ke level 0,9553 Swiss franc <CHF=>.
 
• Namun laporan dari IFR bahwa penasehat pemerintah Jerman menyatakan Yunani mungkin tidak akan mampu membayar utang luar negerinya menekan
euro pada akhir sesi Eropa. Euro juga mendapat tekanan dari pernyataan Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner ‐ Ollie Rehn bahwa peningkatan
batas dana penyelamatan zona euro bukan merupakan prioritas.
 
• Harga emas dunia menguat seiring pelemahan nilai tukar dollar AS dan naiknya permintaan fisik emas dari Asia, sedangkan membaiknya prospek ekonomi
global mengangkat platinum dan paladium ke level tertinggi multi‐tahunan. Harga spot emas <XAU=> naik 0,2% ke 1,370.77 USD per troy ounce. Platinum
dan paladium memang diproyeksikan menguat karena meningkatnya ekspektasi kenaikan permintaan seiring pesatnya permintaan dari industri otomotif
Eropa. Harga spot platinum <XPT=> naik menjadi 1,845.50 USD per ounce, tertinggi sejak Juli 2008.
 
• Sementara itu harga minyak Brent berjangka naik di atas level 98 USD per barel pada hari Rabu 19 Januari di tengah kekhawatiran pasokan di Laut Utara ‐
Eropa. Minyak crude AS untuk pengiriman Februari <CLc1> turun 52 sen dilevel 90,86 USD per barel, satu hari menjelang berakhirnya kontrak dalam sesi
perdagangan yang relatif tipis. Sedangkan kontrak crude untuk pengiriman Maret <CLH1> diperdagangkan turun 50 sen dilevel 91,81 USD per barel.
 
• Outlook (Kamis, 20/Jan./2011): Bursa saham Asia diperkirakan akan dibuka melemah pada sesi Kamis tertekan pelemahan saham‐saham di bursa Wall
Street menyusul laporan keuangan perusahaan sektor keuangan dan teknologi yang mengecewakan.
 
• Fokus pelaku pasar masih dominan tertuju pada perkembangan krisis utang kawasan Uni‐Eropa, dimana perkembangan terakhir memperlihatkan bahwa
solidnya penjualan obligasi Spanyol dan Portugal dan rencana Jerman untuk meredam krisis utang berlanjut cukup menopang laju euro diatas 1.3 dalam
sepekan terakhir.

Brent above $98 on N.Sea supplies, U.S. crude down

By David Sheppard

NEW YORK | Wed Jan 19, 2011 5:38pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Brent oil futures rose above $98 a barrel on Wednesday on supply concerns in the North Sea, but a stuttering economic recovery in the United States kept prices off the key $100 level and saw U.S. crude ease for a second day.

Trading sources said Hetco, a trading firm partly owned and backed by U.S. energy giant Hess Corp (HES.N), has taken control of ten North Sea crude oil cargoes, which traders said give it more influence over the spot market.
Tighter supplies in the North Sea and soaring emerging market demand for oil has pushed Brent crude oil futures close to $100 a barrel for the first time since October 2008.

By contrast, U.S. crude futures have traded at an uncommon discount to Brent since August, with bulging inventories around the delivery point for the NYMEX contract in Cushing, Oklahoma weighing on prices.
"It's a story of relative supply," said Andy Lebow, a trader at MF Global in New York.
"Brent has seen tight supplies and good demand from Asia, while the expectations are supplies will remain at high levels around Cushing."
Late on Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute said U.S. crude stocks rose by 3.53 million barrels in the week to January 14, while distillate and gasoline stocks also rose by 940,000 and 1.86 million barrels respectively, despite a drop in refinery output. Stocks at Cushing fell by 571,000 barrels, according to the API.

U.S. crude oil inventories were forecast to have fallen by 600,000 barrels last week while gasoline and distillate stocks were expected to be higher, according to a Reuters poll. Weekly fuel stock data from the U.S. government is out on Thursday at 11:00 EST, delayed by one day because of a public holiday on Monday.
In London, ICE Brent crude for March rose 36 cents, to settle at $98.16 a barrel, just over a dollar below the 27-month high of $99.20 hit last Friday. It slipped in post-settlement trade to $97.95 after the API
numbers.

Volumes on Brent were 16 percent above the 30-day average with over 4.26 million barrels changing hands.
U.S. crude futures for February delivery fell 52 cents to settle at $90.86 a barrel, one day ahead of the contract's expiry, in relatively thin trade. Prices slipped another 22 cents in post-settlement trade.
U.S. oil product futures were stronger, with both RBOB gasoline futures and heating oil futures hitting the highest since October 2008.

Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup Futures Perspective in New York, said a dip in U.S. equity markets was, "shifting the immediate focus from a weaker U.S. dollar to worries over the strength of the U.S. recovery".
Goldman, arguably the world's most powerful bank and one of the biggest financial players in commodities, posted a 53 percent decline in fourth-quarter profits on Wednesday, as revenue from fixed income, commodity and currency trading fell.

In the broader economy, groundbreaking on new U.S. home construction fell to its lowest level in over a year in December, suggesting the battered housing sector remains a major roadblock to the recovery.
Commodity prices were supported as the euro rallied to an eight-week high above $1.35 against the dollar. Analysts said there is rising confidence European policymakers will stop the debt crisis that has engulfed Greece and Ireland from spreading.
A weaker dollar increases the purchasing power of holders of other currencies, a bullish factor for commodities like oil that are priced in the U.S. currency.

DEMAND IS UP, IS OPEC OUTPUT?

The International Energy agency has revised its 2011 global oil demand forecast higher to 89.13 million barrels per day (bpd), an all-time record, but said OPEC leader Saudi Arabia was quietly boosting output to cool the oil price rally.

Analysts and traders, however, including some of the Kingdom's big customers, were skeptical and said that Saudi output was flat in December. Rising demand with no clear increase in supply from the producer group has been one of the factors pushing Brent toward $100.
For now, technical analysts saw oil as neutral and said Brent was unlikely to breach the 27-month high of $99.20 reached last week.
I
n the United States, oil supplies looked set to improve, with Alaska's main oil pipeline about to restore shipments to its normal rate of 630,000 barrels bpd in the coming days from around 510,000 bpd, after its recent shutdown due to a leak.