AS & GLOBAL :
. Saham]saham di bursa AS jatuh pada Jumat akhir pekan lalu setelah putusan pengadilan dalam kasus penyitaan memicu aksi jual investor dari saham
perbankan, setelah sebelumnya laporan sektor ketenagakerjaan dirilis dibawah perkiraan. Meski demikian indeks S&P500 dan Dow Jones mencatat
penguatan beruntun dalam 6]pekan berturut. Pada sesi akhir pekan lalu indeks Dow Jones <DJI.> turun 22,55 poin atau 0,19% ke 11,674.76, S&P500 <.
SPX> melemah 2,35 poin atau 0,18% ke 1,271.50 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> turun 6,72 poin atau 0,25% ke 2,703.17. Dalam sepekan terakhir S&P500
mencatat kenaikan 1,1%, Dow Jones naik 0,8% dan Nasdaq naik 1,9%.
. Laporan dari Departemen Ketenagakerjaan AS memperlihatkan adanya kenaikan penambahan tenaga kerja diluar sektor pertanian sebesar 103.000,
dibawah perkiraan 175.000. Sementara sektor swasta memperlihatkan kenaikan sebesar 113.000 tenaga kerja. Data tersebut masih akan memberikan
dasar bagi The Fed untuk mempertahankan kebijakan program pembelian aset sebesar 600 miliar USD. Tingkat pengangguran mencapai penurunan
9,4%, prosentase terendah sejak Mei 2009 dan merupakan penurunan bulanan terbesar sejak April 1998.
. Belanja konsumen yang menguat, meningkatnya perdagangan dan aktifitas manufaktur telah menambah penguatan ekonomi AS, hal tersebut
mendasari pernyataan optimis Ben Bernanke saat tampil dihadapan anggota parlemen pada Jumat 07 Januari. Bernanke tidak memberikan sinyal jelas
pada arahan kebijakan moneter The Fed kedepan dan menambahkan bahwa penurunan tingkat pengangguran belum berjalan dalam akselerasi yang
signifikan.
. Tahun 2011 cukup berat bagi kinerja euro dengan prospek perjalanan sepekan kedepan yang juga masih suram untuk kinerja mata uang Uni]Eropa ini
dimana penjualan obligasi zona euro berpotensi akan kembali membebani performa euro. Euro tercatat melemah 3,3% terhadap dollar AS dalam
sepekan terakhir, merupakan level mingguan terburuk sejak pertengahan Agustus 2010. Dollar AS sempat melemah terhadap euro pasca laporan Non]
Farm Payrolls dirilis dibawah perkiraan, meskipun kemudian mendapat dukungan dari tingkat unemployment yang kembali mendukung kinerja dollar
AS. Dollar AS naik 2,2% terhadap yen dalam sepekan terakhir ke 83.01, mencatat penguatan mingguan terbesar sejak April 2010.
. Harga emas dunia melemah akhir pekan lalu menyusul rilis data sektor ketenagakerjaan AS yang gagal memicu kembalinya minat investor pada asetaset
safe haven seiring masih kuatnya proyeksi pemulihan ekonomi AS. Harga spot emas <XAU=> turun 0,1% kelevel 1,369.85 USD per troy ounce,
setelah menyentuh level terendah sejak 26 November 2010 di 1,352.30 USD per troy ounce.
. Harga minyak mentah AS merosot akhir pekan lalu dalam sesi perdagangan yang cukup volatile dimana penguatan nilai tukar dollar AS dan pelemahan
bursa saham menghapus penguatan minyak hingga 89,45 dollar pada awal sesi AS. Harga minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Februari <CLc1> turun
35 sen di 88,03 USD per barel. Pelemahan akhir pekan lalu hingga 87,25 USD merupakan level terendah sejak 17 Desember 2010, dan tercatat
melemah 3,7% dalam sepekan terakhir, presentase penurunan terbesar sejak November 2010 silam.
. Outlook (Senin ] Jumat, 10 ] 14/Jan./2011): Pekan ini akan dirilis sekitar 20]22 miliar euro obligasi oleh pemerintah Jerman, Belanda, Italia, Spanyol
dan Portugis. Penerbitan obligasi pemerintah Uni]Eropa tersebut akan mengungkapkan kemampuan pendanaan Portugis di pasar modal, dan akan
menjadi debut 2011 bagi Spanyol dan Italia di pasar obligasi. Tingkat imbal hasil yang ditawarkan pada penjualan obligasi pekan ini akan memainkan
peran penting pada kinerja euro. Dengan biaya pendanaan yang lebih tinggi akan berpotensi menambah tekanan pada mata uang Uni]Eropa tersebut
seiring pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lemah dan masih menguatnya kekhawatiran pada kemampuan beberapa negara untuk membayar hutang. Pelaku
pasar juga akan mencermati hasil sidang ECB dan BoE dalam pertengahan pekan ini.
. Di Amerika Serikat, dalam sepekan kedepan akan dirilis sejumlah indikator penting bagi ekonomi, dimana diantaranya data penjualan ritel pada Jumat
14 Januari. Optimisme pelaku pasar terhadap serangkaian data ekonomi yang positif diperkirakan masih akan mendukung sentimen bullish dollar AS
seperti yang terjadi dalam sepekan terakhir dimana momentum pemulihan ekonomi semakin menguat.
title cover
Monday, January 10, 2011
Gold steady on euro zone concerns
SINGAPORE |
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Gold held steady on Monday, supported by renewed worries about the euro zone's financial stability, but a stronger dollar weighed on sentiment, while holdings in the top exchange-traded fund continued to decline.
FUNDAMENTALS
* Spot gold gained $1.05 at $1,369.85 an ounce by 0041 GMT, after finishing the first week of 2011 with a 3.6 percent decline.
* U.S. gold futures was little changed at $1,370.3.
* U.S. employers hired fewer workers than expected in December and a surprisingly large number of people gave up searching for work, tempering the positive news of a big drop in the unemployment rate.
* The dollar index .DXY rose to its highest since Dec 1, as the euro plumbed four-month lows versus the greenback early in Asia after stops were triggered in thin trade as worries about Europe's debt crisis mounted.
* Pressure is growing on Portugal from Germany, France and other euro zone countries to seek financial help from the EU and IMF to stop the bloc's debt crisis from spreading, a senior euro zone source said on Sunday.
* Holdings in the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, continued to decline. It fell to a seven-month low of 1,271.164 tonnes by Jan 7.
* Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, fell to a one-month low of 10,839.69 tonnes.
PRICES
Precious metals prices 0041 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pct chg Turnover
Spot Gold 1369.85 1.05 +0.08 -3.49
Spot Silver 28.84 0.15 +0.52 -6.55
Spot Platinum 1737.00 6.00 +0.35 -1.73
Spot Palladium 756.50 8.00 +1.07 -5.38
TOCOM Gold 3668.00 -14.00 -0.38 -1.64 32096
TOCOM Platinum 4679.00 -6.00 -0.13 -0.36 2932
TOCOM Silver 77.20 -0.10 -0.13 -4.69 805
TOCOM Palladium 2028.00 -8.00 -0.39 -3.29 391
Euro/Dollar 1.2898
Dollar/Yen 82.95
TOCOM prices in yen per gram. Spot prices in $ per ounce.
Commodities show ties that bind
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - If there was any doubt that the global economy remains tightly intertwined, rising commodity prices should put it to rest.
Both the U.S. unemployment rate and the amount of idle factory space are abnormally high, stark evidence that the economy is still well below its full potential.
But price pressures are building in commodities despite the ample U.S. economic slack, thanks in large part to demand from emerging markets. The Reuters Jefferies CRB index .CRB of commodities is up 28 percent since July.
The pressures are concentrated in food and energy, the two categories the Federal Reserve prefers to ignore when it examines current data to get a sense of future U.S. inflation trends. The central bank's reasoning is that those items are too volatile to provide a reliable guide.
That doesn't help businesses faced with the margin-bruising prospect of paying more for raw materials while customers expect discounts in a still-weak economy.
Figures this week are expected to show U.S. businesses absorbing the higher costs. Economists polled by Reuters think Thursday's producer price index will show a 0.8 percent gain, but consumer prices, due a day later, probably rose just 0.4 percent.
The gap looks even wider on a year-over-year basis, with PPI expected to show an increase of 3.8 percent while CPI is up just 1.3 percent.
Companies may not be willing to eat the higher costs forever, particularly with the economy showing some signs of picking up speed and consumer spending strengthening.
"My sense is manufacturers (will) try to be aggressive on pricing in the first half of the year," said Norbert Ore, chairman of the ISM manufacturing business survey committee, which produces a monthly poll on factory activity.
The latest ISM installment, released earlier in January, showed a big spike in prices paid for materials.
THANKS FOR SHARING
This is not the front edge of a U.S. inflationary storm. That would require a much stronger labor market capable of generating intense wage pressures.
But it does have Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's attention. He told lawmakers on Friday that the central bank was watching fuel prices in particular to ensure they don't put a strain on consumers' spending power.
"I think the main reason oil prices are up is the strength of emerging markets, the demand for energy from
China and other fast-growing emerging market economies," Bernanke said.
Many of those emerging markets are having a very difficult time containing inflation -- and unlike the Fed they cannot overlook food and energy costs when setting policy.
Food tends to take up a larger share of household budgets in emerging markets than it does in the United States, so it often carries a bigger weight in consumer price indexes.
Barclays Capital economist Julian Callow said the surge in commodity prices was leading investors to question how much longer the world's central banks can keep interest rates ultra-low.
For the Fed, inflation is nowhere near levels that would spark tightening talk.
"Currently we do not expect that the surge in commodity prices is sufficient to generate downside risks to our private consumption forecasts, though this will be a point to watch if it continues," Callow said.
Emerging markets are in a very different situation. China, India and a host of others have taken steps to try to keep prices in check and Callow expects more to come.
For Bernanke and his Fed cohorts, one concern is that emerging market pressures could eventually feed back into U.S. prices. Specifically, China's manufacturers must contend with not only rising commodity prices, but rising labor costs too.
Credit Suisse economists think China is nearing a point where its seemingly inexhaustible labor supply struggles to keep up with demand.
The one-child policy launched in the late 1970s thinned the pool of young workers, and factories are already finding they must offer huge wage increases to lure rural migrants.
"This is the beginning of the end of an era -- China as the anchor of global disinflation," Credit Suisse analyst Dong Tao wrote in a recent note to clients.
"The sharp turning of China's labor market will not only redefine China's own growth model, production, consumption and income distribution, but will also have a major impact on inflation, financial prices and the manufacturing outsourcing model for the rest of the world."
Friday, January 7, 2011
Headline News 07.01.11
AS & GLOBAL
. Bursa saham AS melemah tipis pada sesi Kamis 06 Januari tertekan turunnya penjualan ritel dan naik tajamnya dollar AS ditengah aksi wait and see investor menyambut data sektor ketenagakerjaan AS, Beberapa perusahaan ritel terbesar tidak berhasil mencapai penjualan sesuai estimasi pada Desember silam, berita tersebut kemudian membebani saham-saham ritel.Sub-indeks ritel S&P <.RLX> anjlok 1.6% Indeks Dow jones <DJI.> turun 26,65 poin atau 0,22% ke 11,697.24, S&P500 <.SPX> turun 2,71 poin atau 0,21% ke 1,273.85 dan Nasdaq <.IXIC> naik 7,69 poin atau 0,28% ke 2,709.89.
. Euro merosot ke level terendah dalam kurun waktu 5 pekan terakhir terhadap dollar AS, dan diperkirakan pelemahan tersebut masih akan berlanjut jika data sektor ketenagakerjaan AS dirilis lebih baik dari perkiraan. Optimisme atas data ekonomi AS telah mengangkatproyeksi secara luas pada ekonomi negara Paman Sam tersebut, sementara kondisi yang kontras justru terjadi di Eropa yang masih dibayangi kekhawatiran mengenai krisis utang kawaasan. Euro merosot setelah berhasil anjlok dibawah level support 1,30, pada akhir sesi New York, euro tercatat melemah 1% ke 1,3018 < EUR=>. Euro berada dibawah tekanan jual setelah yields spreads antara imbal hasil obligasi negara-negara kawasan Uni-Eropa dengan imbal hasil obligasi Jerman melebar.
. Klaim untuk fasilitas pengangguran di AS dalam sepekan terakhir mengalami kenaikan lebih dari perkiraan, meskipun pada rata-rata empat minggu terakhir mengalami pernurunan kelevel terendah dalam kurun lebih dari 2 tahunterakhir yang menunjukan bahwa pasar tenaga kerja juga membaik.
. Harga emas kembali anjlok dalam penurunan beruntun dalam 4-sesi berturut-turut menyusul penguatan dollar AS seiring menguatnya outlook ekonomi AS (yang menurutkan minat pada aset save-haven), meskipun akhirnya aksi technical buying berhasil membatasi pelemahan emas. harga spot emas <XAU=> turun 0.4% ke level 1,371.70 USD per troy ounce.
. Harga minyak dunia anjlok 2.4% anjlok hingga dibawah level 89 USD per barel terdesak penguatan nilai tukar dollar AS dan lemahnya pasar ekuitas yang menurunkan minat beli investor pada komoditas tersebut. Harga minyak mentah untuk kontrak pengiriman Februari <CLc1>ditutup melemah 1.92 USD dilevel 88.12 USD per barel.
. Outlook (Jumat,07/Jan./2011):
Bursa saham Asia diuperkirakan akan dibuka beragam dengan minimnya dorongan kuat dari bursa Wall Street untuk berlanjutnya rally, meskipun khusus untuk pasar Jepang diperkirakan masih akan memperoleh manfat dari pelemahan nilai tukar yen terhadap dollar AS dan diharapkan akan mendukung kenaikan saham-saham eksportir Jepang. Dengan kenaikan tajam indeks S&P500 hingga 8% sejak awal desember silam, investor diperkirakan akan mencari dukungan bagi aksi ambil untung jika laporan sektor ketenagakerjaan dirilis dibawah perkiraan. Perkembangan sektor tenaga kerja di AS merupakan salah satu faktor kunci bagi pertimbangan kebijakan moneter The Fed dan apabila terjadi perbaikan yang cukup signifikan maka akan membuka kemungkinan bank sentral AS tersebut akan mengubah besaran ataupun cakupan dari program pembelian aset. para pengamat memperkirakan adanya pergeseran kebijakan The Fed mungkin akan menguntungkan dollar AS. Selain laporan sektor ketenagakerjaan AS, perlu diamati pernyataan Chairman The Fed - Ben Bernanke mengenai prospek ekonomi AS di hadapan Komite Anggaran Senat setelah rilis laporan sektor ketenagakerjaan AS.
. Bursa saham AS melemah tipis pada sesi Kamis 06 Januari tertekan turunnya penjualan ritel dan naik tajamnya dollar AS ditengah aksi wait and see investor menyambut data sektor ketenagakerjaan AS, Beberapa perusahaan ritel terbesar tidak berhasil mencapai penjualan sesuai estimasi pada Desember silam, berita tersebut kemudian membebani saham-saham ritel.Sub-indeks ritel S&P <.RLX> anjlok 1.6% Indeks Dow jones <DJI.> turun 26,65 poin atau 0,22% ke 11,697.24, S&P500 <.SPX> turun 2,71 poin atau 0,21% ke 1,273.85 dan Nasdaq <.IXIC> naik 7,69 poin atau 0,28% ke 2,709.89.
. Euro merosot ke level terendah dalam kurun waktu 5 pekan terakhir terhadap dollar AS, dan diperkirakan pelemahan tersebut masih akan berlanjut jika data sektor ketenagakerjaan AS dirilis lebih baik dari perkiraan. Optimisme atas data ekonomi AS telah mengangkatproyeksi secara luas pada ekonomi negara Paman Sam tersebut, sementara kondisi yang kontras justru terjadi di Eropa yang masih dibayangi kekhawatiran mengenai krisis utang kawaasan. Euro merosot setelah berhasil anjlok dibawah level support 1,30, pada akhir sesi New York, euro tercatat melemah 1% ke 1,3018 < EUR=>. Euro berada dibawah tekanan jual setelah yields spreads antara imbal hasil obligasi negara-negara kawasan Uni-Eropa dengan imbal hasil obligasi Jerman melebar.
. Klaim untuk fasilitas pengangguran di AS dalam sepekan terakhir mengalami kenaikan lebih dari perkiraan, meskipun pada rata-rata empat minggu terakhir mengalami pernurunan kelevel terendah dalam kurun lebih dari 2 tahunterakhir yang menunjukan bahwa pasar tenaga kerja juga membaik.
. Harga emas kembali anjlok dalam penurunan beruntun dalam 4-sesi berturut-turut menyusul penguatan dollar AS seiring menguatnya outlook ekonomi AS (yang menurutkan minat pada aset save-haven), meskipun akhirnya aksi technical buying berhasil membatasi pelemahan emas. harga spot emas <XAU=> turun 0.4% ke level 1,371.70 USD per troy ounce.
. Harga minyak dunia anjlok 2.4% anjlok hingga dibawah level 89 USD per barel terdesak penguatan nilai tukar dollar AS dan lemahnya pasar ekuitas yang menurunkan minat beli investor pada komoditas tersebut. Harga minyak mentah untuk kontrak pengiriman Februari <CLc1>ditutup melemah 1.92 USD dilevel 88.12 USD per barel.
. Outlook (Jumat,07/Jan./2011):
Bursa saham Asia diuperkirakan akan dibuka beragam dengan minimnya dorongan kuat dari bursa Wall Street untuk berlanjutnya rally, meskipun khusus untuk pasar Jepang diperkirakan masih akan memperoleh manfat dari pelemahan nilai tukar yen terhadap dollar AS dan diharapkan akan mendukung kenaikan saham-saham eksportir Jepang. Dengan kenaikan tajam indeks S&P500 hingga 8% sejak awal desember silam, investor diperkirakan akan mencari dukungan bagi aksi ambil untung jika laporan sektor ketenagakerjaan dirilis dibawah perkiraan. Perkembangan sektor tenaga kerja di AS merupakan salah satu faktor kunci bagi pertimbangan kebijakan moneter The Fed dan apabila terjadi perbaikan yang cukup signifikan maka akan membuka kemungkinan bank sentral AS tersebut akan mengubah besaran ataupun cakupan dari program pembelian aset. para pengamat memperkirakan adanya pergeseran kebijakan The Fed mungkin akan menguntungkan dollar AS. Selain laporan sektor ketenagakerjaan AS, perlu diamati pernyataan Chairman The Fed - Ben Bernanke mengenai prospek ekonomi AS di hadapan Komite Anggaran Senat setelah rilis laporan sektor ketenagakerjaan AS.
Gold falls on improved outlook; payrolls eyed
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gold fell for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday as the dollar rose on signs the U.S. economic outlook was improving, but technical buying lifted prices off their lows.
Strong economic reports this week including purchasing managers' indexes, new factory orders and upbeat private-sector jobs data have driven the dollar higher, diminishing gold's safe-haven appeal. The data raised expectations that Friday's key U.S. jobs data will beat forecasts.
"There is always the fear that once the rebound in the U.S. gets cemented and attracts higher interest rates, investors start shifting money out of gold and into equities," said Mitsubishi analyst Matthew Turner.
The S&P 500 .SPX stock index was on track for its sixth straight week of gains, up more than 1 percent so far this week even after Thursday's slight retreat.
Some investors unwound solid gains made on thin volume in gold and other precious metals over the holidays. The year-end rally saw silver hit a series of 30-year highs and palladium touch a near 10-year peak. Gold had come within $10 of a new all-time high on Monday.
Spot gold fell 0.4 percent to $1,371.70 an ounce at 3:28 p.m. (2028 GMT) U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled down $2 at $1,371.70.
Spot silver fell 0.7 percent to $29.05 an ounce.
Trading volume steadied after noticeably busier sessions earlier this week. U.S. gold futures volume was 5 percent above its 30-day average, but COMEX silver turnover was about 10 percent below the 30-day average.
A larger-than-expected rise in weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday did little to alter investors' view that the economy is gaining traction, putting gold under pressure.
Oil prices lost $2 to $88 a barrel on the dollar strength, and industrial metals led by copper also fell 2 percent. The Reuters-Jefferies CRB .CRB index fell over 1 percent after the global commodities benchmark zigzagged in a volatile week.
Some analysts said underlying risk in the global economy should still boost gold to record highs despite better U.S. economic data.
"The debt problems in the euro zone's periphery haven't gone way... A tussle over the U.S. debt ceiling has the potential to further roil markets, lending support to gold in the next 2-3 months," said Peter Buchanan, senior economist at CIBC World Markets.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner stepped up pressure on Republican lawmakers to raise the nation's $14.3 trillion debt limit, warning failure to act would lead to an economic catastrophe.
TECHNICAL BUYING
On charts, gold cut early losses, bouncing off lows at around $1,362 an ounce, a key support level in line with a series of lows set in December, said Adam Hewison, president of MarketClub.com.
Hewison said gold's bounce up from session lows signals that it has found support after falling this week.
"Every time when gold had gotten down to these levels, it's very close to making a reversal higher," he said.
Gold has risen toward its record $1,430,95 an ounce level three times since November but failed each time.
Investment demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds remained lackluster, with holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, New York's SPDR Gold Trust, dropping by nearly four tones on Wednesday to their lowest in early June.
Barclays Capital raised its 2011 forecast to $1,495 an ounce from a previous view of $1,445 in November.
"A clouded macro environment against a backdrop of low interest rates, growing uncertainty surrounding currency debasement and medium-term inflation fears as well as geopolitical tensions continue to stoke investor's appetite for a portfolio diversifier and a safe haven," Barcap's precious metals analyst Suki Cooper said in a note on Thursday.
Platinum inched up 0.1 percent to $1,727.74 an ounce and palladium dropped 1.8 percent to $759.47 after rising above $800 an ounce on Monday, its highest in nearly 10 years.
Prices at 3:30 p.m. EST (2030 GMT)
Thursday, January 6, 2011
North Korea wants talks, U.S. wants end to provocations
SEOUL/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - North Korea called on Wednesday for unconditional talks with the South but the United States suggested it must first stop provoking its neighbor, recommit to a 2005 nuclear pact and take responsibility for recent attacks.
It was uncertain whether the South would heed the North's call less than two months after the North Korean military on November 23 bombarded a South Korean island off disputed waters, killing four people.
The artillery fire, and the March 2010 sinking of a South Korean corvette blamed on the North despite its denials, have raised tensions in Asia and added pressure to try to resume talks with the North on curbing its nuclear programs.
"We demand unconditional talks between responsible authorities (of the South and the North)," the North's KCNA news agency quoted a statement, which, in an unusual step, was issued collectively by the North's government, the ruling Workers' Party of Korea and other organizations.
"We are prepared to meet with anyone regardless of the past if it is someone who is willing to go hand-on-hand with us to the future," it added.
It further proposed "discontinuing heaping slander and calumnies on each other and refraining from any act of provoking each other in order to create an atmosphere of improving inter-Korean ties."
While the North's statement seemed conciliatory, the United States made clear it first wanted Pyongyang to take action.
"We're open to dialogue but it's not just for North Korea to say 'OK, fine we'll come talk'," State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley told reporters after the U.S. and Chinese foreign ministers met in Washington.
"There are things that North Korea has to show both South Korea and the United States that it is prepared to have a sustained and constructive dialogue," Crowley said.
"Committing itself that there will be no further provocations certainly would be one step, demonstrating that it is prepared to move forward on its commitments under the 2005 joint statement would be another step," he added.
Under that pact, North Korea pledged to abandon its nuclear programs but the country's reclusive and often unpredictable leaders have made such commitments in the past in agreements that have subsequently unraveled.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi of China discussed the issue among others during a two-hour meeting to prepare for Chinese President Hu Jintao's January 19 state visit to Washington.
The United States has long sought China's help to persuade North Korea, which has twice conducted nuclear tests, to give up its nuclear programs.
The U.S. envoy for North Korea policy, Stephen Bosworth, met South Korean officials in Seoul before heading to China. Washington hopes talks on dismantling North Korea's nuclear work can start soon, though a breakthrough may prove elusive.
HIGH TENSION
Tension on the Korean peninsula rose to its highest levels since the 1950-53 Korean War after last year's sinking of a Southern ship killed 46 sailors, the exchange of artillery fire around the South's island, revelations of fresh nuclear activity by the North and threats of war.
President Barack Obama's national security adviser met China's foreign minister Tuesday in Washington and stressed the need to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons work and "avoid destabilizing behavior," the White House said.
In Seoul, U.S. envoy Bosworth met South Korea's foreign minister and nuclear negotiator. Bosworth does not appear to be in the region to unveil a U.S. proposal to get the North back to talks, but said he was collecting views from all sides.
Consultations are likely to focus on whether to restart the so-called six-party disarmament-for-aid talks involving the United States, the two Koreas, Japan, China and Russia.
Asked whether the United States was putting pressure on Seoul, Bosworth said: "Never."
He offered no further comments, saying he was due in China later Wednesday and would be in Japan Thursday.
Speaking after his meeting with Bosworth, South Korea's foreign minister sounded a cautious note about whether the six-party talks could restart, calling them a "useful negotiating tool" for disarming North Korea.
"But the right conditions, including North-South dialogue, are needed for there to be real progress," Kim Sung-Hwan was quoted as saying by the Yonhap news agency.
"It depends on the North's behavior whether it will choose path of conflict or peace."
Analysis: Facebook fund tests SEC resolve
NEW YORK/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The efforts by Facebook to raise as much as $1.5 billion outside of regulated markets is the latest test of the walls between private and public markets.
Goldman Sachs this week approached its best private wealth clients with a tantalizing offer: a special fund that will own shares in the fast-growing social networking giant. Goldman gets to offer clients a hot investment opportunity, while Facebook gets to remain a private company.
It is the latest in a growing trend: the blurring of public regulated markets and hands-off private markets.
That trend had drawn the attention of the Securities and Exchange Commission, which now must determine if it can build an enforcement case cracking down on investors and companies potentially skirting the rules on the books, or if it needs to clarify those rules itself.
"You have a lot of people who could probably create private markets that rival the public ones to deliver large amounts of capital to big companies without triggering all the burdens of being a public company," said Donald Langevoort, a professor of securities regulation at Georgetown University.
Small companies traditionally launch with the ultimate goal of completing an initial public offering and obtaining a listing on a national exchange. Yet reporting requirements and other regulatory hurdles have made that path less attractive, while new technology and alternative sources of capital make going public less critical.
That has contributed to a rise in online trading platforms that match buyers and sellers of privately held companies.
SecondMarket Inc, an online platform that hosts the trading of shares in Facebook and other private companies, on Monday told Reuters it received a request for information from the SEC on Friday. The SEC declined to comment on a potential probe into private market trading.
Under U.S. securities law, if a company's private shares are held by more than 500 holders of record, the company is required to register with the SEC and file public disclosure statements. But the rules generally define the term "record holder" as the name displayed on the company's stock record, and not the beneficial owner of the stock.
That means firms like Goldman Sachs can potentially skirt public disclosure rules through the use of a special investment vehicle. These funds can offer numerous investors the opportunity to buy stock, but the shares are all listed in the name of Goldman Sachs and only count as one shareholder of record.
Some securities lawyers say the SEC could choose to intervene if it concludes Facebook intends to skirt disclosure rules.
"It would not strike me as unusual for the SEC to be thinking about it and having to come to grips with it, because of the public notoriety around this transaction," said Stanley Keller, a lawyer at Edwards Angell Palmer & Dodge in Boston.
"When you combine this deal with the secondary market activity taking place, it makes it more problematic for Facebook avoiding crossing over the 500-holder threshold."
Google, another fast-growing Internet company, had also avoided an IPO until trading activity in employee options drew the scrutiny of the SEC. Google went public in 2004.
Several securities law experts note the Facebook fund, if unchallenged, could have major ramifications for other private companies and for Wall Street.
But if companies are closely following all the rules for offering private shares, there may not be much the SEC can do on the enforcement side.
"Assuming they took the steps that were necessary to comply with existing rules and regulations, absent fraud or other extenuating circumstances, even though the SEC may not like it, there's probably not much they can do," said Brian Breheny, a former SEC deputy director of corporation finance who is now a partner at law firm Skadden Arps.
This is not the first time the SEC has been faced with the issue of whether it needs to update its registration rules for over-the-counter equities. In 2003, some investors urged the SEC to count beneficial owners amid concerns that companies were intentionally deregistering their securities to avoid disclosure rules.
Lawyer Stephen Nelson, who represented those investors, said he thinks many of those same issues are still relevant. He said the recent financial crisis underlined that regulators need as much information as possible to effectively police markets.
"When you have entities out there like Facebook, unregistered and not providing information to the SEC about their activities, the more of that kind of stuff that goes on, the dumber your regulators get and the worse their decision-making gets," he said. "And that scares me."
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Headline News 05.01.11
AS & GLOBAL :
. Indeks S&P dan Nasdaq melemah tipis sementara Dow Jones berhasil menguat pasca rilis minutes sidang The Fed Desember lalu yang memperlihatkan
bahwa mayoritas anggota The Fed merasakan pemulihan ekonomi AS saat ini masih belum cukup untuk melakukan perubahan terhadap program
pembelian surat hutang The Fed senilai 600 miliar USD yang diluncurkan kuartal keempat 2010 silam. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> menguat 20,43 poin
atau 0,18% ke 11,691.18, S&P500 <SPX.> melemah 1,67 poin atau 0,13% ke 1,270.20 dan Nasdaq <IXIC.> turun 10,27 poin atau 0,38% ke 2,681.25.
. Investor meninggalkan saham]saham komoditas dan kekhawatiran pada rendahnya pendapatan supermarket AS turut menekan saham pengecer
makanan, faktor]faktor tersebut menekan kinerja indeks S&P dan Nasdaq.Namun demikian volume perdagangan meningkat seiring penataan kembali
portofolio para investor pada awal tahun 2011, dan para analis mengatakan daya tarik ekuitas masih tetap stabil.
. Dollar AS berhasil rebound terhadap euro dari level terendahnya dalam kurun 3]pekan terakhir menyusul rilis data ekonomi AS yang membaik.
Performa dollar AS diperkirakan masih akan mengkilap sebagai antisipasi dari penjualan obligasi dari zona euro secara masif. Data Factory Orders
untuk bulan November naik menjadi 0.7% yang merupakan kenaikan terbesar dalam kurun 8]bulan terakhir. Hingga akhir sesi New York, dollar AS
tercatat menguat 0,4 terhadap yen ke 82,00 dan naik 1,55% terhadap Swiss franc ke 0,9483. Sementara itu euro turun 0,4% terhadap dollar ke 1.3305
<EUR=> setelah sempat mencapai level tertinggi dalam kurun 3]pekan terakhir di 1,3435.
. Penurunan harga minyak mentah dunia turut menyokong performa dollar AS terhadap mata uang yang berkaitan erat dengan komoditas, diantaranya
dollar AS naik 0,5 ke 0,9985 terhadap Canadian dollar <CAD=>. Sementara itu, hasil miutes rapat The Fed pada sidang 14 Desember 2010
memperlihatkan bahwa anggota FOMC menganggap pemulihan ekonomi AS saat ini masih belum cukup untuk melakukan perubahan terhadap
program pembelian surat hutang The Fed senilai 600 miliar USD yang diluncurkan kuartal keempat 2010 silam. Terhadap yen, euro turun 0,06% ke
109,05 <EURJPY=R>.
. Dalam dua bulan kedepan, diperkirakan sekitar 150 hingga 200 miliar euro obligasi pemerintah negara]negara di kawasan Uni]Eropa akan dirilis,
dimana saat ini beberapa negara tersebut tengah menghadapi tingginya defisit anggaran dan naiknya biaya peminjaman. Portugis, Spanyol dan Italia
masing]masing menghadapi jadwal refinancing untuk 2011, dengan total obligasi di atas 500 miliar euro yang dijadwalkan akan diluncurkan pada
2011. Aussie dollar terpuruk akibat banjir parah di timur laut Australia yang diperkirakan akan menghambat produksi batubara, yang selama ini
menjadi penyumbang utama perekonomian. Aussie dollar turun 1,1% ke 1,0050 <AUD=D4>.
. Emas turun lebih dari 2% membukukan performa harian terburuk terhitung sejak awal November silam, menyusul membaiknya sinyal perbaikan
ekonomi AS yang mengurangi minat investor pada aset yang berstatus safe]haven. Sementara itu harga perak <XAG=> juga anjlok hingga 3% ke 29.78
USD per ounce sementara platinum merosot akibat aksi ambil untung pelaku pasar menyusul penguatan tajamnya akhir Desember silam. Harga spot
emas <XAU=> turun 2,4% menjadi 1,380.10 USD per troy ounce.
. Harga minyak turun lebih dari 2%, anjlok dibawah level 90 USD per barel, menyusul maraknya aksi ambil untung pelaku pasar terhadap komoditas
dunia menyusul penguatan tajamnya menjelang awal tahun 2011. Tekanan tambahan terhadap kinerja minyak juga berasal dari rebound dollar AS
terhadap mata uang utama dunia seiring membaiknya outlook ekonomi AS. Harga minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Februari <CLc1> turun 2,17
USD atau 2,37% ke 89,38 USD per barel.
. Outlook (Rabu, 05/Jan./2011): Bursa saham Asia diperkirakan akan dibuka melemah seiring aksi jual investor terhadap saham]saham komoditas pada
perdagangan di bursa Wall Street yang ditutup beragam. Kondisi tersebut diprediksi akan memicu aksi ambil untung terhadap saham]saham yang
menguat sepanjang akhir tahun 2010.
. Indeks S&P dan Nasdaq melemah tipis sementara Dow Jones berhasil menguat pasca rilis minutes sidang The Fed Desember lalu yang memperlihatkan
bahwa mayoritas anggota The Fed merasakan pemulihan ekonomi AS saat ini masih belum cukup untuk melakukan perubahan terhadap program
pembelian surat hutang The Fed senilai 600 miliar USD yang diluncurkan kuartal keempat 2010 silam. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> menguat 20,43 poin
atau 0,18% ke 11,691.18, S&P500 <SPX.> melemah 1,67 poin atau 0,13% ke 1,270.20 dan Nasdaq <IXIC.> turun 10,27 poin atau 0,38% ke 2,681.25.
. Investor meninggalkan saham]saham komoditas dan kekhawatiran pada rendahnya pendapatan supermarket AS turut menekan saham pengecer
makanan, faktor]faktor tersebut menekan kinerja indeks S&P dan Nasdaq.Namun demikian volume perdagangan meningkat seiring penataan kembali
portofolio para investor pada awal tahun 2011, dan para analis mengatakan daya tarik ekuitas masih tetap stabil.
. Dollar AS berhasil rebound terhadap euro dari level terendahnya dalam kurun 3]pekan terakhir menyusul rilis data ekonomi AS yang membaik.
Performa dollar AS diperkirakan masih akan mengkilap sebagai antisipasi dari penjualan obligasi dari zona euro secara masif. Data Factory Orders
untuk bulan November naik menjadi 0.7% yang merupakan kenaikan terbesar dalam kurun 8]bulan terakhir. Hingga akhir sesi New York, dollar AS
tercatat menguat 0,4 terhadap yen ke 82,00 dan naik 1,55% terhadap Swiss franc ke 0,9483. Sementara itu euro turun 0,4% terhadap dollar ke 1.3305
<EUR=> setelah sempat mencapai level tertinggi dalam kurun 3]pekan terakhir di 1,3435.
. Penurunan harga minyak mentah dunia turut menyokong performa dollar AS terhadap mata uang yang berkaitan erat dengan komoditas, diantaranya
dollar AS naik 0,5 ke 0,9985 terhadap Canadian dollar <CAD=>. Sementara itu, hasil miutes rapat The Fed pada sidang 14 Desember 2010
memperlihatkan bahwa anggota FOMC menganggap pemulihan ekonomi AS saat ini masih belum cukup untuk melakukan perubahan terhadap
program pembelian surat hutang The Fed senilai 600 miliar USD yang diluncurkan kuartal keempat 2010 silam. Terhadap yen, euro turun 0,06% ke
109,05 <EURJPY=R>.
. Dalam dua bulan kedepan, diperkirakan sekitar 150 hingga 200 miliar euro obligasi pemerintah negara]negara di kawasan Uni]Eropa akan dirilis,
dimana saat ini beberapa negara tersebut tengah menghadapi tingginya defisit anggaran dan naiknya biaya peminjaman. Portugis, Spanyol dan Italia
masing]masing menghadapi jadwal refinancing untuk 2011, dengan total obligasi di atas 500 miliar euro yang dijadwalkan akan diluncurkan pada
2011. Aussie dollar terpuruk akibat banjir parah di timur laut Australia yang diperkirakan akan menghambat produksi batubara, yang selama ini
menjadi penyumbang utama perekonomian. Aussie dollar turun 1,1% ke 1,0050 <AUD=D4>.
. Emas turun lebih dari 2% membukukan performa harian terburuk terhitung sejak awal November silam, menyusul membaiknya sinyal perbaikan
ekonomi AS yang mengurangi minat investor pada aset yang berstatus safe]haven. Sementara itu harga perak <XAG=> juga anjlok hingga 3% ke 29.78
USD per ounce sementara platinum merosot akibat aksi ambil untung pelaku pasar menyusul penguatan tajamnya akhir Desember silam. Harga spot
emas <XAU=> turun 2,4% menjadi 1,380.10 USD per troy ounce.
. Harga minyak turun lebih dari 2%, anjlok dibawah level 90 USD per barel, menyusul maraknya aksi ambil untung pelaku pasar terhadap komoditas
dunia menyusul penguatan tajamnya menjelang awal tahun 2011. Tekanan tambahan terhadap kinerja minyak juga berasal dari rebound dollar AS
terhadap mata uang utama dunia seiring membaiknya outlook ekonomi AS. Harga minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Februari <CLc1> turun 2,17
USD atau 2,37% ke 89,38 USD per barel.
. Outlook (Rabu, 05/Jan./2011): Bursa saham Asia diperkirakan akan dibuka melemah seiring aksi jual investor terhadap saham]saham komoditas pada
perdagangan di bursa Wall Street yang ditutup beragam. Kondisi tersebut diprediksi akan memicu aksi ambil untung terhadap saham]saham yang
menguat sepanjang akhir tahun 2010.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Wall Street climbs in first session of 2011
NEW YORK |
Data from the United States, Europe and China set the tone, helping the Dow and S&P reach new two-year highs and the Nasdaq 100 closed at its highest in nearly 10 years, but some investors think caution may be warranted in the short term.
Financials led the way higher after underperforming the market last year. Bank of America Corp jumped 6.4 percent to $14.19 after it agreed to pay $2.8 billion to mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to settle claims over soured mortgages.
Overall, stocks got a boost from the "January effect" when fund managers are no longer engaged in year-end window dressing and instead focus on stocks they find attractive.
"There is a lot of money in cash, a lot of money in bonds that would like out of bonds, and it's only natural with the economic improvement it's finding its way to equities," said Stephen Massocca, managing director at Wedbush Morgan in San Francisco.
The Dow Jones industrial average gained 93.24 points, or 0.81 percent, to 11,670.75. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 14.23 points, or 1.13 percent, to 1,271.87. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 38.65 points, or 1.46 percent, to 2,691.52.
While the uptrend remained intact, the market has become overstretched in the short term, with the 14-day relative strength index suggesting the S&P 500 could struggle from here.
"With the overbought condition we have, we could see some profit taking creep in or short-term weakness," said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama.
"But with the economic fundamentals still improving, more risk being assumed by traders and individual investors and with the Fed standing ready to print more money, there's no reason why we can't become more overbought."
Analysts said that, historically, a strong first day bodes well for the market's performance for the year.
Based on data since 1945, if the S&P 500 is up on the first trading day of the year, it ends the year higher 74 percent of the time, with an average annual gain of 10.6 percent, according to Birinyi Associates Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut.
If stocks end the month of January higher, then 73 percent of the time the index rises for the year, based on data since 1929, Howard Silverblatt, an analyst at Standard & Poor's, said.
U.S. stocks ended 2010 with double-digit gains, and the S&P 500 recorded its best December since 1991. The gains marked a recovery to September 2008 levels before the fall of Lehman Brothers.
Data showed the U.S. manufacturing sector grew for a 17th straight month in December, while U.S. construction spending increased in November to its highest level since June.
The global outlook also was bolstered after data showed China's factory inflation cooled in December, while manufacturing in Europe accelerated.
The Nasdaq 100's gain was driven largely by Apple Inc, which rose 2.2 percent to $329.57. Oppenheimer raised its estimates and price target on company. It was the highest close for the index since February 2001.
Alcoa Inc gained 2.7 percent to $15.80 after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock.
About 7.7 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq. Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by 2,236 to 791, while on the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners 2,053 to 636.
Oil up at 27-month peak on economic data, cold
NEW YORK |
Manufacturing in the United States and Europe accelerated in December and growth in China and India slowed to a more sustainable level, helping to fuel a move by investors into riskier assets.
U.S. crude oil for February delivery rose 17 cents to settle at $91.55 a barrel, its highest settlement since early October 2008, after earlier rising as high as $92.58.
Crude oil prices pulled back late in the open outcry session after the U.S. Interior Department said it will allow 13 companies to resume deepwater drilling in the Gulf of Mexico without an additional environmental review.
In London, ICE Brent crude for February rose 9 cents to settle at $94.84 a barrel, also the highest close since October 2008.
Strong U.S. heating oil and ICE gas oil futures helped spark the oil futures complex strength, boosted by expectations more freezing weather is on tap for later in January.
U.S. crude oil futures were building on their end-of-year rally that left prices up 15 percent for 2010.
Total U.S. crude futures trading volume, thinned by the holiday season, was above 396,000 lots with 1-1/2 hours left in post-settlement trading. The 30-day average was 543,282.
"Heating oil strength is on the colder forecasts further out, and on top of that crude is being supported by the strong manufacturing data," said Phil Flynn, analyst at PFGBest Research in Chicago.
Total U.S. heating demand this week was expected to be only 0.5 percent above normal, the U.S. National Weather Service said, and heating oil demand 4.3 percent below normal.
But looking further out, the NWS' six- to 10-day and eight- to 14-day outlook issued Sunday called for below-normal or much-below-normal readings for the entire nation.
Temperatures in northern Europe also were forecast to be near to below normal in the six- to 10-day outlooks, according to private forecaster DTN Meteorlogix.
GROWTH OPTIMISM SUPPORTS PRICES
The fresh batch of encouraging economic data helped lift U.S. equities, pushing all three major indexes up more than 1 percent to start the new year. .N
U.S. manufacturing grew for a 17th straight month in December. The Institute for Supply Management report showed new orders rose, but factory sector employment slipped to a nine-month low.
U.S. construction spending rose in November to touch its highest level in five months.
Prior to the U.S. reports, investors received news that the official Chinese purchasing managers' index edged down in December, easing concerns about more efforts by China's government to cool off its economy.
The Markit Eurozone PMI, which records manufacturing activity across the major euro-area economies, rose in December from November to near April's 46-month high.
While oil prices are pushing toward $100 a barrel three years after crude first broke triple digits, analysts say spare production and refining capacity should prevent a repeat of the 2008 run up to $147 a barrel.
Analysts believe that OPEC members, especially Saudi Arabia, would likely step in and add production to ensure the economic recovery is not derailed.
(Factbox on key differences between 2008 and 2011 for oil markets: CONTANGO
U.S. crude futures remain in a stubborn contango, whereby prompt oil is cheaper than barrels for later delivery, a market condition that encourages storage. The spread between front-month February and March crude futures had the premium for March crude as high as $1 intraday on Monday.
Some brokers thought positions being rolled into the March contract may have helped curb the gains of front-month futures.
Monday, January 3, 2011
Three risks to start 2011
LONDON |
LONDON (Reuters) - Financial markets enter 2011 with many investors persuaded that the world economy is on the mend and that riskier assets such as stocks are set to do well.
Data from Reuters asset allocation polls and State Street's investor confidence index suggest investors are positioned for more stock gains and a continued move away from supposedly safer assets such as government bonds and low-yielding cash.
The Reuters polls, for example, showed equity holdings among leading investors at a 10-month high in December, while State Street's index for the month moved into bullish territory for the first time since March.
But the waning days of 2010 suggest investors will almost immediately have to face three major risks to their rather bullish mood.
In no particular order, those are: China's trade, America's economy and the fate of billions of dollars pumped into benchmark government bonds.
Of the three, the pace of recovery in the U.S. economy will be most clearly on display, with monthly U.S. jobs data due to be released on January 7.
It may take on extra importance this month as much of the change in investors' appetite for risk has come about as signs have increased that the U.S. slowdown in mid-2010 was only temporary.
U.S. equities, for example, have recovered to the extent that the over-the-counter Nasdaq index .IXIC has actually outperformed much-touted emerging market stocks, as measured by MSCI .MSCIEF.
But some data was disappointing in the past week, notably consumer sentiment and housing, which, with jobs, go to the heart of future confidence and spending.
U.S. equities have been among the big winners since Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made clear in August that the Fed would buy more assets to boost liquidity in the U.S. economy.
The S&P 500 index .SPX, for example, is up around 20 percent since his Jackson Hole August 27 speech.
So any sign that the U.S. economy is not recovering as thought could cause an early reversal.
PRICEY TREASURIES
A not-unrelated worry is the Treasury market, which has been hit by a combination of rising prices for riskier assets, the impact of tax cuts on the already large U.S. deficit, and a general feeling that bonds may be overbought.
The past few weeks have seen a few days of large sell-offs, including one following dismal demand at an auction for five-year paper.
"Short- to medium-term maturities generally offer poor value," Tristan Hanson, strategist at wealth manager Ashburton told clients recently.
He added, however, that longer-term 30-year paper was a good backstop against any renewal of concern about global growth.
An orderly sell-off of bonds would not unduly worry investors and would fit with their scenario of rising "risk" assets.
Were Treasuries and other benchmark bonds such as Bunds to sell off too sharply, however, significantly higher yields would unsettle investors and have the reverse impact on liquidity than that sought after by the Fed and various other authorities.
Reuters latest polls on expected bond yields found a median projection of 3.40 percent for U.S. Treasuries around a year from now. The yield has already revisited those levels this week.
RARE EARTH
The third risk that investors may face in the coming week is China's decision to cut its export quotas for rare earth minerals by 35 percent for the first half of 2011 versus a year ago.
Rare earth minerals are used in a range of products from MP3 players and computer hard drives to hybrid cars, wind turbines, light bulbs and coffee makers.
They are also not as scarce as their name implies, but China has cornered about 97 percent of the market by producing them far cheaper than anyone else can.
The issue for investors is not so much whether the prices rise -- although it won't ease the concerns of those who fear a return to inflation in the developed world.
What may concern them most is the potential for China's action to trigger trade disputes. The United States and European Union have already either expressed concerns or reminded China of its supply obligations.
It may prove a fleeting concern, but investors have listed for some time the danger of trade wars as one of the biggest threats to the recovering global economy.
Friday, December 31, 2010
Headline News 31.12.10
AS & GLOBAL :
• Bursa saham AS ditutup melemah tipis akibat minimnya aksi beli investor dimana data ekonomi AS yang dirilis diluar perkiraan tidak
berhasil mengangkat minat investor pada aset beresiko. Indes S&P 500 naik 6,5% sepanjang Desember, merupakan performa
Desember terbaik sejak 1991. Laporan dari sektor tenaga kerja, aktivitas bisnis dan perumahan semua menunjukkan perbaikan yang
mengejutkan. Klaim pengangguran AS turun ke level terendah sejak Juli 2008, sedangkan laporan dari Institut for Supply
Management ‐ Chicago menunjukkan aktivitas bisnis di Midwest AS naik ke level tertinggi sejak Juli 2008. Sementara itu pending
home sales pada November juga meningkat lebih dari yang diantisipasi.
• Indeks Dow Jones <DJI.> turun 15,67 poin atau 0,14% ke 11,569.71, indeks S&P500 <. SPX> turun 1,86 poin atau 0,15% ke 1,257.92,
sementara Nasdaq <. IXIC> turun 3,95 poin atau 0,15% ke 2,662.98.
• Dollar AS melemah secara luas pada sesi Kamis 30 Desember menyusul berlanjutnya ekspektasi bahwa imbal hasil obligasi AS akan
terus melandai pada tahun 2011. Swiss franc mencapai rekor tertinggi terhadap euro dan dolar dan berpotensi melanjutkan
kenaikan pada 2011 menyusul masih dominannya kekhawatiran krisis hutang Uni‐Eropa yang potensial meningkatkan permintaan
untuk mata uang safe haven.
• Dollar AS juga anjlok terhadap yen, meskipun berhasil menjauh dari level terendah selama 7‐pekan terakhir menyusul rilis data
ekonomi AS yang lebih baik dari perkiraan yang meningkatkan optimisme pada kondisi ekonomi AS yang berhasil mengangkat imbal
hasil obligasi. Tingginya imbal hasil obligasi akan membuat aset berdenominasi dollar AS akan menjadi lebih menarik. Dollar turun
0.2% ke 81.55 yen. Euro jatuh kelevel terendah 1,2398 franc <EURCHF=EBS> dan potensial membukukan penurunan sekitar 16%
terhadap Swiss franc sepanjang 2010. Sementara itu dollar AS anjlok sekitar 10% terhadap Swiss franc sepanjang 2010. Terhadap
dolar, euro tercatat menguat 0,5% kelevel 1.3289 <EUR=EBS>. Terhadap Swiss franc, dollar AS turun menjadi 1% kelevel 0,9356 franc
<CHF=EBS>. Aussie dollar berhasil mencapai rekor harga tertinggi dalam kurun 28‐tahun terakhir ke 1.0198 terhadap dollar AS
<AUD=D4>.
• Harga emas ditutup melemah pada sesi Kamis 30 Desember. Namun demikian, emas berhasil membukukan kenaikan tahunan
terbesar dalam tiga tahun terakhir dan menjadi rekor kenaikan tahunan dalam 10 tahun berturut‐turut ditopang ketidakpastian
pemulihan ekonomi global dan fluktuasi kurs mata uang dunia. Emas anjlok menyusul aksi ambil untung pelaku pasar setelah rilis
data ekonomi AS yang cukup optimis, yang menopang ekspektasi bahwa ekonomi mendapatkan momentum menjelang pergantian
tahun. Harga spot emas <XAU=> turun 0,4% kelevel 1,404.80 USD per troy ounce.
• Harga minyak mentah AS merosot di bawah 90 USD per barel menyusul maraknya aksi ambil untung pelaku pasar seiring performa
minyak yang sempat naik hingga di atas 91 USD. Investor tidak terlalu terpengaruh pada rilis data ekonomi AS yang membaik dan
laporan yang menunjukkan persediaan minyak mentah AS turun dalam sepekan terakhir. Stok minyak mentah AS turun 1,26 juta
barel minggu lalu, lebih baik dari perkiraan. Minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Februari <CLG1> turun 1,28 USD atau 1,4% kelevel
89,84 USD per barel.
• Bursa saham AS ditutup melemah tipis akibat minimnya aksi beli investor dimana data ekonomi AS yang dirilis diluar perkiraan tidak
berhasil mengangkat minat investor pada aset beresiko. Indes S&P 500 naik 6,5% sepanjang Desember, merupakan performa
Desember terbaik sejak 1991. Laporan dari sektor tenaga kerja, aktivitas bisnis dan perumahan semua menunjukkan perbaikan yang
mengejutkan. Klaim pengangguran AS turun ke level terendah sejak Juli 2008, sedangkan laporan dari Institut for Supply
Management ‐ Chicago menunjukkan aktivitas bisnis di Midwest AS naik ke level tertinggi sejak Juli 2008. Sementara itu pending
home sales pada November juga meningkat lebih dari yang diantisipasi.
• Indeks Dow Jones <DJI.> turun 15,67 poin atau 0,14% ke 11,569.71, indeks S&P500 <. SPX> turun 1,86 poin atau 0,15% ke 1,257.92,
sementara Nasdaq <. IXIC> turun 3,95 poin atau 0,15% ke 2,662.98.
• Dollar AS melemah secara luas pada sesi Kamis 30 Desember menyusul berlanjutnya ekspektasi bahwa imbal hasil obligasi AS akan
terus melandai pada tahun 2011. Swiss franc mencapai rekor tertinggi terhadap euro dan dolar dan berpotensi melanjutkan
kenaikan pada 2011 menyusul masih dominannya kekhawatiran krisis hutang Uni‐Eropa yang potensial meningkatkan permintaan
untuk mata uang safe haven.
• Dollar AS juga anjlok terhadap yen, meskipun berhasil menjauh dari level terendah selama 7‐pekan terakhir menyusul rilis data
ekonomi AS yang lebih baik dari perkiraan yang meningkatkan optimisme pada kondisi ekonomi AS yang berhasil mengangkat imbal
hasil obligasi. Tingginya imbal hasil obligasi akan membuat aset berdenominasi dollar AS akan menjadi lebih menarik. Dollar turun
0.2% ke 81.55 yen. Euro jatuh kelevel terendah 1,2398 franc <EURCHF=EBS> dan potensial membukukan penurunan sekitar 16%
terhadap Swiss franc sepanjang 2010. Sementara itu dollar AS anjlok sekitar 10% terhadap Swiss franc sepanjang 2010. Terhadap
dolar, euro tercatat menguat 0,5% kelevel 1.3289 <EUR=EBS>. Terhadap Swiss franc, dollar AS turun menjadi 1% kelevel 0,9356 franc
<CHF=EBS>. Aussie dollar berhasil mencapai rekor harga tertinggi dalam kurun 28‐tahun terakhir ke 1.0198 terhadap dollar AS
<AUD=D4>.
• Harga emas ditutup melemah pada sesi Kamis 30 Desember. Namun demikian, emas berhasil membukukan kenaikan tahunan
terbesar dalam tiga tahun terakhir dan menjadi rekor kenaikan tahunan dalam 10 tahun berturut‐turut ditopang ketidakpastian
pemulihan ekonomi global dan fluktuasi kurs mata uang dunia. Emas anjlok menyusul aksi ambil untung pelaku pasar setelah rilis
data ekonomi AS yang cukup optimis, yang menopang ekspektasi bahwa ekonomi mendapatkan momentum menjelang pergantian
tahun. Harga spot emas <XAU=> turun 0,4% kelevel 1,404.80 USD per troy ounce.
• Harga minyak mentah AS merosot di bawah 90 USD per barel menyusul maraknya aksi ambil untung pelaku pasar seiring performa
minyak yang sempat naik hingga di atas 91 USD. Investor tidak terlalu terpengaruh pada rilis data ekonomi AS yang membaik dan
laporan yang menunjukkan persediaan minyak mentah AS turun dalam sepekan terakhir. Stok minyak mentah AS turun 1,26 juta
barel minggu lalu, lebih baik dari perkiraan. Minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Februari <CLG1> turun 1,28 USD atau 1,4% kelevel
89,84 USD per barel.
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Headline News 30.12.10
AS & GLOBAL :
. Indeks S&P500 menuju performa terbaik bulanan sejak dua dekade terakhir setelah menguat signifikan dalam sesi dengan volume
yang tipis terangkat oleh optimisme investor tentang kondisi ekonomi pada tahun 2011. Indeks S&P telah menguat 6,8% sepanjang
Desember. Namun, investor tengah menunggu performa saham di bulan Januari untuk melihat apakah pola naik saham]saham
memang bertahan. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 10,52 poin atau 0,09% ke 11,586.06, indeks S&P500 <. SPX> naik 1,34 poin atau
0,11% ke 1,259.85, indeks Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 4,05 poin atau 0,15% ke 2,666.93.
. Dollar AS mencapai titik terendah dalam kurun 7]pekan terakhir terhadap yen, dollar AS juga melemah terhadap euro seiring
pelemahan imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah AS akibat suksesnya penjualan obligasi pada Rabu 29 Desember yang kemudian
mengurangi daya tarik terhadap dollar AS. Sementara itu, naiknya performa saham global seiring ekspektasi pertumbuhan ekonomi
yang lebih kuat pada tahun 2011 juga mengangkat minat investor pada mata uang beresiko dan menekan dollar As sebagai instrumen
investasi safe haven. Dollar AS jatuh hingga 81,61 yen <JPY=EBS>, level terendah sejak 10 November, dollar tercatat melemah 1% ke
81,64 yen. Aussie dollar <AUD=D4> menguat kelevel 1,0184, level puncak sepanjang 28]tahun terakhir terhadap dollar As. Naiknya
harga komoditas akhir]akhir ini mendorong Aussie dollar dan membantu investor menghindari rasa takut akan kenaikan suku bunga
baru]baru ini China berpotensi memperlambat perekonomian.
. Euro sempat mencapai level tertinggi di 1,3240 <EUR=EBS>, sebelum ditutup naik 0,8% ke 1.3219. Para analis mengatakan reposisi
akhir tahun para investor turut mempengaruhi pergerakan harga belakangan ini. Sebagaimana yang terjadi pada yen dan Swiss franc
dimana repatriasi dan pembelian oleh korporasi membantu kinerja kedua mata uang tersebut menjelang akhir tahun. Euro tercatat
melemah 0.5% kelevel 1,2511 terhadap Swiss franc <EURCHF=EBS>, sementara dollar AS turun menjadi 0,9466 franc <CHF=EBS>.
. Emas naik ke level tertinggi dalam tiga minggu terakhir sementara perak naik menuju level tertinggi dalam 30]tahun terakhir,
ditopang volume perdagangan yang tipis dan pelemahan dollar AS. Minat beli emas meningkat menyusul pelemahan dollar AS ke level
terendah dalam tujuh minggu terakhir terhadap yen, dollar AS juga melemah terhadap sterling dan euro. Imbal hasil obligasi AS turun
menyusul lelang yang solid, mengurangi daya tarik terhadap dollar AS. Harga spot emas <XAU=> naik 0,4% menjadi 1,410.69 USD
pertroy ounce, setelah sempat naik hingga 1,413.95 USD per troy ounce.
. Harga minyak jatuh pada sesi Rabu 29 Desember, namun masih berkutat didekat level tertinggi 26]bulan terakhir. Pelemahan minyak
dipengaruhi aksi ambil untung pelaku pasar ditengah volume perdagangan yang tipis, pelaku pasar menunggu rilis data persediaan
minyak AS. Analis memperkirakan penurunan persediaan minyak mentah dalam 4]minggu berturut]turut dipengaruhi pengurangan
impor minyak oleh para refiner untuk menekan pajak akhir tahun. Minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Februari <CLc1> turun 37 sen
atau 0,4% dilevel 91,12 USD per barel.
. Indeks S&P500 menuju performa terbaik bulanan sejak dua dekade terakhir setelah menguat signifikan dalam sesi dengan volume
yang tipis terangkat oleh optimisme investor tentang kondisi ekonomi pada tahun 2011. Indeks S&P telah menguat 6,8% sepanjang
Desember. Namun, investor tengah menunggu performa saham di bulan Januari untuk melihat apakah pola naik saham]saham
memang bertahan. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 10,52 poin atau 0,09% ke 11,586.06, indeks S&P500 <. SPX> naik 1,34 poin atau
0,11% ke 1,259.85, indeks Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 4,05 poin atau 0,15% ke 2,666.93.
. Dollar AS mencapai titik terendah dalam kurun 7]pekan terakhir terhadap yen, dollar AS juga melemah terhadap euro seiring
pelemahan imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah AS akibat suksesnya penjualan obligasi pada Rabu 29 Desember yang kemudian
mengurangi daya tarik terhadap dollar AS. Sementara itu, naiknya performa saham global seiring ekspektasi pertumbuhan ekonomi
yang lebih kuat pada tahun 2011 juga mengangkat minat investor pada mata uang beresiko dan menekan dollar As sebagai instrumen
investasi safe haven. Dollar AS jatuh hingga 81,61 yen <JPY=EBS>, level terendah sejak 10 November, dollar tercatat melemah 1% ke
81,64 yen. Aussie dollar <AUD=D4> menguat kelevel 1,0184, level puncak sepanjang 28]tahun terakhir terhadap dollar As. Naiknya
harga komoditas akhir]akhir ini mendorong Aussie dollar dan membantu investor menghindari rasa takut akan kenaikan suku bunga
baru]baru ini China berpotensi memperlambat perekonomian.
. Euro sempat mencapai level tertinggi di 1,3240 <EUR=EBS>, sebelum ditutup naik 0,8% ke 1.3219. Para analis mengatakan reposisi
akhir tahun para investor turut mempengaruhi pergerakan harga belakangan ini. Sebagaimana yang terjadi pada yen dan Swiss franc
dimana repatriasi dan pembelian oleh korporasi membantu kinerja kedua mata uang tersebut menjelang akhir tahun. Euro tercatat
melemah 0.5% kelevel 1,2511 terhadap Swiss franc <EURCHF=EBS>, sementara dollar AS turun menjadi 0,9466 franc <CHF=EBS>.
. Emas naik ke level tertinggi dalam tiga minggu terakhir sementara perak naik menuju level tertinggi dalam 30]tahun terakhir,
ditopang volume perdagangan yang tipis dan pelemahan dollar AS. Minat beli emas meningkat menyusul pelemahan dollar AS ke level
terendah dalam tujuh minggu terakhir terhadap yen, dollar AS juga melemah terhadap sterling dan euro. Imbal hasil obligasi AS turun
menyusul lelang yang solid, mengurangi daya tarik terhadap dollar AS. Harga spot emas <XAU=> naik 0,4% menjadi 1,410.69 USD
pertroy ounce, setelah sempat naik hingga 1,413.95 USD per troy ounce.
. Harga minyak jatuh pada sesi Rabu 29 Desember, namun masih berkutat didekat level tertinggi 26]bulan terakhir. Pelemahan minyak
dipengaruhi aksi ambil untung pelaku pasar ditengah volume perdagangan yang tipis, pelaku pasar menunggu rilis data persediaan
minyak AS. Analis memperkirakan penurunan persediaan minyak mentah dalam 4]minggu berturut]turut dipengaruhi pengurangan
impor minyak oleh para refiner untuk menekan pajak akhir tahun. Minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Februari <CLc1> turun 37 sen
atau 0,4% dilevel 91,12 USD per barel.
Markets close slightly higher, strong December seen
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 headed for its best December in nearly two decades as U.S. stocks advanced in thin trade on Wednesday, lifted by investor optimism about the economy in 2011.
The S&P has gained 6.8 percent so far this month and rose in 17 of the last 20 sessions. However, with volume among the lowest of the year because of the holidays and scarce economic news, some investors are waiting for January to see if the rising pattern holds.
"I don't want to dismiss the recent gains, but I'm not ready to draw a trend line," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago. "I'd like to see how the market responds when we have more participants and tangible news to sink our teeth into."
The S&P, which has already passed the level on September 12, 2008 just before Lehman Brothers collapsed, is on course for its biggest December gain since 1991 when it rose 11.2 percent.
A number of major consumer-linked shares posted solid gains on Wednesday, with McDonald's Corp (MCD.N) up 1.1 percent to $77.27 and Walt Disney Co (DIS.N) up 0.9 percent to $37.69. Both companies are Dow components.
"People are hoping that the consumer is back and that will help fuel the engine and grow some earnings, so that companies will start hiring," said Frank Ingarra, a portfolio manager at Hennessy Funds in Stamford, Connecticut.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 10.52 points, or 0.09 percent, at 11,586.06. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 1.34 points, or 0.11 percent, at 1,259.85. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 4.05 points, or 0.15 percent, at 2,666.93.
Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones on the New York Stock Exchange by a ratio of almost two to one, while on the Nasdaq, about seven stocks rose for every six that fell.
"There's not much conviction behind any of the moves we've seen lately, though there is an upward bias because of window dressing," Ablin said, referring to money managers' year-end trading. "For the rest of the year we should see people trying to fill in around the edges to make their portfolios look better."
BJ's Wholesale Club Inc (BJ.N) jumped 7.1 percent to $47.63 after the New York Post reported buyout firm Leonard Green & Partners remained interested in buying the warehouse club operator and that it may launch a hostile bid.
The Morgan Stanley Retail index .MVR climbed 0.8 percent while the S&P Retail index .RLX gained 0.3 percent.
Sears Holdings Corp (SHLD.O) rose 6.4 percent to $74.49 after it said it launched an on-demand video service to compete with companies like Netflix Inc (NFLX.O).
The online movie renter's stock fell 1.9 percent to $180.27 but is up more than 200 percent this year.
Molycorp Inc (MCP.N), which owns a rare-earth mine in Mountain Pass, California, rose 6.8 percent to $49.34 after China reduced quotas for exporting the minerals, thus threatening to reduce already tight global supplies.
U.S.-listed shares of Brazilian oil firm Petrobras (PZE.N) gained 4.9 percent to $25.89 after it said its reserves could rise significantly due to two deep-water oil fields.
Noble Energy Inc (NBL.N) and its Israeli exploration partners confirmed earlier estimates that the offshore Leviathan prospect was Israel's largest natural gas find. Noble rose 2.6 percent to $87.16.
FOREX-Dollar on defensive after U.S. yields fall
* Dollar sags broadly, hits lows vs yen, Aussie
* Traders look to U.S. yields for direction in thin market
* Euro zone debt woes could come back to haunt euro
TOKYO, Dec 30 (Reuters) - The dollar weakened on Thursday, hitting a seven-week low against the yen and a 28-year low against the Australian currency after traders took falls in U.S. bond yields as a cue to sell it.
U.S. Treasuries recovered on Wednesday, pushing yields sharply lower, after a $29 billion auction of seven-year notes drew surprisingly strong demand a day after a weak five-year sale. [ID:nN29284358]
The dollar slipped to 81.40 yen JPY=, its lowest in seven weeks and edging closer to a 15-year low of 80.21 yen hit in November.
As thin trading due to the New Year's holiday tends to exaggerate currency moves, market players say there is risk of the dollar falling near the November low or even to its postwar low of 79.75 yen marked in 1995.
Data on U.S. initial jobless claims later in the day and more importantly U.S. manufacturing data due on Monday could provide the impetus to push the dollar down, they said.
Keiji Matsumoto, a strategist at Nikko Cordial Securities, also said a rise in the Chinese yuan after China's rate hike last Saturday is supporting Asian currencies, including the yen.
The yuan has risen near a record high as Chinese central bank has fixed its mid-point near the high for the past two days.
"There will be speculation that China may engineer a higher yuan ahead of Chinese President Hu Jintao's state visit to the United States next month," he said. Hu will visit Washington on Jan. 19. [ID:nTOE6BM01F]
The euro stayed near Wednesday's high, changing hands at $1.3227 EUR=, which corresponds to a 38.2 percent retracement of its fall from $1.35 to $1.3055 earlier this month.
The currency's stubborn refusal to break below the 200-day moving average, now at $1.3086, has frustrated bearish investors who think the euro-zone debt crisis could spread to Spain and Portugal in early 2011.
On the upside, it could target $1.3275-80, its high on Tuesday as well as a 50 percent retracement of that fall.
Still, traders say concerns over debt in some euro zone countries could crop up any time after many investors and policymakers come back from Christmas holidays.
Already on Wednesday, Ireland's opposition Labour Party threatened to call a vote of no confidence in the deeply unpopular government if it has not set a date for an election by the end of January.
The Australian dollar hit a fresh 28-year high of $1.1095 AUD=D4 against a broadly weakening dollar.
Rising commodity prices have boosted the Aussie and helped investors shrug off fears that a recent Chinese interest rate hike would slow China's economy and thus dampen demand for Australian exports. London Metal Exchange copper hit a record high [MET/L].
* Traders look to U.S. yields for direction in thin market
* Euro zone debt woes could come back to haunt euro
TOKYO, Dec 30 (Reuters) - The dollar weakened on Thursday, hitting a seven-week low against the yen and a 28-year low against the Australian currency after traders took falls in U.S. bond yields as a cue to sell it.
U.S. Treasuries recovered on Wednesday, pushing yields sharply lower, after a $29 billion auction of seven-year notes drew surprisingly strong demand a day after a weak five-year sale. [ID:nN29284358]
The dollar slipped to 81.40 yen JPY=, its lowest in seven weeks and edging closer to a 15-year low of 80.21 yen hit in November.
As thin trading due to the New Year's holiday tends to exaggerate currency moves, market players say there is risk of the dollar falling near the November low or even to its postwar low of 79.75 yen marked in 1995.
Data on U.S. initial jobless claims later in the day and more importantly U.S. manufacturing data due on Monday could provide the impetus to push the dollar down, they said.
Keiji Matsumoto, a strategist at Nikko Cordial Securities, also said a rise in the Chinese yuan after China's rate hike last Saturday is supporting Asian currencies, including the yen.
The yuan has risen near a record high as Chinese central bank has fixed its mid-point near the high for the past two days.
"There will be speculation that China may engineer a higher yuan ahead of Chinese President Hu Jintao's state visit to the United States next month," he said. Hu will visit Washington on Jan. 19. [ID:nTOE6BM01F]
The euro stayed near Wednesday's high, changing hands at $1.3227 EUR=, which corresponds to a 38.2 percent retracement of its fall from $1.35 to $1.3055 earlier this month.
The currency's stubborn refusal to break below the 200-day moving average, now at $1.3086, has frustrated bearish investors who think the euro-zone debt crisis could spread to Spain and Portugal in early 2011.
On the upside, it could target $1.3275-80, its high on Tuesday as well as a 50 percent retracement of that fall.
Still, traders say concerns over debt in some euro zone countries could crop up any time after many investors and policymakers come back from Christmas holidays.
Already on Wednesday, Ireland's opposition Labour Party threatened to call a vote of no confidence in the deeply unpopular government if it has not set a date for an election by the end of January.
The Australian dollar hit a fresh 28-year high of $1.1095 AUD=D4 against a broadly weakening dollar.
Rising commodity prices have boosted the Aussie and helped investors shrug off fears that a recent Chinese interest rate hike would slow China's economy and thus dampen demand for Australian exports. London Metal Exchange copper hit a record high [MET/L].
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Headline News 29.12.10
AS & GLOBAL :
• Indeks Dow dan S&P500 berhasil menguat dalam sesi perdagangan yang tipis, melanjutkan kenaikannya selama Desember, menyusul cuaca dingin di
timur laut AS yang mengangkat harga minyak dan saham sektor energi. Badai salju yang melanda menaikkan permintaan untuk heating oil, mendorong
harga minyak mentah di atas 91 USD per barel dan mengangkat S&P sektor energi sebesar 0,4% <GSPE.>. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 20,51 poin
atau 0,18% di 11,575.54, S&P500 <. SPX> naik 0,98 poin atau 0,08% ke 1,258.52 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> turun 4,39 poin atau 0,16% ke 2,662.88.
• Data‐data ekonomi yang dirilis tidak terlalu mempengaruhi pergerakan harga. Kepercayaan konsumen AS secara tak terduga memburuk pada bulan
Desember, terpengaruh oleh kekhawatiran tentang sektor tenaga kerja, sementara harga rumah AS pada bulan Oktober turun hampir dua kali lipat
dari perkiraan.
• Dollar mencapai rekor rendah terhadap Swiss franc dan mencapai titik terendah 6‐1/2‐pekan terhadap yen pada Selasa 28 Desember setelah Jepang
melaporkan factory output yang mengalami kenaikan pada bulan November untuk pertama kalinya dalam enam bulan terakhir. Tetapi penurunan
kepercayaan konsumen AS dan kekhawatiran tentang krisis utang Eropa membantu mengangkat dollar AS terhadap euro <EUR=>, yang bergerak
diantara kisaran 1,3274 hingga 1,3091, namun tercatat turun 0.3% ke 1.3116. Naiknya imbal hasil obligasi AS yang didorong oleh lemahnya penjualan
Treasury note bertenor 5‐tahun, turut mendukung rebound dolar terhadap euro dan menutup penurunan terhadap yen.
• Dollar AS turun 0,4% menjadi 82,42 yen <JPY=EBS> setelah sebelumnya sempat anjlok hingga 81,81, level terendah sejak November, sementara euro
mencapai titik terendah 3‐1/2‐bulan terakhir ke 107,64 <EURJPY=> yen. Para pelaku pasar menyatakan pelemahan dollar AS dalam beberapa hari
terakhir merefleksikan aksi repatriasi akhir tahun oleh para eksportir Jepang. Hal serupa juga turut mendukung kinerja Swiss franc, dimana maraknya
aksi pembelian franc oleh korporasi mendorong dollar anjlok kelevel terendah 0,9435 franc <CHF=EBS>, dan tercatat melemah 0,8% ke 0.9520 franc.
• Harga emas melonjak hampir 1,5% sementara harga perak melesat ke rekor 30‐tahun tertinggi, dengan volume perdagangan tipis ditengah harapan
berlanjutnya tren bullish untuk tahun depan mengangkat laju logam mulia tersebut diatas 1.400 USD per troy ounce untuk pertama kalinya dalam dua
minggu terakhir. Harga emas saat ini berada di lajur penguatan sebesar 28% sepanjang 2010, rekor kenaikan performa tahunan dalam 10 tahun
berturut‐turut. Harga spot emas <XAU=> naik 1.56% ke level 1,405.26 USD per troy ounce setelah sempat naik kelevel tertinggi di 1,406.75 USD per
troy ounce, tertinggi sejak 14 Desember.
• Harga minyak naik 47 sen pada hari Selasa 28 Desember, bangkit dari pelemahan 51 sen pada awal pekan ini dan berhasil ditutup menguat kelevel
tertinggi dalam kurun 24‐bulan terakhir. Harga minyak mentah AS mendapatkan dukungan dari pelemahan dollar AS yang merosot terhadap mata
uang utama dunia. Minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Februari <CLG1> tercatat menguat 47 sen kelevel 91,47 USD per barel.
• Indeks Dow dan S&P500 berhasil menguat dalam sesi perdagangan yang tipis, melanjutkan kenaikannya selama Desember, menyusul cuaca dingin di
timur laut AS yang mengangkat harga minyak dan saham sektor energi. Badai salju yang melanda menaikkan permintaan untuk heating oil, mendorong
harga minyak mentah di atas 91 USD per barel dan mengangkat S&P sektor energi sebesar 0,4% <GSPE.>. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 20,51 poin
atau 0,18% di 11,575.54, S&P500 <. SPX> naik 0,98 poin atau 0,08% ke 1,258.52 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> turun 4,39 poin atau 0,16% ke 2,662.88.
• Data‐data ekonomi yang dirilis tidak terlalu mempengaruhi pergerakan harga. Kepercayaan konsumen AS secara tak terduga memburuk pada bulan
Desember, terpengaruh oleh kekhawatiran tentang sektor tenaga kerja, sementara harga rumah AS pada bulan Oktober turun hampir dua kali lipat
dari perkiraan.
• Dollar mencapai rekor rendah terhadap Swiss franc dan mencapai titik terendah 6‐1/2‐pekan terhadap yen pada Selasa 28 Desember setelah Jepang
melaporkan factory output yang mengalami kenaikan pada bulan November untuk pertama kalinya dalam enam bulan terakhir. Tetapi penurunan
kepercayaan konsumen AS dan kekhawatiran tentang krisis utang Eropa membantu mengangkat dollar AS terhadap euro <EUR=>, yang bergerak
diantara kisaran 1,3274 hingga 1,3091, namun tercatat turun 0.3% ke 1.3116. Naiknya imbal hasil obligasi AS yang didorong oleh lemahnya penjualan
Treasury note bertenor 5‐tahun, turut mendukung rebound dolar terhadap euro dan menutup penurunan terhadap yen.
• Dollar AS turun 0,4% menjadi 82,42 yen <JPY=EBS> setelah sebelumnya sempat anjlok hingga 81,81, level terendah sejak November, sementara euro
mencapai titik terendah 3‐1/2‐bulan terakhir ke 107,64 <EURJPY=> yen. Para pelaku pasar menyatakan pelemahan dollar AS dalam beberapa hari
terakhir merefleksikan aksi repatriasi akhir tahun oleh para eksportir Jepang. Hal serupa juga turut mendukung kinerja Swiss franc, dimana maraknya
aksi pembelian franc oleh korporasi mendorong dollar anjlok kelevel terendah 0,9435 franc <CHF=EBS>, dan tercatat melemah 0,8% ke 0.9520 franc.
• Harga emas melonjak hampir 1,5% sementara harga perak melesat ke rekor 30‐tahun tertinggi, dengan volume perdagangan tipis ditengah harapan
berlanjutnya tren bullish untuk tahun depan mengangkat laju logam mulia tersebut diatas 1.400 USD per troy ounce untuk pertama kalinya dalam dua
minggu terakhir. Harga emas saat ini berada di lajur penguatan sebesar 28% sepanjang 2010, rekor kenaikan performa tahunan dalam 10 tahun
berturut‐turut. Harga spot emas <XAU=> naik 1.56% ke level 1,405.26 USD per troy ounce setelah sempat naik kelevel tertinggi di 1,406.75 USD per
troy ounce, tertinggi sejak 14 Desember.
• Harga minyak naik 47 sen pada hari Selasa 28 Desember, bangkit dari pelemahan 51 sen pada awal pekan ini dan berhasil ditutup menguat kelevel
tertinggi dalam kurun 24‐bulan terakhir. Harga minyak mentah AS mendapatkan dukungan dari pelemahan dollar AS yang merosot terhadap mata
uang utama dunia. Minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Februari <CLG1> tercatat menguat 47 sen kelevel 91,47 USD per barel.
China cuts rare earth export quotas, U.S. concerned
BEIJING |
BEIJING (Reuters) - China said on Tuesday it will cut its export quotas for rare earth minerals by more than 11 percent in the first half of 2011, further shrinking supplies of metals needed to make a range of high-tech products.
China produces about 97 percent of rare earth minerals, used worldwide in high-technology, clean energy and other products that exploit their special properties for magnetism, luminescence and strength.
The rare earth issue could further strain U.S.-China ties, which have been battered this year by arguments over human rights, Tibet, Taiwan, the value of the Chinese currency and North Korean military attacks on South Korea.
Chinese President Hu Jintao is due to visit the United States next month for talks with President Barack Obama that both sides hope can stabilize the vital relationship.
Beijing says its curbs are for environmental reasons and to guarantee supplies to Chinese clean energy firms it is trying to promote internationally. But it has also said its dominance as a producer should give it more control over global prices.
China's Commerce Ministry allotted 14,446 tons of quotas to 31 companies, which was 11.4 percent less than the 16,304 tons it allocated to 22 companies in the first half of 2010 quotas a year ago.
China slashed the export quota by 40 percent in 2010. The export restraints on rare earths has inflamed trade ties with the United States, European Union and Japan in particular.
In Washington, the U.S. Trade Representative's office expressed concern over the latest announcement.
"We are very concerned about China's export restraints on rare earth materials. We have raised our concerns with China and we are continuing to work closely on the issue with stakeholders," a USTR spokeswoman said.
Last week, the trade representative's office said China had refused U.S. requests to end export restraints on rare earths, and the United States could complain to the World Trade Organization, which judges international trade disputes.
TURBINES AND HYBRIDS
Wind turbines and hybrid cars are among the biggest users of rare earth minerals, which analysts say are facing a global supply crunch as demand swells. The minerals are also used in some weapons systems.
This little-known class of 17 related elements is also used for a vast array of electronic devices ranging from Apple's iPhone to flat-screen TVs, all of which are competing for the 120,000 tons of annual global supply.
While industrial users of rare earths in industrialized countries face tighter supplies and higher prices, China's export curbs have created opportunities to open mines or revive dormant production in Canada, Australia and the United States.
After China's announcement, shares of Molycorp Inc, the Colorado-based company that owns a rare earth mine in California, rose as much as 11.6 percent.
But the headline-driven surge in a firm whose value has tripled since July proved only temporary, in part reflecting the fact that Molycorp's rare-earth mine in Mountain Pass, California, is due to come back online only late next year.
Canada alone has at least 26 publicly traded companies, including Great Western Minerals Group and Rare Element Resources, that have rare earth projects in some stage of exploration.
Jack Lifton of Technology Metals Research, a Chicago-based consultancy, said Molycorp and Australia's Lynas Corporation Ltd can eventually offset shortfalls from Chinese cuts in supply and refining capacity -- but not before early 2013.
"Until one of them can produce commercial quantities of high-purity rare earths on a regular basis, the market will belong to the Chinese entirely," he said.
In a short statement on its website (www.mofcom.gov.cn), the Chinese Commerce Ministry said it had added more producer companies to the quota list but cut volumes allocated to trading companies.
CLEAN UP, CONSOLIDATION IN CHINA
Japan has been hard hit by the export curbs. Japanese imports of rare earths shrank further in November, reflecting the impact from China's de-facto ban on shipments of the minerals that was lifted late last month.
The European Union has also expressed concern over China's limiting of rare earth exports, though the bloc's trade commissioner said earlier this month China had reiterated that rare earth supplies would be sustained.
With more than 100 mines and some 40 refineries, "the Chinese seem to be quite serious about cleaning up the sector environmentally and consolidating it," said Lifton.
Beijing has been trying hard to impose discipline on its chaotic rare earth sector and is expected to establish a rare earth industry association by next May, said Wang Caifeng, an official with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, speaking at a conference on Tuesday.
Tougher environmental regulations for the rare earth sector are also expected to be unveiled next year, the China Business News reported on Tuesday.
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