US & GLOBAL
• Bursa saham AS naik pada Rabu dengan aktivitas didominasi oleh pembelian dari manajer investasi pada saham-saham yang berperforma terbaik,
termasuk pada saham-saham energi dan saham yang tergolong small-caps , menjelang akhir kuartal. Volume perdagangan masih tipis, sekitar 6,8
miliar saham yang diperdagangkan di New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex dan Nasdaq, jauh di bawah perkiraan rata-rata harian tahun lalu 8,47
miliar. Rilis data sektor ketenagakerjaan yang tidak terlalu mengecewakan cukup untuk mempe rtahankan sentimen pasar menjelang rilis data
Non-Farm Payrolls akhir pekan ini. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 71,60 poin atau 0,58% ke 12,350.61, indeks S&P500 <. SPX> naik 8.82 poin atau
0,67% ke 1,328.26 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 19,90 poin atau 0,72% ke 2,776.79.
• memangkas pelemahan 4-sesi sebelumnya seiring menguatnya minat Harga emas berbalik menguat dalam sesi perdagangan yang cukup volatile,
beli investor menjelang data sektor ketenagakerjaan AS pada akhir pekan ini. Harga spot emas <XAU=> naik 0,4% ke 1.422 USD per troy ounce,
setelah sebelumnya sempat membukukan kenaikan hingga 1430 USD.
• Harga minyak dunia melemah pada sesi Rabu dalam sesi perdagangan dengan volume yang tipis, ditekan oleh naiknya stok minyak Amerika ke
rekor tertinggi. Minyak tidak terlalu terpengaruh ketidakpastian pasokan dari Libya dan Timur Tengah, namun saat ini performa minyak potensial
untuk membukukan kenaikan lebih dari 10% dalam kuartal pertama 2011. Harga minyak Brent untuk pengiriman Mei <LCOc1> turun 3 sen ke
115,13 USD per barel, sementara harga minyak mentah Crude AS pengiriman Mei <CLc1> turun 52 sen ke 104,27 USD per barel.
• Euro mencapai level tertinggi 10-bulan terhadap yen dan mencatat penguatan terhadap dollar AS, menyusul semakin kuatnya ekspektasi
kenaikan suku bunga ECB, sementara itu Aussie dollar mencapai level tertinggi sejak awal tahun 1980. Euro menghapus penurunan pada awal
sesi setelah petinggi ECB menyatakan ECB bermaksud untuk menaikkan suku bunga secara bertahap, pernyataan ini menunjukkan kenaikan suku
bunga pada April diprediksi akan menjadi kenaikan pertama dari beberapa kenaikan suku bunga kedepannya.
• Prospek kenaikan suku bunga ECB menaikkan pandangan bahwa pemulihan ekonomi global telah membaik dan mendorong minat investor pada
aset-aset yang lebih beresiko, sebuah tren yang potensial mendukung berlanjutnya kinerja euro dalam bebe rapa pekan mendatang. Secara
khusus, euro telah menunjukkan daya tahan yang luar biasa, tercatat menguat 5% sejak awal 2011 meskipun masih terdapat masalah fiskal
dibeberapa negara anggotanya.
Euro mencapai sempat menguat hingga 1,4147 dan ditutup pada kisaran level 1,4128 <EUR=>, terhadap yen euro ditutup menguat ke 117,12 yen
• <EURJPY=R>, tepat di bawah level tertinggi sejak Mei 2010. Dollar AS naik 0.4% terhadap yen ke 82. 86 yen <JPY=> setelah sempat menguat
hingga 83.19 yang merupakan level tertinggi sejak 11 Maret. Investor juga mengamati dengan seksama penguatan tajam Aussie dollar yang
menguat hingga 1,0338 <AUD=> atau level tertinggi sejak awal tahun 1980 silam. Aussie dollar mencapai level tertinggi 10 bulan terhadap yen
<AUDJPY=>. Kenaikan ini diperkirakan akibat overestimasi pelaku pasar pada kemungkinan pengetatan kebijakan moneter The Fed, dan disisi lain
mengecilkan kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga oleh RBA.
GOLD & COMMODITIES
• Harga emas terkoreksi dari level intraday high pada hari Rabu ditengah upaya pencapaian level tertingginya. Aksi profit-taking dan penurunan
harga minyak serta kondisi teknikal yang cenderung lemah telah memicu koreksi emas. Ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga oleh The Fed dan ECB
AS turut mendorong pelemahan harga emas. Namun demikian emas akhirnya serta kekhawatiran terhadap hasil rilis data non-farm payrolls
berhasil ditutup menguat dan mengakhiri pelemahannya selama 4 sesi terakhir.
• Di awal sesi, harga emas dan minyak melemah setelah data menunjukkan peningkatan pada stok minyak mentah. Namun demikian, emas sekitar
$10 berada di bawah level intraday high meskipun harga minyak berhasil rebound .
• Emas gagal mencetak rekor puncak yang baru ditengah kuatnya volume transaksi dimana mengindikasikan investor mulai skeptis mengenai
prospek investasi dalam logam mulia tersebut.
• emas selama satu dekade, yang mencatat rekor tertinggi pekan lalu, tampaknya akan stabil Sebuah jajak pendapat Reuters menunjukkan rally
pada kuartal kedua menyusul mulai bertambahnya risiko penurunan untuk logam mulia tersebut.
• Emas memperoleh keuntungan dari melemahnya dolar atas euro setelah salah seorang petinggi ECB mengatakan kenaikan suku bunga akan
dilakukan secara gradual, dan bursa saham dunia naik lebih dari 1% menyusul rilis optimis data ADP Employment mendorong kenaikan pasar AS
dan juga Eropa.
title cover
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Yen hits 10-month low versus euro
LONDON (Reuters) - The yen hit a fresh 10-month low versus the euro on Thursday and touched a three-week trough against the dollar as expectations mounted that Japan would lag the euro zone and U.S.
central banks in raising interest rates.
Traders said significant quarter-end and fiscal year-end flows were likely to make trade in the major currency pairs volatile on the day.
European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi on Wednesday implied that the central bank's policy is to gradually raise interest rates, with markets expecting the tightening cycle to begin in April.
Two U.S. Federal Reserve Bank officials on Wednesday said the Fed needs to exit its unprecedented monetary stimulus, suggesting the debate over future policy is heating up as the U.S. central bank nears the end of its current round of stimulus.
Anticipation that Japan would buck the global tightening cycle and leave interest rates low to support its quake-hit economy is encouraging players to sell the yen to fund higher-yielding investments, in a revival of the carry trade that flourished before the credit crisis began in 2007.
"Rate differentials are playing a big role, especially as there is no probability for the BOJ to become more hawkish, even in the medium- to long-term." said Manuel Oliveri, currency strategist at UBS in Zurich.
"There is scope for rate expectations to stay supported in the euro zone. German demand and the service sector is strong so price rises are likely to become domestically driven, not just commodity driven,"
Euro zone flash inflation data for March is due for release at 0900 GMT, with economists in a Reuters poll forecasting a 2.3 percent rise in prices on the month.
The euro rose to 117.54 yen in Asian trade, its highest since May 2010, up around 0.4 percent on the day.
"I see little resistance until 119.90, which was a pivotal area back in May 2010," said a London-based spot trader.
The dollar rose to a three-week high of 83.21 yen before running into selling by Japanese banks and foreign players along with some fiscal year-end yen demand from Japanese exporters. Strong offers were seen from 83.30 to 83.50, with more around 84.00.
The dollar was up around 9 percent from its record low of 76.25 yen set on March 17 before G7 central banks intervened in a rare coordinated move to stem the yen's rise. It was last at 82.85, unchanged on the day.
Jefferies analyst Naomi Fink said the start of the new fiscal year could bring more yen selling although it was unlikely to fall in a straight line.
"I see a trend of greater tolerance. Households and companies have a lot of cash and they will need to invest in overseas ventures. Overseas investments in the new financial year should weaken the yen a bit more," she said.
STRESS TESTS
The euro rose 0.4 percent to $1.4180, still within its March range, with traders saying a break of option barriers at $1.4250 would be needed for fresh upside momentum.
BNP Paribas is recommending buying euros from $1.4120 to target $1.45 with a stop at $1.4020.
Ireland later on Thursday announces the results of stress tests that are expected to signal the effective nationalization of the entire financial system.
Tests are expected to reveal an additional 20-25 billion euro hole in Irish banks' capital and will be followed by a radical restructuring of the sector, the Irish Independent newspaper reported.
"Ireland is not a big risk to the euro as there is no systemic risk thanks to the euro zone rescue fund. Confidence is being driven by the larger euro zone countries," said Oliveri at UBS.
The Australian dollar hit a fresh 29-year high of $1.0348 after favorable retail sales and credit growth data.
The dollar index fell around 0.3 percent to 75.849 .DXY.
central banks in raising interest rates.
Traders said significant quarter-end and fiscal year-end flows were likely to make trade in the major currency pairs volatile on the day.
European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi on Wednesday implied that the central bank's policy is to gradually raise interest rates, with markets expecting the tightening cycle to begin in April.
Two U.S. Federal Reserve Bank officials on Wednesday said the Fed needs to exit its unprecedented monetary stimulus, suggesting the debate over future policy is heating up as the U.S. central bank nears the end of its current round of stimulus.
Anticipation that Japan would buck the global tightening cycle and leave interest rates low to support its quake-hit economy is encouraging players to sell the yen to fund higher-yielding investments, in a revival of the carry trade that flourished before the credit crisis began in 2007.
"Rate differentials are playing a big role, especially as there is no probability for the BOJ to become more hawkish, even in the medium- to long-term." said Manuel Oliveri, currency strategist at UBS in Zurich.
"There is scope for rate expectations to stay supported in the euro zone. German demand and the service sector is strong so price rises are likely to become domestically driven, not just commodity driven,"
Euro zone flash inflation data for March is due for release at 0900 GMT, with economists in a Reuters poll forecasting a 2.3 percent rise in prices on the month.
The euro rose to 117.54 yen in Asian trade, its highest since May 2010, up around 0.4 percent on the day.
"I see little resistance until 119.90, which was a pivotal area back in May 2010," said a London-based spot trader.
The dollar rose to a three-week high of 83.21 yen before running into selling by Japanese banks and foreign players along with some fiscal year-end yen demand from Japanese exporters. Strong offers were seen from 83.30 to 83.50, with more around 84.00.
The dollar was up around 9 percent from its record low of 76.25 yen set on March 17 before G7 central banks intervened in a rare coordinated move to stem the yen's rise. It was last at 82.85, unchanged on the day.
Jefferies analyst Naomi Fink said the start of the new fiscal year could bring more yen selling although it was unlikely to fall in a straight line.
"I see a trend of greater tolerance. Households and companies have a lot of cash and they will need to invest in overseas ventures. Overseas investments in the new financial year should weaken the yen a bit more," she said.
STRESS TESTS
The euro rose 0.4 percent to $1.4180, still within its March range, with traders saying a break of option barriers at $1.4250 would be needed for fresh upside momentum.
BNP Paribas is recommending buying euros from $1.4120 to target $1.45 with a stop at $1.4020.
Ireland later on Thursday announces the results of stress tests that are expected to signal the effective nationalization of the entire financial system.
Tests are expected to reveal an additional 20-25 billion euro hole in Irish banks' capital and will be followed by a radical restructuring of the sector, the Irish Independent newspaper reported.
"Ireland is not a big risk to the euro as there is no systemic risk thanks to the euro zone rescue fund. Confidence is being driven by the larger euro zone countries," said Oliveri at UBS.
The Australian dollar hit a fresh 29-year high of $1.0348 after favorable retail sales and credit growth data.
The dollar index fell around 0.3 percent to 75.849 .DXY.
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