US & GLOBAL
• Saham‐saham energi dan komoditas mengangkat bursa Wall Street untuk kemudian ditutup relatif menguat tipis meskipun volume perdagangan mencapai
titik terendah selama 2011. Rendahnya volume perdagangan tersebut menurut sementara analis merupakan salah satu indikasi bahwa penguatan tajam
bursa Wall Street kemungkinan akan mulai terhambat. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> turun 5,07 poin atau 0,04% ke 12,268.19, indeks S&P500 <SPX.> naik 3,17
poin atau 0,24% ke 1,332.32 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 7,74 poin atau 0,28% ke 2,817.18.
• Euro anjlok ke level terendah dalam kurun 3‐pekan terakhir terhadap dollar AS dan diprediksi akan melanjutkan pelemahannya dalam sepekan ke depan
setelah pertemuan menteri keuangan Eropa tidak memberikan kejelasan tentang solusi konkret untuk menangani masalah fiskal Uni‐Eropa. Menterimenteri
keuangan Eropa mengadakan pertemuan di Brussels awal pekan ini untuk membahas penguatan dana bailout senilai 440 miliar euro. Jerman tetap
enggan untuk meningkatkan jumlah penyertaan dana pada fasilitas bailout tanpa komitmen anggota Uni‐Eropa pada koordinasi ekonomi yang lebih erat.
Selain itu, berita tentang bank bermasalah asal Jerman ‐ WestLB turut menambah tekanan pada euro. Berdasarkan sumber terdekat, WestLB tengah
mempersiapkan permohonan bantuan dari pemerintah Jerman.
• Pada akhir sesi New York, euro turun 0.4% terhadap dollar AS ke 1.3485<EUR=> setelah sempat menguat hingga level 1.3506 namun kemudian terbebani
kembalinya kekhawatiran investor akan masalah fiskal kawasan Uni‐Eropa. Namun demikian, penurunan euro terbatasi oleh maraknya aksi bank sentral
beberapa negara yang melakukan upaya diversifikasi dari dollar AS. Dollar AS naik sekitar 0,2% terhadap the basket of currencies ke 78,598 <DXY.>, naik di
atas level moving average 100‐hariannya untuk pertama kalinya dalam 4‐minggu terakhir. Dollar AS justru jatuh terhadap yen untuk pertama kalinya dalam
9‐hari terakhir, turun 0,2% ke 83,30 yen <JPY=>. Lelang obligasi Eropa juga menjadi fokus utama bagi investor pada hari awal pekan ini, Italia sukses menjual
obligasi bertenor 30‐tahun senilai 5.2 miliar euro. Meskipun demikian, pelaku pasar masih khawatir akan prospek obligasi negara‐negara kawasan Uni‐Eropa
setelah lelang obligasi sindikasi Portugal akhir pekan lalu tidak terlalu menggembirakan.
• Harga emas naik di atas level 1.360 USD per troy ounce pada perdagangan perdana awal pekan ini terdongkrak kekhawatiran investor bahwa kerusuhan
Mesir akan menyebar ke negara Arab lainnya. Sementara itu harga perak naik lebih dari 2% seiring ekspektasi kenaikan permintaan dari industri yang
didorong oleh tanda‐tanda perbaikan ekonomi global. Harga spot emas <XAU=> naik 0,4% ke 1,360.85 USD per troy ounce.
• Minyak mentah Brent naik lebih dari 2% pada sesi Senin 14 Februari naik diatas level 104 USD per barel untuk pertama kalinya dalam 28‐bulan terakhir
terdorong kekhawatiran unjuk rasa di kawasan Timur Tengah dan meningkatnya impor minyak mentah oleh China. Sementara itu harga minyak mentah AS
justru melemah, terbebani oleh naiknya cadangan minyak AS terutama pada titik penyerahan di Cushing, Oklahoma. Harga minyak mentah Brent London
untuk pengiriman April <LCOc1> naik 2,14 USD ke 103,08 USD per barel, setelah mencapai level 104,30, harga tertinggi sejak 25 September 2008. Minyak
mentah AS untuk bulan Maret <CLc1> turun 77 sen ke 84,81 USD per barel.
title cover
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Wall Street edges up, slack volume points to top
The S&P 500 edged up, trading near its highest since June 2008, nominally a good sign, but the index was stuck in the 1,325-1,333 area without enough buyers to get through this technical hurdle.
A mere 6.6 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, the lowest volume so far this year and far below the 8 billion daily average for 2011.
Shawn Hackett, president at Hackett Advisors in Boynton Beach, Florida, said rising index levels on falling volume sets the stage for a pullback.
"Everything I see suggests the driver now is a last bit of greed and momentum before the market runs out of buyers," he said.
Three-month copper hit a record high after Chinese import figures suggested strong demand for basic materials. Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX.N) jumped 4.9 percent to $56.14 and the PHLX Gold/Silver index .XAU rose 2.2 percent.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI dipped 5.07 points, or 0.04 percent, to 12,268.19. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX rose 3.17 points, or 0.24 percent, to 1,332.32. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC gained 7.74 points, or 0.28 percent, to 2,817.18.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N) was one of the worst performers on the Dow after JPMorgan downgraded the stock. Shares fell 1.6 percent to $54.80.
The S&P 500 has gained nearly 27 percent since the start of September. It now stands near the 50 percent extension of last year's slide from April to July and also near 100 percent advance from the low hit in March 2009.
The coincidence of the levels makes the technical resistance stronger.
Still, some traders see residual strength in the market and are willing to buy on any declines in prices.
"We wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback, but longer term we think the market has room to grow," said Mitch Rubin, chief investment officer at RiverPark Advisors in New York.
Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a ratio of about 5 to 4, while on the Nasdaq, about seven stocks rose for every six that fell.
U.S. President Barack Obama proposed a federal budget that he said would cut the U.S. deficit by $1.1 trillion over the next 10 years. Congress must approve the plan, and Republicans, who are in the majority in the House, said it did not curb spending enough.
Obama's budget would provide $8 billion for investment in clean energy, but big drugmakers might take a hit from generic competition under two proposals in the plan.
Among alternative energy companies, Trina Solar (TSL.N) gained 5.2 percent to $28.79 while GT Solar International (SOLR.O) climbed 2.7 percent to $11.50. Drugmaker Merck & Co (MRK.N), a Dow component, slid 0.8 percent to $32.82.
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc (GMCR.O) shares jumped 6.7 percent to $46.35 after Reuters reported the company has been in partnership negotiations with Starbucks Corp (SBUX.O).
Recent merger and acquisition activity continued.
EchoStar Corp (SATS.O) agreed to buy Hughes Communications Inc (HUGH.O) for about $1.33 billion. Private equity firm Clayton, Dubilier & Rice agreed to take Emergency Medical Services Corp (EMS.N) private for about $3 billion.
Shares of Hughes fell 3.7 percent to $59.47 while EchoStar rose 3.2 percent to $30.84. Emergency Medical fell almost 11 percent to $62.92.
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Headline News 14.02.11
• Bursa saham global seperti Wall Street dan bursa Eropa naik sementara harga komoditas seperti minyak dan emas terkoreksi pada akhir minggu kemarin
menyusul meredanya concern geopolitik setelah pernyataan mundur dari presiden Mesir, Hosni Mubarak, dan menyerahkan kepemimpinannya ke wakil
presidennya. Indeks FTSEurofirst 300 naik 0.41%, indeks MSCI untuk bursa saham dunia naik 0.16%.
• Namun USD dan obligasi pemerintah masih naik karena masih ada kekhawatiran di kalangan investor mereka terhadap kondisi Mesir yang berpotensi
meyebar ke negara‐negara Arab sekitar. Sementara data ekonomi AS kembali dirilis positif yang memperkuat pandangan terhadap kelangsungan pemulihan
ekonomi AS. Di sisi lain mulai berkembangnya pesimisme terhadap penanganan krisis utang Eropa masih menekan euro.
• Indeks Dollar AS naik lebih dari 0.2% sementara EUR/USD terkoreksi hingga 0.35% ke level 1.3540 setelah penutupan NY akhir minggu lalu. Harga emas di
pasar spot <XAU=> turun $6.00 ke level $1357.00/troy ounce.
• Di minggu ke depan isu mesir hingga concern inflasi masih akan berpotensi menjadi market‐mover, namun selain itu yang tak kalah penting adalah laporan
earning perusahaan yang kali ini akan terfokus pada perusahaan‐perusahaan Eropa. Minggu ini dijadwalkan perusahaan jasa keuangan/perbankan, seperti
Barclays, AXA, BNP Paribas hingga Volvo akan merilis laporan keuangan kuartalan mereka.
• Minggu lalu laporan keuangan Credit Suisse dirilis di bawah harapan pasar, yang mengakumulasi kekhawatiran terhadap earning korporasi global setelah
perusahaan teknologi raksasa Cisco Systems Inc melaporkan keuntungan yang mengecewakan. Belum ada setengah dari perusahaan yang tergabung dalam
indeks saham Eropa (STOXX 600) yang merilis laporan keuangannya, namun lebih dari 50% dari total yang telah melaporkan tersebut belum memenuhi
ekspektasi pasar. Dibandingkan perusahaan‐perusahaan AS yang tergabung dalam indeks S&P500, hanya 25% dari total yang telah merilis laporannya yang
tidak memenuhi ekspektasi pasar.
• Bursa emerging market terutama Asia masih diselimuti oleh concern lonjakan inflasi dan pengaruhnya terhadap pengetatan kebijakan moneter. Hal ini
menekan indeks saham MSCI emerging market hingga lebih dari 5% di minggu lalu. Kekhawatiran inflasi tersebut berkembang setelah terjadi kenaikan
harga‐harga makanan.
• Concern inflasi juga mulai menyebar ke developing market, terkait dengan dampaknya terhadap pengetatan kebijakan moneter dan kenaikan suku bunga.
Lonjakan harga di tingkat grosir/produsen juga terjadi di Jerman dan Inggris. Bahkan hal tersebut sempat menyebabkan harga inflasi di tingkat konsumen
Jerman di revisi naik.
• Minggu ini data inflasi harga konsumen di Cina, AS dan Inggris akan diamati pasar. Selain itu pasar juga akan melihat laporan inflasi kuartalan Inggris (Rabu)
minggu ini khususnya terkait dengan meningkatnya proyeksi dimulainya kenaikan suku bunga BoE di bulan Mei tahun ini.
• Concern inflasi ini pulalah yang akan mengisi pertemuan menteri keuangan dan kepala bank sentral negara‐negara G20 di Paris akhir minggu nanti. Pasar
akan melihat apakah akan dilakukan ‘tindakan bersama’ terkait dengan potensi kenaikan inflasi di emerging market. Hal ini akan berpotensi menjadi majordriver
terhadap pergerakan pasar ke depannya.
Markets end second week of gains after Mubarak resigns
The S&P's five-month surge, which has taken it up almost 27 percent, has confounded those calling for a correction, but weak volume recently has been undercutting the unfailingly bullish direction in equities. Only 7.7 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, below last year's daily average of 8.47 billion.
The volume "suggests that maybe we're getting waning interest and a narrowing of the market," said James Gaul, portfolio manager at Boston Advisors LLC in Boston, which manages $1.7 billion.
Financials led on the back of the reduced uncertainty, rising throughout the trading day. Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) gained 1.9 percent to $14.77 and the KBW Banks index .BKX added 1.8 percent.
Market Vectors Egypt Index ETF (EGPT.P) rallied on record volume the news, climbing 4.5 percent to $18.60.
Two weeks of anti-government protests in Egypt sparked concerns the unrest could spread across the Middle East, contributing to volatility in markets and commodity prices worldwide.
"If things deteriorated in Egypt that would have created a risk for U.S. markets, especially if the Suez Canal was closed," Gaul said. "We've removed a short-term uncertainty and are seeing a positive reaction as a result."
He added that some uncertainty persisted. Vice President Omar Suleiman said a military council would run Egyptian affairs, but some have questioned the army's appetite for real democracy.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 43.97 points, or 0.36 percent, at 12,273.26. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 7.28 points, or 0.55 percent, at 1,329.15. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 18.99 points, or 0.68 percent, at 2,809.44.
For the week, the Dow is up 1.5 percent and both the S&P and Nasdaq are up 1.4 percent.
Kraft Foods Inc (KFT.N) limited gains in the Dow on Friday a day after it cut its 2011 profit growth forecast, sending the stock down 1.4 percent to $30.66, the biggest percentage decliner on the blue-chip index.
Shares of mortgage insurers rose after the Obama administration presented options for overhauling the wrecked U.S. housing finance system. It pledged to continue backing existing obligations of government-controlled mortgage finance sources Fannie Mae (FNMA.OB) and Freddie Mac (FMCC.OB).
PMI Group (PMI.N) shares rose 2.8 percent to $3.34 and Radian Group (RDN.N) gained 13.4 percent to $8.03.
A drought in Northern China has hit 7.7 million hectares of winter wheat growing areas, which, coupled with strong demand, is lifting some agricultural processor stocks, according to optionMonster co-founder Jon Najarian.
Agribusiness Bunge Ltd (BG.N) rose 3.4 percent to $71.36 and Archer-Daniels Midland Co (ADM.N) gained 2.2 percent to $36.22.
Commodities were a weak spot as crude oil prices declined in parallel with a falling-off of worries of possible oil supply problems in the Middle East. March crude futures dropped 1.5 percent.
Nokia (NOK1V.HE) (NOK.N), the world's largest cellphone maker, and Microsoft (MSFT.O) teamed up to build an iPhone challenger in an attempt to take on Google and Apple in the fast-growing smartphone market.
U.S.-listed shares of Nokia slumped 14 percent to $9.36. Dow component Microsoft was 0.9 percent lower at $27.25.
Almost three stocks rose for every one that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. More than two stocks rose for every decliner on the Nasdaq.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Headline News 11.02.11
US & GLOBAL
• Indeks Nasdaq dan S&P500 akhirnya mampu mencatat penguatan setelah hampir sepanjang perdagangan Kamis kemarin bergerak di
wilayah negatif. Penguatan dipicu oleh meredanya eskalasi konflik di Mesir setelah presiden Hosni Mubarak mengatakan akan
mendelegasikan kekuasaannya pada wakil presiden, setelah sebelumnya dikabarkan akan mundur dari jabatannya. Sementara Dow Jones
ditutup melemah, mengakhiri kenaikannya selama 8 sesi berturut‐turut sebelumnya setelah pesimisme outlook dari perusahaan teknologi
Cisco System Inc.
• Prospek pemulihan ekonomi AS kembali berkembang setelah data weekly jobless claims AS turun ke level terendahnya selama 2,5 tahun –
sebuah indikasi mulai membaiknya pasar tenaga kerja.
• Sementara laporan earning di Eropa mengganggu sentimen positif di bursa global semalam, setelah laporan Credit Suisse gagal memenuhi
ekspektasi pasar. Masih di Eropa, sentimen pesimis juga berkembang setelah ada indikasi penanganan krisis kredit belum memadai.
• USD menguat didukung oleh perbaikan data tenaga kerja dan lemahnya euro. Selain itu, penguatan USD juga didukung oleh lemahnya
Swiss franc yang tertahan penguatannya sebagai mata uang safe‐haven setelah meredanya eskalasi konflik di Mesir. Indeks USD mendekati
level terkuatnya selama 1 minggu di sekitar 78.336. Sementara dollar ke level terkuatnya selama 1 bulan terhadap yen di 83.29.
• Outlook Jumat (11/Feb/2011): Bursa saham Asia nampaknya masih berpotensi tertekan dari kekhawatiran inflasi dan pengetatan
kebijakan moneter di emerging market. Sementara konsolidasi di bursa Wall Street juga dapat memberikan imbasnya. USD masih
berpotensi mengalami penguatan terhadap mata uang global menyusul perbaikan ekonomi yang terus terjadi, terlebih setelah salah satu
indikator tenaga kerja mencatat perbaikan signifikan semalam.
• Indeks Nasdaq dan S&P500 akhirnya mampu mencatat penguatan setelah hampir sepanjang perdagangan Kamis kemarin bergerak di
wilayah negatif. Penguatan dipicu oleh meredanya eskalasi konflik di Mesir setelah presiden Hosni Mubarak mengatakan akan
mendelegasikan kekuasaannya pada wakil presiden, setelah sebelumnya dikabarkan akan mundur dari jabatannya. Sementara Dow Jones
ditutup melemah, mengakhiri kenaikannya selama 8 sesi berturut‐turut sebelumnya setelah pesimisme outlook dari perusahaan teknologi
Cisco System Inc.
• Prospek pemulihan ekonomi AS kembali berkembang setelah data weekly jobless claims AS turun ke level terendahnya selama 2,5 tahun –
sebuah indikasi mulai membaiknya pasar tenaga kerja.
• Sementara laporan earning di Eropa mengganggu sentimen positif di bursa global semalam, setelah laporan Credit Suisse gagal memenuhi
ekspektasi pasar. Masih di Eropa, sentimen pesimis juga berkembang setelah ada indikasi penanganan krisis kredit belum memadai.
• USD menguat didukung oleh perbaikan data tenaga kerja dan lemahnya euro. Selain itu, penguatan USD juga didukung oleh lemahnya
Swiss franc yang tertahan penguatannya sebagai mata uang safe‐haven setelah meredanya eskalasi konflik di Mesir. Indeks USD mendekati
level terkuatnya selama 1 minggu di sekitar 78.336. Sementara dollar ke level terkuatnya selama 1 bulan terhadap yen di 83.29.
• Outlook Jumat (11/Feb/2011): Bursa saham Asia nampaknya masih berpotensi tertekan dari kekhawatiran inflasi dan pengetatan
kebijakan moneter di emerging market. Sementara konsolidasi di bursa Wall Street juga dapat memberikan imbasnya. USD masih
berpotensi mengalami penguatan terhadap mata uang global menyusul perbaikan ekonomi yang terus terjadi, terlebih setelah salah satu
indikator tenaga kerja mencatat perbaikan signifikan semalam.
Rage in Egypt as Mubarak hangs on
The armed forces high command had earlier issued "Communique No.1," declaring it was taking control of the nation in what some called a military coup seeking to end the turmoil under the 82-year-old former general, who has ruled for 30 years.
"Leave! Leave!" chanted hundreds of thousands who had gathered in Cairo's Tahrir Square in anticipation that a televised address would be the moment their demands were met.
Instead, the former air force commander portrayed himself as a patriot and war hero overseeing an orderly transition until an election in September -- in which he said last week he would not stand. Mubarak praised young people who have stunned the Arab world with unprecedented rallies. He offered constitutional change and a bigger role for Vice President Omar Suleiman.
Waving shoes in the air in a dramatic Arab show of contempt, the crowds in central Cairo chanted: "Down, down Hosni Mubarak."
Asked if Mubarak would step down, an Egyptian official had told Reuters before the speech: "Most probably." But his information minister had said that would not be the case.
Joy turned to despair and then to anger.
Mohamed ElBaradei, a Nobel peace prize winner and retired U.N. diplomat who runs a liberal political movement, wrote on Twitter: "Egypt will explode. Army must save the country now."
DELEGATING POWERS
In a 20-minute address in which he said he would not bow to foreign pressure -- Washington has called on its old ally to make way quickly -- Mubarak said he would "delegate to the vice president of the republic the prerogatives of the president of the republic in a manner that is fixed by the constitution."
"It is not immediately clear what powers are being handed over," British Foreign Secretary William Hague told the BBC.
Suleiman, a 74-year-old former intelligence chief who was promoted just last month, is not widely popular with protesters who are seeking a complete break with the military-dominated system that has governed
Egypt for the past six decades.
Suleiman appeared on state television to say there was a "road map" for transition and said he would oversee a "peaceful transition of power" in the Arab world's most populous nation.
Egypt's sprawling armed forces -- the world's 10th biggest and more than 468,000-strong -- have been at the heart of power since army officers overthrew the British-backed king in 1952.
The army, from politically plugged-in generals to poor conscripts and junior officers, is key to what happens next. "This poses a real dilemma for the army," said Rosemary Hollis at London's City University. "Are they going to allow the demonstrators to escalate their demonstrations so that they push the point that Mubarak has got to go, and that means the army definitely does split with Mubarak? he demonstrators are very disappointed and there will be violence."
Robert Springborg of the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School called Mubarak and Suleiman's speeches "enormously provocative," made by "desperate men, willing to gamble the fate of the nation for their own personal interest."
"The speeches ... are not intended to bring an end to the crisis in a peaceful way but to inflame the situation so there is justification for the imposition of direct military rule. They are risking not only the coherence of the military but even indeed, and I use this term with advisement here, civil war."
The army quelled bread riots in Egypt in 1977 and halted a rampage by policemen over pay in 1986, but the momentous scale and consequences of the uprising that began on January 25 across the country dwarfs those events.
I FELT YOUR PAIN
"I have felt all the pain you felt," said Mubarak, who last week had already pledged not to run again in September. "I will not go back on my response to your voice and your call."
"Your demands are legitimate and just ... There is no shame in hearing your voices and opinions, but I refuse any and all dictations from abroad," he said.
"I have announced my commitment to peacefully hand over power after upcoming elections ... I will deliver Egypt and its people to safety," he said, once more, as he did last week, trying to paint himself as the father of the nation.
After the speech last week many Egyptians beyond the urban elites in the vanguard of recent protests had said they were satisfied by a promise of change in due course and have said they were more interested now in an end to economic disruption.
Tourists, a key source of income to the country of pyramids and Red Sea beaches, have deserted the hotels since last month.
But the anger on the streets of Cairo and Alexandria, hours ahead of a planned "Day of Martyrs" protest on Friday to commemorate the 300 or more killed by security forces since January 25 appeared ominous in an environment where the army has been on the streets for two weeks and on Thursday said it was in charge.
"We want a civilian state, civilian state, civilian state!" Doaa Abdelaal said on Twitter, an Internet service that many see as a vital catalyst for the protests in Tunisia and Egypt that have electrified oppressed populations across the Arab world.
"The army is worried that tomorrow on Friday the people will overpower state buildings and the army will not be able to fire back," Anees said. "The army now is pressuring Mubarak to resolve the situation."
It remained to be seen if his speech would satisfy the army.
"He doesn't seem to understand the magnitude of what is happening in Egypt. At this point I don't think it will suffice," said Alanoud al-Sharek at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "He has performed quite a sleight of hand. He has transferred authority to Omar Suleiman while somehow retaining his position as ruler."
WASHINGTON WARY OF TUMULT
News that Mubarak may hand over power, or be unseated, in this key American ally in the Middle East had provoked loud and emotional cheers in Cairo's Tahrir Square, the focal point for pro-democracy demonstrations. But some in the crowd were quick to protest they did not want military rule.
Washington's approach to the turmoil has been based from the start on Egypt's strategic importance -- as a rare Arab state no longer hostile to Israel, as the guardian of the Suez canal linking Europe and Asia and as a major force against militant Islam in the Middle East.
President Barack Obama, hailing history unfolding, said the United States would support an "orderly and genuine transition to democracy" -- Washington would be publicly uncomfortable if the army held on to power, and also does not want Islamist rule.
It had no immediate reaction to Mubarak's speech.
Washington pressured Mubarak to speed up the pace of reform but stopped short of demanding the resignation of the president of the country, which has a 1979 peace treaty with Israel and an army which receives about $1.3 billion in U.S. aid a year.
The protests that have shaken the Egyptian political system and the political landscape of the Middle East was partly inspired by the example of Tunisia, where street protesters toppled the president on January 14.
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Headline News 10.02.11
US & GLOBAL
• Aksi ambil untung investor mendominasi perdagangan sesi Rabu 09 Februari pasca kenaikan tajam indeks dalam beberapa sesi terakhir, namun penguatan
saham Bank of America di akhir sesi berhasil mendorong Dow Jones ditutup di area positif dan mencatat penguatan beruntun dalam 8‐sesi terakhir. Pelaku
pasar optimistis bahwa laporan earning korporasi yang solid masih akan memberi inspirasi penguatan bursa lebih lanjut, meskipun volume perdagangan
yang cukup tipis akhir‐akhir ini mulai menimbulkan kekhawatiran bahwa minat beli investor sudah mulai berkurang.
• Raksasa teknologi Cisco Systems Inc pasca penutpan pasar melaporkan laporan keuangan yang lebih tinggi dari perkiraan, meskipun marjin keuntungannya
tidak terlalu menggembirakan. Sementara itu saham‐saham energi dan materal membebani kinerja indeks terdesak proyeksi akan berkurangnya permintaan
dari emerging countries terutama Cina dan India. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 6,74 poin atau 0,06% ke 1,239.89, indeks S&P500 <. SPX> turun 3,69 poin
atau 0,28% ke 1,320.88 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> turun 7,98 poin atau 0,29% ke 2,789.07.
• Dollar AS merosot terhadap euro menyusul turunnya imbal hasil obligasi AS yang memicu aksi jual investor terhadap dollar AS terdorong komentar Ketua
Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke bahwa program pembelian obligasi masih akan terus berlanjut. Dollar AS jatuh ke level terendah dalam 3‐hari terakhir
terhadap euro, namun stabil terhadap yen Jepang. Euro sempat menguat hingga level 1,3745 <EUR=> berhasil menembus diatas resistance 1.3740 (level
teknis, 61.8% fibonacci retracement dari pelemahan sejak November hingga Januari), untuk kemudian ditutup naik 0.7% ke level 1,3722.
• Investor berharap dengan data fundamental ekonomi akhir‐akhir ini yang positif, The Fed akan mulai berfikir untuk mengakhiri program pembelian obligasi
senilai 600 miliar USD lebih cepat dari yang diharapkan. Namun sebaliknya, Bernanke justru kembali menekankan kekhawatiran tentang angka
pengangguran yang tinggi, kondisi mana menguatkan ekspektasi bahwa quantitative easning The Fed masih akan berlangsung dan akan mendorong
pelemahan dollar AS. Dollar AS tercatat melemah 0,6% terhadap Swiss Franc <CHF=> ke 0,9574 franc dan juga turun 0,2% terhadap sterling ke 1,6102
<GBP=>.
• Emas ditutup stagnan dalam sesi perdagangan yang tipis didukung oleh pelemahan dollar AS terhadap mata uang utama dunia pasca komentar Ketua The
Fed ‐ Ben Bernanke. Harga spot emas <XAU=> turun 0,1% ke 1,362.04 USD per troy ounce.
• Sementara itu harga minyak mentah Brent crude London melonjak hampir 2% ke level 101.82 USD per barel ditopang pelemahan dollar AS dan masih
berlanjutnya kerusuhan di Mesir yang memicu kekhawatiran akan pasokan minyak di kawasan tersebut. Harga minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Maret
<CLH1> ditutup turun 23 sen ke level 86,71 USD per barel.
• Aksi ambil untung investor mendominasi perdagangan sesi Rabu 09 Februari pasca kenaikan tajam indeks dalam beberapa sesi terakhir, namun penguatan
saham Bank of America di akhir sesi berhasil mendorong Dow Jones ditutup di area positif dan mencatat penguatan beruntun dalam 8‐sesi terakhir. Pelaku
pasar optimistis bahwa laporan earning korporasi yang solid masih akan memberi inspirasi penguatan bursa lebih lanjut, meskipun volume perdagangan
yang cukup tipis akhir‐akhir ini mulai menimbulkan kekhawatiran bahwa minat beli investor sudah mulai berkurang.
• Raksasa teknologi Cisco Systems Inc pasca penutpan pasar melaporkan laporan keuangan yang lebih tinggi dari perkiraan, meskipun marjin keuntungannya
tidak terlalu menggembirakan. Sementara itu saham‐saham energi dan materal membebani kinerja indeks terdesak proyeksi akan berkurangnya permintaan
dari emerging countries terutama Cina dan India. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 6,74 poin atau 0,06% ke 1,239.89, indeks S&P500 <. SPX> turun 3,69 poin
atau 0,28% ke 1,320.88 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> turun 7,98 poin atau 0,29% ke 2,789.07.
• Dollar AS merosot terhadap euro menyusul turunnya imbal hasil obligasi AS yang memicu aksi jual investor terhadap dollar AS terdorong komentar Ketua
Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke bahwa program pembelian obligasi masih akan terus berlanjut. Dollar AS jatuh ke level terendah dalam 3‐hari terakhir
terhadap euro, namun stabil terhadap yen Jepang. Euro sempat menguat hingga level 1,3745 <EUR=> berhasil menembus diatas resistance 1.3740 (level
teknis, 61.8% fibonacci retracement dari pelemahan sejak November hingga Januari), untuk kemudian ditutup naik 0.7% ke level 1,3722.
• Investor berharap dengan data fundamental ekonomi akhir‐akhir ini yang positif, The Fed akan mulai berfikir untuk mengakhiri program pembelian obligasi
senilai 600 miliar USD lebih cepat dari yang diharapkan. Namun sebaliknya, Bernanke justru kembali menekankan kekhawatiran tentang angka
pengangguran yang tinggi, kondisi mana menguatkan ekspektasi bahwa quantitative easning The Fed masih akan berlangsung dan akan mendorong
pelemahan dollar AS. Dollar AS tercatat melemah 0,6% terhadap Swiss Franc <CHF=> ke 0,9574 franc dan juga turun 0,2% terhadap sterling ke 1,6102
<GBP=>.
• Emas ditutup stagnan dalam sesi perdagangan yang tipis didukung oleh pelemahan dollar AS terhadap mata uang utama dunia pasca komentar Ketua The
Fed ‐ Ben Bernanke. Harga spot emas <XAU=> turun 0,1% ke 1,362.04 USD per troy ounce.
• Sementara itu harga minyak mentah Brent crude London melonjak hampir 2% ke level 101.82 USD per barel ditopang pelemahan dollar AS dan masih
berlanjutnya kerusuhan di Mesir yang memicu kekhawatiran akan pasokan minyak di kawasan tersebut. Harga minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Maret
<CLH1> ditutup turun 23 sen ke level 86,71 USD per barel.
Gold flat but dollar drop, Bernanke view underpin
In testimony to Congress, Bernanke suggested U.S. economic conditions were still too weak for the central bank to pull back on its vast monetary stimulus, despite a welcome drop in the jobless rate.
"I saw the positives to gold in Bernanke's comments. It seems that he's going to maintain the QE2 policy in place, and that's a bullish argument for commodities," said Tom Pawlicki, a precious metals and energy analyst at MF Global.
In November, the Fed launched a plan to buy $600 billion in government debt to keep borrowing costs low to stimulate the economy, a process known as quantitative easing.
Gold was trying to restore upward momentum after gaining more than 4 percent in the past 10 days, and a rise in Chinese interest rates for the second time in just over six weeks benefited gold's status as an inflation hedge.
Spot gold slipped 0.1 percent to $1,362.04 an ounce by 3:02 p.m. EST.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled up $1.40 at $1,365.50. Trading volume nearly halved its 30-day average, in line with weaker turnover in the past several sessions.
Bullion buying increased as the dollar faltered against the euro and as U.S. bond yields fell after a seven-session winning streak following a solid auction of 10-year Treasury notes, traders said.
A run of well-received economic data in January had taken the wind out of gold's sails and increased speculation that a correction was due, pushing prices back toward $1,300 an ounce.
"A lot of speculative (investors) that had gone in at the end of last year clearly saw growth being reignited and they got scared," said London & Capital portfolio manager Pau Morilla Giner. "They thought that gold would lose its appeal."
"But the long-term money in gold is still there," he said. "The realization is that economic news has been better than expected because the stimulus that has been applied has been extraordinary."
Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust, dipped to 1,228.56 tonnes on Tuesday from 1,228.864 tonnes the previous day, although the hefty outflows seen in January have apparently been staunched.
The SPDR fund experienced its second-biggest monthly outflow and the main silver ETF, the iShares Silver Trust, its biggest ever outflow last month, adding downward momentum to precious metal prices.
GOLD-SILVER RATIO DROPS
Silver eased 0.7 percent to $30.11 an ounce, after reaching its highest price since January 4 on Tuesday at $30.84 an ounce.
The gold-silver ratio -- the number of silver ounces needed to buy an ounce of gold -- fell to near a five-year low.
"Traders are trying to play the industrial uses of silver. As the economic data has improved, they bought silver over gold, thinking that they would benefit from both silver's precious and industrial aspects," MF Global's Pawlicki said.
However, increasing acceptance of physical gold bullion as collateral by banks and exchanges could provide support to the prices of the yellow metal, Pawlicki said.
Earlier this week, J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM.N) said it would accept physical gold as collateral with its counterparties as a growing number of clients look to use bullion as a hedge against inflation.
LCH.Clearnet also said it was hoping to accept gold as collateral later this year.
Platinum and palladium rose back to multi-year highs on Wednesday at $1,865 and $836.75 an ounce, respectively, boosted by firmer gold prices, a softer dollar, and expectations that demand from carmakers for the autocatalyst metals will improve.
Platinum slipped 0.2 percent to $1,850.99 an ounce, while palladium dropped 1.4 percent to $826.45.
Prices at 3:11 p.m. EST
LAST/ NET PCT YTD
CLOSE CHG CHG CHG US gold 1365.50 1.40 0.1% -3.9% US silver 30.276 0.005 0.0% -2.1% US platinum 1859.40 -2.50 -0.1% 4.6% US palladium 826.45 -12.00 -1.4% 2.9%
Gold 1362.06 -1.53 -0.1% -4.0% Silver 30.12 -0.19 -0.6% -2.4% Platinum 1851.24 -4.00 -0.2% 4.7% Palladium 823.72 -12.00 -1.4% 3.0%
Gold Fix 1365.00 2.50 0.2% -3.2% Silver Fix 30.22 80.00 2.7% -1.3% Platinum Fix 1858.00 5.00 0.3% 7.3% Palladium Fix 835.00 1.00 0.1% 5.6%
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Headline News 09.02.11
US & GLOBAL
• Bursa saham AS berhasil menguat dan tercatat sebagai kenaikan beruntun dalam 7‐sesi terakhir, meskipun volume perdagangan cukup rendah
yang menandakan minimnya kepercayaan investor bahwa rally tajam bursa dalam 5‐bulan terakhir ini akan terus berlanjut. Sementara itu laporan
penjualan McDonald's yang positif mendongkrak optimisme pada consumer spending yang kemudian turut menyokong penguatan Dow Jones
dalam sesi perdagangan dengan volume paling rendah sepanjang 2011, dimana total volume perdagangan sekitar 17% di bawah rata‐rata
perdagangan harian 2010 lalu. Pelemahan pada saham‐saham energi membatasi berlanjutnya kenaikan indeks S&P500 dan Nasdaq setelah
langkah Cina yang menaikkan suku bunga untuk kedua kalinya dalam 6‐pekan terakhir. Langkah tersebut menekan saham‐saham komoditas karena
mencuatkan kekhawatiran turunnya permintaan Cina pada komoditas dunia. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 71,52 poin atau 0,59% ke 12,233.15,
indeks S&P500 <. SPX> naik 5,52 poin atau 0,42% ke 1,324.57 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 13,06 poin atau 0,47% ke 2,797.05.
• Menguatnya minat investor terhadap mata uang beresiko berhasil mengangkat performa euro baik terhadap dollar AS maupun terhadap Swiss
franc. Kinerja euro juga terdongkrak maraknya aksi beli dari bank sentral negara‐negara kawasan Asia. Investor melepas Aussie dollar dan
mengalihkannya pada euro dan mata uang lain setelah langkah PBOC (People Bank of China) yang menaikkan suku bunga acuan menjadi 6.06% dan
suku bunga deposito menjadi 3%, kondisi mana meningkatkan kekhawatiran akan berkurangnya permintaan komoditas dari Cina. Aussie dollar
merupakan mata uang yang paling sensitif terhadap kebijakan suku bunga Cina menyusul posisi Australia sebagai pemasok terbesar komoditas
China.
• Aussie dollar sempat melemah terhadap dollar AS setelah pengumuman kenaikan suku bunga Cina, namun berhasil kembali menguat pada sesi
New York dan ditutup naik 0,2% ke level 1,0147. Rendahnya permintaan dalam penjualan obligasi AS berdampak negatif terhadap kinerja dollar.
Imbal hasil obligasi AS turun dalam 7‐sesi berturut‐turut setelah rendahnya minat investor pada lelang obligasi AS dengan tenor 3‐tahun senilai 32
miliar USD. Dollar AS melemah 0.1% terhadap basket of currencies ke 77,956 <DXY.> dan tercatat melemah 0,02% terhadap yen <JPY=> ke 82,33.
Sementara itu euro <EUR=> ditutup menguat 0,3% terhadap dollar AS ke 1,3632 sebagai dampak dari aksi ambil untung pelaku pasar dari
penguatan dollar AS dalam 4‐sesi terakhir. Terhadap Swiss franc <EURCHF=>, euro naik 1,1% ke level 1,3122 franc.
• Emas naik 1% pada sesi Selasa 09 Februari mencapai level tertinggi dalam kurun 3‐pekan terakhir seiring kekhawatiran akan tekanan inflasi dan
setelah emas berhasil menembus level teknis penting (moving average 100‐day). Sementara itu kenaikan suku bunga China untuk kedua kalinya
dalam 6‐pekan terakhir memberikan keuntungan bagi kinerja emas secara luas sebagai lindung nilai inflasi. Harga spot emas <XAU=> naik 0,9%
kelevel 1,362.90 USD per troy ounce.
• Harga minyak mentah Brent London naik mendekati 100 USD per barel pada Selasa seiring kekacauan politik di Mesir yang meningkatkan
kekhawatiran tentang potensi gangguan pasokan minyak kawasan tersebut, sedangkan harga minyak mentah AS berakhir melemah tipis dalam sesi
perdagangan yang volatile. Di London, harga ICE minyak mentah Brent untuk Maret <LCOc1> naik 67 sen ke level 99,92 USD per barel, setelah
mencapai level 100,42 USD. Harga minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Maret <CLc1> turun 54 sen ke 86,94 USD per barel.
• Bursa saham AS berhasil menguat dan tercatat sebagai kenaikan beruntun dalam 7‐sesi terakhir, meskipun volume perdagangan cukup rendah
yang menandakan minimnya kepercayaan investor bahwa rally tajam bursa dalam 5‐bulan terakhir ini akan terus berlanjut. Sementara itu laporan
penjualan McDonald's yang positif mendongkrak optimisme pada consumer spending yang kemudian turut menyokong penguatan Dow Jones
dalam sesi perdagangan dengan volume paling rendah sepanjang 2011, dimana total volume perdagangan sekitar 17% di bawah rata‐rata
perdagangan harian 2010 lalu. Pelemahan pada saham‐saham energi membatasi berlanjutnya kenaikan indeks S&P500 dan Nasdaq setelah
langkah Cina yang menaikkan suku bunga untuk kedua kalinya dalam 6‐pekan terakhir. Langkah tersebut menekan saham‐saham komoditas karena
mencuatkan kekhawatiran turunnya permintaan Cina pada komoditas dunia. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 71,52 poin atau 0,59% ke 12,233.15,
indeks S&P500 <. SPX> naik 5,52 poin atau 0,42% ke 1,324.57 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 13,06 poin atau 0,47% ke 2,797.05.
• Menguatnya minat investor terhadap mata uang beresiko berhasil mengangkat performa euro baik terhadap dollar AS maupun terhadap Swiss
franc. Kinerja euro juga terdongkrak maraknya aksi beli dari bank sentral negara‐negara kawasan Asia. Investor melepas Aussie dollar dan
mengalihkannya pada euro dan mata uang lain setelah langkah PBOC (People Bank of China) yang menaikkan suku bunga acuan menjadi 6.06% dan
suku bunga deposito menjadi 3%, kondisi mana meningkatkan kekhawatiran akan berkurangnya permintaan komoditas dari Cina. Aussie dollar
merupakan mata uang yang paling sensitif terhadap kebijakan suku bunga Cina menyusul posisi Australia sebagai pemasok terbesar komoditas
China.
• Aussie dollar sempat melemah terhadap dollar AS setelah pengumuman kenaikan suku bunga Cina, namun berhasil kembali menguat pada sesi
New York dan ditutup naik 0,2% ke level 1,0147. Rendahnya permintaan dalam penjualan obligasi AS berdampak negatif terhadap kinerja dollar.
Imbal hasil obligasi AS turun dalam 7‐sesi berturut‐turut setelah rendahnya minat investor pada lelang obligasi AS dengan tenor 3‐tahun senilai 32
miliar USD. Dollar AS melemah 0.1% terhadap basket of currencies ke 77,956 <DXY.> dan tercatat melemah 0,02% terhadap yen <JPY=> ke 82,33.
Sementara itu euro <EUR=> ditutup menguat 0,3% terhadap dollar AS ke 1,3632 sebagai dampak dari aksi ambil untung pelaku pasar dari
penguatan dollar AS dalam 4‐sesi terakhir. Terhadap Swiss franc <EURCHF=>, euro naik 1,1% ke level 1,3122 franc.
• Emas naik 1% pada sesi Selasa 09 Februari mencapai level tertinggi dalam kurun 3‐pekan terakhir seiring kekhawatiran akan tekanan inflasi dan
setelah emas berhasil menembus level teknis penting (moving average 100‐day). Sementara itu kenaikan suku bunga China untuk kedua kalinya
dalam 6‐pekan terakhir memberikan keuntungan bagi kinerja emas secara luas sebagai lindung nilai inflasi. Harga spot emas <XAU=> naik 0,9%
kelevel 1,362.90 USD per troy ounce.
• Harga minyak mentah Brent London naik mendekati 100 USD per barel pada Selasa seiring kekacauan politik di Mesir yang meningkatkan
kekhawatiran tentang potensi gangguan pasokan minyak kawasan tersebut, sedangkan harga minyak mentah AS berakhir melemah tipis dalam sesi
perdagangan yang volatile. Di London, harga ICE minyak mentah Brent untuk Maret <LCOc1> naik 67 sen ke level 99,92 USD per barel, setelah
mencapai level 100,42 USD. Harga minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Maret <CLc1> turun 54 sen ke 86,94 USD per barel.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Headline News 08.02.11
• Aktifitas merjer dan diversifikasi beberapa perusahaan berhasil mengangkat optimisme pelaku pasar dan mendorong kenaikan indeks Dow
Jones serta S&P ke level tertinggi dalam kurun 2‐1/2 tahun terakhir. Aksi beli investor semakin meningkat setelah indeks S&P500
menembus level teknikal 1.313. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 0,57% ke 12,161.55, indeks S&P500 <. SPX> naik 0,62% ke 1,319.05 dan
Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 0,53% ke 2,783.99.
• Euro ditutup stagnan terhadap dollar AS setelah mencatat level terendah dalam kurun 2‐pekan terakhir, namun analis berpendapat
tekanan pada euro masih cukup kuat dimana lemahnya data industrial orders Jerman meningkatkan keraguan pada proyeksi kenaikan suku
bunga ECB. Investor melakukan aksi ambil untung pada euro yang menguat sejak awal tahun ini, aksi mana dipicu rilis data industrial
orders Jerman untuk Desember yang dirilis jauh dibawah perkiraan. Pada akhir sesi New York, euro ditutup sedikit menguat 0.01% ke
1.3586. Terhadap yen, dollar AS naik tipis 0.2% ke 82,30 yen <JPY=>.
• Pelaku pasar saat ini mulai memandang serius prospek kenaikan suku bunga AS terutama pada 2012 mendatang, terutama terdorong
optimisme rilis data sektor ketenagakerjaan AS pekan lalu yang menunjukkan penurunan unemployment menjadi 9%. Hal tersebut
mendorong kenaikan benchmark imbal hasil obligasi AS dan menaikkan rentang antara 10‐year German bunds terhadap obligasi AS, yang
kemudian berimbas pada meningkatnya minat investor pada dollar AS.
• Harga emas dunia berhasil menguat terhadap dollar AS didukung oleh fokus investor pada tekanan inflasi, namun prospek ekonomi yang
lebih optimis dan ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga menahan laju kinerja logam mulia tersebut. Minat beli investor terhadap aset safehaven
termasuk emas mengalami tekanan seiring kenaikan bursa saham Wall Street ke level tertinggi sejak medio 2008, ditambah dengan
naiknya imbal hasil obligasi AS dan kekhawatiran pada level suku bunga rendah The Fed yang akan memicu tekanan inflasi. Harga spot
emas <XAU=> naik 0.2% ke 1,348.90 USD per troy ounce.
• Harga minyak dunia turun tajam pada Senin 07 februari karena kekhawatiran tentang gejolak politik Mesir akan mempengaruhi arus
pengiriman minyak di wilayah Timur‐Tengah. Harga minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Maret <CLc1> turun 1,55 USD ke 87,48 USD per
barel, setelah sempat mencatat level terendah di 87,18 USD per barel. Sementara itu harga minyak ICE London Brent untuk pengiriman
Maret <LCOc1> turun 58 sen ke 99,25 USD per barel.
Oil falls as Egypt and supply disruption fears ease
A new cabinet met in Egypt and the government and opponents demanding change held talks, easing investor fear that the unrest started in Tunisia could affect oil producer countries.
Crude oil inventories in the United States were expected to have risen last week, with gasoline stockpiles also building, according to a Reuters survey of analysts on Monday.<EIA/s>
U.S. crude oil for March delivery fell $1.55 to settle at $87.48 a barrel, with an intraday low of $87.18 struck in post-settlement trading.
In London, ICE Brent crude for March fell 58 cents to settle at $99.25 a barrel, off its $100.90 intraday peak.
Total U.S. crude trading volume was 640,000 lots, the lowest level since January 3, according to Reuters data.
Brent trading volume was above 596,000 lots, 37 percent above the 30-day average, Reuters data showed.
The U.S. crude price weakness helped Brent crude's price premium widen to more than $11 a barrel.
U.S. gasoline futures were supported by reports of refinery problems and their failure to push under technical support around the $2.42 a gallon level.
Heating oil losses were limited by a forecast for above-normal heating oil demand.
"Oil prices fell as Egypt did not continue to descend into chaos and the employment number was a disappointing jumbled mess," Phil Flynn, an analyst at PFGBest Research in Chicago, said in a note.
Despite optimism about economic recovery that has driven equities markets above late-summer 2008 levels, Friday's U.S. jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls grew by only 36,000 in January, well below forecasts, though the overall unemployment rate fell.
EGYPT IN FOCUS BUT FEARS EASE
President Hosni Mubarak's new cabinet held its first full meeting since political protests and unrest started nearly two weeks ago. Mubarak has refused calls to end his 30-year presidency before the September election.
There have been no reports of disruptions to Suez Canal shipping or flows on the Suez-Mediterranean pipeline that brings oil from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean.
OPEC has resisted the idea that the recent oil price jump should prompt the producer group to reconsider its production targets.
A member of Kuwait's Supreme Petroleum Council said prices could exceed $110 a barrel if political unrest in Egypt continues. [ID:nLDE71505M] Iran's oil minister said OPEC did not need an emergency meeting, even if oil rose to $120 a barrel. [ID:nMOS637004]
U.S. crude stocks rose 2.59 million barrels in the week to January 28, according to the most recent report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Inventories have risen to record levels at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate, the New York Mercantile Exchange's light sweet crude benchmark.
The high storage levels at Cushing have been encouraged by a strong contango condition, where front-month crude values are lower than prices for months farther out.
The deficit of U.S. front-month March crude to the April contract was above $3 a barrel and was as wide as $4.35 on Monday, according to Reuters data.
"We continue to view this curve weakness as symptomatic of a mounting supply at Cushing," Jim Ritterbusch, president at Ritterbusch & Associates in Galena, Illinois, said in a note.
Monday, February 7, 2011
Headline News 07.02.11
US & GLOBAL
• Indeks saham S&P500 membukukan performa mingguan terbaik dalam 9‐pekan terakhir dan meningkatkan minat beli pada saham‐saham defensif
meskipun masih terdapat kekhawatiran pada perkembangan kondisi Mesir. Tanda‐tanda pemulihan ekonomi dan earning korporasi yang membaik telah
mendorong peforma bursa dalam sepekan terakhir meskipun volume perdagangan yang rendah dan performa saham‐saham unggulan yang kurang
menggembirakan sedikit meredakan minat beli investor. Data sektor ketenagakerjaan bulan Januari tidak berdampak signifikan pada pergerakan bursa
karena penciptaan lapangan kerja masih rendah namun disisi lain tingkat pengangguran turun tajam. Indeks saham Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 0,25% ke
12,092.15, S&P500 <. SPX> menguat 0,29% ke 1,310.87 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 0,56% ke 2,769.30. Dalam sepekan terakhir, Dow Jones naik 2,3%, S&P500
naik 2,7% dan Nasdaq naik 3,1%.
• Dollar AS berhasil menguat terhadap euro didukung oleh naiknya imbal hasil Treasury AS menyusul turunnya tingkat pengangguran AS yang semakin
mempercerah prospek pemulihan ekonomi AS. Euro turun kelevel terendah 1.3543 setelah sempat sempat mencapai level tertinggi 3‐bulan di 1,3862.
Hingga akhir sesi New York, euro tercatat turun 0,3% ke 1.3585 <EUR=>. Ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga ECB yang akan mendahului The Fed telah berhasil
mengangkat performa euro terhadap dollar AS hingga 8% sejak mencapai level terendah 4‐bulan di 1,29 pada 10 Januari silam. Namun demikian Presiden
ECB Jean‐Claude Trichet dengan pernyataannya yang menegaskan inflasi zona euro masih cukup terkendali mulai meredam potensi kenaikan suku bunga
dalam waktu dekat.
• Turunnya tingkat pengangguran AS pada Januari yang saat ini mencapai 9% dari total angkatan kerja AS jauh lebih rendah dari data Desember 9.4%,
mendorong kenaikan imbal hasil obligasi AS dan menguatkan prediksi investor akan kenaikan suku bunga AS setidaknya pada akhir tahun ini. Dollar AS
tercatat menguat 0,7% persen terhadap yen ke 82.18 <JPY=> dan menguat 1% terhadap Swiss franc ke 0,9545 franc <CHF=>. Namun demikian The Fed
masih tetap dovish dan Ben Bernanke pekan lalu menegaskan bahwa pemulihan ekonomi masih rentan dan memerlukan bantuan bank sentral.
• Harga emas turun pada sesi Jumat 04 Februari tertekan kenaikan kurs dollar AS dan minimnya minat beli investor pada aset safe haven menyusul rumor
kepastian mundurnya Presiden Mesir Hosni Mubarak. Harga spot emas <XAU=> turun 0,3% ke 1,348.59 USD per troy ounce. Dalam sepekan terakhir emas
mencatat kenaikan mingguan pertama dalam tahun 2011 ini dikuatkan oleh proyeksi kebijakan moneter The Fed yang masih cukup akomodatif dalam
beberapa waktu kedepan.
• Harga minyak dunia turun hampir 2% menyusul meningkatnya spekulasi kemunduran Presiden Hosni Mubarak yang memicu aksi ambil untug pelaku pasar.
Di London, minyak mentah ICE Brent untuk pengiriman Maret <LCOc1> turun 1,93 USD ke level 99,83 USD dari intraday high di 102,48 USD. Sementara
crude oil AS untuk pengiriman Maret <CLc1> turun 1,51 USD di 89,03 USD per barel.
• Ketegangan di kawasan Timur Tengah memunculkan ancaman terbaru bagi pemulihan ekonomi global yaitu meningkatnya tekanan inflasi. Harga minyak
Brent London sempat mencapai level 103.37 USD per barel yang merupakan level tertinggi sejak September 2008 dan harga bahan pangan dunia
berdasarkan FAO untuk Januari dilaporkan terus beranjak naik, kondisi mana diperburuk oleh badai salju ekstrim di Amerika dan banjir bandang di Australia.
JP Morgan memperkirakan jika harga minyak terus menguat hingga 10% maka kondisi tersebut akan memangkas GDP global sebesar 0.25%.
• Meningkatnya tekanan inflasi telah menjadi perhatian para pengambil keputusan dimana salah satunya adalah ECB yang memperkirakan tekanan inflasi
akan terus menguat setelah inflasi pada Januari naik ke 2.4% yang merupakan level tertinggi sejak 15‐bulan terakhir. Inggris juga menghadapi tekanan inflasi
paling tinggi sejak 8‐bulan terakhir ketika pada Desember tercatat naik 3.7% jauh melebihi target BoE yang hanya 2%.
• Indeks saham S&P500 membukukan performa mingguan terbaik dalam 9‐pekan terakhir dan meningkatkan minat beli pada saham‐saham defensif
meskipun masih terdapat kekhawatiran pada perkembangan kondisi Mesir. Tanda‐tanda pemulihan ekonomi dan earning korporasi yang membaik telah
mendorong peforma bursa dalam sepekan terakhir meskipun volume perdagangan yang rendah dan performa saham‐saham unggulan yang kurang
menggembirakan sedikit meredakan minat beli investor. Data sektor ketenagakerjaan bulan Januari tidak berdampak signifikan pada pergerakan bursa
karena penciptaan lapangan kerja masih rendah namun disisi lain tingkat pengangguran turun tajam. Indeks saham Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 0,25% ke
12,092.15, S&P500 <. SPX> menguat 0,29% ke 1,310.87 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> naik 0,56% ke 2,769.30. Dalam sepekan terakhir, Dow Jones naik 2,3%, S&P500
naik 2,7% dan Nasdaq naik 3,1%.
• Dollar AS berhasil menguat terhadap euro didukung oleh naiknya imbal hasil Treasury AS menyusul turunnya tingkat pengangguran AS yang semakin
mempercerah prospek pemulihan ekonomi AS. Euro turun kelevel terendah 1.3543 setelah sempat sempat mencapai level tertinggi 3‐bulan di 1,3862.
Hingga akhir sesi New York, euro tercatat turun 0,3% ke 1.3585 <EUR=>. Ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga ECB yang akan mendahului The Fed telah berhasil
mengangkat performa euro terhadap dollar AS hingga 8% sejak mencapai level terendah 4‐bulan di 1,29 pada 10 Januari silam. Namun demikian Presiden
ECB Jean‐Claude Trichet dengan pernyataannya yang menegaskan inflasi zona euro masih cukup terkendali mulai meredam potensi kenaikan suku bunga
dalam waktu dekat.
• Turunnya tingkat pengangguran AS pada Januari yang saat ini mencapai 9% dari total angkatan kerja AS jauh lebih rendah dari data Desember 9.4%,
mendorong kenaikan imbal hasil obligasi AS dan menguatkan prediksi investor akan kenaikan suku bunga AS setidaknya pada akhir tahun ini. Dollar AS
tercatat menguat 0,7% persen terhadap yen ke 82.18 <JPY=> dan menguat 1% terhadap Swiss franc ke 0,9545 franc <CHF=>. Namun demikian The Fed
masih tetap dovish dan Ben Bernanke pekan lalu menegaskan bahwa pemulihan ekonomi masih rentan dan memerlukan bantuan bank sentral.
• Harga emas turun pada sesi Jumat 04 Februari tertekan kenaikan kurs dollar AS dan minimnya minat beli investor pada aset safe haven menyusul rumor
kepastian mundurnya Presiden Mesir Hosni Mubarak. Harga spot emas <XAU=> turun 0,3% ke 1,348.59 USD per troy ounce. Dalam sepekan terakhir emas
mencatat kenaikan mingguan pertama dalam tahun 2011 ini dikuatkan oleh proyeksi kebijakan moneter The Fed yang masih cukup akomodatif dalam
beberapa waktu kedepan.
• Harga minyak dunia turun hampir 2% menyusul meningkatnya spekulasi kemunduran Presiden Hosni Mubarak yang memicu aksi ambil untug pelaku pasar.
Di London, minyak mentah ICE Brent untuk pengiriman Maret <LCOc1> turun 1,93 USD ke level 99,83 USD dari intraday high di 102,48 USD. Sementara
crude oil AS untuk pengiriman Maret <CLc1> turun 1,51 USD di 89,03 USD per barel.
• Ketegangan di kawasan Timur Tengah memunculkan ancaman terbaru bagi pemulihan ekonomi global yaitu meningkatnya tekanan inflasi. Harga minyak
Brent London sempat mencapai level 103.37 USD per barel yang merupakan level tertinggi sejak September 2008 dan harga bahan pangan dunia
berdasarkan FAO untuk Januari dilaporkan terus beranjak naik, kondisi mana diperburuk oleh badai salju ekstrim di Amerika dan banjir bandang di Australia.
JP Morgan memperkirakan jika harga minyak terus menguat hingga 10% maka kondisi tersebut akan memangkas GDP global sebesar 0.25%.
• Meningkatnya tekanan inflasi telah menjadi perhatian para pengambil keputusan dimana salah satunya adalah ECB yang memperkirakan tekanan inflasi
akan terus menguat setelah inflasi pada Januari naik ke 2.4% yang merupakan level tertinggi sejak 15‐bulan terakhir. Inggris juga menghadapi tekanan inflasi
paling tinggi sejak 8‐bulan terakhir ketika pada Desember tercatat naik 3.7% jauh melebihi target BoE yang hanya 2%.
Mubarak still in power as government and opposition talk
The banned Muslim Brotherhood was among the groups who met with officials over the weekend, a sign of how much has already changed in 13 days that have rocked the Arab world and alarmed Western powers.
But opposition figures said their core demand that Mubarak must go immediately was not met. Some expressed concern that the government was playing for time in the hope that Mubarak would hang on until September, when his current term expires.
People in central Tahrir Square, focal point of an uprising that has seen hundreds of thousands of protesters take to the streets and clashes in which an estimated 300 people have been killed, said they would intensify their battle to oust him.
After nightfall Sunday, soldiers fired shots in the air to try to disperse the crowd. But the demonstrators, who on Saturday lay down in front of army tanks, remained and the troops abandoned the attempt.
The nation got back to work Sunday and banks reopened after a week-long crisis with lines of customers seeking access to their accounts.
Government ministers will hold their first full cabinet meeting Monday since Mubarak reshuffled his cabinet on January 28 in an attempt to mollify protesters enraged by years of corruption, economic hardship and political oppression.
But it was far from certain that the situation had been defused, despite appeals from longtime Mubarak backer the United States for an "orderly transition" to more democratic rule.
The presence at the talks of the banned Muslim Brotherhood, whose members have for years been repressed by Mubarak's feared security forces, was a significant development.
The demonstrators around Tahrir Square, largely young and secular, lack their clear organization and leadership.
The government said after the meeting, chaired by Vice President Omar Suleiman, they agreed to draft a road map for talks, indicating Mubarak would stay in power to oversee change.
It would also move to release jailed activists, guarantee press freedom and lift Egypt's emergency laws. A committee was set up to study constitutional issues.
But the opposition said the government failed to meet their demand for a complete overhaul of the political system.
Abdel Monem Aboul Fotouh, a senior Brotherhood figure, said the government statement represented "good intentions but does not include any solid changes."
Opposition activists reject any compromise which would see Mubarak hand over power to Suleiman but also serve out his term -- essentially relying on the old authoritarian system to pave the way to full civilian democracy and saving his face.
Nobel peace laureate Mohamed ElBaradei, who has emerged as a figurehead for the opposition coalition, criticized the fledgling negotiations and said he was not invited.
"It is all managed by the military and that is part of the problem." he told NBC television in the United States.
Gamal Soltan, editor of the al-Mesryoon newspaper, said the protesters would not leave before their demands were met.
"The problem is that the regime's hesitancy in taking serious steps will lead to complications and the increase of the popular demonstrations and possibly force an army intervention," he said.
However, former cabinet member Rachid Mohamed Rachid, said: "I believe the presence of Mubarak in the next phase of transition for the next few months is very critical."
ANTI-AMERICAN
The United States, which had bankrolled Mubarak and the army to the tune of $1.3 billion a year, was taken by surprise by the uprising against a ruler it saw as a bastion against Islamic militancy and a friend, albeit a reluctant one, of Israel.
It has called for gradual change and an orderly transition but has given confused messages about when exactly it thought Mubarak should step down.
In Washington Sunday, President Barack Obama said he believed Egypt was "not going to go back to what it was," and that the time for change was now. But in an interview with Fox News, he said only Mubarak knew what he was going to do.
Obama also said he believed the Muslim Brotherhood was only one faction in Egypt and that strains of their ideology were anti-American -- comments that could the anger the powerful Islamist group.
Thousands of people gathered in Tahrir Square again on Sunday but in the evening, soldiers fired shots in the air in a failed attempt to disperse the crowd.
"The coward is a coward and the brave is a brave and we will not leave the square," said Sameh Ali, a protester in his 20s.
But many Egyptians, even some who joined the demonstrations, say they are desperate for a return to normal life.
Shops have been closed, making it hard for people to stock up on basic goods. Some prices have risen.
The currency could face pressure Monday when banks outside the Middle East reopen after the weekend. The pound fell Sunday when trade resumed in Egypt but the drop was less sharp than many traders had expected as the central bank appeared to support the currency.
Another confidence test will be a central bank auction of 15 billion pounds ($2.6 billion) of short-term Treasury bills, postponed from last week. The stock market is still closed.
Market could rally on profits, technical
NEW YORK |
NEW YORK (Reuters) - With earnings continuing to surprise on the upside and minimal technical resistance ahead, the bears may have to wait a bit longer for the much-anticipated end to the current stock rally.The VIX, a gauge of investor anxiety, dropped last week despite unrest in the Middle East and oil prices are basically unchanged from two weeks ago. After posting its best week in the past nine last week, the S&P 500 has actually seen oversold levels tick lower.
"I expect the market to continue to rally despite the fact the economic news is sluggish in the jobs front," said Michael Yoshikami, chief investment strategist at YCMNet Advisors in Walnut Creek, California.
Government data showed Friday the U.S. economy created 36,000 jobs in January, far fewer than expected, but the unemployment rate fell to its lowest since April 2009. Economists agreed a recovery in the labor market was proceeding but not gaining speed.
Upbeat signals in the economy, coupled with a positive bias in the current earnings season, should continue to propel equities higher.
More than 70 percent of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings above estimates so far, according to Thomson Reuters data. Investors expect aggregate earnings rose 37 percent in the last quarter, the highest estimate for that period in more than 10 months.
"We believe corporate earnings will continue to recover as companies are more efficient and economies bounce back," Yoshikami said.
FEW HURDLES AHEAD
The energy, industrials and technology sectors are "trading well into overbought territory," according to a report from Bespoke Investment Group. But two recent weeks of declines are helping ease overall selling pressure, and the rally that started in September shows no signs of weakness.
"This market has been really eating up resistance levels as an every week event," said John Kosar, director of research at Asbury Research in Chicago. "We targeted 1,313 for (last) week as a near-term inflection point, and we haven't broken it yet."
The target coincides with the benchmark's highest level in August 2008. Chartists have mentioned the 1,360 area, the 76.4 retracement of the S&P's downhill move from late 2007 to March 2009, as one of the few technical hurdles the index faces before hitting 1,400.
The S&P has risen 25 percent since the start of September, which has led to a lack of confidence and calls for a pullback. Still, the CBOE volatility index .VIX fell 20.5 percent this week after a near 30 percent spike in the two previous weeks.
"There's a healthy degree of skepticism and many people are still calling for a correction," said Richard Ross, a global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson in New York.
THIN DATA CALENDAR
This week is slow in terms of economic indicators, with the preliminary reading of the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment as the highlight of the week.
The reading is expected to tick up to 75 from last month's 74.2, according to a Reuters poll.
"There's enough of bits and pieces of data that if they are in the aggregate positive, they can create an (upturn) in the market," said Wasif Latif, vice president of equity investments at USAA Investment Management in San Antonio, Texas.
Some investors mentioned a spike in oil prices as one of the possible headwinds for the economic recovery, and the unrest in the Middle East as an important variable for equities.
As hundreds of thousands of Egyptians marched in Cairo on Friday to demand an immediate end to President Hosni Mubarak's rule, Brent oil settled below $100 a barrel for the first time in a week. U.S. crude for March delivery fell $1.51 to settle at $89.03 a barrel.
"If oil prices continue to rise and Middle East chaos spreads, you will potentially see a headwind develop for the global economy and that will affect the stock market," YCMNet's Yoshikami said. "Oil at $110 barrel becomes a significant headwind for the economy."
FED REASSURES INVESTORS
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke offered a moderately more optimistic assessment of the economy's prospects than in previous remarks, although he made clear the recovery still needs support from the Fed.
"As long as the Fed is indicating they will remain supportive and accommodating, that will continue to provide some degree of support to the market," said USAA's Latif. "Investors will see weakness in the market as a reason to buy."
Friday, February 4, 2011
Headline News 04.01.11
US & GLOBAL
• Bursa saham AS kembali menguat pada sesi Kamis 03 Januari dimotori kenaikan saham‐saham ritel dan jaringan toserba yang meningkat menjelang rilis data sektor
ketenagakerjaan AS akhir pekan ini. Data menunjukkan chain‐stores sales mengalami kenaikan 4.8% selama Januari, seiring dengan peningkatan pada aktifitas sektor jasa dan
menurunnya angka jobless claims yang mendukung proyeksi pemulihan ekonomi. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 20,29 poin atau 0,17% ke 12,062.26, S&P500 <SPX.> naik 0,24% ke
1,307.10 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> menguat 0,16% ke 2,753.88.
• Euro melemah terhadap mata uang utama dunia lainnya setelah pernyataan Presiden ECB ‐ Jean‐Claude Trichet yang menurunkan ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga ECB dalam
waktu dekat. Berbicara setelah sidang ECB yang memutuskan untuk mempertahankan suku bunga pada level 1%, Trichet mengatakan ekspektasi inflasi "firmly anchored" dan
tekanan inflasi dalam jangka menengah hingga jangka panjang masih dapat terkendali. Komentar tersebut mengecewakan investor yang mengharapkan pernyataan yang lebih
hawkish berkaitan dengan data inflasi Uni‐Eropa yang akhir‐akhir ini menunjukkan peningkatan. Ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga ECB yang akan hadir lebih cepat daripada The Fed
telah mengangkat performa euro dalam beberapa pekan terakhir.
• Hingga akhir sesi New York, euro turun 1,2% ke 1,3633 <EUR=>, dan melemah 1,2% terhadap yen ke 111,22 yen <EURJPY=> dan merosot 0.99% terhadap sterling. Sementara itu
dollar AS stagnan terhadap yen ke 81,58 yen <JPY=>, sedangkan indeks dollar AS terhadap mata uang utama dunia lain yang naik 0,8% ke 77,773 <DXY.>.
• Ketua Federal Reserve ‐ Ben Bernanke mengatakan hari Kamis bahwa meskipun data ekonomi AS membaik, namun ekonomi tetap membutuhkan dukungan dari bank sentral.
Ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga oleh The Fed setidaknya pada akhir tahun ini dikalangan investor saat ini mengalami peningkatan, terutama sebagai upaya The Fed untuk menjaga
tekanan inflasi. Turut mendasari ekspektasi investor tersebut adalah data yang menunjukkan aktifitas sektor jasa AS pada Januari berekspansi dengan akselerasi tercepat sejak
Agustus 2005 sementara jobless claims turun tajam.
• Harga emas dunia naik lebih dari 1% ditopang maraknya pembelian institusi keuangan dan meningkatnya minat beli investor pada aset safe‐haven terdorong oleh berlanjutnya
kerusuhan di Mesir. Emas juga diuntungkan dari pernyataan terbaru oleh Bernanke, yang mengatakan bahwa pemulihan ekonomi AS masih membutuhkan bantuan dari Fed.
Harga spot emas <XAU=> naik 1,3% ke 1,353.55 USD per troy ounce.
• Sementara itu disisi lain harga minyak dunia justru anjlok tertekan penguatan nilai tukar dollar AS yang menurunkan minat investasi pada aset komoditas berdenominasi dollar.
Harga minyak mentah Brent untuk pengiriman Maret <LCOH1> turun 58 sen ke 101,76 USD per barel setelah sempat naik ke 103,37 USD per barel yang merupakan level tertinggi
sejak 26 September 2008. Sedangkan harga minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Maret <CLH1> turun 32 sen ke 90.54.
• Outlook (Jumat, 04 / Februari / 2011): Bursa saham Asia kemungkinan akan terdorong sentimen positif saham‐saham Wall Street yang menguat seiring cerahnya sinyal pemulihan
ekonomi AS yang menutupi kekhawatiran pada kondisi Mesir. Liburan Tahun Baru Imlek akan menurunkan volume perdagangan Asia seiring liburnya dengan pasar Cina, Hong
Kong, Singapura dan Korea Selatan.
• Bursa saham AS kembali menguat pada sesi Kamis 03 Januari dimotori kenaikan saham‐saham ritel dan jaringan toserba yang meningkat menjelang rilis data sektor
ketenagakerjaan AS akhir pekan ini. Data menunjukkan chain‐stores sales mengalami kenaikan 4.8% selama Januari, seiring dengan peningkatan pada aktifitas sektor jasa dan
menurunnya angka jobless claims yang mendukung proyeksi pemulihan ekonomi. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 20,29 poin atau 0,17% ke 12,062.26, S&P500 <SPX.> naik 0,24% ke
1,307.10 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> menguat 0,16% ke 2,753.88.
• Euro melemah terhadap mata uang utama dunia lainnya setelah pernyataan Presiden ECB ‐ Jean‐Claude Trichet yang menurunkan ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga ECB dalam
waktu dekat. Berbicara setelah sidang ECB yang memutuskan untuk mempertahankan suku bunga pada level 1%, Trichet mengatakan ekspektasi inflasi "firmly anchored" dan
tekanan inflasi dalam jangka menengah hingga jangka panjang masih dapat terkendali. Komentar tersebut mengecewakan investor yang mengharapkan pernyataan yang lebih
hawkish berkaitan dengan data inflasi Uni‐Eropa yang akhir‐akhir ini menunjukkan peningkatan. Ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga ECB yang akan hadir lebih cepat daripada The Fed
telah mengangkat performa euro dalam beberapa pekan terakhir.
• Hingga akhir sesi New York, euro turun 1,2% ke 1,3633 <EUR=>, dan melemah 1,2% terhadap yen ke 111,22 yen <EURJPY=> dan merosot 0.99% terhadap sterling. Sementara itu
dollar AS stagnan terhadap yen ke 81,58 yen <JPY=>, sedangkan indeks dollar AS terhadap mata uang utama dunia lain yang naik 0,8% ke 77,773 <DXY.>.
• Ketua Federal Reserve ‐ Ben Bernanke mengatakan hari Kamis bahwa meskipun data ekonomi AS membaik, namun ekonomi tetap membutuhkan dukungan dari bank sentral.
Ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga oleh The Fed setidaknya pada akhir tahun ini dikalangan investor saat ini mengalami peningkatan, terutama sebagai upaya The Fed untuk menjaga
tekanan inflasi. Turut mendasari ekspektasi investor tersebut adalah data yang menunjukkan aktifitas sektor jasa AS pada Januari berekspansi dengan akselerasi tercepat sejak
Agustus 2005 sementara jobless claims turun tajam.
• Harga emas dunia naik lebih dari 1% ditopang maraknya pembelian institusi keuangan dan meningkatnya minat beli investor pada aset safe‐haven terdorong oleh berlanjutnya
kerusuhan di Mesir. Emas juga diuntungkan dari pernyataan terbaru oleh Bernanke, yang mengatakan bahwa pemulihan ekonomi AS masih membutuhkan bantuan dari Fed.
Harga spot emas <XAU=> naik 1,3% ke 1,353.55 USD per troy ounce.
• Sementara itu disisi lain harga minyak dunia justru anjlok tertekan penguatan nilai tukar dollar AS yang menurunkan minat investasi pada aset komoditas berdenominasi dollar.
Harga minyak mentah Brent untuk pengiriman Maret <LCOH1> turun 58 sen ke 101,76 USD per barel setelah sempat naik ke 103,37 USD per barel yang merupakan level tertinggi
sejak 26 September 2008. Sedangkan harga minyak mentah AS untuk pengiriman Maret <CLH1> turun 32 sen ke 90.54.
• Outlook (Jumat, 04 / Februari / 2011): Bursa saham Asia kemungkinan akan terdorong sentimen positif saham‐saham Wall Street yang menguat seiring cerahnya sinyal pemulihan
ekonomi AS yang menutupi kekhawatiran pada kondisi Mesir. Liburan Tahun Baru Imlek akan menurunkan volume perdagangan Asia seiring liburnya dengan pasar Cina, Hong
Kong, Singapura dan Korea Selatan.
Oil falls from 28-month high as dollar rises
NEW YORK |
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil fell on Thursday as a stronger dollar pulled crude off a 28-month high that was struck on concern unrest in Egypt could spread and disrupt oil shipments from the Middle East.The euro fell broadly against the dollar after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet threw cold water on market expectations euro zone interest rates would rise anytime soon.
Brent crude fell 73 cents to $101.61 at 1:21 p.m. ET. Early in the session it rose to $103.37, the highest level since September 26, 2008.
U.S. crude for March, dropped 60 cents to $90.26 a barrel, sliding from a session high of $92.05.
Further support for the dollar came from positive U.S. economic data on jobs, services and nonfarm productivity.
"Crude prices are down on U.S. economic data and word from the European Central Bank that it will maintain low interest rates," said Chris Dillman, analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.
Prices were also weighed down by data from industry tracker Genscape showing crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point for the U.S. oil futures contract, hit a record high this week.
Rising inventories at Cushing have helped pressure U.S. crude prices to a steep $11 a barrel discount to Brent.
The International Energy Agency told the U.S. Congress on Thursday that stronger-than-expected demand from rebounding economies as well unrest in Arab countries helped pushed Brent prices above $100 a barrel.
Brent, the benchmark for crude sales in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia, earlier Thursday topped $103 a barrel as the unrest in Egypt escalated, with pro- and anti-government supporters locked in violent clashes.
The crisis has raised concerns of a disruption to supply of Middle East oil shipped through Egypt and of unrest spreading across the Middle East and North Africa, which combined produce more than a third of the world's oil.
In Yemen, tens of thousands squared off in peaceful protests for and against the government during an opposition-led "Day of Rage," a day after President Ali Abdullah Saleh offered to step down in 2013.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Headline News 03.02.11
US & GLOBAL
• Bursa saham AS gagal melanjutkan penguatannya berkaitan dengan faktor teknikal yang kemudian menahan berlanjutnya penguatan bursa,
investor juga cenderung enggan mengambil posisi besar menyambut rilis data sektor ketenagakerjaan AS akhir pekan ini. Investor terus mengawasi
perkembangan politik di Mesir dan kekhawatiran akan menyebarnya ke negara‐negara lain di kawasan Timur‐Tengah dan Afrika telah menekan
laju bursa ekuitas global dalam beberapa sesi terakhir. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 0,02% ke 12,041.97, indeks S&P500 <SPX.> anjlok 0,27% ke
1,304.03 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> turun 0,04% ke 2,750.16.
• Euro yang sempat menembus level tertinggi dalam 2‐1/2‐bulan terakhir terhadap dollar AS, ditutup lebih rendah 0.2% ke 1.3804 menyusul naiknya
eskalasi kerusuhan di Mesir, meskipun proyeksi uptrend pada mata uang tunggal Uni‐Eropa tersebut masih bertahan seiring ekspektasi tingginya
inflasi kawasan. Euro sempat menguat ke level 1,3862 yang merupakan level tertinggi sejak November, sebelum beringsut melemah tertekan
pernyataan seorang pejabat pemerintah Jerman yang mengatakan, Berlin akan menentang kemungkinan pembelian obligasi negara‐negara yang
bermasalah oleh dana penyelamatan Uni‐Eropa. Badai musim dingin yang ekstrim di kawasan Midwest dan Northeast AS juga disebut sebagai
faktor yang menurunkan volume perdagangan, sementara itu bentrokan di Mesir antara pendukung dan penentang Presiden Hosni Mubarak
menaikkan ketidakpastian pada kondisi pasar. Dollar AS mencatat keuntungan tipis terhadap mata uang utama dunia setelah data ADP
Employment untuk Januari menunjukkan adanya pertambahan 187.000 tenaga kerja sektor swasta yang melebihi perkiraan analis sebelumnya.
Dollar AS tercatat menguat 0,3% ke 81,56 yen <JPY=> dan naik 0,5% terhadap Swiss franc ke 0,9398 franc <CHF=>.
• Harga emas turun 0,5% menyusul laporan ADP Employment yang menggembirakan dan kondisi politik Timur‐Tengah yang relatif stabil yang
kemudian mengalihkan minat investor pada aset beresiko tinggi dan sebaliknya menurunkan permintaan aset safe haven. Harga spot emas <XAU=>
turun 0,5% menjadi 1,334.40 USD per ounce.
• Harga minyak dunia naik pada Rabu 02 Februari karena bertahannya kekhawatiran bahwa pergolakan di Mesir bisa menyebar ke negara lain di
kawasan Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara, yang merupakan sumber dari 1/2 pasokan minyak mentah dunia. Harga minyak mentar AS untuk
pengiriman Maret <CLH1> ditutup menguat 9sen lebih tinggi ke 90,86 USD per barel, sementara harga minyak mentah ICE Brent untuk pengiriman
Maret <LCOH1> menguat 60 sen ke 102,34 USD per barel.
• Bursa saham AS gagal melanjutkan penguatannya berkaitan dengan faktor teknikal yang kemudian menahan berlanjutnya penguatan bursa,
investor juga cenderung enggan mengambil posisi besar menyambut rilis data sektor ketenagakerjaan AS akhir pekan ini. Investor terus mengawasi
perkembangan politik di Mesir dan kekhawatiran akan menyebarnya ke negara‐negara lain di kawasan Timur‐Tengah dan Afrika telah menekan
laju bursa ekuitas global dalam beberapa sesi terakhir. Indeks Dow Jones <. DJI> naik 0,02% ke 12,041.97, indeks S&P500 <SPX.> anjlok 0,27% ke
1,304.03 dan Nasdaq <. IXIC> turun 0,04% ke 2,750.16.
• Euro yang sempat menembus level tertinggi dalam 2‐1/2‐bulan terakhir terhadap dollar AS, ditutup lebih rendah 0.2% ke 1.3804 menyusul naiknya
eskalasi kerusuhan di Mesir, meskipun proyeksi uptrend pada mata uang tunggal Uni‐Eropa tersebut masih bertahan seiring ekspektasi tingginya
inflasi kawasan. Euro sempat menguat ke level 1,3862 yang merupakan level tertinggi sejak November, sebelum beringsut melemah tertekan
pernyataan seorang pejabat pemerintah Jerman yang mengatakan, Berlin akan menentang kemungkinan pembelian obligasi negara‐negara yang
bermasalah oleh dana penyelamatan Uni‐Eropa. Badai musim dingin yang ekstrim di kawasan Midwest dan Northeast AS juga disebut sebagai
faktor yang menurunkan volume perdagangan, sementara itu bentrokan di Mesir antara pendukung dan penentang Presiden Hosni Mubarak
menaikkan ketidakpastian pada kondisi pasar. Dollar AS mencatat keuntungan tipis terhadap mata uang utama dunia setelah data ADP
Employment untuk Januari menunjukkan adanya pertambahan 187.000 tenaga kerja sektor swasta yang melebihi perkiraan analis sebelumnya.
Dollar AS tercatat menguat 0,3% ke 81,56 yen <JPY=> dan naik 0,5% terhadap Swiss franc ke 0,9398 franc <CHF=>.
• Harga emas turun 0,5% menyusul laporan ADP Employment yang menggembirakan dan kondisi politik Timur‐Tengah yang relatif stabil yang
kemudian mengalihkan minat investor pada aset beresiko tinggi dan sebaliknya menurunkan permintaan aset safe haven. Harga spot emas <XAU=>
turun 0,5% menjadi 1,334.40 USD per ounce.
• Harga minyak dunia naik pada Rabu 02 Februari karena bertahannya kekhawatiran bahwa pergolakan di Mesir bisa menyebar ke negara lain di
kawasan Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara, yang merupakan sumber dari 1/2 pasokan minyak mentah dunia. Harga minyak mentar AS untuk
pengiriman Maret <CLH1> ditutup menguat 9sen lebih tinggi ke 90,86 USD per barel, sementara harga minyak mentah ICE Brent untuk pengiriman
Maret <LCOH1> menguat 60 sen ke 102,34 USD per barel.
Brent crude approaches $103 as Egypt violence escalates
SINGAPORE |
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Brent crude approached $103 on Thursday after violent clashes in Egypt raised the prospect of further unrest across the Middle East, overshadowing the bearish effect of soaring gasoline inventories in top consumer the United States.ICE Brent crude for March rose as much as 29 cents to $102.63 a barrel, the highest intraday price since September 29, 2008, and was up 22 cents at $102.56 at 0245 GMT. U.S. crude for March rose 37 cents to $91.23.
"The chance of contagion to a country that is systemically important for oil markets still remains relatively low, but it's the combination of that possibility and the importance of oil flows from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal that is building a premium" into prices, said Ben Westmore, commodities economist at National Australia Bank.
Backers of President Hosni Mubarak, throwing petrol bombs, wielding sticks and charging on camels and horses, attacked protesters in Cairo on Wednesday after the army told reformists demanding the president quit to go home.
The crisis has also alarmed western governments who have regarded Mubarak as a bulwark of stability in a volatile region, and has raised the prospect of unrest spreading across the Middle East and North Africa, which combined produce more than a third of the world's oil supplies.
The appearance of Mubarak supporters on Cairo's streets and their clashes with protesters -- after days of relatively calm demonstrations -- complicated U.S. calculations for an orderly transition of power in Egypt.
So far, the unrest in Egypt has not affected traffic on the Suez Canal or flows on the Suez-Mediterranean (SUMED) oil pipeline. Egypt controls both the canal and the duct, which together moved over 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and oil products in 2009, the latest data available.
"Once the tensions there begin to moderate, then you will have the market focusing again on fundamentals. We still have this abundant supply, so there is definitely more downside than upside," Westmore added.
U.S. crude inventories rose 2.59 million barrels to 343.16 million barrels in the week to January 28, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, while stockpiles of gasoline surged by 6.15 million barrels to 236.23 million barrels, the highest level since 1993. <EIA/S>
Inventories at the key Cushing, Oklahoma terminal rose 667,000 barrels to 38.33 million barrels, a record. Cushing in PADD 2 is the delivery point for the New York Mercantile Exchange's benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude futures.
The glut is depressing the price of WTI relative to Brent, with the front-month contract of the U.S. benchmark more than $11 below the European marker. The spread last week ballooned to a near-record $12.50 a barrel.
A massive winter storm, meanwhile, brought parts of the U.S. Midwest to a standstill and delivered another wintry blow to the Northeast, the biggest market for heating oil.
The U.S. March heating oil contract settled 2.37 cents higher at $2.7807 a gallon, the highest for a front-month heating contract since October 2008. It extended gains on Thursday to $2.7868 a gallon.
In other markets, world shares struggled to eke out more gains on Wednesday as wariness over escalating violence in Egypt and rising oil prices muted optimism over the latest signs of a sustained global economic recovery.
The price of copper, a key industrial metal, hit a fresh record high Thursday on expectations of strong global demand.
The euro fell from a 2-1/2-month high against the dollar on Wednesday as tensions in Egypt escalated, though the euro zone single currency's uptrend stayed intact given signs of rising inflation in that area.
Traders also awaited data on U.S. non-farm payrolls for January due on Friday as an indication for the state of the economy and energy demand.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is likely to increase output by "more rather than less" in response to tensions in the Middle East, the chief economist of oil major BP (BP.L) told Reuters Insider Television on Wednesday.
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