Markets end second week of gains after Mubarak resigns

NEW YORK | Fri Feb 11, 2011 4:27pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed out their second straight week of gains on Friday with a rally sparked after Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak resigned, easing tension around the region for now.

The S&P's five-month surge, which has taken it up almost 27 percent, has confounded those calling for a correction, but weak volume recently has been undercutting the unfailingly bullish direction in equities. Only 7.7 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, below last year's daily average of 8.47 billion.

The volume "suggests that maybe we're getting waning interest and a narrowing of the market," said James Gaul, portfolio manager at Boston Advisors LLC in Boston, which manages $1.7 billion.

Financials led on the back of the reduced uncertainty, rising throughout the trading day. Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) gained 1.9 percent to $14.77 and the KBW Banks index .BKX added 1.8 percent.
Market Vectors Egypt Index ETF (EGPT.P) rallied on record volume the news, climbing 4.5 percent to $18.60.

Two weeks of anti-government protests in Egypt sparked concerns the unrest could spread across the Middle East, contributing to volatility in markets and commodity prices worldwide.
"If things deteriorated in Egypt that would have created a risk for U.S. markets, especially if the Suez Canal was closed," Gaul said. "We've removed a short-term uncertainty and are seeing a positive reaction as a result."

He added that some uncertainty persisted. Vice President Omar Suleiman said a military council would run Egyptian affairs, but some have questioned the army's appetite for real democracy.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 43.97 points, or 0.36 percent, at 12,273.26. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 7.28 points, or 0.55 percent, at 1,329.15. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 18.99 points, or 0.68 percent, at 2,809.44.

For the week, the Dow is up 1.5 percent and both the S&P and Nasdaq are up 1.4 percent.
Kraft Foods Inc (KFT.N) limited gains in the Dow on Friday a day after it cut its 2011 profit growth forecast, sending the stock down 1.4 percent to $30.66, the biggest percentage decliner on the blue-chip index.

Shares of mortgage insurers rose after the Obama administration presented options for overhauling the wrecked U.S. housing finance system. It pledged to continue backing existing obligations of government-controlled mortgage finance sources Fannie Mae (FNMA.OB) and Freddie Mac (FMCC.OB).
PMI Group (PMI.N) shares rose 2.8 percent to $3.34 and Radian Group (RDN.N) gained 13.4 percent to $8.03.
A drought in Northern China has hit 7.7 million hectares of winter wheat growing areas, which, coupled with strong demand, is lifting some agricultural processor stocks, according to optionMonster co-founder Jon Najarian.

Agribusiness Bunge Ltd (BG.N) rose 3.4 percent to $71.36 and Archer-Daniels Midland Co (ADM.N) gained 2.2 percent to $36.22.

Commodities were a weak spot as crude oil prices declined in parallel with a falling-off of worries of possible oil supply problems in the Middle East. March crude futures dropped 1.5 percent.

Nokia (NOK1V.HE) (NOK.N), the world's largest cellphone maker, and Microsoft (MSFT.O) teamed up to build an iPhone challenger in an attempt to take on Google and Apple in the fast-growing smartphone market.

U.S.-listed shares of Nokia slumped 14 percent to $9.36. Dow component Microsoft was 0.9 percent lower at $27.25.

Almost three stocks rose for every one that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. More than two stocks rose for every decliner on the Nasdaq.

Headline News 11.02.11

US & GLOBAL 
• Indeks Nasdaq dan S&P500 akhirnya mampu mencatat penguatan setelah hampir sepanjang perdagangan Kamis kemarin bergerak di
wilayah negatif. Penguatan dipicu oleh meredanya eskalasi konflik di Mesir setelah presiden Hosni Mubarak mengatakan akan
mendelegasikan kekuasaannya pada wakil presiden, setelah sebelumnya dikabarkan akan mundur dari jabatannya. Sementara Dow Jones
ditutup melemah, mengakhiri kenaikannya selama 8 sesi berturut‐turut sebelumnya setelah pesimisme outlook dari perusahaan teknologi
Cisco System Inc.
 
• Prospek pemulihan ekonomi AS kembali berkembang setelah data weekly jobless claims AS turun ke level terendahnya selama 2,5 tahun –
sebuah indikasi mulai membaiknya pasar tenaga kerja.
 
• Sementara laporan earning di Eropa mengganggu sentimen positif di bursa global semalam, setelah laporan Credit Suisse gagal memenuhi
ekspektasi pasar. Masih di Eropa, sentimen pesimis juga berkembang setelah ada indikasi penanganan krisis kredit belum memadai.
 
• USD menguat didukung oleh perbaikan data tenaga kerja dan lemahnya euro. Selain itu, penguatan USD juga didukung oleh lemahnya
Swiss franc yang tertahan penguatannya sebagai mata uang safe‐haven setelah meredanya eskalasi konflik di Mesir. Indeks USD mendekati
level terkuatnya selama 1 minggu di sekitar 78.336. Sementara dollar ke level terkuatnya selama 1 bulan terhadap yen di 83.29.
 
• Outlook Jumat (11/Feb/2011): Bursa saham Asia nampaknya masih berpotensi tertekan dari kekhawatiran inflasi dan pengetatan
kebijakan moneter di emerging market. Sementara konsolidasi di bursa Wall Street juga dapat memberikan imbasnya. USD masih
berpotensi mengalami penguatan terhadap mata uang global menyusul perbaikan ekonomi yang terus terjadi, terlebih setelah salah satu
indikator tenaga kerja mencatat perbaikan signifikan semalam.

Rage in Egypt as Mubarak hangs on

CAIRO | Thu Feb 10, 2011 6:38pm EST

CAIRO (Reuters) - President Hosni Mubarak provoked rage on Egypt's streets on Thursday when he said he would hand over powers to his deputy but refused to step down after more than two weeks of protests demanding that he quit.

The armed forces high command had earlier issued "Communique No.1," declaring it was taking control of the nation in what some called a military coup seeking to end the turmoil under the 82-year-old former general, who has ruled for 30 years.

"Leave! Leave!" chanted hundreds of thousands who had gathered in Cairo's Tahrir Square in anticipation that a televised address would be the moment their demands were met.
Instead, the former air force commander portrayed himself as a patriot and war hero overseeing an orderly transition until an election in September -- in which he said last week he would not stand. Mubarak praised young people who have stunned the Arab world with unprecedented rallies. He offered constitutional change and a bigger role for Vice President Omar Suleiman.

Waving shoes in the air in a dramatic Arab show of contempt, the crowds in central Cairo chanted: "Down, down Hosni Mubarak."
 Asked if Mubarak would step down, an Egyptian official had told Reuters before the speech: "Most probably." But his information minister had said that would not be the case.
Joy turned to despair and then to anger.
Mohamed ElBaradei, a Nobel peace prize winner and retired U.N. diplomat who runs a liberal political movement, wrote on Twitter: "Egypt will explode. Army must save the country now."

DELEGATING POWERS

In a 20-minute address in which he said he would not bow to foreign pressure -- Washington has called on its old ally to make way quickly -- Mubarak said he would "delegate to the vice president of the republic the prerogatives of the president of the republic in a manner that is fixed by the constitution."
"It is not immediately clear what powers are being handed over," British Foreign Secretary William Hague told the BBC.
Suleiman, a 74-year-old former intelligence chief who was promoted just last month, is not widely popular with protesters who are seeking a complete break with the military-dominated system that has governed 

Egypt for the past six decades.
Suleiman appeared on state television to say there was a "road map" for transition and said he would oversee a "peaceful transition of power" in the Arab world's most populous nation.

Egypt's sprawling armed forces -- the world's 10th biggest and more than 468,000-strong -- have been at the heart of power since army officers overthrew the British-backed king in 1952.
The army, from politically plugged-in generals to poor conscripts and junior officers, is key to what happens next. "This poses a real dilemma for the army," said Rosemary Hollis at London's City University. "Are they going to allow the demonstrators to escalate their demonstrations so that they push the point that Mubarak has got to go, and that means the army definitely does split with Mubarak? he demonstrators are very disappointed and there will be violence."
  Robert Springborg of the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School called Mubarak and Suleiman's speeches "enormously provocative," made by "desperate men, willing to gamble the fate of the nation for their own personal interest."

"The speeches ... are not intended to bring an end to the crisis in a peaceful way but to inflame the situation so there is justification for the imposition of direct military rule. They are risking not only the coherence of the military but even indeed, and I use this term with advisement here, civil war."
The army quelled bread riots in Egypt in 1977 and halted a rampage by policemen over pay in 1986, but the momentous scale and consequences of the uprising that began on January 25 across the country dwarfs those events.

I FELT YOUR PAIN

"I have felt all the pain you felt," said Mubarak, who last week had already pledged not to run again in September. "I will not go back on my response to your voice and your call."
"Your demands are legitimate and just ... There is no shame in hearing your voices and opinions, but I refuse any and all dictations from abroad," he said.
"I have announced my commitment to peacefully hand over power after upcoming elections ... I will deliver Egypt and its people to safety," he said, once more, as he did last week, trying to paint himself as the father of the nation.

After the speech last week many Egyptians beyond the urban elites in the vanguard of recent protests had said they were satisfied by a promise of change in due course and have said they were more interested now in an end to economic disruption.
Tourists, a key source of income to the country of pyramids and Red Sea beaches, have deserted the hotels since last month.

But the anger on the streets of Cairo and Alexandria, hours ahead of a planned "Day of Martyrs" protest on Friday to commemorate the 300 or more killed by security forces since January 25 appeared ominous in an environment where the army has been on the streets for two weeks and on Thursday said it was in charge.
"We want a civilian state, civilian state, civilian state!" Doaa Abdelaal said on Twitter, an Internet service that many see as a vital catalyst for the protests in Tunisia and Egypt that have electrified oppressed populations across the Arab world.

"The army is worried that tomorrow on Friday the people will overpower state buildings and the army will not be able to fire back," Anees said. "The army now is pressuring Mubarak to resolve the situation."
It remained to be seen if his speech would satisfy the army.
"He doesn't seem to understand the magnitude of what is happening in Egypt. At this point I don't think it will suffice," said Alanoud al-Sharek at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "He has performed quite a sleight of hand. He has transferred authority to Omar Suleiman while somehow retaining his position as ruler."

WASHINGTON WARY OF TUMULT

News that Mubarak may hand over power, or be unseated, in this key American ally in the Middle East had provoked loud and emotional cheers in Cairo's Tahrir Square, the focal point for pro-democracy demonstrations. But some in the crowd were quick to protest they did not want military rule.

Washington's approach to the turmoil has been based from the start on Egypt's strategic importance -- as a rare Arab state no longer hostile to Israel, as the guardian of the Suez canal linking Europe and Asia and as a major force against militant Islam in the Middle East.
President Barack Obama, hailing history unfolding, said the United States would support an "orderly and genuine transition to democracy" -- Washington would be publicly uncomfortable if the army held on to power, and also does not want Islamist rule.

It had no immediate reaction to Mubarak's speech.
Washington pressured Mubarak to speed up the pace of reform but stopped short of demanding the resignation of the president of the country, which has a 1979 peace treaty with Israel and an army which receives about $1.3 billion in U.S. aid a year.
The protests that have shaken the Egyptian political system and the political landscape of the Middle East was partly inspired by the example of Tunisia, where street protesters toppled the president on January 14.

Headline News 10.02.11

US & GLOBAL
• Aksi ambil untung investor mendominasi perdagangan sesi Rabu 09 Februari pasca kenaikan tajam indeks dalam beberapa sesi terakhir, namun penguatan
saham Bank of America di akhir sesi berhasil mendorong Dow Jones ditutup di area positif dan mencatat penguatan beruntun dalam 8‐sesi terakhir. Pelaku
pasar optimistis bahwa laporan earning korporasi yang solid masih akan memberi inspirasi penguatan bursa lebih lanjut, meskipun volume perdagangan
yang cukup tipis akhir‐akhir ini mulai menimbulkan kekhawatiran bahwa minat beli investor sudah mulai berkurang.
 
• Raksasa teknologi Cisco Systems Inc pasca penutpan pasar melaporkan laporan keuangan yang lebih tinggi dari perkiraan, meskipun marjin keuntungannya
tidak terlalu menggembirakan. Sementara itu saham‐saham energi dan materal membebani kinerja indeks terdesak proyeksi akan berkurangnya permintaan
dari emerging countries terutama Cina dan India. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 6,74 poin atau 0,06% ke 1,239.89, indeks S&P500 <. SPX> turun 3,69 poin
atau 0,28% ke 1,320.88 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> turun 7,98 poin atau 0,29% ke 2,789.07.
 
• Dollar AS merosot terhadap euro menyusul turunnya imbal hasil obligasi AS yang memicu aksi jual investor terhadap dollar AS terdorong komentar Ketua
Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke bahwa program pembelian obligasi masih akan terus berlanjut. Dollar AS jatuh ke level terendah dalam 3‐hari terakhir
terhadap euro, namun stabil terhadap yen Jepang. Euro sempat menguat hingga level 1,3745 <EUR=> berhasil menembus diatas resistance 1.3740 (level
teknis, 61.8% fibonacci retracement dari pelemahan sejak November hingga Januari), untuk kemudian ditutup naik 0.7% ke level 1,3722.
 
• Investor berharap dengan data fundamental ekonomi akhir‐akhir ini yang positif, The Fed akan mulai berfikir untuk mengakhiri program pembelian obligasi
senilai 600 miliar USD lebih cepat dari yang diharapkan. Namun sebaliknya, Bernanke justru kembali menekankan kekhawatiran tentang angka
pengangguran yang tinggi, kondisi mana menguatkan ekspektasi bahwa quantitative easning The Fed masih akan berlangsung dan akan mendorong
pelemahan dollar AS. Dollar AS tercatat melemah 0,6% terhadap Swiss Franc <CHF=> ke 0,9574 franc dan juga turun 0,2% terhadap sterling ke 1,6102
<GBP=>.
 
• Emas ditutup stagnan dalam sesi perdagangan yang tipis didukung oleh pelemahan dollar AS terhadap mata uang utama dunia pasca komentar Ketua The
Fed ‐ Ben Bernanke. Harga spot emas <XAU=> turun 0,1% ke 1,362.04 USD per troy ounce.
 
• Sementara itu harga minyak mentah Brent crude London melonjak hampir 2% ke level 101.82 USD per barel ditopang pelemahan dollar AS dan masih
berlanjutnya kerusuhan di Mesir yang memicu kekhawatiran akan pasokan minyak di kawasan tersebut. Harga minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Maret
<CLH1> ditutup turun 23 sen ke level 86,71 USD per barel.

Gold flat but dollar drop, Bernanke view underpin

NEW YORK | Wed Feb 9, 2011 3:44pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gold was little changed on Wednesday as the market was underpinned by a dollar drop and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comment that he had no plans to scrap a massive bond-buying program, indicating interest rates will not rise any time soon.

In testimony to Congress, Bernanke suggested U.S. economic conditions were still too weak for the central bank to pull back on its vast monetary stimulus, despite a welcome drop in the jobless rate.

"I saw the positives to gold in Bernanke's comments. It seems that he's going to maintain the QE2 policy in place, and that's a bullish argument for commodities," said Tom Pawlicki, a precious metals and energy analyst at MF Global.
In November, the Fed launched a plan to buy $600 billion in government debt to keep borrowing costs low to stimulate the economy, a process known as quantitative easing.

Gold was trying to restore upward momentum after gaining more than 4 percent in the past 10 days, and a rise in Chinese interest rates for the second time in just over six weeks benefited gold's status as an inflation hedge.
Spot gold slipped 0.1 percent to $1,362.04 an ounce by 3:02 p.m. EST.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled up $1.40 at $1,365.50. Trading volume nearly halved its 30-day average, in line with weaker turnover in the past several sessions.

Bullion buying increased as the dollar faltered against the euro and as U.S. bond yields fell after a seven-session winning streak following a solid auction of 10-year Treasury notes, traders said.
A run of well-received economic data in January had taken the wind out of gold's sails and increased speculation that a correction was due, pushing prices back toward $1,300 an ounce.

"A lot of speculative (investors) that had gone in at the end of last year clearly saw growth being reignited and they got scared," said London & Capital portfolio manager Pau Morilla Giner. "They thought that gold would lose its appeal."
"But the long-term money in gold is still there," he said. "The realization is that economic news has been better than expected because the stimulus that has been applied has been extraordinary."

Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust, dipped to 1,228.56 tonnes on Tuesday from 1,228.864 tonnes the previous day, although the hefty outflows seen in January have apparently been staunched.
The SPDR fund experienced its second-biggest monthly outflow and the main silver ETF, the iShares Silver Trust, its biggest ever outflow last month, adding downward momentum to precious metal prices.

GOLD-SILVER RATIO DROPS

Silver eased 0.7 percent to $30.11 an ounce, after reaching its highest price since January 4 on Tuesday at $30.84 an ounce.

The gold-silver ratio -- the number of silver ounces needed to buy an ounce of gold -- fell to near a five-year low.
"Traders are trying to play the industrial uses of silver. As the economic data has improved, they bought silver over gold, thinking that they would benefit from both silver's precious and industrial aspects," MF Global's Pawlicki said.

However, increasing acceptance of physical gold bullion as collateral by banks and exchanges could provide support to the prices of the yellow metal, Pawlicki said.
Earlier this week, J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM.N) said it would accept physical gold as collateral with its counterparties as a growing number of clients look to use bullion as a hedge against inflation.
LCH.Clearnet also said it was hoping to accept gold as collateral later this year.

Platinum and palladium rose back to multi-year highs on Wednesday at $1,865 and $836.75 an ounce, respectively, boosted by firmer gold prices, a softer dollar, and expectations that demand from carmakers for the autocatalyst metals will improve.
Platinum slipped 0.2 percent to $1,850.99 an ounce, while palladium dropped 1.4 percent to $826.45.
Prices at 3:11 p.m. EST

LAST/ NET PCT YTD

CLOSE CHG CHG CHG US gold 1365.50 1.40 0.1% -3.9% US silver 30.276 0.005 0.0% -2.1% US platinum 1859.40 -2.50 -0.1% 4.6% US palladium 826.45 -12.00 -1.4% 2.9%
Gold 1362.06 -1.53 -0.1% -4.0% Silver 30.12 -0.19 -0.6% -2.4% Platinum 1851.24 -4.00 -0.2% 4.7% Palladium 823.72 -12.00 -1.4% 3.0%
Gold Fix 1365.00 2.50 0.2% -3.2% Silver Fix 30.22 80.00 2.7% -1.3% Platinum Fix 1858.00 5.00 0.3% 7.3% Palladium Fix 835.00 1.00 0.1% 5.6%

Headline News 09.02.11

US & GLOBAL 
• Bursa saham AS berhasil menguat dan tercatat sebagai kenaikan beruntun dalam 7‐sesi terakhir, meskipun volume perdagangan cukup rendah
yang menandakan minimnya kepercayaan investor bahwa rally tajam bursa dalam 5‐bulan terakhir ini akan terus berlanjut. Sementara itu laporan
penjualan McDonald's yang positif mendongkrak optimisme pada consumer spending yang kemudian turut menyokong penguatan Dow Jones
dalam sesi perdagangan dengan volume paling rendah sepanjang 2011, dimana total volume perdagangan sekitar 17% di bawah rata‐rata
perdagangan harian 2010 lalu. Pelemahan pada saham‐saham energi membatasi berlanjutnya kenaikan indeks S&P500 dan Nasdaq setelah
langkah Cina yang menaikkan suku bunga untuk kedua kalinya dalam 6‐pekan terakhir. Langkah tersebut menekan saham‐saham komoditas karena
mencuatkan kekhawatiran turunnya permintaan Cina pada komoditas dunia. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 71,52 poin atau 0,59% ke 12,233.15,
indeks S&P500 <. SPX> naik 5,52 poin atau 0,42% ke 1,324.57 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 13,06 poin atau 0,47% ke 2,797.05.
 
• Menguatnya minat investor terhadap mata uang beresiko berhasil mengangkat performa euro baik terhadap dollar AS maupun terhadap Swiss
franc. Kinerja euro juga terdongkrak maraknya aksi beli dari bank sentral negara‐negara kawasan Asia. Investor melepas Aussie dollar dan
mengalihkannya pada euro dan mata uang lain setelah langkah PBOC (People Bank of China) yang menaikkan suku bunga acuan menjadi 6.06% dan
suku bunga deposito menjadi 3%, kondisi mana meningkatkan kekhawatiran akan berkurangnya permintaan komoditas dari Cina. Aussie dollar
merupakan mata uang yang paling sensitif terhadap kebijakan suku bunga Cina menyusul posisi Australia sebagai pemasok terbesar komoditas
China.
 
• Aussie dollar sempat melemah terhadap dollar AS setelah pengumuman kenaikan suku bunga Cina, namun berhasil kembali menguat pada sesi
New York dan ditutup naik 0,2% ke level 1,0147. Rendahnya permintaan dalam penjualan obligasi AS berdampak negatif terhadap kinerja dollar.
Imbal hasil obligasi AS turun dalam 7‐sesi berturut‐turut setelah rendahnya minat investor pada lelang obligasi AS dengan tenor 3‐tahun senilai 32
miliar USD. Dollar AS melemah 0.1% terhadap basket of currencies ke 77,956 <DXY.> dan tercatat melemah 0,02% terhadap yen <JPY=> ke 82,33.
Sementara itu euro <EUR=> ditutup menguat 0,3% terhadap dollar AS ke 1,3632 sebagai dampak dari aksi ambil untung pelaku pasar dari
penguatan dollar AS dalam 4‐sesi terakhir. Terhadap Swiss franc <EURCHF=>, euro naik 1,1% ke level 1,3122 franc.
 
• Emas naik 1% pada sesi Selasa 09 Februari mencapai level tertinggi dalam kurun 3‐pekan terakhir seiring kekhawatiran akan tekanan inflasi dan
setelah emas berhasil menembus level teknis penting (moving average 100‐day). Sementara itu kenaikan suku bunga China untuk kedua kalinya
dalam 6‐pekan terakhir memberikan keuntungan bagi kinerja emas secara luas sebagai lindung nilai inflasi. Harga spot emas <XAU=> naik 0,9%
kelevel 1,362.90 USD per troy ounce.
 
• Harga minyak mentah Brent London naik mendekati 100 USD per barel pada Selasa seiring kekacauan politik di Mesir yang meningkatkan
kekhawatiran tentang potensi gangguan pasokan minyak kawasan tersebut, sedangkan harga minyak mentah AS berakhir melemah tipis dalam sesi
perdagangan yang volatile. Di London, harga ICE minyak mentah Brent untuk Maret <LCOc1> naik 67 sen ke level 99,92 USD per barel, setelah
mencapai level 100,42 USD. Harga minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Maret <CLc1> turun 54 sen ke 86,94 USD per barel.

Headline News 08.02.11

US & GLOBAL 
• Aktifitas merjer dan diversifikasi beberapa perusahaan berhasil mengangkat optimisme pelaku pasar dan mendorong kenaikan indeks Dow
Jones serta S&P ke level tertinggi dalam kurun 2‐1/2 tahun terakhir. Aksi beli investor semakin meningkat setelah indeks S&P500
menembus level teknikal 1.313. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 0,57% ke 12,161.55, indeks S&P500 <. SPX> naik 0,62% ke 1,319.05 dan
Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 0,53% ke 2,783.99.
 
• Euro ditutup stagnan terhadap dollar AS setelah mencatat level terendah dalam kurun 2‐pekan terakhir, namun analis berpendapat
tekanan pada euro masih cukup kuat dimana lemahnya data industrial orders Jerman meningkatkan keraguan pada proyeksi kenaikan suku
bunga ECB. Investor melakukan aksi ambil untung pada euro yang menguat sejak awal tahun ini, aksi mana dipicu rilis data industrial
orders Jerman untuk Desember yang dirilis jauh dibawah perkiraan. Pada akhir sesi New York, euro ditutup sedikit menguat 0.01% ke
1.3586. Terhadap yen, dollar AS naik tipis 0.2% ke 82,30 yen <JPY=>.
 
• Pelaku pasar saat ini mulai memandang serius prospek kenaikan suku bunga AS terutama pada 2012 mendatang, terutama terdorong
optimisme rilis data sektor ketenagakerjaan AS pekan lalu yang menunjukkan penurunan unemployment menjadi 9%. Hal tersebut
mendorong kenaikan benchmark imbal hasil obligasi AS dan menaikkan rentang antara 10‐year German bunds terhadap obligasi AS, yang
kemudian berimbas pada meningkatnya minat investor pada dollar AS.
 
• Harga emas dunia berhasil menguat terhadap dollar AS didukung oleh fokus investor pada tekanan inflasi, namun prospek ekonomi yang
lebih optimis dan ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga menahan laju kinerja logam mulia tersebut. Minat beli investor terhadap aset safehaven
termasuk emas mengalami tekanan seiring kenaikan bursa saham Wall Street ke level tertinggi sejak medio 2008, ditambah dengan
naiknya imbal hasil obligasi AS dan kekhawatiran pada level suku bunga rendah The Fed yang akan memicu tekanan inflasi. Harga spot
emas <XAU=> naik 0.2% ke 1,348.90 USD per troy ounce.
 
• Harga minyak dunia turun tajam pada Senin 07 februari karena kekhawatiran tentang gejolak politik Mesir akan mempengaruhi arus
pengiriman minyak di wilayah Timur‐Tengah. Harga minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Maret <CLc1> turun 1,55 USD ke 87,48 USD per
barel, setelah sempat mencatat level terendah di 87,18 USD per barel. Sementara itu harga minyak ICE London Brent untuk pengiriman
Maret <LCOc1> turun 58 sen ke 99,25 USD per barel.

Oil falls as Egypt and supply disruption fears ease

NEW YORK | Mon Feb 7, 2011 5:34pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices fell sharply on Monday as concerns about Egypt's political turmoil affecting oil flows in the region eased and investor focus returned to rising U.S. inventories and a tepid employment picture.

A new cabinet met in Egypt and the government and opponents demanding change held talks, easing investor fear that the unrest started in Tunisia could affect oil producer countries.
Crude oil inventories in the United States were expected to have risen last week, with gasoline stockpiles also building, according to a Reuters survey of analysts on Monday.<EIA/s>
U.S. crude oil for March delivery fell $1.55 to settle at $87.48 a barrel, with an intraday low of $87.18 struck in post-settlement trading.
In London, ICE Brent crude for March fell 58 cents to settle at $99.25 a barrel, off its $100.90 intraday peak.

Total U.S. crude trading volume was 640,000 lots, the lowest level since January 3, according to Reuters data.
Brent trading volume was above 596,000 lots, 37 percent above the 30-day average, Reuters data showed.
The U.S. crude price weakness helped Brent crude's price premium widen to more than $11 a barrel.
U.S. gasoline futures were supported by reports of refinery problems and their failure to push under technical support around the $2.42 a gallon level.
Heating oil losses were limited by a forecast for above-normal heating oil demand.

"Oil prices fell as Egypt did not continue to descend into chaos and the employment number was a disappointing jumbled mess," Phil Flynn, an analyst at PFGBest Research in Chicago, said in a note.
Despite optimism about economic recovery that has driven equities markets above late-summer 2008 levels, Friday's U.S. jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls grew by only 36,000 in January, well below forecasts, though the overall unemployment rate fell.

EGYPT IN FOCUS BUT FEARS EASE

President Hosni Mubarak's new cabinet held its first full meeting since political protests and unrest started nearly two weeks ago. Mubarak has refused calls to end his 30-year presidency before the September election.
There have been no reports of disruptions to Suez Canal shipping or flows on the Suez-Mediterranean pipeline that brings oil from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean.


OPEC has resisted the idea that the recent oil price jump should prompt the producer group to reconsider its production targets.
A member of Kuwait's Supreme Petroleum Council said prices could exceed $110 a barrel if political unrest in Egypt continues. [ID:nLDE71505M] Iran's oil minister said OPEC did not need an emergency meeting, even if oil rose to $120 a barrel. [ID:nMOS637004]

U.S. crude stocks rose 2.59 million barrels in the week to January 28, according to the most recent report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Inventories have risen to record levels at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate, the New York Mercantile Exchange's light sweet crude benchmark.

The high storage levels at Cushing have been encouraged by a strong contango condition, where front-month crude values are lower than prices for months farther out.
The deficit of U.S. front-month March crude to the April contract was above $3 a barrel and was as wide as $4.35 on Monday, according to Reuters data.
"We continue to view this curve weakness as symptomatic of a mounting supply at Cushing," Jim Ritterbusch, president at Ritterbusch & Associates in Galena, Illinois, said in a note.

Headline News 07.02.11

US & GLOBAL 
• Indeks saham S&P500 membukukan performa mingguan terbaik dalam 9‐pekan terakhir dan meningkatkan minat beli pada saham‐saham defensif
meskipun masih terdapat kekhawatiran pada perkembangan kondisi Mesir. Tanda‐tanda pemulihan ekonomi dan earning korporasi yang membaik telah
mendorong peforma bursa dalam sepekan terakhir meskipun volume perdagangan yang rendah dan performa saham‐saham unggulan yang kurang
menggembirakan sedikit meredakan minat beli investor. Data sektor ketenagakerjaan bulan Januari tidak berdampak signifikan pada pergerakan bursa
karena penciptaan lapangan kerja masih rendah namun disisi lain tingkat pengangguran turun tajam. Indeks saham Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 0,25% ke
12,092.15, S&P500 <. SPX> menguat 0,29% ke 1,310.87 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 0,56% ke 2,769.30. Dalam sepekan terakhir, Dow Jones naik 2,3%, S&P500
naik 2,7% dan Nasdaq naik 3,1%.
 
• Dollar AS berhasil menguat terhadap euro didukung oleh naiknya imbal hasil Treasury AS menyusul turunnya tingkat pengangguran AS yang semakin
mempercerah prospek pemulihan ekonomi AS. Euro turun kelevel terendah 1.3543 setelah sempat sempat mencapai level tertinggi 3‐bulan di 1,3862.
Hingga akhir sesi New York, euro tercatat turun 0,3% ke 1.3585 <EUR=>. Ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga ECB yang akan mendahului The Fed telah berhasil
mengangkat performa euro terhadap dollar AS hingga 8% sejak mencapai level terendah 4‐bulan di 1,29 pada 10 Januari silam. Namun demikian Presiden
ECB Jean‐Claude Trichet dengan pernyataannya yang menegaskan inflasi zona euro masih cukup terkendali mulai meredam potensi kenaikan suku bunga
dalam waktu dekat.
 
• Turunnya tingkat pengangguran AS pada Januari yang saat ini mencapai 9% dari total angkatan kerja AS jauh lebih rendah dari data Desember 9.4%,
mendorong kenaikan imbal hasil obligasi AS dan menguatkan prediksi investor akan kenaikan suku bunga AS setidaknya pada akhir tahun ini. Dollar AS
tercatat menguat 0,7% persen terhadap yen ke 82.18 <JPY=> dan menguat 1% terhadap Swiss franc ke 0,9545 franc <CHF=>. Namun demikian The Fed
masih tetap dovish dan Ben Bernanke pekan lalu menegaskan bahwa pemulihan ekonomi masih rentan dan memerlukan bantuan bank sentral.
 
• Harga emas turun pada sesi Jumat 04 Februari tertekan kenaikan kurs dollar AS dan minimnya minat beli investor pada aset safe haven menyusul rumor
kepastian mundurnya Presiden Mesir Hosni Mubarak. Harga spot emas <XAU=> turun 0,3% ke 1,348.59 USD per troy ounce. Dalam sepekan terakhir emas
mencatat kenaikan mingguan pertama dalam tahun 2011 ini dikuatkan oleh proyeksi kebijakan moneter The Fed yang masih cukup akomodatif dalam
beberapa waktu kedepan.
 
• Harga minyak dunia turun hampir 2% menyusul meningkatnya spekulasi kemunduran Presiden Hosni Mubarak yang memicu aksi ambil untug pelaku pasar.
Di London, minyak mentah ICE Brent untuk pengiriman Maret <LCOc1> turun 1,93 USD ke level 99,83 USD dari intraday high di 102,48 USD. Sementara
crude oil AS untuk pengiriman Maret <CLc1> turun 1,51 USD di 89,03 USD per barel.
 
• Ketegangan di kawasan Timur Tengah memunculkan ancaman terbaru bagi pemulihan ekonomi global yaitu meningkatnya tekanan inflasi. Harga minyak
Brent London sempat mencapai level 103.37 USD per barel yang merupakan level tertinggi sejak September 2008 dan harga bahan pangan dunia
berdasarkan FAO untuk Januari dilaporkan terus beranjak naik, kondisi mana diperburuk oleh badai salju ekstrim di Amerika dan banjir bandang di Australia.
JP Morgan memperkirakan jika harga minyak terus menguat hingga 10% maka kondisi tersebut akan memangkas GDP global sebesar 0.25%.
 
• Meningkatnya tekanan inflasi telah menjadi perhatian para pengambil keputusan dimana salah satunya adalah ECB yang memperkirakan tekanan inflasi
akan terus menguat setelah inflasi pada Januari naik ke 2.4% yang merupakan level tertinggi sejak 15‐bulan terakhir. Inggris juga menghadapi tekanan inflasi
paling tinggi sejak 8‐bulan terakhir ketika pada Desember tercatat naik 3.7% jauh melebihi target BoE yang hanya 2%.

Mubarak still in power as government and opposition talk

CAIRO | Sun Feb 6, 2011 8:15pm EST

CAIRO (Reuters) - President Hosni Mubarak held onto power Monday, defying a popular uprising against his autocratic rule, after the government opened talks with opposition groups to resolve Egypt's deepest crisis in 30 years.

The banned Muslim Brotherhood was among the groups who met with officials over the weekend, a sign of how much has already changed in 13 days that have rocked the Arab world and alarmed Western powers.
But opposition figures said their core demand that Mubarak must go immediately was not met. Some expressed concern that the government was playing for time in the hope that Mubarak would hang on until September, when his current term expires.

People in central Tahrir Square, focal point of an uprising that has seen hundreds of thousands of protesters take to the streets and clashes in which an estimated 300 people have been killed, said they would intensify their battle to oust him.

After nightfall Sunday, soldiers fired shots in the air to try to disperse the crowd. But the demonstrators, who on Saturday lay down in front of army tanks, remained and the troops abandoned the attempt.
The nation got back to work Sunday and banks reopened after a week-long crisis with lines of customers seeking access to their accounts.

Government ministers will hold their first full cabinet meeting Monday since Mubarak reshuffled his cabinet on January 28 in an attempt to mollify protesters enraged by years of corruption, economic hardship and political oppression.
But it was far from certain that the situation had been defused, despite appeals from longtime Mubarak backer the United States for an "orderly transition" to more democratic rule.

The presence at the talks of the banned Muslim Brotherhood, whose members have for years been repressed by Mubarak's feared security forces, was a significant development.
The demonstrators around Tahrir Square, largely young and secular, lack their clear organization and leadership.

The government said after the meeting, chaired by Vice President Omar Suleiman, they agreed to draft a road map for talks, indicating Mubarak would stay in power to oversee change.
It would also move to release jailed activists, guarantee press freedom and lift Egypt's emergency laws. A committee was set up to study constitutional issues.
But the opposition said the government failed to meet their demand for a complete overhaul of the political system.

Abdel Monem Aboul Fotouh, a senior Brotherhood figure, said the government statement represented "good intentions but does not include any solid changes."
Opposition activists reject any compromise which would see Mubarak hand over power to Suleiman but also serve out his term -- essentially relying on the old authoritarian system to pave the way to full civilian democracy and saving his face.

Nobel peace laureate Mohamed ElBaradei, who has emerged as a figurehead for the opposition coalition, criticized the fledgling negotiations and said he was not invited.
"It is all managed by the military and that is part of the problem." he told NBC television in the United States.
Gamal Soltan, editor of the al-Mesryoon newspaper, said the protesters would not leave before their demands were met.

"The problem is that the regime's hesitancy in taking serious steps will lead to complications and the increase of the popular demonstrations and possibly force an army intervention," he said.
However, former cabinet member Rachid Mohamed Rachid, said: "I believe the presence of Mubarak in the next phase of transition for the next few months is very critical."

ANTI-AMERICAN

The United States, which had bankrolled Mubarak and the army to the tune of $1.3 billion a year, was taken by surprise by the uprising against a ruler it saw as a bastion against Islamic militancy and a friend, albeit a reluctant one, of Israel.

It has called for gradual change and an orderly transition but has given confused messages about when exactly it thought Mubarak should step down.
In Washington Sunday, President Barack Obama said he believed Egypt was "not going to go back to what it was," and that the time for change was now. But in an interview with Fox News, he said only Mubarak knew what he was going to do.

Obama also said he believed the Muslim Brotherhood was only one faction in Egypt and that strains of their ideology were anti-American -- comments that could the anger the powerful Islamist group.
Thousands of people gathered in Tahrir Square again on Sunday but in the evening, soldiers fired shots in the air in a failed attempt to disperse the crowd.

"The coward is a coward and the brave is a brave and we will not leave the square," said Sameh Ali, a protester in his 20s.
But many Egyptians, even some who joined the demonstrations, say they are desperate for a return to normal life.

Shops have been closed, making it hard for people to stock up on basic goods. Some prices have risen.
The currency could face pressure Monday when banks outside the Middle East reopen after the weekend. The pound fell Sunday when trade resumed in Egypt but the drop was less sharp than many traders had expected as the central bank appeared to support the currency.
Another confidence test will be a central bank auction of 15 billion pounds ($2.6 billion) of short-term Treasury bills, postponed from last week. The stock market is still closed.

Market could rally on profits, technical

By Rodrigo Campos

NEW YORK | Sun Feb 6, 2011 11:05am EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - With earnings continuing to surprise on the upside and minimal technical resistance ahead, the bears may have to wait a bit longer for the much-anticipated end to the current stock rally.

The VIX, a gauge of investor anxiety, dropped last week despite unrest in the Middle East and oil prices are basically unchanged from two weeks ago. After posting its best week in the past nine last week, the S&P 500 has actually seen oversold levels tick lower.
"I expect the market to continue to rally despite the fact the economic news is sluggish in the jobs front," said Michael Yoshikami, chief investment strategist at YCMNet Advisors in Walnut Creek, California.

Government data showed Friday the U.S. economy created 36,000 jobs in January, far fewer than expected, but the unemployment rate fell to its lowest since April 2009. Economists agreed a recovery in the labor market was proceeding but not gaining speed.
Upbeat signals in the economy, coupled with a positive bias in the current earnings season, should continue to propel equities higher.

More than 70 percent of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings above estimates so far, according to Thomson Reuters data. Investors expect aggregate earnings rose 37 percent in the last quarter, the highest estimate for that period in more than 10 months.
"We believe corporate earnings will continue to recover as companies are more efficient and economies bounce back," Yoshikami said.

FEW HURDLES AHEAD

The energy, industrials and technology sectors are "trading well into overbought territory," according to a report from Bespoke Investment Group. But two recent weeks of declines are helping ease overall selling pressure, and the rally that started in September shows no signs of weakness.

"This market has been really eating up resistance levels as an every week event," said John Kosar, director of research at Asbury Research in Chicago. "We targeted 1,313 for (last) week as a near-term inflection point, and we haven't broken it yet."

The target coincides with the benchmark's highest level in August 2008. Chartists have mentioned the 1,360 area, the 76.4 retracement of the S&P's downhill move from late 2007 to March 2009, as one of the few technical hurdles the index faces before hitting 1,400.

The S&P has risen 25 percent since the start of September, which has led to a lack of confidence and calls for a pullback. Still, the CBOE volatility index .VIX fell 20.5 percent this week after a near 30 percent spike in the two previous weeks.
"There's a healthy degree of skepticism and many people are still calling for a correction," said Richard Ross, a global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson in New York.

THIN DATA CALENDAR

This week is slow in terms of economic indicators, with the preliminary reading of the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment as the highlight of the week.
  The reading is expected to tick up to 75 from last month's 74.2, according to a Reuters poll.

"There's enough of bits and pieces of data that if they are in the aggregate positive, they can create an (upturn) in the market," said Wasif Latif, vice president of equity investments at USAA Investment Management in San Antonio, Texas.
Some investors mentioned a spike in oil prices as one of the possible headwinds for the economic recovery, and the unrest in the Middle East as an important variable for equities.

As hundreds of thousands of Egyptians marched in Cairo on Friday to demand an immediate end to President Hosni Mubarak's rule, Brent oil settled below $100 a barrel for the first time in a week. U.S. crude for March delivery fell $1.51 to settle at $89.03 a barrel.

"If oil prices continue to rise and Middle East chaos spreads, you will potentially see a headwind develop for the global economy and that will affect the stock market," YCMNet's Yoshikami said. "Oil at $110 barrel becomes a significant headwind for the economy."

FED REASSURES INVESTORS
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke offered a moderately more optimistic assessment of the economy's prospects than in previous remarks, although he made clear the recovery still needs support from the Fed.

"As long as the Fed is indicating they will remain supportive and accommodating, that will continue to provide some degree of support to the market," said USAA's Latif. "Investors will see weakness in the market as a reason to buy."

Headline News 04.01.11

US & GLOBAL 
• Bursa saham AS kembali menguat pada sesi Kamis 03 Januari dimotori kenaikan saham‐saham ritel dan jaringan toserba yang meningkat menjelang rilis data sektor
ketenagakerjaan AS akhir pekan ini. Data menunjukkan chain‐stores sales mengalami kenaikan 4.8% selama Januari, seiring dengan peningkatan pada aktifitas sektor jasa dan
menurunnya angka jobless claims yang mendukung proyeksi pemulihan ekonomi. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 20,29 poin atau 0,17% ke 12,062.26, S&P500 <SPX.> naik 0,24% ke
1,307.10 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> menguat 0,16% ke 2,753.88.
 
• Euro melemah terhadap mata uang utama dunia lainnya setelah pernyataan Presiden ECB ‐ Jean‐Claude Trichet yang menurunkan ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga ECB dalam
waktu dekat. Berbicara setelah sidang ECB yang memutuskan untuk mempertahankan suku bunga pada level 1%, Trichet mengatakan ekspektasi inflasi "firmly anchored" dan
tekanan inflasi dalam jangka menengah hingga jangka panjang masih dapat terkendali. Komentar tersebut mengecewakan investor yang mengharapkan pernyataan yang lebih
hawkish berkaitan dengan data inflasi Uni‐Eropa yang akhir‐akhir ini menunjukkan peningkatan. Ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga ECB yang akan hadir lebih cepat daripada The Fed
telah mengangkat performa euro dalam beberapa pekan terakhir.
 
• Hingga akhir sesi New York, euro turun 1,2% ke 1,3633 <EUR=>, dan melemah 1,2% terhadap yen ke 111,22 yen <EURJPY=> dan merosot 0.99% terhadap sterling. Sementara itu
dollar AS stagnan terhadap yen ke 81,58 yen <JPY=>, sedangkan indeks dollar AS terhadap mata uang utama dunia lain yang naik 0,8% ke 77,773 <DXY.>.
 
• Ketua Federal Reserve ‐ Ben Bernanke mengatakan hari Kamis bahwa meskipun data ekonomi AS membaik, namun ekonomi tetap membutuhkan dukungan dari bank sentral.
Ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga oleh The Fed setidaknya pada akhir tahun ini dikalangan investor saat ini mengalami peningkatan, terutama sebagai upaya The Fed untuk menjaga
tekanan inflasi. Turut mendasari ekspektasi investor tersebut adalah data yang menunjukkan aktifitas sektor jasa AS pada Januari berekspansi dengan akselerasi tercepat sejak
Agustus 2005 sementara jobless claims turun tajam.
 
• Harga emas dunia naik lebih dari 1% ditopang maraknya pembelian institusi keuangan dan meningkatnya minat beli investor pada aset safe‐haven terdorong oleh berlanjutnya
kerusuhan di Mesir. Emas juga diuntungkan dari pernyataan terbaru oleh Bernanke, yang mengatakan bahwa pemulihan ekonomi AS masih membutuhkan bantuan dari Fed.
Harga spot emas <XAU=> naik 1,3% ke 1,353.55 USD per troy ounce.
 
• Sementara itu disisi lain harga minyak dunia justru anjlok tertekan penguatan nilai tukar dollar AS yang menurunkan minat investasi pada aset komoditas berdenominasi dollar.
Harga minyak mentah Brent untuk pengiriman Maret <LCOH1> turun 58 sen ke 101,76 USD per barel setelah sempat naik ke 103,37 USD per barel yang merupakan level tertinggi
sejak 26 September 2008. Sedangkan harga minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Maret <CLH1> turun 32 sen ke 90.54.
 
• Outlook (Jumat, 04 / Februari / 2011): Bursa saham Asia kemungkinan akan terdorong sentimen positif saham‐saham Wall Street yang menguat seiring cerahnya sinyal pemulihan
ekonomi AS yang menutupi kekhawatiran pada kondisi Mesir. Liburan Tahun Baru Imlek akan menurunkan volume perdagangan Asia seiring liburnya dengan pasar Cina, Hong
Kong, Singapura dan Korea Selatan.

Oil falls from 28-month high as dollar rises

NEW YORK | Thu Feb 3, 2011 1:50pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil fell on Thursday as a stronger dollar pulled crude off a 28-month high that was struck on concern unrest in Egypt could spread and disrupt oil shipments from the Middle East.

The euro fell broadly against the dollar after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet threw cold water on market expectations euro zone interest rates would rise anytime soon.
Brent crude fell 73 cents to $101.61 at 1:21 p.m. ET. Early in the session it rose to $103.37, the highest level since September 26, 2008.
U.S. crude for March, dropped 60 cents to $90.26 a barrel, sliding from a session high of $92.05.
Further support for the dollar came from positive U.S. economic data on jobs, services and nonfarm productivity.

"Crude prices are down on U.S. economic data and word from the European Central Bank that it will maintain low interest rates," said Chris Dillman, analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.
Prices were also weighed down by data from industry tracker Genscape showing crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point for the U.S. oil futures contract, hit a record high this week.
Rising inventories at Cushing have helped pressure U.S. crude prices to a steep $11 a barrel discount to Brent.

The International Energy Agency told the U.S. Congress on Thursday that stronger-than-expected demand from rebounding economies as well unrest in Arab countries helped pushed Brent prices above $100 a barrel.
Brent, the benchmark for crude sales in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia, earlier Thursday topped $103 a barrel as the unrest in Egypt escalated, with pro- and anti-government supporters locked in violent clashes.

The crisis has raised concerns of a disruption to supply of Middle East oil shipped through Egypt and of unrest spreading across the Middle East and North Africa, which combined produce more than a third of the world's oil.
In Yemen, tens of thousands squared off in peaceful protests for and against the government during an opposition-led "Day of Rage," a day after President Ali Abdullah Saleh offered to step down in 2013.

Headline News 03.02.11

US & GLOBAL 
• Bursa saham AS gagal melanjutkan penguatannya berkaitan dengan faktor teknikal yang kemudian menahan berlanjutnya penguatan bursa,
investor juga cenderung enggan mengambil posisi besar menyambut rilis data sektor ketenagakerjaan AS akhir pekan ini. Investor terus mengawasi
perkembangan politik di Mesir dan kekhawatiran akan menyebarnya ke negara‐negara lain di kawasan Timur‐Tengah dan Afrika telah menekan
laju bursa ekuitas global dalam beberapa sesi terakhir. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 0,02% ke 12,041.97, indeks S&P500 <SPX.> anjlok 0,27% ke
1,304.03 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> turun 0,04% ke 2,750.16.
 
• Euro yang sempat menembus level tertinggi dalam 2‐1/2‐bulan terakhir terhadap dollar AS, ditutup lebih rendah 0.2% ke 1.3804 menyusul naiknya
eskalasi kerusuhan di Mesir, meskipun proyeksi uptrend pada mata uang tunggal Uni‐Eropa tersebut masih bertahan seiring ekspektasi tingginya
inflasi kawasan. Euro sempat menguat ke level 1,3862 yang merupakan level tertinggi sejak November, sebelum beringsut melemah tertekan
pernyataan seorang pejabat pemerintah Jerman yang mengatakan, Berlin akan menentang kemungkinan pembelian obligasi negara‐negara yang
bermasalah oleh dana penyelamatan Uni‐Eropa. Badai musim dingin yang ekstrim di kawasan Midwest dan Northeast AS juga disebut sebagai
faktor yang menurunkan volume perdagangan, sementara itu bentrokan di Mesir antara pendukung dan penentang Presiden Hosni Mubarak
menaikkan ketidakpastian pada kondisi pasar. Dollar AS mencatat keuntungan tipis terhadap mata uang utama dunia setelah data ADP
Employment untuk Januari menunjukkan adanya pertambahan 187.000 tenaga kerja sektor swasta yang melebihi perkiraan analis sebelumnya.
Dollar AS tercatat menguat 0,3% ke 81,56 yen <JPY=> dan naik 0,5% terhadap Swiss franc ke 0,9398 franc <CHF=>.
 
• Harga emas turun 0,5% menyusul laporan ADP Employment yang menggembirakan dan kondisi politik Timur‐Tengah yang relatif stabil yang
kemudian mengalihkan minat investor pada aset beresiko tinggi dan sebaliknya menurunkan permintaan aset safe haven. Harga spot emas <XAU=>
turun 0,5% menjadi 1,334.40 USD per ounce.
 
• Harga minyak dunia naik pada Rabu 02 Februari karena bertahannya kekhawatiran bahwa pergolakan di Mesir bisa menyebar ke negara lain di
kawasan Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara, yang merupakan sumber dari 1/2 pasokan minyak mentah dunia. Harga minyak mentar AS untuk
pengiriman Maret <CLH1> ditutup menguat 9sen lebih tinggi ke 90,86 USD per barel, sementara harga minyak mentah ICE Brent untuk pengiriman
Maret <LCOH1> menguat 60 sen ke 102,34 USD per barel.

Brent crude approaches $103 as Egypt violence escalates

SINGAPORE | Wed Feb 2, 2011 9:59pm EST

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Brent crude approached $103 on Thursday after violent clashes in Egypt raised the prospect of further unrest across the Middle East, overshadowing the bearish effect of soaring gasoline inventories in top consumer the United States.

ICE Brent crude for March rose as much as 29 cents to $102.63 a barrel, the highest intraday price since September 29, 2008, and was up 22 cents at $102.56 at 0245 GMT. U.S. crude for March rose 37 cents to $91.23.

"The chance of contagion to a country that is systemically important for oil markets still remains relatively low, but it's the combination of that possibility and the importance of oil flows from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal that is building a premium" into prices, said Ben Westmore, commodities economist at National Australia Bank.
Backers of President Hosni Mubarak, throwing petrol bombs, wielding sticks and charging on camels and horses, attacked protesters in Cairo on Wednesday after the army told reformists demanding the president quit to go home.
The crisis has also alarmed western governments who have regarded Mubarak as a bulwark of stability in a volatile region, and has raised the prospect of unrest spreading across the Middle East and North Africa, which combined produce more than a third of the world's oil supplies.

The appearance of Mubarak supporters on Cairo's streets and their clashes with protesters -- after days of relatively calm demonstrations -- complicated U.S. calculations for an orderly transition of power in Egypt.
So far, the unrest in Egypt has not affected traffic on the Suez Canal or flows on the Suez-Mediterranean (SUMED) oil pipeline. Egypt controls both the canal and the duct, which together moved over 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and oil products in 2009, the latest data available.

"Once the tensions there begin to moderate, then you will have the market focusing again on fundamentals. We still have this abundant supply, so there is definitely more downside than upside," Westmore added.
U.S. crude inventories rose 2.59 million barrels to 343.16 million barrels in the week to January 28, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, while stockpiles of gasoline surged by 6.15 million barrels to 236.23 million barrels, the highest level since 1993. <EIA/S>
Inventories at the key Cushing, Oklahoma terminal rose 667,000 barrels to 38.33 million barrels, a record. Cushing in PADD 2 is the delivery point for the New York Mercantile Exchange's benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude futures.
The glut is depressing the price of WTI relative to Brent, with the front-month contract of the U.S. benchmark more than $11 below the European marker. The spread last week ballooned to a near-record $12.50 a barrel.

A massive winter storm, meanwhile, brought parts of the U.S. Midwest to a standstill and delivered another wintry blow to the Northeast, the biggest market for heating oil.
The U.S. March heating oil contract settled 2.37 cents higher at $2.7807 a gallon, the highest for a front-month heating contract since October 2008. It extended gains on Thursday to $2.7868 a gallon.
In other markets, world shares struggled to eke out more gains on Wednesday as wariness over escalating violence in Egypt and rising oil prices muted optimism over the latest signs of a sustained global economic recovery.

The price of copper, a key industrial metal, hit a fresh record high Thursday on expectations of strong global demand.
The euro fell from a 2-1/2-month high against the dollar on Wednesday as tensions in Egypt escalated, though the euro zone single currency's uptrend stayed intact given signs of rising inflation in that area.

 Traders also awaited data on U.S. non-farm payrolls for January due on Friday as an indication for the state of the economy and energy demand.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is likely to increase output by "more rather than less" in response to tensions in the Middle East, the chief economist of oil major BP (BP.L) told Reuters Insider Television on Wednesday.

Headline News 02.02.11

US & GLOBAL 
• Indeks saham Dow Jones dan S&P500 ditutup pada level tertinggi sejak 2008 silam dan berpeluang akan melanjutkan penguatan pada sesi berikutnya. Hal
tersebut didukung oleh rilis earning korporasi yang menggembirakan dan naiknya aktifitas manufaktur AS. Data menunjukkan aktifitas pabrik di Amerika
meningkat, serta rilis laporan keuangan perusahaan pengiriman UPS Inc yang cerah kemudian memberikan dukungan bagi pemulihan kegiatan ekonomi.
Sentimen positif tersebut mendukung minat beli investor menyusul meredanya kekhawatiran bahwa gejolak politik di Mesir akan menyebar ke kawasan
lain. Indeks Dow Jones ditutup di atas level psikologis penting 12.000 untuk pertama kalinya sejak Juni 2008. Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 1,25% ke 12,040.16,
S&P500 <SPX.> naik 1,67% ke 1,307.57 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> menguat 1,89% ke 2,751.19. S&P500 ditutup di atas level 1.300 untuk pertama kalinya sejak
Agustus 2008.
 
• Euro mencapai level tertinggi 2‐1/2‐bulan terhadap dollar AS diatas level 1.38 ditunjang oleh membaiknya data aktifitas manufaktur global, meskipun analis
mengatakan risk appetite bisa saja memudar jika kekhawatiran tentang kemampuan Eropa untuk mengelola krisis utang kawasan kembali mengerucut.
Pasar menganggap krisis di Mesir mulai dapat terkendali, kondisi mana mengurangi ketakutan investor bahwa krisis tersebut akan menyebar ke kawasan
Timur Tengah. Dollar AS anjlok terhadap mata uang utama dunia lainnya menyusul kembalinya minat investor pada aset beresiko, dollar tercatat melemah
terhadap yen kelevel terendah dalam 4‐pekan terakhir di 81,33 yen <JPY=> dan tercatat melemah 0,9% terhadap Swiss franc ke 0,9355 franc <CHF>.
 
• Aussie dollar naik 1,5% menjadi 1,0115 <AUD=D4> mendekati level tertinggi 4‐pekan, setelah pemangku kebijakan memberikan penilaian optimis pada
prospek ekonomi domestik dan global. Data yang menunjukkan aktifitas sektor manufaktur AS tumbuh dengan kecepatan tertinggi dalam hampir 7‐bulan
terakhir mendukung proyeksi bertahannya pemulihan ekonomi mendorong minat investor pada aset beresiko. Sementara itu data juga menunjukkan
turunnya tingkat pengangguran Jerman sementara aktivitas fabrikasi di Uni‐Eropa menguat. Survei manufaktur global juga menunjukkan prospek kenaikan
harga bahan baku, yang menurut para analis mungkin akan menambah dukungan bagi mata uang dari negara‐negara berkembang di Asia.
 
• Harga emas naik tajam pada sesi Selasa 01 Februari terdampak dari pelemahan dollar AS terhadap mata uang utama dunia yang kemudian meningkatkan
minat beli investor pada emas. Meskipun kemudian rally emas tertahan menyusul laporan aktifitas manufaktur AS yang menggembirakan dan surutnya
kekhawatiran pada kondisi politik di Mesir yang menurunkan minat investor pada aset safe‐haven. Harga spot emas <XAU=> naik 0,4% ke 1,337.21 USD per
ounce.
 
• Sementara itu harga minyak Brent naik ke level tertinggi dalam kurun 28‐bulan terakhir hingga 102.08 USD per barel menyusul gangguan di pelabuhan Mesir
yang dikhawatirkan berpotensi untuk mengganggu pasokan minyak di Timur Tengah. Pelemahan dollar AS terhadap mata uang utama dunia lainnya turut
mendukung kinerja minyak dan komoditas berdenominasi dollar lainnya, seperti tembaga, seiring kenaikan euro dan meningkatnya minat inevstor pada aset
beresiko. Di London, minyak mentah ICE Brent untuk bulan Maret <LCOc1> naik 73 sen ke 101,74 USD per barel. Sedangkan minyak mentah AS untuk
pengiriman Maret <CLc1> justru turun 1,42 USD di 90,77 USD per barel setelah melonjak lebih dari 6 USD dalam dua sesi sebelumnya.

Brent hits $102 on Egypt concern

By Robert Gibbons

NEW YORK | Tue Feb 1, 2011 5:33pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Brent oil prices rose to a 28-month peak on Tuesday, pushing above $102 a barrel as disruptions at Egyptian ports and Jordan's government shake up kept concerns about unrest in the region and the potential for oil supply interruptions in focus.

U.S. crude prices fell in choppy trading ahead of weekly reports expected to show domestic crude inventories rose last week and on the perception that the Brent market was more vulnerable to any immediate supply disruption.

The U.S. price slide left the benchmark West Texas Intermediate's discount to Brent at more than $10 a barrel. It reached a near record above $12 last week.
The dollar's weakness supported oil and other dollar-denominated commodities, like copper <MET/L>, as the euro hit a two-and-half month peak against the greenback on improving risk appetites after strong U.S. and euro zone manufacturing data. <USD/>

In London, ICE Brent crude for March rose 73 cents to settle at $101.74 a barrel, off its earlier $102.08 peak.
U.S. crude oil for March delivery fell $1.42 to settle at $90.77 a barrel after soaring more than $6 in the previous two sessions.
Shipping sources said there were major disruptions in Egypt's Alexandria and Damietta ports due to staff shortages and an absence of customs officials.

Egypt's two major oil transit points, the Suez canal and the SUMED pipeline, that brings oil from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, have not been affected by the protests, but the disruptions at the ports to the west highlighted the potential for problems.

At least 1 million Egyptians took to the Cairo streets to protest, with other mass anti-government rallies being staged in other key cities.

President Hosni Mubarak told the nation he would not leave Egypt although he would step down from the presidency at the end of his term, due to end when the country holds a presidential election in September.
King Abdullah of Jordan replaced his prime minister, after protests over food prices and poor living conditions, adding to concerns about the region.

"Geopolitics is at the forefront of the sentiment at the moment. And while we don't expect (oil) transit to be impacted, the news of the port disruptions brings up the what-if?," said Amrita Sen, oil analyst at Barclays.
The International Energy Agency said the oil market does not face any emergency, but called on OPEC to remain "flexible" in the event unrest affects supply.

OPEC has refrained from boosting production and sees no supply shortage. OPEC member Libya's top oil official told Reuters the group does not need to meet to discuss oil policy in February because the market is well supplied and $100-per-barrel prices are justified.

An OPEC delegate had said cartel ministers would hold talks on the sidelines of an energy conference in Saudi Arabia on February 22. Oil's price rally, along with the belief that economic recovery and demand growth are improving, have led to calls for OPEC to raise output.

U.S. CRUDE INVENTORIES ON THE RISE

U.S. crude oil stocks rose 3.8 million barrels last week, more than forecast, according to the industry group American Petroleum Institute's report released late on Tuesday. <API/S>
Gasoline stocks rose 3.9 million barrels, while distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, fell 1.1 million barrels, the API said.

U.S. crude prices extended losses trading after the API report, dropping to a fresh intraday low of $90.33 in post-settlement trading.
"The report was bearish. The more-than-expected build in crude oil and gasoline will be the hallmarks of the report," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York.

Ahead of the API report, a Reuters analyst survey forecast crude stocks to be up 2.7 million barrels, with distillate stocks slipping 700,000 barrels and gasoline inventories rising 1.9 million barrels.
U.S. crude prices have felt pressure from, "concerns about high U.S. domestic inventories and the likelihood of further builds in supplies," said Joe Possillico, broker at MF Global in New York.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's inventory report will follow on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EST.

Headline News 01.02.11

US & GLOBAL 
• Bursa saham AS naik pada awal pekan ini ditopang rilis earning yang positif dan kuatnya sinyal ekonomi AS, meskipun disisi lain harga minyak dunia
melonjak tajam seiring krisis geopolitik di Timur Tengah. Berdasarkan kabar terakhir, Wakil Presiden Mesir ‐ Omar Suleiman mengatakan bahwa Presiden
Hosni Mubarak telah memintanya untuk memulai dialog dengan semua kekuatan politik, sementara angkatan bersenjata Mesir berjanji untuk tidak
melakukan represi pada demonstrasi damai. Berita tersebut turut menenangkan pasar setelah bursa saham sempat mengalami penurunan terbesar dalam
hampir 6‐bulan terakhir pada sesi Jumat 28 Januari. Redanya kekhawatiran pada kondisi Mesir membuat investor kembali berfokus pada data fundamental
ekonomi AS dimana personal spending menguat ditambah earning positif dari Exxon Mobil Corp yang mengangkat saham perusahaan tersebut naik lebih
dari 2%. Indeks Dow Jones <.DJI> naik 0,58% ke 11,891.93, S&P500 <SPX.> naik 0,77% ke 1,286.12, sementara Nasdaq <.IXIC> naik atau 0,49% ke 2,700.08.
 
• Departemen Perdagangan AS melaporkan naiknya consumer spending masyarakat pada Desember lalu yang mencapai kenaikan beruntun dalam 6‐bulan
terakhir, sementara aktivitas bisnis di kawasan Midwest AS tumbuh lebih dari yang diharapkan pada bulan Januari. Data‐data tersebut mengangkat
optimisme menjelang laporan sektor ketenagakerjaan AS pada hari Jumat 04 Februari mendatang dimana diharapkan akan ada penambahan tenaga kerja
sebanyak 145.000 pada bulan Januari.
 
• Euro melanjutkan penguatannya terhadap dollar AS dan potensial mencetak penguatan beruntun dalam 2‐bulan berturut menyusul naik tajamnya inflasi
Uni‐Eropa yang semakin menaikkan ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga yang lebih cepat daripada Amerika Serikat. Hal tersebut membantu mengangkat
performa euro yang sempat anjlok akhir pekan lalu setelah kerusuhan di Mesir menaikkan harga minyak dunia dan memicu permintaan pada aset safe
haven seperti dollar AS dan Swiss franc. Rumor berkembang bahwa performa euro didukung tingginya pembelian dari bank‐bank sentral asal Asia dan Timur
Tengah.
 
• Euro sempat menguat hingga 1,3740 <EUR=> dan hingga akhir sesi New York tercatat menguat 0,6% ke 1,3692. Sementara itu sterling <GBP=> naik 1 persen
ke 1,6012 terdongkrak penguatan euro. Euro juga tercatat menguat terhadap Swiss franc <EURCHF=> dan yen <EURJPY=>. Dollar AS turun 0,1% ke 82,05 yen
<JPY=>.
 
• Harga emas anjlok pada awal pekan ini, mencetak penurunan bulanan pertama sejak 6‐bulan terakhir tertekan positifnya data ekonomi AS yang ditambah
dengan memudarnya kekhawatiran tentang krisis utang zona euro yang kemudian meredam penguatan pada emas. Namun demikian, prospek
menyebarnya kerusuhan di Mesir ke negara Timur Tengah lainnya diperkirakan masih akan meningkatkan minat investor pada aset safe haven dalam waktu
dekat. Harga spot emas <XAU=> turun 0,6% menjadi 1,330.65 USD per troy ounce, setelah mencapai titik terendah di 1,322.90 USD per troy ounce.
 
• Harga minyak mentah Brent menembus level 100 USD per barel untuk pertama kalinya sejak 2008, melonjak lebih dari 1% menyusul kerusuhan di Mesir dan
meningkatnya ekspektasi permintaan minyak dunia. Pejabat dari OPEC mengatakan belum ada kekurangan pasokan minyak di pasar dan tidak perlu
meningkatkan produksi sekarang. Di London, minyak mentah ICE Brent untuk pengiriman Maret <LCOc1> naik 1,59 USD ke 101,01 USD per barel setelah
sempat mencetak harga tertinggi di 101,73 USD per barel, tertinggi sejak 29 September 2008. Sementara itu harga minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman
Maret <CLc1> naik 2,85 USD, atau 3,19% di 92,19 USD per barel, level tertinggi sejak Oktober 2008.

Google launches Twitter workaround for Egypt

SAN FRANCISCO | Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:17pm EST

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Google Inc launched a special service to allow people in Egypt to send Twitter messages by dialing a phone number and leaving a voicemail, as Internet access continues to be cut off in the country amid anti-government protests.

"Like many people we've been glued to the news unfolding in Egypt and thinking of what we could do to help people on the ground," read a post on Google's official corporate blog on Monday.
The service, which Google said was developed with engineers from Twitter, allows people to dial a telephone number and leave a voicemail. The voicemail is automatically translated into a message that is sent on Twitter using the identifying tag #egypt, Google said.
Google said in the blog post, titled "Some weekend work that will (hopefully) enable more Egyptians to be heard," that no Internet connection is required to use the service. Google listed three phone numbers for people to call to use the service.
Internet social networking services like Twitter and Facebook have been important tools of communications for protesters in Egypt.