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Monday, February 7, 2011

Headline News 07.02.11

US & GLOBAL 
• Indeks saham S&P500 membukukan performa mingguan terbaik dalam 9‐pekan terakhir dan meningkatkan minat beli pada saham‐saham defensif
meskipun masih terdapat kekhawatiran pada perkembangan kondisi Mesir. Tanda‐tanda pemulihan ekonomi dan earning korporasi yang membaik telah
mendorong peforma bursa dalam sepekan terakhir meskipun volume perdagangan yang rendah dan performa saham‐saham unggulan yang kurang
menggembirakan sedikit meredakan minat beli investor. Data sektor ketenagakerjaan bulan Januari tidak berdampak signifikan pada pergerakan bursa
karena penciptaan lapangan kerja masih rendah namun disisi lain tingkat pengangguran turun tajam. Indeks saham Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 0,25% ke
12,092.15, S&P500 <. SPX> menguat 0,29% ke 1,310.87 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 0,56% ke 2,769.30. Dalam sepekan terakhir, Dow Jones naik 2,3%, S&P500
naik 2,7% dan Nasdaq naik 3,1%.
 

• Dollar AS berhasil menguat terhadap euro didukung oleh naiknya imbal hasil Treasury AS menyusul turunnya tingkat pengangguran AS yang semakin
mempercerah prospek pemulihan ekonomi AS. Euro turun kelevel terendah 1.3543 setelah sempat sempat mencapai level tertinggi 3‐bulan di 1,3862.
Hingga akhir sesi New York, euro tercatat turun 0,3% ke 1.3585 <EUR=>. Ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga ECB yang akan mendahului The Fed telah berhasil
mengangkat performa euro terhadap dollar AS hingga 8% sejak mencapai level terendah 4‐bulan di 1,29 pada 10 Januari silam. Namun demikian Presiden
ECB Jean‐Claude Trichet dengan pernyataannya yang menegaskan inflasi zona euro masih cukup terkendali mulai meredam potensi kenaikan suku bunga
dalam waktu dekat.
 

• Turunnya tingkat pengangguran AS pada Januari yang saat ini mencapai 9% dari total angkatan kerja AS jauh lebih rendah dari data Desember 9.4%,
mendorong kenaikan imbal hasil obligasi AS dan menguatkan prediksi investor akan kenaikan suku bunga AS setidaknya pada akhir tahun ini. Dollar AS
tercatat menguat 0,7% persen terhadap yen ke 82.18 <JPY=> dan menguat 1% terhadap Swiss franc ke 0,9545 franc <CHF=>. Namun demikian The Fed
masih tetap dovish dan Ben Bernanke pekan lalu menegaskan bahwa pemulihan ekonomi masih rentan dan memerlukan bantuan bank sentral.
 

• Harga emas turun pada sesi Jumat 04 Februari tertekan kenaikan kurs dollar AS dan minimnya minat beli investor pada aset safe haven menyusul rumor
kepastian mundurnya Presiden Mesir Hosni Mubarak. Harga spot emas <XAU=> turun 0,3% ke 1,348.59 USD per troy ounce. Dalam sepekan terakhir emas
mencatat kenaikan mingguan pertama dalam tahun 2011 ini dikuatkan oleh proyeksi kebijakan moneter The Fed yang masih cukup akomodatif dalam
beberapa waktu kedepan.
 

• Harga minyak dunia turun hampir 2% menyusul meningkatnya spekulasi kemunduran Presiden Hosni Mubarak yang memicu aksi ambil untug pelaku pasar.
Di London, minyak mentah ICE Brent untuk pengiriman Maret <LCOc1> turun 1,93 USD ke level 99,83 USD dari intraday high di 102,48 USD. Sementara
crude oil AS untuk pengiriman Maret <CLc1> turun 1,51 USD di 89,03 USD per barel.
 

• Ketegangan di kawasan Timur Tengah memunculkan ancaman terbaru bagi pemulihan ekonomi global yaitu meningkatnya tekanan inflasi. Harga minyak
Brent London sempat mencapai level 103.37 USD per barel yang merupakan level tertinggi sejak September 2008 dan harga bahan pangan dunia
berdasarkan FAO untuk Januari dilaporkan terus beranjak naik, kondisi mana diperburuk oleh badai salju ekstrim di Amerika dan banjir bandang di Australia.
JP Morgan memperkirakan jika harga minyak terus menguat hingga 10% maka kondisi tersebut akan memangkas GDP global sebesar 0.25%.
 

• Meningkatnya tekanan inflasi telah menjadi perhatian para pengambil keputusan dimana salah satunya adalah ECB yang memperkirakan tekanan inflasi
akan terus menguat setelah inflasi pada Januari naik ke 2.4% yang merupakan level tertinggi sejak 15‐bulan terakhir. Inggris juga menghadapi tekanan inflasi
paling tinggi sejak 8‐bulan terakhir ketika pada Desember tercatat naik 3.7% jauh melebihi target BoE yang hanya 2%.

Mubarak still in power as government and opposition talk

CAIRO | Sun Feb 6, 2011 8:15pm EST
CAIRO (Reuters) - President Hosni Mubarak held onto power Monday, defying a popular uprising against his autocratic rule, after the government opened talks with opposition groups to resolve Egypt's deepest crisis in 30 years.

The banned Muslim Brotherhood was among the groups who met with officials over the weekend, a sign of how much has already changed in 13 days that have rocked the Arab world and alarmed Western powers.
But opposition figures said their core demand that Mubarak must go immediately was not met. Some expressed concern that the government was playing for time in the hope that Mubarak would hang on until September, when his current term expires.

People in central Tahrir Square, focal point of an uprising that has seen hundreds of thousands of protesters take to the streets and clashes in which an estimated 300 people have been killed, said they would intensify their battle to oust him.

After nightfall Sunday, soldiers fired shots in the air to try to disperse the crowd. But the demonstrators, who on Saturday lay down in front of army tanks, remained and the troops abandoned the attempt.
The nation got back to work Sunday and banks reopened after a week-long crisis with lines of customers seeking access to their accounts.

Government ministers will hold their first full cabinet meeting Monday since Mubarak reshuffled his cabinet on January 28 in an attempt to mollify protesters enraged by years of corruption, economic hardship and political oppression.
But it was far from certain that the situation had been defused, despite appeals from longtime Mubarak backer the United States for an "orderly transition" to more democratic rule.

The presence at the talks of the banned Muslim Brotherhood, whose members have for years been repressed by Mubarak's feared security forces, was a significant development.
The demonstrators around Tahrir Square, largely young and secular, lack their clear organization and leadership.

The government said after the meeting, chaired by Vice President Omar Suleiman, they agreed to draft a road map for talks, indicating Mubarak would stay in power to oversee change.
It would also move to release jailed activists, guarantee press freedom and lift Egypt's emergency laws. A committee was set up to study constitutional issues.
But the opposition said the government failed to meet their demand for a complete overhaul of the political system.

Abdel Monem Aboul Fotouh, a senior Brotherhood figure, said the government statement represented "good intentions but does not include any solid changes."
Opposition activists reject any compromise which would see Mubarak hand over power to Suleiman but also serve out his term -- essentially relying on the old authoritarian system to pave the way to full civilian democracy and saving his face.

Nobel peace laureate Mohamed ElBaradei, who has emerged as a figurehead for the opposition coalition, criticized the fledgling negotiations and said he was not invited.
"It is all managed by the military and that is part of the problem." he told NBC television in the United States.
Gamal Soltan, editor of the al-Mesryoon newspaper, said the protesters would not leave before their demands were met.

"The problem is that the regime's hesitancy in taking serious steps will lead to complications and the increase of the popular demonstrations and possibly force an army intervention," he said.
However, former cabinet member Rachid Mohamed Rachid, said: "I believe the presence of Mubarak in the next phase of transition for the next few months is very critical."

ANTI-AMERICAN

The United States, which had bankrolled Mubarak and the army to the tune of $1.3 billion a year, was taken by surprise by the uprising against a ruler it saw as a bastion against Islamic militancy and a friend, albeit a reluctant one, of Israel.

It has called for gradual change and an orderly transition but has given confused messages about when exactly it thought Mubarak should step down.
In Washington Sunday, President Barack Obama said he believed Egypt was "not going to go back to what it was," and that the time for change was now. But in an interview with Fox News, he said only Mubarak knew what he was going to do.

Obama also said he believed the Muslim Brotherhood was only one faction in Egypt and that strains of their ideology were anti-American -- comments that could the anger the powerful Islamist group.
Thousands of people gathered in Tahrir Square again on Sunday but in the evening, soldiers fired shots in the air in a failed attempt to disperse the crowd.

"The coward is a coward and the brave is a brave and we will not leave the square," said Sameh Ali, a protester in his 20s.
But many Egyptians, even some who joined the demonstrations, say they are desperate for a return to normal life.

Shops have been closed, making it hard for people to stock up on basic goods. Some prices have risen.
The currency could face pressure Monday when banks outside the Middle East reopen after the weekend. The pound fell Sunday when trade resumed in Egypt but the drop was less sharp than many traders had expected as the central bank appeared to support the currency.
Another confidence test will be a central bank auction of 15 billion pounds ($2.6 billion) of short-term Treasury bills, postponed from last week. The stock market is still closed.

Market could rally on profits, technical

NEW YORK | Sun Feb 6, 2011 11:05am EST
NEW YORK (Reuters) - With earnings continuing to surprise on the upside and minimal technical resistance ahead, the bears may have to wait a bit longer for the much-anticipated end to the current stock rally.

The VIX, a gauge of investor anxiety, dropped last week despite unrest in the Middle East and oil prices are basically unchanged from two weeks ago. After posting its best week in the past nine last week, the S&P 500 has actually seen oversold levels tick lower.
"I expect the market to continue to rally despite the fact the economic news is sluggish in the jobs front," said Michael Yoshikami, chief investment strategist at YCMNet Advisors in Walnut Creek, California.

Government data showed Friday the U.S. economy created 36,000 jobs in January, far fewer than expected, but the unemployment rate fell to its lowest since April 2009. Economists agreed a recovery in the labor market was proceeding but not gaining speed.
Upbeat signals in the economy, coupled with a positive bias in the current earnings season, should continue to propel equities higher.

More than 70 percent of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings above estimates so far, according to Thomson Reuters data. Investors expect aggregate earnings rose 37 percent in the last quarter, the highest estimate for that period in more than 10 months.
"We believe corporate earnings will continue to recover as companies are more efficient and economies bounce back," Yoshikami said.

FEW HURDLES AHEAD

The energy, industrials and technology sectors are "trading well into overbought territory," according to a report from Bespoke Investment Group. But two recent weeks of declines are helping ease overall selling pressure, and the rally that started in September shows no signs of weakness.

"This market has been really eating up resistance levels as an every week event," said John Kosar, director of research at Asbury Research in Chicago. "We targeted 1,313 for (last) week as a near-term inflection point, and we haven't broken it yet."

The target coincides with the benchmark's highest level in August 2008. Chartists have mentioned the 1,360 area, the 76.4 retracement of the S&P's downhill move from late 2007 to March 2009, as one of the few technical hurdles the index faces before hitting 1,400.

The S&P has risen 25 percent since the start of September, which has led to a lack of confidence and calls for a pullback. Still, the CBOE volatility index .VIX fell 20.5 percent this week after a near 30 percent spike in the two previous weeks.
"There's a healthy degree of skepticism and many people are still calling for a correction," said Richard Ross, a global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson in New York.

THIN DATA CALENDAR

This week is slow in terms of economic indicators, with the preliminary reading of the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment as the highlight of the week.
  The reading is expected to tick up to 75 from last month's 74.2, according to a Reuters poll.

"There's enough of bits and pieces of data that if they are in the aggregate positive, they can create an (upturn) in the market," said Wasif Latif, vice president of equity investments at USAA Investment Management in San Antonio, Texas.
Some investors mentioned a spike in oil prices as one of the possible headwinds for the economic recovery, and the unrest in the Middle East as an important variable for equities.

As hundreds of thousands of Egyptians marched in Cairo on Friday to demand an immediate end to President Hosni Mubarak's rule, Brent oil settled below $100 a barrel for the first time in a week. U.S. crude for March delivery fell $1.51 to settle at $89.03 a barrel.

"If oil prices continue to rise and Middle East chaos spreads, you will potentially see a headwind develop for the global economy and that will affect the stock market," YCMNet's Yoshikami said. "Oil at $110 barrel becomes a significant headwind for the economy."

FED REASSURES INVESTORS
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke offered a moderately more optimistic assessment of the economy's prospects than in previous remarks, although he made clear the recovery still needs support from the Fed.

"As long as the Fed is indicating they will remain supportive and accommodating, that will continue to provide some degree of support to the market," said USAA's Latif. "Investors will see weakness in the market as a reason to buy."