Gold bounces higher, euro loses strength

SINGAPORE | Thu Jan 13, 2011 10:46 pm EST
SINGAPURA (Reuters) - Emas rebound pada hari Jumat karena euro meskipun kehilangan kekuatan dari-perkiraan utang lelang-yang lebih baik oleh Spanyol dan Italia, sedangkan pembelian dari toko perhiasan dan investor, yang dikirim premi untuk batang emas tertinggi tahun ke-2, menawarkan dukungan tambahan.
 
Silver juga terpental setelah jatuh lebih dari 3 persen pada sesi sebelumnya, sementara platinum dan paladium diadakan di dekat tertinggi mereka multi-tahun pada prospek permintaan yang lebih dari investor dan sektor industri.
 
Spot gold rose $3.41 to $1,376.16 an ounce by 0312 GMT after trading in a choppy $23 range on Thursday. Bullion struck a lifetime high around $1,430 an ounce in December on fears the euro debt crisis would spread. 
"Kami telah melihat membeli fisik yang kuat di Asia. Itu masih berlangsung," kata Dick Poon, manajer logam mulia pada Heraeus di Hong Kong. "Saya pikir emas mengkonsolidasi sekarang saya masih bullish pada emas dan perak.."
 
US gold futures for February fell $12.2 to $1,374.8 an ounce to track weaker oil prices, but the decline was ignored by players in the cash market. 
Gold bars were offered at premiums of $3 an ounce to spot London prices in Hong Kong, and at $1.5 in Singapore.
Wang Tao, Reuters analis pasar komoditas dan technicals energi, kata emas diperkirakan turun menjadi $ 1,352.30 per ounce, sebagai rebound dari tingkat ini bisa selesai, dan target bullish pada $ 1.407 yang dibatalkan.
 
Euro mengambil nafas pada hari Jumat, tetapi masih di jalur untuk posting performa terbaik mingguan terhadap dolar dalam 20 bulan, sementara pasar ekuitas yang bersemangat dengan Jepang Nikkei mundur dari puncak 8 bulan. <MKTS/GLOB> <MKTS/GLOB>
 
Presiden Bank Sentral Eropa Jean-Claude Trichet baru panggilan bagi pemerintah zona euro untuk meningkatkan ukuran dan ruang lingkup € 440.000.000.000 mereka ($ 578.200.000.000) dana penyelamatan dan memperingatkan tekanan inflasi jangka pendek di kawasan euro. [nECBNEWS] [NECBNEWS]
Minyak mereda pada hari Jumat, tertekan oleh data AS mengecewakan ekonomi dan prospek OPEC akan meningkatkan output harus harga break diatas $ 100 per barel untuk jangka waktu yang panjang.
 
Dealer Fisik mencatat pembelian dari toko perhiasan di Cina menjelang Tahun Baru Imlek di bulan Februari, di mana sebagian besar pulang ke rumah Cina untuk liburan dan permintaan meningkat perhiasan. Meskipun permintaan dari China dan India konsumen juga atas, emas berjuang untuk meninjau kembali tingkat $ 1.400.
  "Saya pikir semacam likuidasi pada ETF memiliki sedikit dampak pada emas Tapi bargain hunting mendukung harga meskipun beberapa kekecewaan bahwa harga tidak bisa menembus $ 1,400.," Kata seorang dealer di Hong Kong.
 
Dana terbesar di dunia yang diperdagangkan di bursa emas yang didukung, SPDR Gold Trust, mengatakan kepemilikan sahamnya jatuh ke 1,265.093 ton oleh Jan 13 dari 1,271.467 ton pada 11 Jan.
Tapi logam konsultasi GFMS Ltd mengatakan pada hari Kamis emas rally ke rekor tertinggi di atas $ 1.600 per ons akhir tahun ini atau awal 2012 sebagai permintaan bahan bakar kekhawatiran safe haven investasi.
 
Sektor resmi, yang meliputi bank sentral dan otoritas moneter, mengayunkan ke pembelian bersih tahun lalu untuk pertama kalinya sejak tahun 1988, sebagai tambahan membeli di pasar negara berkembang lebih dari diimbangi penjualan emas oleh bank sentral Eropa, GFMS mengatakan dalam ketat mengawasi Emas Survei 2010 Update.

Oil off on U.S. data but OPEC eyed as $100 in sight

NEW YORK | Thu Jan 13, 2011 5:40 pm EST  
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Minyak tergelincir pada hari Kamis karena pasar ditimbang mengecewakan AS data klaim pengangguran dan prospek OPEC akan meningkatkan output harus harga break diatas $ 100 per barel untuk jangka waktu yang panjang.

Sebuah delegasi dari negara anggota OPEC Teluk mengatakan OPEC hanya akan mengadakan pertemuan darurat jika minyak semburan ke angka tiga dan tinggal di sana, meskipun anggota kelompok Teluk informal dapat menambah pasokan jika diperlukan.
 
Minyak mentah Brent rally mendekati $ 99 per barel awal pekan ini, meningkatkan kekhawatiran itu bisa pecah $ terakhir 100, yang mendorong biaya bahan bakar dan mengancam pemulihan ekonomi yang rapuh.
Klaim pengangguran AS mingguan manfaat awal menunjukkan peningkatan terbesar mereka dalam enam bulan, menunjukkan bahwa, bahkan dengan tanda-tanda baru dari perbaikan ekonomi, pasar tenaga kerja cat gambaran suram untuk permintaan.
 
Data membantu menyeret turun pasar saham, bahkan sebagai Ketua Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke mengatakan dia berharap tentang perbaikan terbaru dalam pandangan, mengatakan ia sekarang berharap ekonomi untuk memperluas antara 3 persen dan 4 persen tahun ini.
 
In London, ICE Brent crude for February berakhir turun 46 sen pada $ 91,40, jatuh sebagai Wall Street melemah pada laporan pekerjaan, setelah mencapai sesi tinggi $ 92,37.
Dalam perdagangan pasca-penyelesaian akhir, minyak mentah Brent naik 36 sen menjadi $ 98,48 per barel sementara minyak mentah AS anjlok US $ 1,00 sampai $ 90,86.
 
Penyebaran antara dua nilai pelebaran sebanyak, 7,66 $ premi terluas kelas London telah diadakan untuk minyak AS sejak Februari 2009. Premi Bahwa melebar minggu ini di tengah kekhawatiran tentang pasokan minyak mentah terikat Brent, patokan untuk Eropa, Timur Tengah, dan Afrika crudes.
Trading volatile, setelah permukiman mencapai tertinggi 27 bulan di kedua sisi Atlantik pada hari Rabu, menjelang berakhirnya Februari Brent berakhir dan pelepasan kebanyakan indikator ekonomi AS dijadwalkan pada hari Jumat.

"Kompleks (energi) menyerah pada beberapa kelemahan dalam ekuitas hari ini dan angka pengangguran yang berhubungan kurang baik saat mengangkat bahu dari dukungan lain pop kuat di euro," kata Jim Ritterbusch, presiden di Ritterbusch & Associates, di Galena, Illinois.
 
EYES ON OPEC EYES ON OPEC
   
Sebuah delegasi dari negara anggota OPEC Teluk mengatakan OPEC hanya akan mengadakan pertemuan darurat jika minyak naik diatas $ 100 dan tinggal di sana, meskipun anggota kelompok Teluk informal dapat menambah pasokan jika diperlukan.
 
"OPEC hanya akan memiliki rapat luar biasa jika harga minyak melebihi $ 100 dan tinggal di sana. Kami tidak ingin pasar panik," kata delegasi Reuters.
Prospek minyak melanggar $ 100 per barrel, yang terakhir menyentuh pada Oktober 2008 setelah Lehman Brothers runtuh, telah meningkatkan lonceng alarm tentang dampak biaya bahan bakar pada pemulihan ekonomi.
 
Top eksportir Arab Saudi telah mengatakan itu nikmat harga minyak antara $ 70 sampai $ 80 per barel, tetapi atas minyak Libya resmi pada hari Kamis mengatakan, harga minyak di $ 100 per barrel tidak akan merugikan ekonomi dunia dan tidak perlu bagi OPEC untuk mengadakan pertemuan darurat atau menambah pasokan.

DATA EKONOMI
 
Laporan ekonomi menunjukkan kesenjangan perdagangan AS menyempit pada bulan November dan harga produsen meningkat lebih dari yang diharapkan pada bulan Desember.
Ketua Federal Reserve AS Ben Bernanke mengatakan ekonomi bangsa harus tumbuh sekitar 3 persen sampai 4 persen tahun ini, klip sehat daripada 2010, tapi tidak cukup untuk menurunkan pengangguran sebanyak pembuat kebijakan inginkan.
 
Kekhawatiran pasokan dari awal pekan ini berkurang karena produksi minyak Alaska mulai bangkit sebagai pipa minyak mentah negara dilanjutkan arus minyak pada 400.000 bpd, tingkat normal sekitar dua-pertiga, setelah itu ditutup karena adanya kebocoran pada hari Sabtu.
Jalur ini akan menutup kembali selama 36 jam pada akhir pekan sehingga bypass bisa dibangun untuk memungkinkan arus untuk meningkatkan ke tingkat normal.
 

Headline News 13.01.11

US & GLOBAL
 
• Bursa saham AS ditutup menguat menyusul mengendurnya kekhawatiran pada kondisi utang Eropa yang meningkatkan minat pada aset beresiko, kenaikan
saham‐saham di Wall Street juga ditopang menguatnya saham perbankan dan saham yang terkait dengan komoditas. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 83,48 poin
atau 0,72% ke 11,755.36, S&P500 <. SPX> naik 11,47 poin atau 0,90% ke 1,285.95 sementara Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 20,50 poin atau 0,75% ke 2,737.33.
 
• Euro kembali menguat terhadap dollar AS meskipun kenaikan tersebut diperkirakan hanya akan berlangsung semenrara karena penjualan obligasi Portugal
gagal untuk menuntaskan kekhawatiran atas prospek pendanaan dari negara‐negara kawasan Uni‐Eropa. Lelang obligasi Portugal berjalan cukup sukses,
namun para analis mengatakan hasil lelang tersebut belum mengubah pandangan bahwa pemerintah Lisbon akan terus mengalami kesulitan pendanaan dan
akan beralih untuk mendapatkan bailout dari Uni‐Eropa dan IMF.
 
• Euro <EUR=> tercatat menguat 1,2% kelevel 1,3133 setelah sempat menguat hingga 1,3138. Terhadap yen, euro naik 0,9% ke 108,93 yen <EURJPY=>.
Sementara itu dollar AS turun 0,3% ke 82,96 <JPY=> yen. Euro juga tercatat menguat 0.45% ke level 1.2689 terhadap Swiss franc setelah anggota SNB Thomas
Jordan menyatakan terdapat prospek perlambatan ekonomi Swiss pada 2011, meskipun pihaknya memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi akan berada
dikisaran 1,5%.
 
• Harga emas dunia naik kelevel tertinggi dalam kurun 1‐pekan terakhir menyusul anjloknya dollar AS terhadap euro. Ekspektasi akan tercapainya kesepakatan
untuk sebuah paket komprehensif penanganan krisis Uni‐Eropa dalam dua bulan mendatang meredam permintaan pada aset‐aset safe haven. Harga spot
emas <XAU=> naik 0,5% ke 1,386.95 USD per troy ounce, setelah sempat mencapai harga tertinggi di 1,388.90 USD per troy ounce.
 
• Sementara itu harga minyak dunia melonjak akibat penghentian produksi, anjloknya cadangan minyak AS dan naiknya permintaan yang mendorong penguatan
minyak mentah Brent mendekati 100 USD per barel untuk pertama kalinya sejak 2008. Harga minyak Brent London <LCOc1>, yang merupakan patokan untuk
harga minyak Eropa, Timur Tengah, dan Afrika, naik 51 sen menjadi 98,12 USD per barel, setelah sempat menyentuh level 98,85 USD per barel. Harga minyak
Brent crude merupakan patokan yang kuat untuk minyak mentah AS <CLc1> yang tercatat menguat 75 sen kelevel tertinggi dalam 27‐bulan terakhir di 91,86
USD per barel.
 
• Outlook (Kamis, 13/Jan./2011): Bursa saham Asia diperkirakan akan dibuka menguat seiring suksesnya lelang obligasi Portugal yang sedikit meredakan
kekhawatiran tentang krisis utang zona euro. Kenaikan saham‐saham komoditas juga akan mendukung kinerja saham global.
 
• Sentimen terhadap mata uang tunggal zona euro masih cukup suram di tengah bertahannya kekhawatiran bahwa masalah pembiayaan utang Portugal dan
Spanyol dapat menyebar ke negara lain dimana Belgia menjadi kandidat selanjutnya ditengah ketidakstabilan politik negara tersebut. Perhatian pelaku pasar
saat ini beralih ke lelang obligasi Spanyol dan Italia yang akan berlangsung pada sesi Kamis 13 Januari ini. Para analis memperkirakan penjualan obligasi kedua
negara tersebut tidak akan mengalami rintangan berarti, meskipun diperkirakan akan dijual dengan harga yang tinggi. Pelaku pasar juga akan mengamati
sidang ECB untuk melihat upaya lanjutan dari bank sentral guna membantu mengurangi tekanan terhadap obligasi Uni‐Eropa.

Fed says economy, jobs outlook improving

WASHINGTON | Wed Jan 12, 2011 3:02pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy strengthened as the year drew to a close, according to a report from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday that cited rising employment levels across the country.

The Fed's Beige Book report, based on anecdotal reports collected from the business contacts of the central bank's regional branches, painted an increasingly bright, if cautious, picture.
 While real estate markets, at the heart of the deepest recession in generations, remained predictably weak, manufacturing contacts sounded more upbeat.

The Fed reported better conditions across all 12 of its districts, though banking and financial services showed results that varied by region.
"Economic activity continued to expand moderately from November through December," the central bank said in a statement.

The findings were consistent with a recent pick-up in U.S. economic data that has prompted some economists to beef up their forecasts for growth in the first half of 2011.
The U.S. economy grew 2.6 percent in the third quarter, a level considered too meek to put a significant dent in the nation's 9.4 percent jobless rate.

Against that backdrop, the Fed announced in November it would buy an additional $600 billion in bonds over an eight month period in order to support the recovery by keeping long-term borrowing costs low.
Market interest rates have risen sharply since then despite the purchases, though policymakers have argued they might have risen even further without Fed action.
The improvement in conditions in the Beige Book report strengthens the case, made both by some top Fed officials and outside economists, that the latest round of bond-buying might not be necessary.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, however, has argued that the economy is running so far beneath its full potential that it continues to need help from the monetary authorities.
The central bank has cited both weak employment conditions and very low inflation readings to justify its actions.

Headline News 12.01.11

AS & GLOBAL :
 
. Saham]saham energi menyokong kinerja Dow Jones dan S&P500 untuk mengakhiri pelemahan beruntun dalam 3]sesi terakhir, meskipun investor
mengalami kekhawatiran akan ancaman kenaikan bahan bakar yang potensial melemahkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Laporan earning dari perusahaanperusahaan
kecil termasuk Lennar homebuilder dan Sears Holdings, turut mendukung kinerja bursa namun volume perdagangan masih rendah dan
memunculkan pertanyaan tentang keberlanjutan rally bursa untuk jangka panjang. Alcoa Inc membukukan laba kuartalan yang melampaui ekspektasi
meskipun saham produsen aluminium tersebut turun 1% pada sesi Selasa 11 Januari. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 34,43 poin atau 0,30% ke
11,671.88, indeks S&P500 <. SPX> naik 4,73 poin atau 0,37% ke 1,274.48 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 9,03 poin atau 0,33% ke 2,716.83.
 
. Pekan depan menteri]menteri keuangan Eropa dijadwalkan akan membahas peningkatan kapasitas pinjaman efektif untuk dana penyelamatan
keuangan Uni]Eropa, menyusul penolakan bailout dari pemerintah Portugal. Sementara itu Jepang, mengikuti jejak Cina, berjanji akan membeli
obligasi zona euro bulan ini untuk membantu stabil mata uang tunggal eropa tersebut.
 
. Euro berhasil menguat dari pelemahan tajamnya yang telah berlangsung dalam 5]sesi terakhir, seiring adanya spekulasi pejabat zona euro dapat
meningkatkan kapasitas kredit efektif dana penyelamatan blok dan adanya peningkatan pembelian obligasi Portugal oleh Bank Sentral Eropa ] ECB.
Euro naik mendekati level 1,30 pada akhir sesi New York meskipun analis memperingatkan euro masih potensial tren penurunan akibat besarnya
kekhawatiran atas jadwal penerbitan obligasi oleh negara]negara Eropa pekan ini. Euro tercatat naik 0,2% ke 1,2980 <EUR=>. Kinerja euro akan
mendapat sebuah tes penting pada sesi Rabu 12 Januari dimana Portugal dijadwalkan akan melelang obligasi senilai 1,25 miliar euro yang akan
memberikan sinyal apakah negara tersebut akan mampu menggalang dana di pasar obligasi atau akan terpaksa mendapatkan bailout.
 
. Dollar AS naik 0,6% ke 83,22 yen <JPY=> seiring optimisme akan ekonomi AS akhir]akhir ini yang membantu mengangkat imbal hasil obligasi.
Sementara itu Swiss franc berlanjut melemah terhadap dollar AS akibat meningkatnya kekhawatiran tentang dampak dari penguatan nilai tukar franc
pada perekonomian domestik. Dollar tercatat naik 0.57% terhadap Swiss franc kelevel tertinggi dalam satu bulan terakhir di 0,9785 franc.
 
. Harga emas dunia naik mengiringi kenaikan harga minyak dunia seiring semakin besarnya kekhawatiran atas krisis utang Uni]Eropa yang menaikkan
minat beli pada aset safe haven. Harga spot emas <XAU=> naik 0,6% ke 1,382.90 USD per troy ounce. Harga perak <XAG=> naik 1,7% ke 29,54 USD per
ounce. Penurunan harga emas akhir]akhir ini telah mendorong permintaan fisik di India dan Cina, dimana konsumen mulai memborong emas
menjelang Tahun Baru Imlek awal Februari, mendorong naiknya premi untuk emas batangan ke level tertinggi dalam dua tahun terakhir.
 
. Harga minyak AS melonjak 2% diatas 91.33 USD per barel menyusul ditutupnya dua ladang minyak di Laut Utara memicu kekhawatiran akan pasokan
minyak setelah adanya penutupan pipa utama minyak mentah di Alaska. Dukungan bagi kinerja minyak lebih lanjut berasal dari perkiraan naiknya
heating oil dari the Northeast AS yang merupakan pasar heating oil terbesar dunia yang mulai mempersiapkan adanya badai salju. Harga minyak
mentah AS untuk pengiriman Februari <CLc1> naik 1,86 USD di 91,11 USD per barel.
 
. Outlook (Rabu, 12/Jan./2011): Bursa saham Asia kemungkinan akan dibuka positif ditopang menguatnya bursa saham global ditopang laporan earning
yang solid dan didukung juga oleh komentar positif dari brokerage, sementara investor masih menunggu hasil dari penerbitan obligasi di zona euro.
Sinyal bahwa Eropa masih berjuang untuk mengatasi masalah fiskal diperkirakan masih akan mendasari minat investor pada emas sebagai alternatif
investasi, setelah logam mulia tersebut sempat anjlok pekan lalu dalam performa mingguan terburuk sejak Mei seiring peningkatan data ekonomi AS.

Gold rises on euro debt worries, oil gains

NEW YORK | Tue Jan 11, 2011 4:28pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gold prices rose for a second day on Tuesday on a rally in oil and as deepening worries over the severity of the European debt crisis prompted safe-haven buying.

Signs that Europe is still struggling to overcome its fiscal problems highlighted gold's appeal as an alternative investment, after the metal notched its biggest weekly decline since May last week on improving U.S. economic data.

European finance ministers will discuss increasing the effective lending capacity of their financial rescue fund next week, as Portugal defied pressure to seek a bailout. Japan, following in the footsteps of China, promised to buy euro zone bonds this month to help steady the single currency.

"Even though Japan is getting in the fray, the euro really hasn't been able to manage a recovery. It highlights the fact that there is a crisis and there will be further problems," said Bill O'Neill, managing partner at commodities firm LOGIC Advisors.
O'Neill also cited oil's surge as a factor behind the rise in gold. U.S. crude futures rallied 2 percent to settle above $91 a barrel on output disruptions and colder weather. Gold is often viewed as a hedge against inflation.

Spot gold rose 0.6 percent to $1,382.90 by 3:12 p.m. EST, while U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled up $10.20 at $1,384.30. The metal is about 4 percent off December's record high of $1,430.95.
Silver rose for a second session, up 1.7 percent on the day at $29.54 an ounce.
COMEX gold futures volume rose more than 5 percent above its 30-day average, but silver was about 25 percent lower, preliminary Reuters data showed.

Gold's recent price decline has spurred demand in India and China, a top bullion consumer ahead of the Lunar New Year in early February, pushing premiums for gold bars to their highest in two years.
China's inflation raced to a 28-month high of 5.1 percent in November, and it is unclear whether policy steps the government is taking will calm prices, benefiting gold.

After several weeks of almost unrelenting outflows, some of the larger exchange-traded funds backed by physical gold have also seen a pick-up in investor demand, despite the decline in the euro, which would normally erode appetite for gold.
The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings rose for the first time since mid-December to 1,272.682 tonnes by January 10.

EURO ZONE DEBT CRISIS

Gold rose as the euro climbed on talk of increased Portuguese bond buying by the European Central Bank, but it struggled to hold session peaks given nervousness over a heavy schedule of debt issuance by southern European countries this week.

Concerns in the fixed-income markets over the likelihood of an international bailout for Portugal, which would be the third in a year after the rescues of Greece and Ireland, have undermined investor confidence and given gold a boost.

The focus this week is on whether Lisbon will be able to raise funds in the debt market on Wednesday, or be forced to turn to the European Union and International Monetary Fund for financial aid.
Gold, which rose 30 percent last year, has been a key beneficiary of investor concern over the fallout from the euro zone debt crisis.

"Where you have governments that are overindebted and need to get themselves out of that problem ... they can try to inflate their way out of difficulty, which is where you'd want to be holding gold instead, or can go down a route of fiscal retrenchment," Natixis commodities analyst Nic Brown said.
Improved U.S. auto sales and ongoing supply worries lifted platinum group metals, which are largely consumed in autocatalysts.

Platinum rose for a fourth consecutive day, up 1.6 percent at $1,765.50 an ounce, while palladium gained 4 percent, up for a second day, at $780.

Headline News 11.01.11

AS & GLOBAL :
 
• Bursa saham AS berhasil menutup pelemahannya diawal sesi seiring volume perdagangan yang cukup sepi, rebound ditopang oleh kuatnya prospek
earning korporasi yang sedikit meredakan kekhawatiran mengenai kondisi hutang Portugal. Investor beranggapan tren naik bursa masih bertahan,
meskipun penurunan indeks S&P dalam 3‐sesi berturut‐turut mulai menandakan momentum tersebut mulai tertahan. Analis memperkirakan
optimisme akan earning akan menjadi pemicu berlanjutnya rebound bursa. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> turun 37,31 poin atau 0,32% ke 11,637.45,
S&P500 <SPX.> anjlok 1,75 0,14% ke 1,269.75 sementara Nasdaq <. IXIC> justru naik 4,63 poin atau 0,17% ke 2,707.80.
 
• Euro berhasil bangkit dari penurunan kelevel terendah dalam kurun 4‐bulan terakhir terhadap dolar, meskipun kenaikan tersebut diperkirakan tidak
akan bertahan lama seiring kekhawatiran pada kondisi hutang Uni‐Eropa dan ekspektasi bailout Portugal. Euro sempat anjlok dibawah level 1,2900
terhadap dollar AS <EUR=> untuk pertama kalinya sejak September. Namun kemudian euro tercatat menguat 0.4% terhadap dollar AS ke level 1.2952,
penguatan mana sebagian ditopang kenaikan euro terhadap Swiss Franc akibat adanya spekulasi bahwa pemerintah Swiss akan melakukan intervensi
guna menahan penguatan nilai kurs franc. Portugal, Italia dan Spanyol dijadwalkan akan merilis obligasinya pekan ini, dan investor masih khawatir
apakah semua negara‐negara dengan tingkat hutang yang besar tersebut akan mampu mengumpulkan dana secara berkelanjutan pada 2011 ini.
 
• Terhadap Swiss franc, euro naik 0,3% ke 1,2530 franc <EURCHF=>. Swiss franc melemah setelah dilaporkan bahwa pemerintah Swiss akan bertemu
para pemimpin bisnis dan serikat perdagangan pekan depan guna membahas implikasi dari penguatan Swiss franc.Terhadap yen, dollar AS turun 0,5%
kelevel 82,72 yen <JPY=EBS>.
 
• Harga emas dunia menguat awal pekan ini seiring mengerucutnya kekhawatiran atas utang Portugal yang mendorong permintaan safe haven. Naiknya
permintaan emas dalam bentuk fisik dari India ‐ menyusul anjlok tajamnya harga emas pekan lalu ‐ juga turut menyokong rebound. Emas
membukukan performa mingguan terbesar dalam kurun lebih dari 7‐bulan terakhir pada pekan lalu menyusul penguatan dollar AS seiring data
ekonomi AS yang dirilis lebih baik dari perkiraan, yang meningkatkan ekspektasi diberlakukannya kembali kebijakan moneter ketat di Amerika Serikat.
Harga spot emas <XAU=> ditutup menguat 0.4% kelevel 1.375 USD per troy ounce.
 
• Harga minyak AS naik lebih dari 1% setelah kebocoran jaringan pipa Trans Alaska Pipeline yang memaksa produsen minyak tersebut untuk memangkas
5% output dari rata‐rata produksi harian sebesar 630.000 barrel. Sementara itu harga heating oil melonjak setelah adanya perkiraan dari pemerintah
tentang peningkatan permintaan untuk heating oil pekan ini. Harga minyak mentah AS untuk penguiriman Februari <CLc1> naik 1,22 USD, atau 1,39%
dilevel 89,25 USD per barel.
 
• Outlook (Selasa, 11/Jan./2011): Bursa saham Asia diperkirakan akan dibuka beragam seiring harapan membaiknya rilis earning korporasi cukup
membantu mengatasi kekhawatiran pada krisis hutang Portugal yang diperkirakan memerlukan bailout dari IMF dan Uni‐Eropa.
 
• Aksi ambil untung pelaku pasar pasca penurunan tajam euro sejak beberapa sesi terakhir antara lain terbantu ekspektasi bahwa ECB membeli obligasi
Uni‐Eropa yang menyokong kinerja euro pada awal sesi Asia. Namun demikian kekhawatiran sebenarnya pada kondisi hutang kawasan Uni‐Eropa,
terlebih pada kemungkinan Portugal harus mendapatkan bailout dan kemungkinan menularnya krisis ke Spanyol dan Italia masih akan membebani
kinerja euro terhadap mata uang utama dunia lainnya.

Euro jumps after Japan finmin says to buy euro bonds

TOKYO | Mon Jan 10, 2011 9:08pm EST
 

TOKYO (Reuters) - The euro jumped higher after Japan's finance minister, Yoshihiko Noda, said the nation will buy about 20 percent of bonds the euro zone plans to jointly issue later this month.
The euro rose as far as $1.2992 on trading platform EBS from around $1.2925. It now stands at $1.2961.
Against the yen, the euro rose as high as 107.86 yen.

Euro zone debt fears dent world stocks; euro recovers

NEW YORK | Mon Jan 10, 2011 5:23pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - World stocks fell on Monday on fears Portugal may be the next euro-zone member forced to seek a bailout, and the euro was seen remaining under pressure even as it managed to recover after hitting a four-month low against the dollar.

Prices of U.S. Treasury debt and gold rose as investors sought safety on a resurgence in worries about European debt ahead of key bond auctions by Portugal, Italy and Spain this week.
The euro's rebound was partially fueled by gains against the Swiss franc, on speculation the Swiss government may act to rein in currency gains. Talk of further bond purchases by the European Central Bank also took some pressure off the market.

Stocks fell in the United States, Europe and most emerging markets as the fears about European debt levels overshadowed news of multibillion-dollar mergers and acquisitions. Asian stocks were also poised to open lower, with front-month Nikkei 225 futures traded in Chicago falling 25 points to 10,480.
"We see a further escalation in the European debt crisis, and a substantially weaker euro," said Stephen Jen, managing director of macroeconomics and currencies at BlueGold Capital Management LLP in London.
"There is no silver bullet because the underlying problems are 'knotted.'"
The euro fell as low as $1.2860 on trading platform EBS, a level not seen since mid-September, but recovered later to trade at $1.2949, up 0.26 percent on the day. It remains down more than 3 percent against the dollar so far this year.

European debt concerns rose again during the weekend after Reuters quoted a senior euro zone official as saying Germany and France were increasing pressure on Portugal to seek financial help from the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

The report sent yields on Portuguese 10-year debt soaring above 7 percent to their highest levels since the euro's creation in 1999. Portuguese yields recovered some ground later on Monday on talk of ECB bond buying, but remained above 7 percent, which is seen as an unsustainable cost of borrowing.
Portugal denied it was under pressure from Berlin and Paris to seek a bailout.
"It highlights the problems of whether the bailout fund will be sufficient to meet everybody's expectations," said Mark Bon, fund manager at Canada Life in London, said of the reports on Portugal.

WORLD STOCKS WEAKER

On equity markets, the debt worries offset expectations of strong corporate earnings at the beginning of the U.S. quarterly earnings season. Wall Street, however, managed to shake off most of the worries about Europe as the trading day progressed.

Merger and acquisition deals provided a strong positive note and helped cap losses. Duke Energy Corp (DUK.N) agreed to buy Progress Energy Inc for $13.7 billion in stock, while DuPont (PGN.N) planned to buy Danisco, a Danish food ingredient firm, for $5.8 billion.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI lost 37.31 points, or 0.32 percent, to 11,637.45, while The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX edged down 1.75 points, or 0.14 percent, to 1,269.75. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC gained 4.63 points, or 0.17 percent, to 2,707.80.
 World stocks declined 0.52 percent according to the benchmark MSCI All-Country World Index.
In Europe, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top shares closed down 0.97 percent, after rising 2 percent last week.

The heavyweight banking sector, which has exposure to sovereign debt in peripheral euro zone countries, was a major loser. BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA), Banco Santander(SAN.MC), Intesa SanPaolo (ISP.MI), Societe Generale (SOGN.PA) and UniCredit (CRDI.MI) fell between 2.7 and 5.7 percent. Greek banks .FTATBNK fell 6.6 percent.
Shares in Portugal's largest listed bank Millennium bcp (BCP.LS) fell 3.15 percent while other Portuguese banks also fell.

Euro zone credit concerns benefited government bonds, sending U.S. Treasury debt prices higher.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose 9/32 in price, sending its yield down to 3.289 percent. The 30-year bond gained 12/32 in price, with the yield at 4.4621 percent.
Gold prices rose 0.44 percent to $1,374.60 on a renewed safe-haven bid.
U.S. crude oil prices settled $1.22 higher, or 1.39 percent, to $89.25 a barrel, after a leak shut an Alaskan pipeline that carries 12 percent of U.S. crude output.

Headline News 10.01.11

AS & GLOBAL :
 
. Saham]saham di bursa AS jatuh pada Jumat akhir pekan lalu setelah putusan pengadilan dalam kasus penyitaan memicu aksi jual investor dari saham
perbankan, setelah sebelumnya laporan sektor ketenagakerjaan dirilis dibawah perkiraan. Meski demikian indeks S&P500 dan Dow Jones mencatat
penguatan beruntun dalam 6]pekan berturut. Pada sesi akhir pekan lalu indeks Dow Jones <DJI.> turun 22,55 poin atau 0,19% ke 11,674.76, S&P500 <.
SPX> melemah 2,35 poin atau 0,18% ke 1,271.50 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> turun 6,72 poin atau 0,25% ke 2,703.17. Dalam sepekan terakhir S&P500
mencatat kenaikan 1,1%, Dow Jones naik 0,8% dan Nasdaq naik 1,9%.
 
. Laporan dari Departemen Ketenagakerjaan AS memperlihatkan adanya kenaikan penambahan tenaga kerja diluar sektor pertanian sebesar 103.000,
dibawah perkiraan 175.000. Sementara sektor swasta memperlihatkan kenaikan sebesar 113.000 tenaga kerja. Data tersebut masih akan memberikan
dasar bagi The Fed untuk mempertahankan kebijakan program pembelian aset sebesar 600 miliar USD. Tingkat pengangguran mencapai penurunan
9,4%, prosentase terendah sejak Mei 2009 dan merupakan penurunan bulanan terbesar sejak April 1998.
 
. Belanja konsumen yang menguat, meningkatnya perdagangan dan aktifitas manufaktur telah menambah penguatan ekonomi AS, hal tersebut
mendasari pernyataan optimis Ben Bernanke saat tampil dihadapan anggota parlemen pada Jumat 07 Januari. Bernanke tidak memberikan sinyal jelas
pada arahan kebijakan moneter The Fed kedepan dan menambahkan bahwa penurunan tingkat pengangguran belum berjalan dalam akselerasi yang
signifikan.
 
. Tahun 2011 cukup berat bagi kinerja euro dengan prospek perjalanan sepekan kedepan yang juga masih suram untuk kinerja mata uang Uni]Eropa ini
dimana penjualan obligasi zona euro berpotensi akan kembali membebani performa euro. Euro tercatat melemah 3,3% terhadap dollar AS dalam
sepekan terakhir, merupakan level mingguan terburuk sejak pertengahan Agustus 2010. Dollar AS sempat melemah terhadap euro pasca laporan Non]
Farm Payrolls dirilis dibawah perkiraan, meskipun kemudian mendapat dukungan dari tingkat unemployment yang kembali mendukung kinerja dollar
AS. Dollar AS naik 2,2% terhadap yen dalam sepekan terakhir ke 83.01, mencatat penguatan mingguan terbesar sejak April 2010.
 
. Harga emas dunia melemah akhir pekan lalu menyusul rilis data sektor ketenagakerjaan AS yang gagal memicu kembalinya minat investor pada asetaset
safe haven seiring masih kuatnya proyeksi pemulihan ekonomi AS. Harga spot emas <XAU=> turun 0,1% kelevel 1,369.85 USD per troy ounce,
setelah menyentuh level terendah sejak 26 November 2010 di 1,352.30 USD per troy ounce.
 
. Harga minyak mentah AS merosot akhir pekan lalu dalam sesi perdagangan yang cukup volatile dimana penguatan nilai tukar dollar AS dan pelemahan
bursa saham menghapus penguatan minyak hingga 89,45 dollar pada awal sesi AS. Harga minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Februari <CLc1> turun
35 sen di 88,03 USD per barel. Pelemahan akhir pekan lalu hingga 87,25 USD merupakan level terendah sejak 17 Desember 2010, dan tercatat
melemah 3,7% dalam sepekan terakhir, presentase penurunan terbesar sejak November 2010 silam.
 
. Outlook (Senin ] Jumat, 10 ] 14/Jan./2011): Pekan ini akan dirilis sekitar 20]22 miliar euro obligasi oleh pemerintah Jerman, Belanda, Italia, Spanyol
dan Portugis. Penerbitan obligasi pemerintah Uni]Eropa tersebut akan mengungkapkan kemampuan pendanaan Portugis di pasar modal, dan akan
menjadi debut 2011 bagi Spanyol dan Italia di pasar obligasi. Tingkat imbal hasil yang ditawarkan pada penjualan obligasi pekan ini akan memainkan
peran penting pada kinerja euro. Dengan biaya pendanaan yang lebih tinggi akan berpotensi menambah tekanan pada mata uang Uni]Eropa tersebut
seiring pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lemah dan masih menguatnya kekhawatiran pada kemampuan beberapa negara untuk membayar hutang. Pelaku
pasar juga akan mencermati hasil sidang ECB dan BoE dalam pertengahan pekan ini.
 
. Di Amerika Serikat, dalam sepekan kedepan akan dirilis sejumlah indikator penting bagi ekonomi, dimana diantaranya data penjualan ritel pada Jumat
14 Januari. Optimisme pelaku pasar terhadap serangkaian data ekonomi yang positif diperkirakan masih akan mendukung sentimen bullish dollar AS
seperti yang terjadi dalam sepekan terakhir dimana momentum pemulihan ekonomi semakin menguat.

Gold steady on euro zone concerns

SINGAPORE | Sun Jan 9, 2011 7:54pm EST

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Gold held steady on Monday, supported by renewed worries about the euro zone's financial stability, but a stronger dollar weighed on sentiment, while holdings in the top exchange-traded fund continued to decline.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold gained $1.05 at $1,369.85 an ounce by 0041 GMT, after finishing the first week of 2011 with a 3.6 percent decline.
* U.S. gold futures was little changed at $1,370.3.
* U.S. employers hired fewer workers than expected in December and a surprisingly large number of people gave up searching for work, tempering the positive news of a big drop in the unemployment rate.
* The dollar index .DXY rose to its highest since Dec 1, as the euro plumbed four-month lows versus the greenback early in Asia after stops were triggered in thin trade as worries about Europe's debt crisis mounted.
* Pressure is growing on Portugal from Germany, France and other euro zone countries to seek financial help from the EU and IMF to stop the bloc's debt crisis from spreading, a senior euro zone source said on Sunday.
* Holdings in the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, continued to decline. It fell to a seven-month low of 1,271.164 tonnes by Jan 7.
* Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, fell to a one-month low of 10,839.69 tonnes.

PRICES

Precious metals prices 0041 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pct chg Turnover
Spot Gold 1369.85 1.05 +0.08 -3.49
Spot Silver 28.84 0.15 +0.52 -6.55
Spot Platinum 1737.00 6.00 +0.35 -1.73
Spot Palladium 756.50 8.00 +1.07 -5.38
TOCOM Gold 3668.00 -14.00 -0.38 -1.64 32096
TOCOM Platinum 4679.00 -6.00 -0.13 -0.36 2932
TOCOM Silver 77.20 -0.10 -0.13 -4.69 805
TOCOM Palladium 2028.00 -8.00 -0.39 -3.29 391
Euro/Dollar 1.2898
Dollar/Yen 82.95
TOCOM prices in yen per gram. Spot prices in $ per ounce.

Commodities show ties that bind

WASHINGTON | Sun Jan 9, 2011 8:04pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - If there was any doubt that the global economy remains tightly intertwined, rising commodity prices should put it to rest.

Both the U.S. unemployment rate and the amount of idle factory space are abnormally high, stark evidence that the economy is still well below its full potential.
But price pressures are building in commodities despite the ample U.S. economic slack, thanks in large part to demand from emerging markets. The Reuters Jefferies CRB index .CRB of commodities is up 28 percent since July.

The pressures are concentrated in food and energy, the two categories the Federal Reserve prefers to ignore when it examines current data to get a sense of future U.S. inflation trends. The central bank's reasoning is that those items are too volatile to provide a reliable guide.
That doesn't help businesses faced with the margin-bruising prospect of paying more for raw materials while customers expect discounts in a still-weak economy.

Figures this week are expected to show U.S. businesses absorbing the higher costs. Economists polled by Reuters think Thursday's producer price index will show a 0.8 percent gain, but consumer prices, due a day later, probably rose just 0.4 percent.
The gap looks even wider on a year-over-year basis, with PPI expected to show an increase of 3.8 percent while CPI is up just 1.3 percent.

Companies may not be willing to eat the higher costs forever, particularly with the economy showing some signs of picking up speed and consumer spending strengthening.
"My sense is manufacturers (will) try to be aggressive on pricing in the first half of the year," said Norbert Ore, chairman of the ISM manufacturing business survey committee, which produces a monthly poll on factory activity.
The latest ISM installment, released earlier in January, showed a big spike in prices paid for materials.

THANKS FOR SHARING

This is not the front edge of a U.S. inflationary storm. That would require a much stronger labor market capable of generating intense wage pressures.
But it does have Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's attention. He told lawmakers on Friday that the central bank was watching fuel prices in particular to ensure they don't put a strain on consumers' spending power.
"I think the main reason oil prices are up is the strength of emerging markets, the demand for energy from 

China and other fast-growing emerging market economies," Bernanke said.
Many of those emerging markets are having a very difficult time containing inflation -- and unlike the Fed they cannot overlook food and energy costs when setting policy.

Food tends to take up a larger share of household budgets in emerging markets than it does in the United States, so it often carries a bigger weight in consumer price indexes.
Barclays Capital economist Julian Callow said the surge in commodity prices was leading investors to question how much longer the world's central banks can keep interest rates ultra-low.

For the Fed, inflation is nowhere near levels that would spark tightening talk.
 "Currently we do not expect that the surge in commodity prices is sufficient to generate downside risks to our private consumption forecasts, though this will be a point to watch if it continues," Callow said.
Emerging markets are in a very different situation. China, India and a host of others have taken steps to try to keep prices in check and Callow expects more to come.

For Bernanke and his Fed cohorts, one concern is that emerging market pressures could eventually feed back into U.S. prices. Specifically, China's manufacturers must contend with not only rising commodity prices, but rising labor costs too.

Credit Suisse economists think China is nearing a point where its seemingly inexhaustible labor supply struggles to keep up with demand.
The one-child policy launched in the late 1970s thinned the pool of young workers, and factories are already finding they must offer huge wage increases to lure rural migrants.
"This is the beginning of the end of an era -- China as the anchor of global disinflation," Credit Suisse analyst Dong Tao wrote in a recent note to clients.

"The sharp turning of China's labor market will not only redefine China's own growth model, production, consumption and income distribution, but will also have a major impact on inflation, financial prices and the manufacturing outsourcing model for the rest of the world."

Headline News 07.01.11

AS & GLOBAL


. Bursa saham AS melemah tipis pada sesi Kamis 06 Januari tertekan turunnya penjualan ritel dan naik tajamnya dollar AS ditengah aksi wait and see investor menyambut data sektor ketenagakerjaan AS, Beberapa perusahaan ritel terbesar tidak berhasil mencapai penjualan sesuai estimasi pada Desember silam, berita tersebut kemudian membebani saham-saham ritel.Sub-indeks ritel S&P <.RLX> anjlok 1.6% Indeks Dow jones <DJI.> turun 26,65 poin atau 0,22% ke 11,697.24, S&P500 <.SPX> turun 2,71 poin atau 0,21% ke 1,273.85 dan Nasdaq <.IXIC> naik 7,69 poin atau 0,28% ke 2,709.89.

. Euro merosot ke level terendah dalam kurun waktu 5 pekan terakhir terhadap dollar AS, dan diperkirakan pelemahan tersebut masih akan berlanjut jika data sektor ketenagakerjaan AS dirilis lebih baik dari perkiraan. Optimisme atas data ekonomi AS telah mengangkatproyeksi secara luas pada ekonomi negara Paman Sam tersebut, sementara kondisi yang kontras justru terjadi di Eropa yang masih dibayangi kekhawatiran mengenai krisis utang kawaasan. Euro merosot setelah berhasil anjlok dibawah level support 1,30, pada akhir sesi New York, euro tercatat melemah 1% ke 1,3018 < EUR=>. Euro berada dibawah tekanan jual setelah yields spreads antara imbal hasil obligasi negara-negara kawasan Uni-Eropa dengan imbal hasil obligasi Jerman melebar.

. Klaim untuk fasilitas pengangguran di AS dalam sepekan terakhir mengalami kenaikan lebih dari perkiraan, meskipun pada rata-rata empat minggu terakhir mengalami pernurunan kelevel terendah dalam kurun lebih dari 2 tahunterakhir yang menunjukan bahwa pasar tenaga kerja juga membaik.

. Harga emas kembali anjlok dalam penurunan beruntun dalam 4-sesi berturut-turut menyusul penguatan dollar AS seiring menguatnya outlook ekonomi AS (yang menurutkan minat pada aset save-haven), meskipun akhirnya aksi technical buying berhasil membatasi pelemahan emas. harga spot emas <XAU=> turun 0.4% ke level 1,371.70 USD per troy ounce.

. Harga minyak dunia anjlok 2.4% anjlok hingga dibawah level 89 USD per barel terdesak penguatan nilai tukar dollar AS dan lemahnya pasar ekuitas yang menurunkan minat beli investor pada komoditas tersebut. Harga minyak mentah untuk kontrak pengiriman Februari <CLc1>ditutup melemah 1.92 USD dilevel 88.12 USD per barel.

. Outlook (Jumat,07/Jan./2011): 
Bursa saham Asia diuperkirakan akan dibuka beragam dengan minimnya dorongan kuat dari bursa Wall Street untuk berlanjutnya rally, meskipun khusus untuk pasar Jepang diperkirakan masih akan memperoleh manfat dari pelemahan nilai tukar yen terhadap dollar AS dan diharapkan akan mendukung kenaikan saham-saham eksportir Jepang. Dengan kenaikan tajam indeks S&P500 hingga 8% sejak awal desember silam, investor diperkirakan akan mencari dukungan bagi aksi ambil untung jika laporan sektor ketenagakerjaan dirilis dibawah perkiraan. Perkembangan sektor tenaga kerja di AS merupakan salah satu faktor kunci bagi pertimbangan kebijakan moneter The Fed dan apabila terjadi perbaikan yang cukup signifikan maka akan membuka kemungkinan bank sentral AS tersebut akan mengubah besaran ataupun cakupan dari program pembelian aset. para pengamat memperkirakan adanya pergeseran kebijakan The Fed mungkin akan menguntungkan dollar AS. Selain laporan sektor ketenagakerjaan AS, perlu  diamati pernyataan Chairman The Fed - Ben Bernanke mengenai prospek ekonomi AS di hadapan Komite Anggaran Senat setelah rilis laporan sektor ketenagakerjaan AS.

Gold falls on improved outlook; payrolls eyed

NEW YORK | Thu Jan 6, 2011 3:44pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gold fell for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday as the dollar rose on signs the U.S. economic outlook was improving, but technical buying lifted prices off their lows.

Strong economic reports this week including purchasing managers' indexes, new factory orders and upbeat private-sector jobs data have driven the dollar higher, diminishing gold's safe-haven appeal. The data raised expectations that Friday's key U.S. jobs data will beat forecasts.

"There is always the fear that once the rebound in the U.S. gets cemented and attracts higher interest rates, investors start shifting money out of gold and into equities," said Mitsubishi analyst Matthew Turner.
The S&P 500 .SPX stock index was on track for its sixth straight week of gains, up more than 1 percent so far this week even after Thursday's slight retreat.

Some investors unwound solid gains made on thin volume in gold and other precious metals over the holidays. The year-end rally saw silver hit a series of 30-year highs and palladium touch a near 10-year peak. Gold had come within $10 of a new all-time high on Monday.
Spot gold fell 0.4 percent to $1,371.70 an ounce at 3:28 p.m. (2028 GMT) U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled down $2 at $1,371.70.
Spot silver fell 0.7 percent to $29.05 an ounce.

Trading volume steadied after noticeably busier sessions earlier this week. U.S. gold futures volume was 5 percent above its 30-day average, but COMEX silver turnover was about 10 percent below the 30-day average.
 A larger-than-expected rise in weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday did little to alter investors' view that the economy is gaining traction, putting gold under pressure.

Oil prices lost $2 to $88 a barrel on the dollar strength, and industrial metals led by copper also fell 2 percent. The Reuters-Jefferies CRB .CRB index fell over 1 percent after the global commodities benchmark zigzagged in a volatile week.
Some analysts said underlying risk in the global economy should still boost gold to record highs despite better U.S. economic data.

"The debt problems in the euro zone's periphery haven't gone way... A tussle over the U.S. debt ceiling has the potential to further roil markets, lending support to gold in the next 2-3 months," said Peter Buchanan, senior economist at CIBC World Markets.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner stepped up pressure on Republican lawmakers to raise the nation's $14.3 trillion debt limit, warning failure to act would lead to an economic catastrophe.

TECHNICAL BUYING

On charts, gold cut early losses, bouncing off lows at around $1,362 an ounce, a key support level in line with a series of lows set in December, said Adam Hewison, president of MarketClub.com. 
Hewison said gold's bounce up from session lows signals that it has found support after falling this week.

"Every time when gold had gotten down to these levels, it's very close to making a reversal higher," he said.
Gold has risen toward its record $1,430,95 an ounce level three times since November but failed each time.
Investment demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds remained lackluster, with holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, New York's SPDR Gold Trust, dropping by nearly four tones on Wednesday to their lowest in early June.
Barclays Capital raised its 2011 forecast to $1,495 an ounce from a previous view of $1,445 in November.

"A clouded macro environment against a backdrop of low interest rates, growing uncertainty surrounding currency debasement and medium-term inflation fears as well as geopolitical tensions continue to stoke investor's appetite for a portfolio diversifier and a safe haven," Barcap's precious metals analyst Suki Cooper said in a note on Thursday.
Platinum inched up 0.1 percent to $1,727.74 an ounce and palladium dropped 1.8 percent to $759.47 after rising above $800 an ounce on Monday, its highest in nearly 10 years.
Prices at 3:30 p.m. EST (2030 GMT)

North Korea wants talks, U.S. wants end to provocations

SEOUL/WASHINGTON | Wed Jan 5, 2011 5:58pm EST

SEOUL/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - North Korea called on Wednesday for unconditional talks with the South but the United States suggested it must first stop provoking its neighbor, recommit to a 2005 nuclear pact and take responsibility for recent attacks.

It was uncertain whether the South would heed the North's call less than two months after the North Korean military on November 23 bombarded a South Korean island off disputed waters, killing four people.
The artillery fire, and the March 2010 sinking of a South Korean corvette blamed on the North despite its denials, have raised tensions in Asia and added pressure to try to resume talks with the North on curbing its nuclear programs.

"We demand unconditional talks between responsible authorities (of the South and the North)," the North's KCNA news agency quoted a statement, which, in an unusual step, was issued collectively by the North's government, the ruling Workers' Party of Korea and other organizations.
"We are prepared to meet with anyone regardless of the past if it is someone who is willing to go hand-on-hand with us to the future," it added.

It further proposed "discontinuing heaping slander and calumnies on each other and refraining from any act of provoking each other in order to create an atmosphere of improving inter-Korean ties."
While the North's statement seemed conciliatory, the United States made clear it first wanted Pyongyang to take action.
"We're open to dialogue but it's not just for North Korea to say 'OK, fine we'll come talk'," State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley told reporters after the U.S. and Chinese foreign ministers met in Washington.

"There are things that North Korea has to show both South Korea and the United States that it is prepared to have a sustained and constructive dialogue," Crowley said.
"Committing itself that there will be no further provocations certainly would be one step, demonstrating that it is prepared to move forward on its commitments under the 2005 joint statement would be another step," he added.

Under that pact, North Korea pledged to abandon its nuclear programs but the country's reclusive and often unpredictable leaders have made such commitments in the past in agreements that have subsequently unraveled.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi of China discussed the issue among others during a two-hour meeting to prepare for Chinese President Hu Jintao's January 19 state visit to Washington.
The United States has long sought China's help to persuade North Korea, which has twice conducted nuclear tests, to give up its nuclear programs.

The U.S. envoy for North Korea policy, Stephen Bosworth, met South Korean officials in Seoul before heading to China. Washington hopes talks on dismantling North Korea's nuclear work can start soon, though a breakthrough may prove elusive.

HIGH TENSION

Tension on the Korean peninsula rose to its highest levels since the 1950-53 Korean War after last year's sinking of a Southern ship killed 46 sailors, the exchange of artillery fire around the South's island, revelations of fresh nuclear activity by the North and threats of war.

President Barack Obama's national security adviser met China's foreign minister Tuesday in Washington and stressed the need to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons work and "avoid destabilizing behavior," the White House said.
In Seoul, U.S. envoy Bosworth met South Korea's foreign minister and nuclear negotiator. Bosworth does not appear to be in the region to unveil a U.S. proposal to get the North back to talks, but said he was collecting views from all sides.

Consultations are likely to focus on whether to restart the so-called six-party disarmament-for-aid talks involving the United States, the two Koreas, Japan, China and Russia.
Asked whether the United States was putting pressure on Seoul, Bosworth said: "Never."
He offered no further comments, saying he was due in China later Wednesday and would be in Japan Thursday.

Speaking after his meeting with Bosworth, South Korea's foreign minister sounded a cautious note about whether the six-party talks could restart, calling them a "useful negotiating tool" for disarming North Korea.
"But the right conditions, including North-South dialogue, are needed for there to be real progress," Kim Sung-Hwan was quoted as saying by the Yonhap news agency.
"It depends on the North's behavior whether it will choose path of conflict or peace."

Analysis: Facebook fund tests SEC resolve

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON | Wed Jan 5, 2011 8:36am EST

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The efforts by Facebook to raise as much as $1.5 billion outside of regulated markets is the latest test of the walls between private and public markets.

Goldman Sachs this week approached its best private wealth clients with a tantalizing offer: a special fund that will own shares in the fast-growing social networking giant. Goldman gets to offer clients a hot investment opportunity, while Facebook gets to remain a private company.

It is the latest in a growing trend: the blurring of public regulated markets and hands-off private markets.
That trend had drawn the attention of the Securities and Exchange Commission, which now must determine if it can build an enforcement case cracking down on investors and companies potentially skirting the rules on the books, or if it needs to clarify those rules itself.

"You have a lot of people who could probably create private markets that rival the public ones to deliver large amounts of capital to big companies without triggering all the burdens of being a public company," said Donald Langevoort, a professor of securities regulation at Georgetown University.

Small companies traditionally launch with the ultimate goal of completing an initial public offering and obtaining a listing on a national exchange. Yet reporting requirements and other regulatory hurdles have made that path less attractive, while new technology and alternative sources of capital make going public less critical.
That has contributed to a rise in online trading platforms that match buyers and sellers of privately held companies.

SecondMarket Inc, an online platform that hosts the trading of shares in Facebook and other private companies, on Monday told Reuters it received a request for information from the SEC on Friday. The SEC declined to comment on a potential probe into private market trading.

Under U.S. securities law, if a company's private shares are held by more than 500 holders of record, the company is required to register with the SEC and file public disclosure statements. But the rules generally define the term "record holder" as the name displayed on the company's stock record, and not the beneficial owner of the stock.

That means firms like Goldman Sachs can potentially skirt public disclosure rules through the use of a special investment vehicle. These funds can offer numerous investors the opportunity to buy stock, but the shares are all listed in the name of Goldman Sachs and only count as one shareholder of record.
Some securities lawyers say the SEC could choose to intervene if it concludes Facebook intends to skirt disclosure rules.

"It would not strike me as unusual for the SEC to be thinking about it and having to come to grips with it, because of the public notoriety around this transaction," said Stanley Keller, a lawyer at Edwards Angell Palmer & Dodge in Boston.

"When you combine this deal with the secondary market activity taking place, it makes it more problematic for Facebook avoiding crossing over the 500-holder threshold."
Google, another fast-growing Internet company, had also avoided an IPO until trading activity in employee options drew the scrutiny of the SEC. Google went public in 2004.
Several securities law experts note the Facebook fund, if unchallenged, could have major ramifications for other private companies and for Wall Street.
 But if companies are closely following all the rules for offering private shares, there may not be much the SEC can do on the enforcement side.

"Assuming they took the steps that were necessary to comply with existing rules and regulations, absent fraud or other extenuating circumstances, even though the SEC may not like it, there's probably not much they can do," said Brian Breheny, a former SEC deputy director of corporation finance who is now a partner at law firm Skadden Arps.

This is not the first time the SEC has been faced with the issue of whether it needs to update its registration rules for over-the-counter equities. In 2003, some investors urged the SEC to count beneficial owners amid concerns that companies were intentionally deregistering their securities to avoid disclosure rules.
Lawyer Stephen Nelson, who represented those investors, said he thinks many of those same issues are still relevant. He said the recent financial crisis underlined that regulators need as much information as possible to effectively police markets.

"When you have entities out there like Facebook, unregistered and not providing information to the SEC about their activities, the more of that kind of stuff that goes on, the dumber your regulators get and the worse their decision-making gets," he said. "And that scares me."

Headline News 05.01.11

AS & GLOBAL :
 
. Indeks S&P dan Nasdaq melemah tipis sementara Dow Jones berhasil menguat pasca rilis minutes sidang The Fed Desember lalu yang memperlihatkan
bahwa mayoritas anggota The Fed merasakan pemulihan ekonomi AS saat ini masih belum cukup untuk melakukan perubahan terhadap program
pembelian surat hutang The Fed senilai 600 miliar USD yang diluncurkan kuartal keempat 2010 silam. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> menguat 20,43 poin
atau 0,18% ke 11,691.18, S&P500 <SPX.> melemah 1,67 poin atau 0,13% ke 1,270.20 dan Nasdaq <IXIC.> turun 10,27 poin atau 0,38% ke 2,681.25.
 
. Investor meninggalkan saham]saham komoditas dan kekhawatiran pada rendahnya pendapatan supermarket AS turut menekan saham pengecer
makanan, faktor]faktor tersebut menekan kinerja indeks S&P dan Nasdaq.Namun demikian volume perdagangan meningkat seiring penataan kembali
portofolio para investor pada awal tahun 2011, dan para analis mengatakan daya tarik ekuitas masih tetap stabil.
 
. Dollar AS berhasil rebound terhadap euro dari level terendahnya dalam kurun 3]pekan terakhir menyusul rilis data ekonomi AS yang membaik.
Performa dollar AS diperkirakan masih akan mengkilap sebagai antisipasi dari penjualan obligasi dari zona euro secara masif. Data Factory Orders
untuk bulan November naik menjadi 0.7% yang merupakan kenaikan terbesar dalam kurun 8]bulan terakhir. Hingga akhir sesi New York, dollar AS
tercatat menguat 0,4 terhadap yen ke 82,00 dan naik 1,55% terhadap Swiss franc ke 0,9483. Sementara itu euro turun 0,4% terhadap dollar ke 1.3305
<EUR=> setelah sempat mencapai level tertinggi dalam kurun 3]pekan terakhir di 1,3435.
 
. Penurunan harga minyak mentah dunia turut menyokong performa dollar AS terhadap mata uang yang berkaitan erat dengan komoditas, diantaranya
dollar AS naik 0,5 ke 0,9985 terhadap Canadian dollar <CAD=>. Sementara itu, hasil miutes rapat The Fed pada sidang 14 Desember 2010
memperlihatkan bahwa anggota FOMC menganggap pemulihan ekonomi AS saat ini masih belum cukup untuk melakukan perubahan terhadap
program pembelian surat hutang The Fed senilai 600 miliar USD yang diluncurkan kuartal keempat 2010 silam. Terhadap yen, euro turun 0,06% ke
109,05 <EURJPY=R>.
 
. Dalam dua bulan kedepan, diperkirakan sekitar 150 hingga 200 miliar euro obligasi pemerintah negara]negara di kawasan Uni]Eropa akan dirilis,
dimana saat ini beberapa negara tersebut tengah menghadapi tingginya defisit anggaran dan naiknya biaya peminjaman. Portugis, Spanyol dan Italia
masing]masing menghadapi jadwal refinancing untuk 2011, dengan total obligasi di atas 500 miliar euro yang dijadwalkan akan diluncurkan pada
2011. Aussie dollar terpuruk akibat banjir parah di timur laut Australia yang diperkirakan akan menghambat produksi batubara, yang selama ini
menjadi penyumbang utama perekonomian. Aussie dollar turun 1,1% ke 1,0050 <AUD=D4>.
 
. Emas turun lebih dari 2% membukukan performa harian terburuk terhitung sejak awal November silam, menyusul membaiknya sinyal perbaikan
ekonomi AS yang mengurangi minat investor pada aset yang berstatus safe]haven. Sementara itu harga perak <XAG=> juga anjlok hingga 3% ke 29.78
USD per ounce sementara platinum merosot akibat aksi ambil untung pelaku pasar menyusul penguatan tajamnya akhir Desember silam. Harga spot
emas <XAU=> turun 2,4% menjadi 1,380.10 USD per troy ounce.
 
. Harga minyak turun lebih dari 2%, anjlok dibawah level 90 USD per barel, menyusul maraknya aksi ambil untung pelaku pasar terhadap komoditas
dunia menyusul penguatan tajamnya menjelang awal tahun 2011. Tekanan tambahan terhadap kinerja minyak juga berasal dari rebound dollar AS
terhadap mata uang utama dunia seiring membaiknya outlook ekonomi AS. Harga minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Februari <CLc1> turun 2,17
USD atau 2,37% ke 89,38 USD per barel.
 
. Outlook (Rabu, 05/Jan./2011): Bursa saham Asia diperkirakan akan dibuka melemah seiring aksi jual investor terhadap saham]saham komoditas pada
perdagangan di bursa Wall Street yang ditutup beragam. Kondisi tersebut diprediksi akan memicu aksi ambil untung terhadap saham]saham yang
menguat sepanjang akhir tahun 2010.