US & GLOBAL
• Bursa saham Wall Street ditutup beragam dalam sesi perdagangan yang cukup volatile, memperlihatkan masih tingginya gairah pelaku pasar mendukung berlanjutnya penguatan saham‐saham
di bursa. Indeks S&P500 bangkit dari posisi terendahnya pada awal perdagangan dipicu oleh keprihatinan mendalam bahwa minyak yang lebih tinggi dapat menghambat laju kegiatan ekonomi.
Saham‐saham di bursa sempat mencapai level terendahnya terdesak kenaikan tajam harga minyak dunia yang mendekati 120 USD per barel akibat kekacauan di Libya. Indeks Dow Jones <.DJI>
turun 37,28 poin atau 0,31% ke 12,068.50, S&P500 <. SPX> turun 1,30 poin atau 0,10% ke 1,306.10 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 14,91 poin atau 0,55% ke 2,737.90.
• Swiss franc melambung ke rekor tertinggi terhadap dollar AS, yen juga menguat secara luas terhadap mata uang utama dunia lainnya seiring masih tingginya kekhawatiran akan kondisi Libya
yang dikhawatirkan merebak ke negara lain di kawasan produsen minyak tersebut. Kondisi mana meningkatkan minat investor terhadap aset safe haven terutama Swiss franc dan yen. Dollar
AS melemah, tertekan kenaikan harga minyak dunia yang memicu kekhawatiran tentang dampaknya terhadap consumer spending AS. Selain itu, ekspektasi bahwa The Fed masih akan
menahan kenaikan suku bunga lebih lama dari bank sentral utama dunia lainnya juga turun menekan dollar AS. Swiss franc diperkirakan masih akan menanngguk keuntungan dari eskalasi
geopolitik di Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara. Sementara itu penguatan yen diperkirakan akan terbatas, antara lain dikarenakan ekonomi Jepang yang rentan terhadap harga minyak yang tinggi
dan risiko intervensi mata uang oleh pejabat Jepang untuk melindungi ekspor. Dollar AS merosot 0.8% ke 0.9256 setelah sempat anjlok hingga 0.9234 <CHF=>. Euro turun ke 0.4% ke 1,2773
franc <EURCHF=>, setelah sempat anjlok hingga 1.2706 yang merupakan level terendah sejak 13 Januari.
• Harga minyak mentah Brent <LCOc1> melompat ke level tertinggi sejak Agustus 2008 terdorong kekhawatiran merebaknya kerusuhan geopolitik Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara yang telah
memangkas produksi minyak Libya setidaknya 25% dari total produksi regulernya. Secara historis, kenaikan harga minyak cenderung menyebabkan pelemahan dollar AS seiring kenaikan harga
energi yang menyebabkan konsumen mengurangi belanja (spending di AS menyumbang sekitar 2/3 dari ekonomi). Sementara itu komentar hawkish terbaru dari pejabat ECB telah
meningkatkan harapan kenaikan suku bunga zona euro, setelah pejabat ECB ‐ Axel Weber mengatakan bahwa satu‐satunya arah bagi suku bunga zona euro adalah dengan kenaikan. Euro
mencapai level tertinggi dalam kurun 3‐pekan terakhir di 1,3822 dan ditutup menguat 0.3% ke 1.3789 <EUR=>. Terhadap the basket of currencies, dollar AS merosot <DXY.> mencapai titik
terendah dalam tiga minggu di 76,991. Dollar AS juga melemah 0,9% ke 81,79 yen <JPY=>, setelah sempat anjlok hingga 81,62, yang merupakan level terendah sejak 4 Februari.
• Harga emas ditutup dibawah level 1.400 USD per troy ounce menyusul turunnya minat investor pada aset safe haven terpengaruh meredanya rally harga minayk setelah Arab Saudi dikabarkan
dalam pembicaraan untuk meningkatkan produksi minyak dan adanya rumor bahwa pemimpin Libya Muammar Gaddafi telah tertembak. Harga spot emas <XAU=> turun 0,5% ke 1,404.40 USD
per troy ounce. Emas tercatat mengalami penguatan 7% sejak akhir Januari terdongkrak kerusuhan di Mesir dan Tunisia yang menaikkan minat pada aset safe haven.
• Harga minyak Brent sempat mencapai level tertinggi dalam kurun 2‐1/2 tahun terakhir mendekati level 120 USD per barel, meski akhirnya sedikit melemah akibat rumor bahwa Muammar
Gaddafi telah tertembak dan adanya jaminan bahwa Arab Saudi dapat mengatasi gangguan pasokan Libya. Harga minyak Brent <LCOc1> mencapai $ 119,79 USD per barel ‐ level tertinggi sejak
Agustus 2008 ‐ namun sempat turun ke 110,51 USD per barel, menjadikan perdagangan hari Kamis 24 Februari sebagai sesi perdagangan dengan kisaran terlebar sejak September 2008. Brent
ditutup menguat 11 sen ke 111,36 USD per barel. Harga minyak mentah AS <CLc1> turun 82 sen ke 97,28 USD per barel, setelah menyentuh level tertinggi sejak September 2008 di 103,41 USD
per barel.
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Friday, February 25, 2011
Wall St recovers off lows on oil drop, Boeing up late
The S&P 500 recovered off early lows triggered by deepening concerns that higher oil could stifle economic activity. Stocks hit their worst levels when Brent crude neared $120 a barrel on Libya's turmoil.
The S&P inversely tracked oil prices and a late-day drop in crude resulted in a corresponding recovery in equities. The
index is down 2.7 percent for the week so far, but investors believe the market could regain its footing at this level.
The rebound "suggests that there is still some buying support," said David Joy, chief market strategist at the Boston-based Columbia Management, which oversees $347 billion. "Libya was a good reason to trigger a pullback, but I don't think anyone has changed their mind on the recovery because of this."
Trading volume has risen in the past few sessions, following a period of anemic action that saw stocks hit 30-month highs. The S&P is up 24 percent since the start of September. About 8.90 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, above last year's daily average of 8.47 billion.
Kenneth Fisher, a billionaire investor who oversees $41 billion at the Woodside, California-based Fisher Investments Inc, agreed that there was a base of support for equities.
"People keep underestimating how strong the economy is right now," he said. "The potential short-term hiccups are the kind of disruption that the economy can easily absorb."
Oil has risen about 12 percent over the past three sessions. The sharp rise has fueled worries about the impact of energy costs on economic activity.
Oil futures were at their highest since late August 2008 as the escalating problems in Libya disrupted supply. Brent rose near $120 in intraday trading though it later pulled back to $111.12 in a sell-off sparked by rumors that Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi had been shot.
"If oil or Brent go up to $120 per barrel and stay there, that would be cause for revisiting our expectations for how robust the recovery will be," Joy said. "That seems to be the level where you have to start thinking about how to change your position."
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI fell 37.28 points, or 0.31 percent, to end at 12,068.50. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX slipped 1.30 points, or 0.10 percent, to finish at 1,306.10. But the Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC rose 14.91 points, or 0.55 percent, to close at 2,737.90.
RISK GETS SOME RESPECT
The S&P broke through a trendline dating back to August that connected lows in late August with lows reached in late November. Selling accelerated after this line was broken, and the Dow momentarily dropped below 12,000 for the first time since February 3, though both rebounded.
Options activity suggested that some investors were still cautiously bullish in the long term. Investors have been selling high-flying stocks, but then using long-term call options (which profit if the stock rises).
"There is now a newfound respect for risk, thanks to $100 oil, which has strategists repositioning, potentially raising some cash and using longer expiration options on stocks or indexes to participate on the upside," said Joe Cusick, senior market analyst at online brokerage optionsXpress.
Dow component Boeing Co (BA.N) rose 3.4 percent to $73.20 after the bell after the Pentagon said it had won a contract to build new refueling planes for the U.S. Air Force.
Salesforce.com Inc (CRM.N) rose 7.8 percent to $144.79 in extended trading after the company reported a stronger-than-expected profit.
Priceline.com Inc (PCLN.O) jumped 8.5 percent to $462.34 and kept the Nasdaq in positive territory after a number of brokerages raised their price targets on the stock. The online travel agency reported a larger-than-expected profit late Wednesday.
General Motors Co's (GM.N) earnings topped estimates, but the stock slid 4.5 percent to $33.02 on concerns about the pressure from rising oil.
In economic news, new U.S. claims for jobless aid fell last week, hinting at an improvement in the labor market, but declines in new home sales and orders for a range of factory goods in January showed the economy still faced headwinds.
About eight stocks rose for every seven that fell on the New York Stock Exchange while on the Nasdaq, almost eight rose for every five that fell.
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