Wall Street climbs in first session of 2011

NEW YORK | Mon Jan 3, 2011 6:09pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks greeted the new year with a rally on Monday as encouraging signs about the outlook for manufacturing around the world prompted investors to inject new money into the market.

Data from the United States, Europe and China set the tone, helping the Dow and S&P reach new two-year highs and the Nasdaq 100 closed at its highest in nearly 10 years, but some investors think caution may be warranted in the short term.

Financials led the way higher after underperforming the market last year. Bank of America Corp jumped 6.4 percent to $14.19 after it agreed to pay $2.8 billion to mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to settle claims over soured mortgages.
Overall, stocks got a boost from the "January effect" when fund managers are no longer engaged in year-end window dressing and instead focus on stocks they find attractive.
 
"There is a lot of money in cash, a lot of money in bonds that would like out of bonds, and it's only natural with the economic improvement it's finding its way to equities," said Stephen Massocca, managing director at Wedbush Morgan in San Francisco.
The Dow Jones industrial average gained 93.24 points, or 0.81 percent, to 11,670.75. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 14.23 points, or 1.13 percent, to 1,271.87. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 38.65 points, or 1.46 percent, to 2,691.52.

While the uptrend remained intact, the market has become overstretched in the short term, with the 14-day relative strength index suggesting the S&P 500 could struggle from here.
"With the overbought condition we have, we could see some profit taking creep in or short-term weakness," said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama.
"But with the economic fundamentals still improving, more risk being assumed by traders and individual investors and with the Fed standing ready to print more money, there's no reason why we can't become more overbought."

Analysts said that, historically, a strong first day bodes well for the market's performance for the year.
Based on data since 1945, if the S&P 500 is up on the first trading day of the year, it ends the year higher 74 percent of the time, with an average annual gain of 10.6 percent, according to Birinyi Associates Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut.
If stocks end the month of January higher, then 73 percent of the time the index rises for the year, based on data since 1929, Howard Silverblatt, an analyst at Standard & Poor's, said.

U.S. stocks ended 2010 with double-digit gains, and the S&P 500 recorded its best December since 1991. The gains marked a recovery to September 2008 levels before the fall of Lehman Brothers.
Data showed the U.S. manufacturing sector grew for a 17th straight month in December, while U.S. construction spending increased in November to its highest level since June.
The global outlook also was bolstered after data showed China's factory inflation cooled in December, while manufacturing in Europe accelerated.

The Nasdaq 100's gain was driven largely by Apple Inc, which rose 2.2 percent to $329.57. Oppenheimer raised its estimates and price target on company. It was the highest close for the index since February 2001.
Alcoa Inc gained 2.7 percent to $15.80 after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock.
About 7.7 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq. Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by 2,236 to 791, while on the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners 2,053 to 636.

Oil up at 27-month peak on economic data, cold

NEW YORK | Mon Jan 3, 2011 4:09pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices rose to a 27-month peak on Monday as upbeat European and U.S. manufacturing data and forecasts for cold weather reinforced optimism about economic and energy demand growth.

Manufacturing in the United States and Europe accelerated in December and growth in China and India slowed to a more sustainable level, helping to fuel a move by investors into riskier assets.
U.S. crude oil for February delivery rose 17 cents to settle at $91.55 a barrel, its highest settlement since early October 2008, after earlier rising as high as $92.58.
Crude oil prices pulled back late in the open outcry session after the U.S. Interior Department said it will allow 13 companies to resume deepwater drilling in the Gulf of Mexico without an additional environmental review.
In London, ICE Brent crude for February rose 9 cents to settle at $94.84 a barrel, also the highest close since October 2008.

Strong U.S. heating oil and ICE gas oil futures helped spark the oil futures complex strength, boosted by expectations more freezing weather is on tap for later in January.
U.S. crude oil futures were building on their end-of-year rally that left prices up 15 percent for 2010.
Total U.S. crude futures trading volume, thinned by the holiday season, was above 396,000 lots with 1-1/2 hours left in post-settlement trading. The 30-day average was 543,282.

"Heating oil strength is on the colder forecasts further out, and on top of that crude is being supported by the strong manufacturing data," said Phil Flynn, analyst at PFGBest Research in Chicago.
 Total U.S. heating demand this week was expected to be only 0.5 percent above normal, the U.S. National Weather Service said, and heating oil demand 4.3 percent below normal.
But looking further out, the NWS' six- to 10-day and eight- to 14-day outlook issued Sunday called for below-normal or much-below-normal readings for the entire nation.
Temperatures in northern Europe also were forecast to be near to below normal in the six- to 10-day outlooks, according to private forecaster DTN Meteorlogix.

GROWTH OPTIMISM SUPPORTS PRICES

The fresh batch of encouraging economic data helped lift U.S. equities, pushing all three major indexes up more than 1 percent to start the new year. .N
U.S. manufacturing grew for a 17th straight month in December. The Institute for Supply Management report showed new orders rose, but factory sector employment slipped to a nine-month low.

 U.S. construction spending rose in November to touch its highest level in five months.
Prior to the U.S. reports, investors received news that the official Chinese purchasing managers' index edged down in December, easing concerns about more efforts by China's government to cool off its economy.
The Markit Eurozone PMI, which records manufacturing activity across the major euro-area economies, rose in December from November to near April's 46-month high.

While oil prices are pushing toward $100 a barrel three years after crude first broke triple digits, analysts say spare production and refining capacity should prevent a repeat of the 2008 run up to $147 a barrel.
Analysts believe that OPEC members, especially Saudi Arabia, would likely step in and add production to ensure the economic recovery is not derailed.
(Factbox on key differences between 2008 and 2011 for oil markets: CONTANGO

U.S. crude futures remain in a stubborn contango, whereby prompt oil is cheaper than barrels for later delivery, a market condition that encourages storage. The spread between front-month February and March crude futures had the premium for March crude as high as $1 intraday on Monday.
Some brokers thought positions being rolled into the March contract may have helped curb the gains of front-month futures.

Three risks to start 2011

LONDON | Fri Dec 31, 2010 8:29am EST

LONDON (Reuters) - Financial markets enter 2011 with many investors persuaded that the world economy is on the mend and that riskier assets such as stocks are set to do well.

Data from Reuters asset allocation polls and State Street's investor confidence index suggest investors are positioned for more stock gains and a continued move away from supposedly safer assets such as government bonds and low-yielding cash.

The Reuters polls, for example, showed equity holdings among leading investors at a 10-month high in December, while State Street's index for the month moved into bullish territory for the first time since March.
But the waning days of 2010 suggest investors will almost immediately have to face three major risks to their rather bullish mood.

In no particular order, those are: China's trade, America's economy and the fate of billions of dollars pumped into benchmark government bonds.
Of the three, the pace of recovery in the U.S. economy will be most clearly on display, with monthly U.S. jobs data due to be released on January 7.
It may take on extra importance this month as much of the change in investors' appetite for risk has come about as signs have increased that the U.S. slowdown in mid-2010 was only temporary.

U.S. equities, for example, have recovered to the extent that the over-the-counter Nasdaq index .IXIC has actually outperformed much-touted emerging market stocks, as measured by MSCI .MSCIEF.
But some data was disappointing in the past week, notably consumer sentiment and housing, which, with jobs, go to the heart of future confidence and spending.

U.S. equities have been among the big winners since Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made clear in August that the Fed would buy more assets to boost liquidity in the U.S. economy.
The S&P 500 index .SPX, for example, is up around 20 percent since his Jackson Hole August 27 speech.
So any sign that the U.S. economy is not recovering as thought could cause an early reversal.

PRICEY TREASURIES

A not-unrelated worry is the Treasury market, which has been hit by a combination of rising prices for riskier assets, the impact of tax cuts on the already large U.S. deficit, and a general feeling that bonds may be overbought.
The past few weeks have seen a few days of large sell-offs, including one following dismal demand at an auction for five-year paper.

"Short- to medium-term maturities generally offer poor value," Tristan Hanson, strategist at wealth manager Ashburton told clients recently.
He added, however, that longer-term 30-year paper was a good backstop against any renewal of concern about global growth.

An orderly sell-off of bonds would not unduly worry investors and would fit with their scenario of rising "risk" assets.
Were Treasuries and other benchmark bonds such as Bunds to sell off too sharply, however, significantly higher yields would unsettle investors and have the reverse impact on liquidity than that sought after by the Fed and various other authorities.
Reuters latest polls on expected bond yields found a median projection of 3.40 percent for U.S. Treasuries around a year from now. The yield has already revisited those levels this week.

RARE EARTH

The third risk that investors may face in the coming week is China's decision to cut its export quotas for rare earth minerals by 35 percent for the first half of 2011 versus a year ago.
Rare earth minerals are used in a range of products from MP3 players and computer hard drives to hybrid cars, wind turbines, light bulbs and coffee makers.
They are also not as scarce as their name implies, but China has cornered about 97 percent of the market by producing them far cheaper than anyone else can.
The issue for investors is not so much whether the prices rise -- although it won't ease the concerns of those who fear a return to inflation in the developed world.

What may concern them most is the potential for China's action to trigger trade disputes. The United States and European Union have already either expressed concerns or reminded China of its supply obligations.
It may prove a fleeting concern, but investors have listed for some time the danger of trade wars as one of the biggest threats to the recovering global economy.

Headline News 31.12.10

AS & GLOBAL :
 
• Bursa saham AS ditutup melemah tipis akibat minimnya aksi beli investor dimana data ekonomi AS yang dirilis diluar perkiraan tidak
berhasil mengangkat minat investor pada aset beresiko. Indes S&P 500 naik 6,5% sepanjang Desember, merupakan performa
Desember terbaik sejak 1991. Laporan dari sektor tenaga kerja, aktivitas bisnis dan perumahan semua menunjukkan perbaikan yang
mengejutkan. Klaim pengangguran AS turun ke level terendah sejak Juli 2008, sedangkan laporan dari Institut for Supply
Management ‐ Chicago menunjukkan aktivitas bisnis di Midwest AS naik ke level tertinggi sejak Juli 2008. Sementara itu pending
home sales pada November juga meningkat lebih dari yang diantisipasi.
 
• Indeks Dow Jones <DJI.> turun 15,67 poin atau 0,14% ke 11,569.71, indeks S&P500 <. SPX> turun 1,86 poin atau 0,15% ke 1,257.92,
sementara Nasdaq <. IXIC> turun 3,95 poin atau 0,15% ke 2,662.98.
 
• Dollar AS melemah secara luas pada sesi Kamis 30 Desember menyusul berlanjutnya ekspektasi bahwa imbal hasil obligasi AS akan
terus melandai pada tahun 2011. Swiss franc mencapai rekor tertinggi terhadap euro dan dolar dan berpotensi melanjutkan
kenaikan pada 2011 menyusul masih dominannya kekhawatiran krisis hutang Uni‐Eropa yang potensial meningkatkan permintaan
untuk mata uang safe haven.
 
• Dollar AS juga anjlok terhadap yen, meskipun berhasil menjauh dari level terendah selama 7‐pekan terakhir menyusul rilis data
ekonomi AS yang lebih baik dari perkiraan yang meningkatkan optimisme pada kondisi ekonomi AS yang berhasil mengangkat imbal
hasil obligasi. Tingginya imbal hasil obligasi akan membuat aset berdenominasi dollar AS akan menjadi lebih menarik. Dollar turun
0.2% ke 81.55 yen. Euro jatuh kelevel terendah 1,2398 franc <EURCHF=EBS> dan potensial membukukan penurunan sekitar 16%
terhadap Swiss franc sepanjang 2010. Sementara itu dollar AS anjlok sekitar 10% terhadap Swiss franc sepanjang 2010. Terhadap
dolar, euro tercatat menguat 0,5% kelevel 1.3289 <EUR=EBS>. Terhadap Swiss franc, dollar AS turun menjadi 1% kelevel 0,9356 franc
<CHF=EBS>. Aussie dollar berhasil mencapai rekor harga tertinggi dalam kurun 28‐tahun terakhir ke 1.0198 terhadap dollar AS
<AUD=D4>.
 
• Harga emas ditutup melemah pada sesi Kamis 30 Desember. Namun demikian, emas berhasil membukukan kenaikan tahunan
terbesar dalam tiga tahun terakhir dan menjadi rekor kenaikan tahunan dalam 10 tahun berturut‐turut ditopang ketidakpastian
pemulihan ekonomi global dan fluktuasi kurs mata uang dunia. Emas anjlok menyusul aksi ambil untung pelaku pasar setelah rilis
data ekonomi AS yang cukup optimis, yang menopang ekspektasi bahwa ekonomi mendapatkan momentum menjelang pergantian
tahun. Harga spot emas <XAU=> turun 0,4% kelevel 1,404.80 USD per troy ounce.
 
• Harga minyak mentah AS merosot di bawah 90 USD per barel menyusul maraknya aksi ambil untung pelaku pasar seiring performa
minyak yang sempat naik hingga di atas 91 USD. Investor tidak terlalu terpengaruh pada rilis data ekonomi AS yang membaik dan
laporan yang menunjukkan persediaan minyak mentah AS turun dalam sepekan terakhir. Stok minyak mentah AS turun 1,26 juta
barel minggu lalu, lebih baik dari perkiraan. Minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Februari <CLG1> turun 1,28 USD atau 1,4% kelevel
89,84 USD per barel.

Headline News 30.12.10

AS & GLOBAL :
 
. Indeks S&P500 menuju performa terbaik bulanan sejak dua dekade terakhir setelah menguat signifikan dalam sesi dengan volume
yang tipis terangkat oleh optimisme investor tentang kondisi ekonomi pada tahun 2011. Indeks S&P telah menguat 6,8% sepanjang
Desember. Namun, investor tengah menunggu performa saham di bulan Januari untuk melihat apakah pola naik saham]saham
memang bertahan. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 10,52 poin atau 0,09% ke 11,586.06, indeks S&P500 <. SPX> naik 1,34 poin atau
0,11% ke 1,259.85, indeks Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 4,05 poin atau 0,15% ke 2,666.93.
 
. Dollar AS mencapai titik terendah dalam kurun 7]pekan terakhir terhadap yen, dollar AS juga melemah terhadap euro seiring
pelemahan imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah AS akibat suksesnya penjualan obligasi pada Rabu 29 Desember yang kemudian
mengurangi daya tarik terhadap dollar AS. Sementara itu, naiknya performa saham global seiring ekspektasi pertumbuhan ekonomi
yang lebih kuat pada tahun 2011 juga mengangkat minat investor pada mata uang beresiko dan menekan dollar As sebagai instrumen
investasi safe haven. Dollar AS jatuh hingga 81,61 yen <JPY=EBS>, level terendah sejak 10 November, dollar tercatat melemah 1% ke
81,64 yen. Aussie dollar <AUD=D4> menguat kelevel 1,0184, level puncak sepanjang 28]tahun terakhir terhadap dollar As. Naiknya
harga komoditas akhir]akhir ini mendorong Aussie dollar dan membantu investor menghindari rasa takut akan kenaikan suku bunga
baru]baru ini China berpotensi memperlambat perekonomian.
 
. Euro sempat mencapai level tertinggi di 1,3240 <EUR=EBS>, sebelum ditutup naik 0,8% ke 1.3219. Para analis mengatakan reposisi
akhir tahun para investor turut mempengaruhi pergerakan harga belakangan ini. Sebagaimana yang terjadi pada yen dan Swiss franc
dimana repatriasi dan pembelian oleh korporasi membantu kinerja kedua mata uang tersebut menjelang akhir tahun. Euro tercatat
melemah 0.5% kelevel 1,2511 terhadap Swiss franc <EURCHF=EBS>, sementara dollar AS turun menjadi 0,9466 franc <CHF=EBS>.
 
. Emas naik ke level tertinggi dalam tiga minggu terakhir sementara perak naik menuju level tertinggi dalam 30]tahun terakhir,
ditopang volume perdagangan yang tipis dan pelemahan dollar AS. Minat beli emas meningkat menyusul pelemahan dollar AS ke level
terendah dalam tujuh minggu terakhir terhadap yen, dollar AS juga melemah terhadap sterling dan euro. Imbal hasil obligasi AS turun
menyusul lelang yang solid, mengurangi daya tarik terhadap dollar AS. Harga spot emas <XAU=> naik 0,4% menjadi 1,410.69 USD
pertroy ounce, setelah sempat naik hingga 1,413.95 USD per troy ounce.
 
. Harga minyak jatuh pada sesi Rabu 29 Desember, namun masih berkutat didekat level tertinggi 26]bulan terakhir. Pelemahan minyak
dipengaruhi aksi ambil untung pelaku pasar ditengah volume perdagangan yang tipis, pelaku pasar menunggu rilis data persediaan
minyak AS. Analis memperkirakan penurunan persediaan minyak mentah dalam 4]minggu berturut]turut dipengaruhi pengurangan
impor minyak oleh para refiner untuk menekan pajak akhir tahun. Minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Februari <CLc1> turun 37 sen
atau 0,4% dilevel 91,12 USD per barel.

Markets close slightly higher, strong December seen

NEW YORK | Wed Dec 29, 2010 4:33pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 headed for its best December in nearly two decades as U.S. stocks advanced in thin trade on Wednesday, lifted by investor optimism about the economy in 2011.

The S&P has gained 6.8 percent so far this month and rose in 17 of the last 20 sessions. However, with volume among the lowest of the year because of the holidays and scarce economic news, some investors are waiting for January to see if the rising pattern holds.

"I don't want to dismiss the recent gains, but I'm not ready to draw a trend line," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago. "I'd like to see how the market responds when we have more participants and tangible news to sink our teeth into."

The S&P, which has already passed the level on September 12, 2008 just before Lehman Brothers collapsed, is on course for its biggest December gain since 1991 when it rose 11.2 percent.
A number of major consumer-linked shares posted solid gains on Wednesday, with McDonald's Corp (MCD.N) up 1.1 percent to $77.27 and Walt Disney Co (DIS.N) up 0.9 percent to $37.69. Both companies are Dow components.

"People are hoping that the consumer is back and that will help fuel the engine and grow some earnings, so that companies will start hiring," said Frank Ingarra, a portfolio manager at Hennessy Funds in Stamford, Connecticut.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 10.52 points, or 0.09 percent, at 11,586.06. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 1.34 points, or 0.11 percent, at 1,259.85. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 4.05 points, or 0.15 percent, at 2,666.93.
Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones on the New York Stock Exchange by a ratio of almost two to one, while on the Nasdaq, about seven stocks rose for every six that fell.

"There's not much conviction behind any of the moves we've seen lately, though there is an upward bias because of window dressing," Ablin said, referring to money managers' year-end trading. "For the rest of the year we should see people trying to fill in around the edges to make their portfolios look better."

BJ's Wholesale Club Inc (BJ.N) jumped 7.1 percent to $47.63 after the New York Post reported buyout firm Leonard Green & Partners remained interested in buying the warehouse club operator and that it may launch a hostile bid.

The Morgan Stanley Retail index .MVR climbed 0.8 percent while the S&P Retail index .RLX gained 0.3 percent.

Sears Holdings Corp (SHLD.O) rose 6.4 percent to $74.49 after it said it launched an on-demand video service to compete with companies like Netflix Inc (NFLX.O).

The online movie renter's stock fell 1.9 percent to $180.27 but is up more than 200 percent this year.
Molycorp Inc (MCP.N), which owns a rare-earth mine in Mountain Pass, California, rose 6.8 percent to $49.34 after China reduced quotas for exporting the minerals, thus threatening to reduce already tight global supplies.

U.S.-listed shares of Brazilian oil firm Petrobras (PZE.N) gained 4.9 percent to $25.89 after it said its reserves could rise significantly due to two deep-water oil fields.
Noble Energy Inc (NBL.N) and its Israeli exploration partners confirmed earlier estimates that the offshore Leviathan prospect was Israel's largest natural gas find. Noble rose 2.6 percent to $87.16.

FOREX-Dollar on defensive after U.S. yields fall

* Dollar sags broadly, hits lows vs yen, Aussie
 
* Traders look to U.S. yields for direction in thin market
* Euro zone debt woes could come back to haunt euro

TOKYO, Dec 30 (Reuters) - The dollar weakened on Thursday, hitting a seven-week low against the yen and a 28-year low against the Australian currency after traders took falls in U.S. bond yields as a cue to sell it.

U.S. Treasuries recovered on Wednesday, pushing yields sharply lower, after a $29 billion auction of seven-year notes drew surprisingly strong demand a day after a weak five-year sale. [ID:nN29284358]
The dollar slipped to 81.40 yen JPY=, its lowest in seven weeks and edging closer to a 15-year low of 80.21 yen hit in November.

As thin trading due to the New Year's holiday tends to exaggerate currency moves, market players say there is risk of the dollar falling near the November low or even to its postwar low of 79.75 yen marked in 1995.
Data on U.S. initial jobless claims later in the day and more importantly U.S. manufacturing data due on Monday could provide the impetus to push the dollar down, they said.

Keiji Matsumoto, a strategist at Nikko Cordial Securities, also said a rise in the Chinese yuan after China's rate hike last Saturday is supporting Asian currencies, including the yen.
The yuan has risen near a record high as Chinese central bank has fixed its mid-point near the high for the past two days.

"There will be speculation that China may engineer a higher yuan ahead of Chinese President Hu Jintao's state visit to the United States next month," he said. Hu will visit Washington on Jan. 19. [ID:nTOE6BM01F]
The euro stayed near Wednesday's high, changing hands at $1.3227 EUR=, which corresponds to a 38.2 percent retracement of its fall from $1.35 to $1.3055 earlier this month.

The currency's stubborn refusal to break below the 200-day moving average, now at $1.3086, has frustrated bearish investors who think the euro-zone debt crisis could spread to Spain and Portugal in early 2011.
On the upside, it could target $1.3275-80, its high on Tuesday as well as a 50 percent retracement of that fall.
Still, traders say concerns over debt in some euro zone countries could crop up any time after many investors and policymakers come back from Christmas holidays.
 Already on Wednesday, Ireland's opposition Labour Party threatened to call a vote of no confidence in the deeply unpopular government if it has not set a date for an election by the end of January.

The Australian dollar hit a fresh 28-year high of $1.1095 AUD=D4 against a broadly weakening dollar.
Rising commodity prices have boosted the Aussie and helped investors shrug off fears that a recent Chinese interest rate hike would slow China's economy and thus dampen demand for Australian exports. London Metal Exchange copper hit a record high [MET/L].

Headline News 29.12.10

AS & GLOBAL :
 
• Indeks Dow dan S&P500 berhasil menguat dalam sesi perdagangan yang tipis, melanjutkan kenaikannya selama Desember, menyusul cuaca dingin di
timur laut AS yang mengangkat harga minyak dan saham sektor energi. Badai salju yang melanda menaikkan permintaan untuk heating oil, mendorong
harga minyak mentah di atas 91 USD per barel dan mengangkat S&P sektor energi sebesar 0,4% <GSPE.>. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 20,51 poin
atau 0,18% di 11,575.54, S&P500 <. SPX> naik 0,98 poin atau 0,08% ke 1,258.52 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> turun 4,39 poin atau 0,16% ke 2,662.88.
 
• Data‐data ekonomi yang dirilis tidak terlalu mempengaruhi pergerakan harga. Kepercayaan konsumen AS secara tak terduga memburuk pada bulan
Desember, terpengaruh oleh kekhawatiran tentang sektor tenaga kerja, sementara harga rumah AS pada bulan Oktober turun hampir dua kali lipat
dari perkiraan.
 
• Dollar mencapai rekor rendah terhadap Swiss franc dan mencapai titik terendah 6‐1/2‐pekan terhadap yen pada Selasa 28 Desember setelah Jepang
melaporkan factory output yang mengalami kenaikan pada bulan November untuk pertama kalinya dalam enam bulan terakhir. Tetapi penurunan
kepercayaan konsumen AS dan kekhawatiran tentang krisis utang Eropa membantu mengangkat dollar AS terhadap euro <EUR=>, yang bergerak
diantara kisaran 1,3274 hingga 1,3091, namun tercatat turun 0.3% ke 1.3116. Naiknya imbal hasil obligasi AS yang didorong oleh lemahnya penjualan
Treasury note bertenor 5‐tahun, turut mendukung rebound dolar terhadap euro dan menutup penurunan terhadap yen.
 
• Dollar AS turun 0,4% menjadi 82,42 yen <JPY=EBS> setelah sebelumnya sempat anjlok hingga 81,81, level terendah sejak November, sementara euro
mencapai titik terendah 3‐1/2‐bulan terakhir ke 107,64 <EURJPY=> yen. Para pelaku pasar menyatakan pelemahan dollar AS dalam beberapa hari
terakhir merefleksikan aksi repatriasi akhir tahun oleh para eksportir Jepang. Hal serupa juga turut mendukung kinerja Swiss franc, dimana maraknya
aksi pembelian franc oleh korporasi mendorong dollar anjlok kelevel terendah 0,9435 franc <CHF=EBS>, dan tercatat melemah 0,8% ke 0.9520 franc.
 
• Harga emas melonjak hampir 1,5% sementara harga perak melesat ke rekor 30‐tahun tertinggi, dengan volume perdagangan tipis ditengah harapan
berlanjutnya tren bullish untuk tahun depan mengangkat laju logam mulia tersebut diatas 1.400 USD per troy ounce untuk pertama kalinya dalam dua
minggu terakhir. Harga emas saat ini berada di lajur penguatan sebesar 28% sepanjang 2010, rekor kenaikan performa tahunan dalam 10 tahun
berturut‐turut. Harga spot emas <XAU=> naik 1.56% ke level 1,405.26 USD per troy ounce setelah sempat naik kelevel tertinggi di 1,406.75 USD per
troy ounce, tertinggi sejak 14 Desember.
 
• Harga minyak naik 47 sen pada hari Selasa 28 Desember, bangkit dari pelemahan 51 sen pada awal pekan ini dan berhasil ditutup menguat kelevel
tertinggi dalam kurun 24‐bulan terakhir. Harga minyak mentah AS mendapatkan dukungan dari pelemahan dollar AS yang merosot terhadap mata
uang utama dunia. Minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Februari <CLG1> tercatat menguat 47 sen kelevel 91,47 USD per barel.

China cuts rare earth export quotas, U.S. concerned

BEIJING | Tue Dec 28, 2010 6:07pm EST

BEIJING (Reuters) - China said on Tuesday it will cut its export quotas for rare earth minerals by more than 11 percent in the first half of 2011, further shrinking supplies of metals needed to make a range of high-tech products.

China produces about 97 percent of rare earth minerals, used worldwide in high-technology, clean energy and other products that exploit their special properties for magnetism, luminescence and strength.
The rare earth issue could further strain U.S.-China ties, which have been battered this year by arguments over human rights, Tibet, Taiwan, the value of the Chinese currency and North Korean military attacks on South Korea.

Chinese President Hu Jintao is due to visit the United States next month for talks with President Barack Obama that both sides hope can stabilize the vital relationship.
Beijing says its curbs are for environmental reasons and to guarantee supplies to Chinese clean energy firms it is trying to promote internationally. But it has also said its dominance as a producer should give it more control over global prices.

China's Commerce Ministry allotted 14,446 tons of quotas to 31 companies, which was 11.4 percent less than the 16,304 tons it allocated to 22 companies in the first half of 2010 quotas a year ago.
China slashed the export quota by 40 percent in 2010. The export restraints on rare earths has inflamed trade ties with the United States, European Union and Japan in particular.
In Washington, the U.S. Trade Representative's office expressed concern over the latest announcement.
"We are very concerned about China's export restraints on rare earth materials. We have raised our concerns with China and we are continuing to work closely on the issue with stakeholders," a USTR spokeswoman said.

Last week, the trade representative's office said China had refused U.S. requests to end export restraints on rare earths, and the United States could complain to the World Trade Organization, which judges international trade disputes.

TURBINES AND HYBRIDS

Wind turbines and hybrid cars are among the biggest users of rare earth minerals, which analysts say are facing a global supply crunch as demand swells. The minerals are also used in some weapons systems.
This little-known class of 17 related elements is also used for a vast array of electronic devices ranging from Apple's iPhone to flat-screen TVs, all of which are competing for the 120,000 tons of annual global supply.
While industrial users of rare earths in industrialized countries face tighter supplies and higher prices, China's export curbs have created opportunities to open mines or revive dormant production in Canada, Australia and the United States.

After China's announcement, shares of Molycorp Inc, the Colorado-based company that owns a rare earth mine in California, rose as much as 11.6 percent.
But the headline-driven surge in a firm whose value has tripled since July proved only temporary, in part reflecting the fact that Molycorp's rare-earth mine in Mountain Pass, California, is due to come back online only late next year.

Canada alone has at least 26 publicly traded companies, including Great Western Minerals Group and Rare Element Resources, that have rare earth projects in some stage of exploration.
Jack Lifton of Technology Metals Research, a Chicago-based consultancy, said Molycorp and Australia's Lynas Corporation Ltd can eventually offset shortfalls from Chinese cuts in supply and refining capacity -- but not before early 2013.

"Until one of them can produce commercial quantities of high-purity rare earths on a regular basis, the market will belong to the Chinese entirely," he said.
In a short statement on its website (www.mofcom.gov.cn), the Chinese Commerce Ministry said it had added more producer companies to the quota list but cut volumes allocated to trading companies.

CLEAN UP, CONSOLIDATION IN CHINA

Japan has been hard hit by the export curbs. Japanese imports of rare earths shrank further in November, reflecting the impact from China's de-facto ban on shipments of the minerals that was lifted late last month.
The European Union has also expressed concern over China's limiting of rare earth exports, though the bloc's trade commissioner said earlier this month China had reiterated that rare earth supplies would be sustained.
With more than 100 mines and some 40 refineries, "the Chinese seem to be quite serious about cleaning up the sector environmentally and consolidating it," said Lifton.

Beijing has been trying hard to impose discipline on its chaotic rare earth sector and is expected to establish a rare earth industry association by next May, said Wang Caifeng, an official with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, speaking at a conference on Tuesday.
Tougher environmental regulations for the rare earth sector are also expected to be unveiled next year, the China Business News reported on Tuesday.

Wall Street ends flat as investors shrug off China hike

NEW YORK | Mon Dec 27, 2010 4:50pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street erased earlier losses and ended little changed on Monday as investors shrugged off a surprise weekend interest rate hike from China's central bank.

In a quiet day for equities with no major economic data or corporate news, trading volume, which usually dips during the holiday season, was even lighter as a blizzard moved across the northeastern United States.
Financial stocks rose, in part boosted by a rally in American International Group shares, and helped the S&P 500 cut losses and turn positive in afternoon trade.

"The market is pretty much flat but we ended well off our lows and although we have no buyers stepping in, we have to give the bulls the victory seeing how the market turned around," said Ryan Detrick, technical analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research at Cincinnati, Ohio.
"Today is an exception but this week is typically considered the Santa Claus rally time and we expect that to resume later this week and end the year higher."
The Dow Jones industrial average settled down 20.73 points, or 0.18 percent, at 11,552.76. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 0.74 points, or 0.06 percent, at 1,257.51. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 4.25 points, or 0.16 percent, at 2,669.85.
Shares of AIG rose as much as nearly 12 percent as investors applauded the insurer's move to secure $4.3 billion in credit facilities.

The stock ended up 9.3 percent at $59.38. The S&P financial sector index gained nearly 1 percent.
But retail stocks were hit as the snowstorm on the heavily populated U.S. East Coast kept many shoppers away from malls just after Christmas, casting a pall on the final act of the holiday season. The weekend's blizzard conditions, which shut down airports and halted traffic, may also signal an end to shoppers' appetite in the next few months.

The S&P 500 retail index fell 0.3 percent, underperforming the wider market.
Among retailers, Nordstrom Inc shares fell 1.6 percent to $42.09 and RadioShack was down 0.1 percent at $18.47.
The CBOE Volatility Index jumped 7.3 percent to 17.67, only one session after closing at its lowest levels since July 2007.

The VIX "is beginning to price in the possibility of more volatile trading in early 2011," said Fred Ruffy, options strategist at WhatsTrading.com.
The VIX measures projected stock market volatility off of near-term S&P 500 index option prices and often moves inversely to the benchmark S&P.

China's central bank raised interest rates on Saturday for the second time in just over two months as it stepped up its battle to rein in stubbornly high inflation. The People's Bank of China said it will raise the benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to 5.81 percent and lift the benchmark deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent.

About 2 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, compared to the daily average of about 4.8 billion shares this year.
Trading in the options market was also thin, with 3.7 million calls and 2.6 million puts traded, or about half the daily average.
Advancing stocks slightly outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by 1,582 to 1,312, while on the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners 1,483 to 1,114.

China's Wen confident on inflation after rate rise

BEIJING | Sun Dec 26, 2010 6:09pm EST

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's government will be able to keep inflation in check, Premier Wen Jiabao said on Sunday, a day after the central bank raised interest rates, and he pledged to speed up efforts to rein in house price surges.

Steps taken in the past month, including administrative controls to curb speculation and monetary tightening, had started to produce results, Wen said.
The People's Bank of China raised interest rates on Christmas Day for a second time in just over two months as Beijing strengthened its battle against stubbornly high inflation.
Analysts said the latest rise showed that measures such as increasing banks' required reserve requirements to rein in liquidity were not enough on their own, and that the Chinese authorities were determined to keep inflation under control.

"We have raised reserve requirement ratio for six consecutive times and increased interest rates twice to absorb excess liquidity in the market to keep it at a reasonable level to support economic development," Wen said in a state radio broadcast a day after the rate rise.
"I believe we can keep prices at a reasonable level through our efforts. As a major leader of the government, I have the responsibility and I have the confidence, too," he said in remarks published on www.cnr.cn.
The rate rise came after Beijing said earlier in December it was switching to a "prudent" monetary policy, from its earlier "moderately loose" stance.
"The rate rise shows China is quickening its pace to normalize monetary policies," said Ba Shusong, a senior economist with the Development Research Center, under the State Council, the country's cabinet.
"The front-loaded tightening, before the peak of consumer inflation in the first half of 2011, is helpful to curb inflationary expectations," Ba was quoted as saying on the financial website www.caing.com.

AHEAD OF THE CURVE

Chinese authorities have repeatedly stressed the importance of staying ahead of the curve in the battle against inflation.
"Inflationary expectation is worse than inflation itself," Wen said in the radio broadcast.
"When there is inflation, we must establish confidence, know our vantage points and take forceful and decisive measures in a timely manner to curb price rises."
The central bank said on Friday it would deploy a range of measures to head off inflationary pressures and asset bubbles.

China also intensified its property tightening measures in April and September in an attempt to brake soaring property prices.
"Until now, the measures are not implemented well enough, and we will reinforce our efforts in two ways," Wen said.
The government plans to build 10 million units of affordable housing in 2011, up from this year's target of 5.8 million.

China will also increase efforts to curb speculation in the real estate market, mainly through monetary policies and stricter use of land, Wen said, without giving details.
Property transactions as well as land costs, a major contributor to high housing prices, have shown signs of a rebound in recent weeks, triggering concerns of more tightening.
Despite all the challenges, Wen said: "I believe property prices will return to reasonable levels through our efforts. I have the confidence."

Chinese stock markets have shed nearly 10 percent since mid-November on concerns the government would ratchet up its monetary policy tightening in the face of rising inflation.
However, analysts suggested China's share market could push higher on Monday on optimism about the overall outlook for shares in 2011.

Gold slips nearly 1 percent on China's interest rate hike

SINGAPORE | Sun Dec 26, 2010 7:40pm EST

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Spot gold fell nearly one percent on Monday, and other precious metals also declined, after China raised interest rates over the weekend.

On Saturday China's central bank raised interest rates for the second time in just over two months, underscoring concerns that inflation may be entrenched and swift action is needed to get price pressure under control.

Spot gold fell to a one-week low of $1,371.1, before recovering to $1,373.35 an ounce by 7:04 p.m. EST GMT, down 0.8 percent from the previous close.
U.S. gold futures shed 0.4 percent to $1,374.4.
Spot silver fell 1.4 percent to $28.81, and touched a one-week low of $28.75.
Spot platinum declined one percent to $1,706, and spot palladium also fell one percent to $745.5.
China's rate hike is likely to weigh on commodity market on Monday. Commodities have been riding on inflation anticipation in China, a key market for nearly all commodities.
The dollar edged up against a basket of currencies in early trade on Monday.

PRICES
Precious metals prices at 0004 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pct chg Turnover
Spot Gold 1373.35 -10.90 -0.79 25.34
Spot Silver 28.81 -0.40 -1.37 71.18
Spot Platinum 1706.00 -16.50 -0.96 16.29
Spot Palladium 745.50 -7.50 -1.00 83.85
TOCOM Gold 3674.00 -34.00 -0.92 12.73 12674
TOCOM Platinum 4620.00 -63.00 -1.35 5.46 3160
TOCOM Silver 77.00 -1.30 -1.66 48.94 329
TOCOM Palladium 2007.00 -28.00 -1.38 72.27 255
Euro/Dollar 1.3082
Dollar/Yen 82.91
TOCOM prices in yen per gram. Spot prices in $ per ounce.

Nikkei edges higher, China rate hike taken in stride

TOKYO | Sun Dec 26, 2010 7:22pm EST
 

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average edged 0.3 percent higher on Monday with increased appetite toward global equities in recent weeks lending support and helping offset any concerns from China's raising of interest rates on the weekend.
The benchmark Nikkei rose 0.3 percent or 32.55 points to 10,310.85.
The broader Topix index was 0.1 percent higher at 902.52.

Stocks, oil rise in festive cheer

PARIS | Sat Dec 25, 2010 5:07pm EST

PARIS (Reuters) - World stocks held near the previous day's two-year high on Friday while oil hit fresh two-year peaks after strong U.S. data this week encouraged investors to maintain their risk positions into 2011.

Thursday's U.S. data showing that demand for a range of long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods surged in November and consumer spending rose for a fifth straight month reinforced expectations for strong economic growth in the fourth quarter.

"We've had a good run, helped by quantitative easing and better economic data," said Bernard McAlinden, investment strategist at NCB Stockbrokers in Dublin. "We've broken out of ranges, and it can go higher in 2011."

The MSCI world equity index .MIWD00000PUS edged higher to just below Thursday's peak, which was its highest since September 2008, set just before the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

The index is up 9.6 percent this year.

Fund tracker EPFR said investor focus shifted from bonds to equities in the final weeks of 2010, with equity funds globally taking in a net $4.5 billion for the week ending December 22. Bond funds saw redemptions totaling $2.3 billion.

The Thomson Reuters global stock index .TRXFLDGLPU dipped slightly, but the FTSEurofirst 300 index .FTEU3 rose about 0.1 percent.
Ratings agency Fitch downgraded Portugal on Thursday, citing burgeoning debt levels and a tough financing environment, a move analysts said was largely expected by investors.
The downgrade puts Fitch's rating for Portugal on a par with Moody's A1 rating, but still two notches above that of Standard and Poor's A-minus.
Trading was very light, with markets closed in Germany, Italy, Spain, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Greece, Austria, Hungary, and Iceland. U.S. markets were also closed to observe the Christmas holiday.

Emerging market stocks .MSCIEF fell slightly.

U.S. crude oil rose more than 1 percent to $91.41 a barrel as unusually cold weather fueled demand and depleted supplies.
Snow and more frigid temperatures were predicted in parts of Europe over the weekend, threatening to prolong chaos at airlines and rail networks and further boost fuel demand.
The bund future fell 32 ticks.
The U.S. dollar .DXY fell less than 0.1 percent against a basket of major currencies, while the euro was mostly unchanged at $1.3114.

Headline News 23.12.10

AS & GLOBAL :
 
• Bursa Wall Street berhasil menguat pada sesi Rabu 22 Desember, ditopang kenaikan indeks S&P500 kelevel tertinggi sejak akhir 2008 silam terdorong
penguatan saham‐saham perbankan yang performanya mandek selama Desember. Secara umum penguatan bursa terdorong naiknya optimisme
mengenai pertumbuhan ekonomi AS ditengah krisis hutang yang melanda Uni‐Eropa. Saham‐saham sektor perbankan ‐ yang menjadi episentrum
krisis kredit dua tahun yang lalu ‐ mempimpin kenaikan indeks hingga akhir tahun 2010. Indeks Dow Jones naik 26,33 poin atau 0,23% ke 11,559.49,
indeks S&P500 naik 4,24 poin atau 0,34% ke 1,258.84 dan indeks Nasdaq naik tipis 3,87 poin atau 0,15% ke 2,671.48.
 
• Euro kembali anjlok kelevel terendah sepanjang sejarah terhadap Swiss franc ke 1.2435, atau turun 16% sepanjang 2010 menyusul krisis hutang di
kawasan Uni‐Eropa yang berimbas pada meningkatnya status safe haven pada Swiss franc. Namun demikian, euro justru sempat menguat ke 1.3181
terhadap dollar AS setelah adanya rumor bahwa pemerintah Cina tengah menjajaki kemungkinan pembelian obligasi Portugis dalam jumlah yang
cukup signifikan. Pemerintah Beijing diperkirakan akan melakukan pembelian obligasi Portugis senilai antara 4 hingga 5 miliar euro untuk membantu
tekanan yang melanda Portugis akhir‐akhir ini. Turut mendukung performa euro antara lain adalah data GDP Q3 Amerika yang mengalami revisi naik
menjadi 2.6% meskipun masih lebih rendah dari perkiraan 2.8%. Terhadap yen, euro tercatat anjlok 0.3% ke 109.42, dan dollar AS turun 0.3% ke
83.54 yen, sementara Sterling anjlok 0.5% ke level terendah sejak 3‐bulan terakhir terhadap dollar AS.
 
• Departemen Perdagangan AS melaporkan kenaikan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 2,6% pada kuartal ketiga melebihi estimasi sebelumnya 2,5%.
Para ekonom memprediksi produk domestik bruto AS akan menguat menjadi 3 hingga 3,5% pada kuartal keempat 2010. Sementara itu dalam
laporan terpisah, National Association of Realtors menyatakan penjualan existing home naik 5,6% pada November menjadi sebanyak 4,68 juta unit.
 
• Harga emas dunia ditutup melemah tipis terpengaruh pelemahan euro terhadap dollar AS dalam sesi perdagangan yang tipis menjelang libur akhir
tahun. Mencuatnya kekhawatiran pada krisis hutang Uni‐Eropa akibat serangkaian downgrade lembaga pemeringkat dunia pada beberapa negara di
kawasan Uni‐Eropa telah mendukung permintaan pada aset berstatus safe haven. Harga spot emas <XAU=> tawaran pada $ 1,384.95 USD per ounce.
 
• Harga minyak dunia melonjak di atas 90 USD per barel ditutup dilevel tertinggi sejak 26‐bulan terakhir menyusul turunnya laporan cadangan minyak
mentah AS dan didukung cuaca dingin yang menaikkan permintaan pada produk turunan minyak menjelang liburan akhir tahun. Minyak mentah AS
untuk pengiriman Februari <CLc1> naik 66 sen ke 90,48 USD per barel.

Senate approves nuclear arms treaty with Russia

WASHINGTON | Wed Dec 22, 2010 6:52pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Senate approved a landmark nuclear arms control treaty with Russia on Wednesday, giving President Barack Obama a major foreign policy victory in his drive to improve ties with Moscow and curb the spread of atomic weapons to other nations.

The Senate voted 71-26 in favor of the New START treaty between the former Cold War foes after a contentious debate with Republican leaders that threatened traditional bipartisanship on security affairs.
"This treaty will enhance our leadership to stop the spread of nuclear weapons and seek the peace of a world without them," Obama told a news conference after the vote, praising the bipartisan nature of the final result.
The vote was an endorsement of Obama's efforts to improve relations with Russia and curb the pursuit of nuclear weapons by countries like North Korea and Iran.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the process was "a new gold standard for concluding agreements of this kind."
"Not only does the treaty facilitate a strengthening of the security of Russia and the USA but it will also have a positive effect on international stability and security in general," Lavrov told the Interfax news agency.

The Russian parliament has yet to approve the treaty -- signed by Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in April -- but the Kremlin-backed United Russia party is dominant, so ratification there is all but assured.
Still, Russian lawmakers will review the terms in the U.S. Senate's resolution of ratification.

"Taking into account the amendments added by senators, we are forced to undertake a deep and thorough analysis of the text ... since we are speaking about the national security of our country," Leonid Slutsky, deputy chair of parliament's international affairs committee, told Interfax.
Senator John Kerry, who led the debate as chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, said the treaty was a message to Iran and North Korea "that the international community remains united to restrain the nuclear ambitions of countries that operate outside the law."

"We send a message that the two countries that possess 90 percent of the world's nuclear weapons are fulfilling their obligations to reduce their arsenals in a responsible manner," Kerry said.
The treaty will cut long-range, strategic nuclear weapons deployed by Russia and the United States to no more than 1,550 on each side within seven years. Deployed missile launchers will be cut to no more than 700 on each side.
The agreement also creates an inspection and verification process to replace the one that expired nearly a year ago with the end of the original START accord.

The new treaty has wide support in military and diplomatic circles. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said it would make a "significant contribution" to regional security and U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said it was a "clear message" supporting nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation.

U.S. CREDIBILITY AT STAKE
 Passage of the treaty with support from 13 Republicans was a big victory for Obama just weeks after his Democrats lost control of the House of Representatives and narrowly retained control of the Senate in the November 2 congressional elections.

Republican senators had sought to amend the treaty this week to allow for more inspections, more deployed missiles and to force talks on tactical nuclear weapons. But Democrats, who still control the chamber 58-42 until the new Congress sits in January, easily defeated the amendments.
Kerry said Senate approval was critical for sustaining Obama's credibility with fellow world leaders and supporting his ability to advance the U.S. agenda.

Officials in the Obama administration have said passage of the New START treaty was a prerequisite for turning to other arms control issues such as reducing tactical nuclear weapons.
But Jon Kyl, the second-ranking Republican in the Senate and an opponent of New START, said he would fight any effort to revive the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.

"This may be the last arms control agreement for a while," Kyl said. "I think we can get back to focusing on the real issues -- issues of proliferation, terrorism and dealing with threats from countries like North Korea and Iran."
Arms control experts disagreed, hailing the treaty as a step in the right direction.
Steven Pifer, director of the Arms Control Initiative at the Brookings think tank, said failure of the treaty would have undercut Obama on the world stage.

"Virtually all the NATO allies came out and endorsed this treaty," he said. "And had the Obama administration not been able to deliver its ratification, I think that it would have really been a blow to the credibility and authority of the president when he was engaging overseas."

While the treaty will not cause Iran or North Korea to alter their behavior, Pifer said, "it does give the administration a greater authority with other countries to up the pressure on North Korea and Iran."

Daryl Kimball, director of the nonpartisan Arms Control Association, said the treaty "does augur well for the Senate's pursuing further fact-based, adult conversations about nuclear security issues and I'm optimistic about the prospects for building upon this bipartisan consensus."

Headline News 22.12.10

AS & GLOBAL :
 
• Bursa saham AS menguat ditopang membaiknya sebagian laporan earning korporasi dan aktifitas merjer yang menopang stabilnya tren naik,
memperkuat optimisme investor untuk tahun mendatang. Indeks S&P500 mencapai level tertinggi dalam 2‐tahun terakhir, indeks telah
menguat 6,3% selama Desember dan naik 12,5% selama 2010. Sektor keuangan memimpin penguatan bursa saham setelah berperforma
buruk sepanjang tahun. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 55,03 poin atau 0,48% ke 11,533.16, indeks S&P <. SPX> naik 7,52 poin atau 0,60% ke
1,254.60 sementara Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 18,05 poin atau 0,68% ke 2,667.61.
 
• Euro melemah terhadap dollar AS menyusul naiknya kekhawatiran akan downgrade lanjutan dari lembaga pemeringkat terkemuka dunia
terhadap negara‐negara kawasan Uni‐Eropa yang tengah mengalami krisis hutang. Kekhawatiran tersebut kemudian menurunkan minat
investor pada euro menjelang akhir tahun. Setelah sebelumnya Moody's memperingatkan kemungkinan downgrade peringkat kredit
Portugis, kini Fitch Ratings mengatakan pihaknya akan memangkas peringkat valuta asing Yunani, hal tersebut memupus komentar
supportive untuk euro dari pemerintah Cina. Sebelumnya, euro sempat menguat terhadap dollar AS terdongkrak pernyataan dari Wakil
Perdana Menteri Cina – Wang Qishan yang mengungkapkan dukungannya terhadap langkah petinggi Uni‐Eropa dalam menangani krisis
finansial kawasan tersebut. Pernyataan pemerintah Cina tersebut menyiratkan salah satu upaya Beijing guna menahan berlanjutnya
pelemahan euro lebih lanjut, Cina tercatat memiliki aset berdenominasi euro senilai 2.65 triliun dollar AS. Komentar tersebut sebelumnya
sempat menyokong penguatan euro hingga diatas level 1,32.
 
• Euro diperkirakan akan berlanjut melemah hingga dibawah level 1.3 dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Euro turun 0,2% kelevel 1,3097
<EUR=>. Sementara itu dollar AS tercatat stagnan terhadap yen di 83,74 yen <JPY=> namun tercatat melemah 0,6% terhadap Swiss franc
<CHF=> ke 0.9587. Euro anjlok kelevel terendah sepanjang sejarah terhadap Swiss franc di 1.2540.
 
• Harga emas dunia kembali menguat pada sesi Selasa 21 Desember menyusul kekhawatiran pada sejumlah kemungkinan downgrade
terhadap beberapa negara Uni‐Eropa yang masih mengalami krisis finansial, kondisi mana kemudian meningkatkan minat investor pada
emas sebagai instrumen investasi yang lebih aman. Para pengamat memprediksi emas akan bergerak dalam kisaran 1.360 USD hingga 1.400
USD per troy ounce hingga akhir tahun 2010, dimana diperkirakan aksi ambil untung institusi keuangan dan perbankan akan marak
menjelang akhir tahun. Harga spot emas <XAU=> tercatat naik tipis ke 1,384.75 USD per ounce.
 
• Naik tajamnya harga gasoline futures kelevel tertinggi sejak 6‐bulan terakhir berhasil menopang kenaikan harga minyak mentah dunia yang
juga ditopang dari meningkatnya ekspektasi pertumbuhan ekonomi yang akan meningkatkan permintaan. Minyak mentah AS untuk
pengiriman Februari <CLc1> naik 40 sen menjadi 89,97 USD per barel.

Arms treaty with Russia nears Senate approval

WASHINGTON | Tue Dec 21, 2010 6:56pm EST

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's strategic nuclear arms treaty with Russia secured enough votes to clear a Republican procedural hurdle on Tuesday and headed toward approval in the Senate this week.

A motion to limit further debate on the treaty passed with 67 votes, the same number needed to secure Senate approval. A final vote on the accord was set for Wednesday after lawmakers debate a rash of last-minute amendments.

"This treaty will make America safer and restore our leadership in global efforts to stop nuclear proliferation," Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid said.
But Senator John Kerry, who led the floor debate as chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, cautioned: "This is not over. We have to count every vote."
At least 12 Republicans have said that they will vote with Democrats to approve the pact, which would give Obama his third major victory on Capitol Hill in less than a week.
He earlier won repeal of the U.S. ban on gays serving openly in the military and passage of an $858 billion deal with Republicans to extend expiring tax cuts and spur economic growth.
The treaty, which would cut strategic atomic weapons deployed by each country to no more than 1,550 within seven years, was signed by Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in April.
It is a centerpiece of Obama's bid to "re-set" relations with Russia, which has been increasingly cooperative on issues related to U.S. national security, from curbing Iran's nuclear program to the war in Afghanistan.
Republican opponents of the accord, angered by the their inability to stop the march toward passage, charged the Obama administration had negotiated a bad treaty that let Russia limit U.S. missile defense options when the real strategic threat was not Moscow but states like North Korea and Iran.
"Nothing that he has done has convinced me that he is committed to missile defense," Senator Lindsey Graham told a news conference, saying Obama was effectively "giving the Russians a veto" over its missile defense plans.

The Senate's top two Republicans -- Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Minority Whip Jon Kyl -- have announced they will vote against START, saying lawmakers haven't had enough time to fully consider the treaty.
But the chamber's third-ranking Republican, Lamar Alexander, joined Democrats on Tuesday in agreeing to end debate and move to approval of the pact.
"I will vote to ratify the New Start Treaty ... because it leaves our country with enough nuclear warheads to blow any attacker to kingdom come, and because the president has committed to an $85 billion, 10-year plan to make sure that those weapons work," Alexander declared in a Senate speech.
Alexander's state of Tennessee is home to one of the nuclear facilities that will receive billions of dollars in modernization funding under an agreement worked out between lawmakers and the White House.
Political analysts say Senate rejection of the treaty would be a major setback to warming ties between the Russia and the United States, giving ammunition to Russian hawks who oppose the thaw in relations with Washington.

Collapse of the pact would also inflict political damage on Medvedev, who has embraced Obama's efforts to improve relations and stepped up Russian support for U.S. efforts to rein in Iran's nuclear program.
There has been far less public or political debate over the treaty in Russia. The Russian State Duma has yet to approve the accord and Medvedev has made clear that parliament should not ratify the treaty until U.S. Senate approval is certain.
Konstantin Kosachyov, the pro-Kremlin chairman of the international affairs committee, said Russian lawmakers would carefully examine the U.S. Senate's resolution of ratification and other declarations before proceeding with their own vote, which could conceivably be held this year.

Headline News 21.12.10

AS & GLOBAL :
 
• Bursa saham AS berhasil melanjutkan penguatan akhir tahunnya dimana kemudian mendorong S&P500 mencapai level tertinggi dalam
kurun 2‐tahun terakhir, menguatkan optimisme investor bahwa indeks masih akan berlanjut menguat hingga awal 2011 mendatang. Volume
perdagangan masih tipis, seperti yang telah diperkirakan sebelumnya akan terjadi secara tradisional menjelang akhir tahun. Investor
cenderung mengambil posisi aman dengan bertahan pada saham‐saham sektor‐sektor yang telah memimpin rally tajam selama Desember,
diantaranya termasuk sektor keuangan, energi dan material. Indeks S&P500 tercatat telah menguat 5,7% selama Desember dan menguat
11,8% selama 2010. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> justru turun 13,78 poin atau 0,12% ke 11,478.13, indeks S&P500 <. SPX> naik 3,17 poin atau
0,25% ke 1,247.08 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 6,59 poin atau 0,25% ke 2,649.56.
 
• Euro melemah kelevel terendahnya dalam kurun 2‐pekan terakhir terhadap dollar AS, anjlok kelevel terendah sepanjang sejarah terhadap
Swiss franc dan Aussie dollar dimana para pelaku pasar masih menyimpan kekhawatiran mendalam mengenai kondisi krisis finansial
kawasan Uni‐Eropa setelah pertemuan petinggi Uni‐Eropa pekan lalu gagal menghasilkan langkah yang lebih agresif guna menanggulangi
krisis obligasi yang melanda kawasan tersebut, yang kemudian ditambah dengan downgrade Moody’s terhadap peringkat kredit Irlandia.
Pada Senin 20 Desember, Moody’s Ratings bahkan menyatakan kemungkinan pihaknya akan menurunkan peringkat kredit beberapa
perbankan di Spanyol, kondisi mana semakin menurunkan minat investor pada euro.
 
• Euro melemah hingga level 1.2636 terhadap Swiss franc yang merupakan level terendah sejak mata uang tunggal Uni‐Eropa tersebut
diluncurkan pada 1999 silam, sementara kinerja Swiss franc justru ditopang maraknya aksi safe haven buying yang mendominasi
perdagangan akhir tahun dimana investor cenderung mengambil posisi aman. Euro anjlok 0.5% terhadap dollar AS ke level 1.3119 setelah
sempat anjlok kelevel 1.3096 yang merupakan level terendah sejak 02 Desember. Sementara itu dollar AS turun 02% terhadap yen kelevel
83.75 yen.
 
• Harga emas dunia menguat ditengah kembali naiknya minat investor terhadap aset berstatus safe haven terdorong berita dari ECB yang
mengeluarkan peringatan tentang kondisi keuangan kawasan Uni‐Eropa dan lembaga pemeringkat Moody's yang mengatakan kemungkinan
akan memangkas peringkat utang beberapa bank di Spanyol. Ketegangan di semenanjung Korea juga memberi dukungan pada kinerja emas
sehubungan latihan perang yang diselenggarakan pihak Korea Selatan di pulau yang menjadi sengketa dengan Korea Utara. Harga spot emas
<XAU=> naik 0,6% kelevel 1,384.10 USD per troy ounce.
 
• Harga minyak naik dalam dua sesi berturut‐turut, terangkat naiknya harga gasoline futures menjelang liburan dan tingginya permintaan yang
disebabkan oleh cuaca dingin, yang juga turut mendukung kenaikan harga heating oil futures. Volume perdagangan masih tipis dan
perdagangan diwarnai aksi choppy trading investor. Kontrak minyak mentah AS untuk Januari yang telah berakhir pada sesi Senin 20
Desember ini tidak berhasil menembus diatas level 90 USD per barel, setelah sebelumnya sempat mencapai level tertinggi 26‐bulan di 90,76
USD per barel pada tanggal 7 Desember silam. Investor cenderung mengesampingkan penguatan dollar AS terhadap mata uang utama dunia
lainnya ditengah berlanjutnya kekhawatiran pada kondisi utang zona euro. Minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Februari <CLG1> naik 77
sen menjadi 89,37 USD per barel. Salju dan suhu dingin yang ekstrim menyebabkan gangguan di seluruh Eropa utara selama 3‐hari terakhir,
cuaca buruk tersebut diperkirakan akan berlanjut hingga sepekan mendatang.
 
• Outlook (Selasa, 21/Des./2010): Bursa saham Asia diperkirakan akan dibuka menguat pada sesi Selasa 21 Desember, seiring tren penguatan
bursa saham global menjelang akhir tahun yang didukung penguatan harga saham‐saham logam dan sektor keuangan di bursa Wall Street.
“Ancaman” lembaga pemeringkat Moody’s untuk memangkas peringkat hutang beberapa perbankan di Spanyol diperkirakan masih akan
menekan performa euro pada sesi ini.